BAN THE BAN Ever since the Dobbs decision, Republicans have struggled to coalesce around an abortion message — and have paid dearly at the ballot box for it. But in the final stretch of this year’s contests for control of the House and Senate, key GOP candidates appear to be falling in line. For one, many Republican candidates, particularly in swing districts, are largely avoiding the issue, leaning instead into immigration, inflation and national security. And when asked directly, they’re sticking to an emerging script — one that allows them to paper over the disagreements within the GOP over how many weeks into pregnancy abortion should be allowed, how exceptions for rape and incest should be handled and whether states or the federal government should regulate the procedure. What the Senate candidates are saying: Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Kari Lake in Arizona all vowed in a string of recent debates not to pursue a national abortion ban if elected or reelected to the Senate. Most — save for Cruz, who dodged the question — stressed their support for exceptions for cases of rape, incest and threats to the life of the mother. They also all attempted to follow the advice of GOP strategist Kellyanne Conway and “flip the script” by painting their Democratic opponents as the true extremists on the issue. Rogers acknowledged that his state “voted overwhelmingly to make abortion legal and a part of the state constitution of Michigan” in 2022 and vowed he would “do nothing” to change that “when I go back to Washington, D.C.” McCormick said he considers abortion “a state's rights issue,” adding that “courts shouldn't decide, judges shouldn't decide, people should decide” and promising that he “would not support any national legislation or any national ban.” “I will never pass a federal abortion ban,” Lake promised in her own debate, though she also quibbled with the moderator on the meaning of the word “ban” in discussing Arizona’s current prohibition on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy: “We don't have a state ban. We have a 15-week abortion law.” Lake, who trails Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in recent polling, is also courting voters who support the state’s abortion-rights ballot measure, which is set to pass overwhelmingly. “There’s going to be a tremendous amount of people who say, ‘Okay, I think that my grocery prices are too high. I think the border is open. But I also like that proposition,’” said Caroline Wren, a senior adviser to Lake. “Arizonans are going to get to make that choice, and Kari trusts them to make the choice.” The Democratic response: Democrats say these GOP candidates are lying and would implement a national ban if given the chance, pointing to their record of voicing support for and voting for federal restrictions. But even as polling shows that the public overwhelmingly opposes the overturning of Roe v. Wade and trusts Democrats more when it comes to the issue of abortion, the late-stage discipline from Republicans on their messaging is helping them stay competitive in key races. “I think the idea of a national ban rings hollow for most people,” said Stan Barnes, an Arizona-based political strategist and former GOP lawmaker. “And most people respect that the states ought to make the decision.” — Alice Miranda Ollstein GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Oct. 17, where we’re reading up on the new pandas. FARM BILL UPDATE FROM FARM LAND Congress is unlikely to pass a full reauthorization of the farm bill before the end of the year, ag-state Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) told a group of GOP women at a lunch event in Omaha, Nebraska on Thursday. Fischer said leaders of the Senate Agriculture Committee are still talking about the issue. But she told attendees that they hadn’t been able to get an agreement in the committee yet and “I don't think we're going to be getting the farm bill done this year.” “Sen. Thune and I visited this morning, and neither of us think that we'll be able to get a farm bill,” she said, referring to Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), who hails from another agriculture-heavy state. POLITICO has previously reported that a new reauthorization in the lame duck has looked increasingly out of reach, though top staffers for committee leadership have been trying to break the impasse. If Congress can’t get a full reauthorization done by the end of the year, they’ll need to pass a short-term extension. — Jordain Carney reporting from Omaha, Nebraska, with an assist from Meredith Lee Hill EXCLUSIVE: POLL SHOWS A CLOSE RACE FOR MOLINARO WITH DEM OPPONENT A poll surveying likely voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District found a close race between Democrat Josh Riley and Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro, according to a memo obtained by Inside Congress. Riley garnered 48 percent to Molinaro’s 45 percent in the survey, which was conducted from Oct. to 13 among 801 likely voters. The poll, by the Democratic Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, is the latest data point showing Democrats have a chance of flipping back this Hudson Valley seat in what could be one of the tightest races on the House map. It also found that former President Donald Trump is up by one point against Vice President Kamala Harris in the swing district. President Joe Biden carried the seat in 2020. — Daniella Diaz EXCLUSIVE: SENATORS WANT A SUPP All six senators from Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia sent a letter to President Joe Biden Wednesday urging him to submit a supplemental appropriations request for cleanup and recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The letter, led by Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and shared exclusively with Inside Congress, comes after the bipartisan group of senators (and others) previously urged Senate leadership to come back to Washington early to pass additional funding. “Given the immense need, we respectfully ask that the Office of Management and Budget work quickly to determine the costs of recovering from Hurricane Helene and Milton and immediately submit a supplemental appropriations request to Congress that includes this full cost,” the senators wrote. “Congress stands ready to ensure the federal government and our communities have what they need to recover from Hurricanes Helene and Milton and future natural disasters.” — Mia McCarthy
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