Measuring Moscow’s month of election meddling

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Oct 18, 2024 View in browser   By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Nahal Toosi Moldovans head to the polls this Sunday to vote on whether to grant pro-European President Maia Sandu a second term — they’ll also be voting on a referendum that would bring the landlocked former Soviet Republic closer to Brussels. | Michele Tantussi/AFP via Getty Images With help from Joe Gould, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Those trying to discern the impact of Russian efforts to interfere in the U.S. election are looking for clues in October ballots in two other countries — Moldova and Georgia. Analysts and political leaders in both countries have said that Russia is committing hybrid warfare on their polls, waging cyberattacks and disinformation and propaganda campaigns to try to ensure Moldova and Georgia stay within their sphere of influence. In Moldova — which heads to the polls this Sunday — citizens are voting on whether to grant pro-European President MAIA SANDU a second term. They’ll also be voting on a referendum that would bring the landlocked former Soviet Republic closer to Brussels. Russia’s efforts to influence the outcome have skewed toward the brazen. A pro-Putin oligarch even went so far as to bribe voters to oppose the E.U. referendum, and the Kremlin is accused of funding proxy parties to alter the outcome of the vote. The Atlantic Council’s MARK SCOTT dubs Moldova “ a make-or-break moment to combat Russian interference.” Meanwhile, on Oct. 26, Georgian voters will elect a new parliament in an election that could thwart the ruling Georgian Dream party’s eleventh-hour efforts to move Tbilisi away from Europe and closer to Moscow. Earlier this year, the country’s president SALOME ZOURABICHVILI, who is not a member of the ruling party, warned that the Kremlin was supporting disinformation campaigns by pro-Russian groups in the country. Russian-backed hackers have also launched cyberattacks, even temporarily downing Zourabichvili’s website in January of this year. And Russia’s interference efforts in Moldova and Georgia are likely much less extensive than what they have already attempted in order to sway the U.S. election on Nov. 5. Russia is accused of spreading fake videos and other disinformation online in order to hurt the campaign of Vice President KAMALA HARRIS and sow distrust within American society. (The U.S. is also working to combat similar operations from China and Iran.) Russia, for its part, has denied any kind of election interference, including in Moldova, Georgia and the United States. Washington has been watching Russia’s actions closely in all of these elections, but especially Moldova in recent days. White House National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. will “continue to support Moldova and the Moldovan people and to expose and counter Russian efforts to undermine Moldova democracy.” Kirby also pointed to a litany of Biden administration collaborations with the Sandu government to combat increased Russian meddling in the country’s internal politics. On Capitol Hill, Senate Foreign Relations Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) wrote to tech companies Thursday urging them to more proactively combat Russian disinformation on their platforms ahead of Sunday’s vote in Moldova. But the damage may already be done, per DENIS CENUSA , a Moldovan analyst with the German Expert-Grup think tank. While Moldovans are likely to give Sandu a second term, they’re less keen on the referendum, which will modify the country’s constitution to declare the “irreversibility” of Moldova’s integration with Europe. Russia, he explained, has successfully linked the unrelated referendum with the prospect of joining NATO, which Moldovans oppose. “Intermingling between the European integration and NATO is something which is really scaring the Moldovans,” Cenusa said. “Sentiments of fear are very much exploited at this point.” A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen. That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more.   The Inbox THE WAR AFTER SINWAR: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU was quick yesterday to dismiss the idea that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR could open the path to a cease-fire in Gaza. Today, Hamas did the same. “We are continuing Hamas’s path,” said KHALIL AL-HAYYA , Sinwar’s deputy, in televised remarks. He added that Hamas won’t release Israeli hostages until Israeli forces leave Gaza. President JOE BIDEN, while in Berlin, called on Israel to “make this moment an opportunity ” for peace in Gaza. Expect that U.S. pressure on Israel to continue, and Netanyahu to defy it. His right-wing coalition partners don’t want a truce, and they keep him in power. He also knows Biden is limited in how much he can push Israel these last days before the U.S. election. But the U.S. had in recent months come to see Sinwar as a bigger block to a cease-fire than Netanyahu; some observers suspected the militant was holding out in hopes that Iran and other regional forces could come to Hamas’ aid. His death could create an opening for others in Hamas to push more strongly for talks. However, it’s unclear who will succeed Sinwar, and whoever that is could want to seem even tougher. That would put a cease-fire further out of reach. “Hamas is the main obstacle,” a United Nations official familiar with the situation on the ground told NatSecDaily. The official noted reports that Sinwar’s brother Mohammed could be the successor, but pointed out that he’s rumored to be more of a hardliner than his dead sibling. Read: ‘I foresee a very long insurgency by Hamas’: Former U.S. ambassador RYAN CROCKER in a Q&A with our own MICHAEL HIRSH A UN FAILURE IN ETHIOPIA? The United Nations World Food Program knew for several years that food aid provided by the United States was being stolen in Ethiopia but repeatedly failed to act, GIULIA PARAVICINI and STEVE STECKLOW of Reuters report. The agency was warned by its staff and other aid groups of the diversions, which funneled the aid to armed forces and the black market, according to the investigation . But the WFP didn’t act in part because it feared Ethiopian government retaliation amid the country’s civil war. SPEAKING FREELY: PAUL WHELAN, one of the Americans freed from Russian detention during an August prisoner swap, tells CBS News that he suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder even though he’s regained some weight and might look as if he’s “doing OK.” In an interview with CBS’ MARGARET BRENNAN to air in its entirety this weekend, Whelan also has kind words for former fellow detainee and WNBA star BRITTNEY GRINER, who was freed in an earlier prisoner swap despite spending less time in the Kremlin’s clutches. ANOTHER INDIA INDICTMENT: U.S. prosecutors have charged VIKASH YADAV, whom they identified as a former Indian intelligence official, on allegations he was part of a plot in which India is targeting Sikh separatists beyond its borders. The indictment follows Canada’s expulsion of several Indian diplomats it suspects had a hand in the broad scheme. At least one Sikh activist has been killed. The developments could undercut growing ties between the U.S. and India, both of which are worried about the rise of China. A DIFFERENT TYPE OF SNOW: A snowboarder who once represented Canada in the Olympics has been charged by U.S. officials as the leader of a violent drug ring. RYAN WEDDING is on the run from authorities. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring our own PHELIM KINE, our in-house China correspondent, a regular contributor to NatSec Daily and the co-author of POLITICO’s transatlantic twice-weekly China Watcher newsletter. Phelim waxes poetic in recalling how an ice cold Taiwan Beer Classic is the perfect complement to a streetside stir-fry or bowl of beef noodles (牛肉麵) on a sultry summer night (don't mention the more recent iterations of the drink, which have included a pineapple-flavored version). Here in D.C. — and in a nod to a late onset age-wisdom dynamic — you're likely to find Phelim sipping on a more waistline-friendly Slim Hazy low-carb IPA produced by Maine's Peak Organic Brewing Company. But he'll throw good judgment to the wind when confronted with a mojito when mint is fresh and local. 干杯 (gan-bei), or "cheers,” Phelim! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND! Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @heidivogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ErinBanco, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1 ELECTION 2024 FOGGY BURGUM? The State Department has a new suitor. North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM is hoping that, if DONALD TRUMP wins November’s presidential election, he will be named secretary of State, two people familiar with his thinking tell our own BEN LEFEBVRE. As Ben wrote in Morning Energy today (for Pros!) , Burgum has lots of experience on energy issues, and the oil industry is trying to convince him to aim for the Interior Department. There he would be in charge of policy for the roughly 20 percent of the U.S. landmass under federal control, and would be able to dictate energy production on federal lands. But the same drive that helped turn him into a software billionaire and relatively popular GOP primary candidate who ended up on the list of possible Trump running mates has him dreaming bigger. “Burgum either wants State or chief of staff,” said one of the people. Both were granted anonymity to talk about private discussions. Trump’s first secretary of State was REX TILLERSON , who had led ExxonMobil. That relationship ended poorly. A Burgum spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.     Keystrokes BIDEN’S CYBERATTACK CRICKETS: The Biden administration has said little about how China broke into the servers of as many as 10 major U.S. telecommunications companies. As our friends at Morning Cybersecurity wrote this morning (for Pros!) , part of the reason why the administration has been restrained in the level of details it’s provided the public is that the news came out before all relevant parts of the government were informed. The government, our own JOSEPH GEDEON adds, still doesn’t have a firm grasp on the scope of the attack and the extent of the intrusion. At the same time, a current cyber official told Morning Cyber that the White House was “pretty freaked out” that the little info they had about the attack was being leaked. They’re worried that will hinder the keyboard-to-keyboard combat underway to get China out of those systems. Unlike other hacks, officials said there are real worries that China isn’t breaking into servers to “preposition” itself ahead of a conflict and may be preparing more immediate action. And not to mention, Congress isn’t around to pressure the White House to get to the bottom of the intrusion faster, and occasionally leak some of the answers to their questions. The Complex KYIV ON THE CLOCK: Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) is urging Biden to take more aggressive action to support Ukraine in the final months of his presidency, Connor and Joe report (for Pros!). "I am frustrated — and mystified — that your administration has accomplished so little in the last three months regarding the war in Ukraine,” Wicker, the Senate Armed Services Committee’s top Republican, wrote in a letter to Biden. “You seem poised to leave the next president a weak hand." “Nonetheless, I maintain that a focused effort — directed by you — could make a substantial difference over your final 90 days as president,” Wicker added. Wicker’s push highlights some of the bipartisan pressure on the administration to strengthen support for Ukraine ahead of the election. Wicker outlined 10 recommendations, including speeding up the delivery of military aid and increasing U.S. personnel in Ukraine to manage the large-scale effort. Read: Russia will stop war if NATO invites Ukraine to join, says Zelenskyy by Financial Times’ HENRY FOY A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace. Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more.   On the Hill BIRD-DOGGING A BUSINESS CONSULTANT: Three top GOP lawmakers are urging the Defense and Justice Departments to investigate whether consulting firm McKinsey & Company misrepresented its work with Chinese government agencies. McKinsey “failed to disclose consulting engagements with the central and provincial government” of China and state-owned enterprises while working with the DOD on “sensitive national security matters,” wrote China Committee Chair Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.), Senate Intelligence ranking Republican MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), and Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) in letters to DOD and DOJ released Friday. The lawmakers argue McKinsey’s lack of transparency could “pose a serious risk to U.S. national security” and may have violated federal law. McKinsey’s U.S. defense contracts provided access to classified information on projects like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the Navy’s shipyards. The letters follow reports in February from the Financial Times about McKinsey’s ties to the Chinese government. McKinsey declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the company is revamping its China business after reducing its government-linked clients and cutting about 500 jobs or around a third of its China workforce over the last two years. McKinsey has reportedly been separating the China unit from its global operations to reduce security risks with doing business in the country. MARK YOUR CALENDARS:  House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) is requesting a classified briefing from the administration on reports that 10,000 North Korean troops are now deployed in support of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a letter to the administration, Turner said the reports are "alarming and are an extreme escalation of the conflict in Ukraine." Broadsides BEIRUT TELLS OFF TEHRAN: Lebanon’s government is showing a bit more willingness to stand up to Iran now that Hezbollah has been weakened by Israeli attacks. Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister NAJIB MIKATI today rebuked an Iranian official for saying Tehran could help “negotiate” the implementation of a U.N. resolution in Lebanon. Mikati said that such comments amount to interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs. Iran’s sponsorship of Hezbollah, a Shiite militia and political movement, has long made Tehran a player in Lebanon and weakened the Arab country’s other political leaders. Lebanon hasn’t been able to choose a president for two years in part because of this dynamic. It’s too soon to say if Mikati’s comments were a one-off. But U.S. and Israeli officials have urged Lebanon’s citizens to free themselves of Tehran and Hezbollah’s influence amid ongoing Israeli attacks that have decimated the militia’s leadership. Transitions — CHRIS DIBARI now works on climate and energy at the National Security Council. He most recently was senior duty officer at the White House Situation Room. — ALICIA PHILLIPS MANDAVILLE is now COO of aid group Anera. She most recently was vice president for policy and evaluation at the Millenium Challenge Corporation. — JASON CHAUVIN is now a director of industrial trade policy at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative as part of the White House Leadership Development Program. He most recently was a senior engineer at the Bureau of Industry and Security in the Commerce Department. — TESSA BROWNE, communications director for Rep. JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), is leaving today to become the press secretary for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. What to Read —  ALI WYNE, International Crisis Group: The next U.S. administration and China policy — ALLISON MINOR, Foreign Affairs: In countering the Houthis, America should lead from behind — State Department Inspector General’s Office: Audit of the Disposition of Sensitive Security Assets at U.S. Embassies Kabul, Afghanistan, and Kyiv, Ukraine Monday Today — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: The future of U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance — Hudson Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Relearning escalation dynamics to win the new cold war — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: Trump, Harris and the transatlantic future — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: Putin's red lines: Does he mean what we think we heard? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "On XI JINPING: How Xi's Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World" with Ambassador KEVIN RUDD — Council on Foreign Relations, 6 p.m.: Election 2024 U.S. foreign policy forum Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is bribing readers of this newsletter to send us hate mail.  Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is working with us to thwart Heidi’s editorial interference.   Follow us on Twitter Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil   Follow us

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