It's gonna be a week

Oct 21, 2024

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Strap in for what's gonna be a week.

→ Election uncertainty in British Columbia. Plus, New Brunswick goes to the polls.

→ Another likely rate cut week at the Bank of Canada.

DRIVING THE DAY

CRISIS 101 — Stability is, for the moment, not a thing on Parliament Hill.

Two years of Liberal-NDP détente is in the rearview, pundits are writing off the prime minister and multiple crises are guaranteed to make headlines today.

MARCI SURKES, the prime minister's former executive director of policy and Cabinet affairs, predicts "volatility" will be the word of the week.

Surkes dropped a few other descriptors: highly unpredictable, uncertainty and drama.

"That's far from ideal for a governing party or any party in the Commons, frankly, that is interested in doing the business of Canadians," she told Playbook. "But that's the reality of where we are, and where we're going to be for the next week."

Surkes had two words of advice: "Buckle up."

— All the things: The business of the House chamber remains paralyzed.

The government is virtually unable to advance any priority legislation amid a Groundhog Day debate over a Conservative privilege motion (with a second one in the wings).

Some sort of Liberal caucus showdown is coming to a head Wednesday as Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU sends regrets to this week's meeting of Commonwealth government leaders in the South Pacific.

Then there's the perma-chatter about a Cabinet shuffle, which has to be on the minds of the nuclear core of PMO thinkers. A Fall Economic Statement is also in the works.

Not to mention a high-stakes diplomatic showdown with a hostile Indian government — and, of course, the churn of Cabinet business that doesn't pause when politics gets tricky.

It's a bit of a fix for Trudeau and Co.

— Raucous caucus: The PM won't be flying to Samoa this week, interrupting a regular stop amid a year packed with foreign travel (all of which was predicted in Playbook in January by StrategyCorp's GARRY KELLER and Enterprise Canada's MITCH HEIMPEL).

The Prime Minister's Office is working on an accelerated timeline to reassure anxious MPs there is a plan to beat PIERRE POILIEVRE. It's by now clear that months of off-the-record grumbling can't go on and on.

It's time to settle the unrest one way or another.

→ Showdown or nah: Over the weekend, PAUL WELLS poked holes in the rebel cause.

— Focus over everything: Surkes says senior PMO staff must delegate, delegate, delegate when they're fighting multiple fires.

"In a particularly heated moment, it is imperative for the Prime Minister's Office to be able to separate out who is working on the immediate crisis and who is able to keep focus on advancing the agenda," says Surkes.

— Triage the work: "You really can identify very quickly what are the core things that need to keep happening, and it does force a certain focus."

— Strap on the blinders: "If everyone gets caught in this world, there is no path out."

JUST HANGIN' AROUND — How's this for a coincidence?

MARK CARNEY spoke in long form with Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH on the must-see-these-days “Uncommons” pod.

Leave it to NES to cajole something resembling candor from forever-maybe candidate Carney about actually taking the leap into elected politics.

The pod release wasn't orchestrated for mischief. But Carney knows his audience.

— Quotable quotes: Asked if he'd run for office even if it meant sitting in opposition, Carney played coy. "You can't map these things out. Of course there's value in that," he said.

Of his experience, Carney added: "I understand how the world works. I know other world leaders. I know people who run some of the world's largest companies, and understand how they work."

Carney is occasionally compared to former Liberal leader MICHAEL IGNATIEFF — a worldly thinker who never mastered politics closer to home.

Erskine-Smith put the Iggy theory to Carney, who replied that he has a track record: "I've been as close to the political Arena as you can. I have been a public figure through crises in Canada and elsewhere around the world," he said. "I know how to deal with tough issues. And not just talk about them, but implement and get things done."

— CHRISTY CLARK: British Columbia's former premier mulled a potential future leadership run in iPolitics last week and Radio-Canada this morning.

Clark's name bounces around conversations about a post-Trudeau era, whenever the prime minister does step away from politics.

The questions that caveat all the Clark whispers: How's her French? Rad-Can's sources say she "has been taking French lessons for several months," with more to come.

A message from the Canadian Bankers Association:

Cyber criminals only need a few details—like your name, birth date, or social insurance number—to commit financial fraud. While banks work tirelessly to protect your information, you can take steps to stay safe online. Learn how to protect yourself and build resilience against cyber threats. Visit cba.ca for practical tips and toolkits on spotting scams.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no events on his public itinerary.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND has private meetings in Ottawa on her itinerary. She plans to attend question period.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to reporters in the West Block foyer before attending QP.

— Playbook hasn't seen public itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE or Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament virtually.

DULY NOTED

11 a.m. Trade Minister MARY NG and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE are at the House international trade committee to talk about protection of Canadian manufacturing sectors — including EVs, aluminum and steel — against Chinese imports and measures.

11 a.m. It's hot-seat time for CBC President/CEO CATHERINE TAIT and board chair MICHAEL GOLDBLOOM at the House heritage committee. On the agenda: senior management compensation.

11 a.m. NDP MP BONITA ZARRILLO will join flight attendants and union reps at a West Block media availability about her private member's bill meant to "end the unfair treatment of flight attendants in Canada by their employers."

In the provinces

BRITISH COLUMBIA — It's still not entirely clear who will form B.C.'s next government.

As results poured in across the province on Saturday evening, the trend emerged early: razor-thin margins in a handful of ridings would decide the winner. The final polls, which will only be counted starting Oct. 26, could flip the script entirely.

Two ridings triggered automatic recounts.

— What we know: DAVID EBY's BC NDP leads in 46 ridings. JOHN RUSTAD's Conservatives have an edge in 45. A majority takes 47. The Greens currently hold the balance of power with two seats.

The two main rivals have so far scooped up nearly equal shares of the popular vote: 44.6 percent for the NDP, 43.6 for the Conservatives.

— Today's headline: "Stay tuned."

POLITICO Canada contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER has his eye on two races that could decide who gets to be premier — once all the votes are actually counted.

102: Votes standing between the NDP and a majority win. In Surrey-Guildford, Conservative candidate HONVEER SINGH RANDHAWA leads NDP incumbent GARY BEGG by this slim margin. An NDP win would seal the majority.

119: Votes standing between the Conservatives and their first victory in B.C. in 96 years. They trail the NDP by this margin in two key ridings: Juan de Fuca-Malahat (23 votes) and Surrey City Centre (96 votes).

INSTA-ANALYSIS — Playbook checked in with MIKE MCKINNON, a senior consultant at Enterprise Canada and former adviser to NDP premiers who was up late as results came in.

McKinnon said Eby required a "very well executed campaign" to hold off a "strong change dynamic that is challenging incumbent governments across the country."

— Prediction: "Pending the final count of mail-in ballots, I expect the NDP will be able to make it work with the two Green MLAs because we’ve been in this position before."

— The alternative: "JOHN RUSTAD said he intends to bring the government down at the first opportunity, and I think that’s the last thing people want after a popular vote showing a progressive majority."

NEW BRUNSWICK — BLAINE HIGGS' quest for a third term as premier comes to a crescendo tonight. Polls close at 8 p.m. (that's 7 p.m. ET). 338Canada's Fournier reads the opinion polling tea leaves as voters cast their ballots.

— Can Higgs hold on? Limited polling data made publicly available favors SUSAN HOLT's Liberals, but we know from recent elections that Higgs' PCs enjoy a higher vote efficiency.

— As goes Saint John: A Mainstreet poll released Saturday puts the Liberals at 48 percent provincially, 10 points ahead of the PCs.

Last week, a Narrative Research poll of the province's three largest cities landed the PCs and Liberals in a statistical tie in Saint John. That result would represent a stunning 30-point swing in the city swept by the PCs in 2020.

THE CHALLENGERS — New Brunswick Liberals are creatures of tradition, as campaign manager KATIE DAVEY reminded Playbook in the race's final days.

Here's how Holt's senior team plans to wrap up the campaign.

— The night before: A final rally in Neguac carried on a decades-long streak. "As the story goes, LOUIS ROBICHAUD ’s first wife was from Neguac and after winning the 1963 election, no team has wanted to mess with tradition (and superstition)," Davey told us.

— E-Day sked: The central campaign team heads to swing ridings. Davey is in Saint John, where the party hopes to flip four seats.

— Party spot: "We’ll come back together at 8 p.m. to watch the results at the Crowne Plaza," she says.

That's another tradition — though a Holt win, which would send a woman to the premier's office for the first time, would be anything but.

For your radar

NO SURPRISES — The least dramatic announcement of the week will likely go down at the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

Governor TIFF MACKLEM is expected to cut the bank's policy interest rate for the fourth time in a row. Most analysts anticipate a 50 basis-point cut to 3.75 percent.

BMO's DOUG PORTER cautions Macklem not to move too quickly. CIBC's AVERY SHENFELD muses about the merits of a 75 basis-point cut. The BOC's Business Outlook Survey showed RBC's CLAIRE FAN all she needed to agree with the consensus. TD's JAMES ORLANDO prefers a smaller 25 basis-point cut — same as the bank's previous three moves.

A message from the Canadian Bankers Association:

MEDIA ROOM

— From CTV News: "Indian high commissioner accuses Trudeau of destroying bilateral relationship, says 'mistrust' persists"

— POLITICO's KYLE DUGGAN reports: Could battleground states be decided from … Canada? Former envoy BRUCE HEYMAN is convinced expats could make the difference.

— Alberta's government inked a $1.2 million lobbying contract with former Obama administration official BETH BURKE and Capitol Counsel, according to a copy filed with the Justice Department. POLITICO Influence has the details.

— ‘Canada, if they’ll take us’: POLITICO speaks to worried Michigan Democrats as they contemplate a DONALD TRUMP win.

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Former US envoy defines the stakes for Canada.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Who could be in Harris’ Cabinet? Here are leading contenders.

— Who could be in Trump's next Cabinet? Here are leading contenders.

— Canadian court revives youth climate lawsuit.

— US regulator seeks ‘integrity’ in troubled voluntary carbon market.

— The world needs more climate cash. Is the IRA making it harder?

A message from the Canadian Bankers Association:

The trust Canadians place in their banks means everything. Over 99 per cent of adult Canadians have an account with a financial institution, a responsibility we take seriously. It’s the foundation of every personal connection we nurture and every dream we help support. Whether they’re paying bills, saving for the future, or managing daily expenses, we’re on their side. Employing over 280,000 Canadians in the banking sector, our commitment extends through every branch and office, powering not just individual success but also contributing to our economy. With every decision – big or small – Canada’s banks are on your side, committed to Canadians' security and growth. Click here to learn more about how Canada's banking sector is supporting you.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to BRIAN TOBIN (70), as well as former NDP MPs CHRISTINE MOORE and ROSANE DORÉ LEFEBVRE (40).

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Former Cabinet minister and MP JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD, marking nine years since her first election win: "Advice to former colleagues—choose principle over partisanship" … ANA POILIEVRE, stopping by TLN Media on a visit to Toronto … Podcaster JOE ROGAN, sounding off on JUSTIN TRUDEAU (not for the first time).

Noted: The 2024 Public Service Employee Survey, a biennial snapshot of life in the federal bureaucracy, will run Oct. 28 until Dec. 31. Past surveys have generated headlines.

Movers and shakers: Three former MPs lost provincial bids in British Columbia: provincial Cabmin NATHAN CULLEN, a five-term NDP MP, in Bulkley Valley-Stikine; JINNY SIMS , a Cabmin and one-term NDP MP, in Surrey-Panorama; and recent Trudeau Liberal JOHN ALDAG, in Langley-Abbotsford.

Former NDP MP SHEILA MALCOLMSON, an Ottawa one-termer who went provincial in 2019, was reelected in Nanaimo-Gabriola Island.

Former Liberal MP ANDY FILLMORE was comfortably elected Halifax mayor.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

11 a.m. CBC President CATHERINE TAIT will be at the House heritage committee with CBC board chair MICHAEL GOLDBLOOM.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will study the impact of the reopening of the cod fishery.

11 a.m. The House natural resources committee continues its study on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

11 a.m. International Trade Minister MARY NG and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, as well as department officials, will be in front of the House international trade committee to discuss the protection of certain Canadian manufacturing sectors, including EVs.

11 a.m. Ethics Commissioner KONRAD VON FINCKENSTEIN will be in front of the House public accounts committee as it continues its investigation of Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

11 a.m. The House status of women committee continues its study of breast cancer screening for women aged 40.

3:30 p.m. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE will be at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee as it studies Bill S-16.

3:30 p.m. The House industry committee will hear from Equifax Canada Co., Fintechs Canada and Momentum as it studies credit card practices and regulations in Canada.

4 p.m. The Senate veterans affairs committee will study Bill C-20.

5 p.m. The Senate human rights committee will hear from academics and the Children’s Aid Foundation of Canada as it studies “aging out of foster care.”

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will focus on matters relating to minority-language health services.

Behind closed doors: The House citizenship and immigration committee will discuss its report on closed work permits and temporary foreign workers. The House justice committee will focus on its study on Islamophobia. The House committee on Canada-China relations will also be at work on a report. The House environment committee will focus on its draft report on the oil and gas industry.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: GIB VAN ERT, lawyer for Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG at the public inquiry into foreign interference, represented MENG WANZHOU in 2021.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, KATE MCKENNA, RAISA PATEL, MENG WANZHOU, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and MALCOLM MCKAY.

Today’s question: Name the first ship to be commissioned as one of His or Her Majesty’s Canadian Ships.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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