Waiting…

Oct 17, 2024

Governor Hochul celebrated the creation of about 71,000 new apartments in New York City Thursday

Gov. Kathy Hochul is in a holding pattern. | Don Pollard/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

HOCHUL IS SITTING, WAITING, WISHING: Three problems threaten to define the political legacy of Gov. Kathy Hochul — and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries looms over each.

If October is the month of surprise for presidential candidates, for Hochul, it’s a period of interlude. Consider the most pressing — and politically consequential — problems facing Hochul right now.

— Congestion pricing — which she halted ahead of its implementation in June, angering activists and shocking allies in the process. This week a judge delayed a ruling in the case challenging her suspension until next month. Hochul continues to withhold any announcement that details how the planned $15 billion in revenue for the MTA’s capital plan will be recouped without the tolling charge.

— The fate of Mayor Eric Adams — whose late September indictment redirected the attention of the New York City press corps squarely onto her City Hall counterpart — still rests in Hochul’s hands. She has the power to remove Adams from office, and has been presented with that question with each passing raid, phone seizure and indictment into him and his inner circle. Hochul has so far indicated she’s unlikely to oust Adams, likely given the racial, legal and ethical quandaries the move would drum up.

The mayor — who pleaded not guilty — won’t be back in court until Nov. 1. Until then, Hochul will wait, applauding the City Hall personnel changes she demanded of Adams while he maintains he fires and hires people on his own accord.

— And Hochul’s political legacy in Washington — which took a beating when she oversaw ‘disaster’ electoral showings in 2022 with the loss of four House seats — is being written this month before it is sealed at the ballot box.

After the congressional losses and a disappointing showing for Hochul in the governor’s race, she has made clear that she is going into overdrive to avoid another down-ballot embarrassment.

Last month, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, again blamed Hochul for costing the Democrats control of the House. This month, Hochul is wishing for redemption.

The governor’s campaign told Playbook the governor isn’t waiting — but is playing an active role across these issues.

“Governor Hochul is not waiting around to see what happens in November,” Jen Goodman, a spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign, said in a statement. “There is so much at stake in this election and that's why she is working tirelessly to support Democrats up and down the ticket, flip the House majority, and defeat Donald Trump.”

With each pressing predicament, the quiet power of Jeffries plays a leading role.

He had a key part in Hochul’s decision to pause the congestion pricing plan, a move driven by fear the unpopular toll plan would hurt Democrats in November, POLITICO reported. (His team says the pause was the governor’s decision.)

While the governor could unilaterally remove Adams from office, she is unlikely to do so without the support of key Black political leaders — specifically Jeffries and famed civil rights leader Al Sharpton — who hold sway over Adams and much of his political base.

And the recouping of Democrats’ lost House seats — an effort undertaken by the Democratic Coordinated Campaign, which is led by Jeffries, Hochul and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand — is all in the service of making sure the Black political leader becomes the next Speaker of the House.

While Jeffries looms, Hochul’s enemies lurk.

An Adams resignation would trigger a special election that would serve former Gov. Andrew Cuomo well, where his near-universal name recognition would help him in a shortened campaigning window. (Cuomo hasn’t announced any plans to run for mayor, but he is said to be considering candidacy).

Today Hochul downplayed reports that her aides reached out to Vice President Kamala Harris’ about working in a Harris presidential administration should she win the White House — another development the governor is waiting on this month.

“I’m not leaving New York; all of that is false,” Hochul said in response to the report. “There are bad actors out there purveying lies.” — Jason Beeferman

From the Capitol

Governor Kathy Hochul make a public safety announcement in Albany.

Governor Kathy Hochul made another public safety announcement in Albany Thursday. | Mike Groll/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

PUBLIC SAFETY PUSH: Hochul wants to persuade New Yorkers the state is getting safer on her watch — and she’s armed with statistics to combat what has been a political vulnerability.

The governor today pointed to a year-over-year drop in violent crime, including a 26 percent drop in shootings outside of New York City.

Flanked by members of the State Police and a bipartisan gathering of district attorneys, Hochul said the numbers, in part, serve as a counter to claims (mostly by her Republican critics) that public safety is deteriorating under her administration.

“I see a lot of ads that are trying to create fear, to make people feel like, especially as we get closer to Halloween, that there's this sinister feeling out there that politicians are trying to score a political gain,” she said. “And, I'm telling you, you can watch that, but also I'm here to tell you the truth.”

Hochul is aware of how potent the crime issue can be for Democrats. In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin ran on a tough-on-crime platform against Hochul, who won by 6 points — a relatively modest margin for a New York Democrat.

Since then, Hochul has asserted that crime is down and police funding is up. She has steered more money to the State Police and today presided over the graduation of 181 new troopers.

She has also pressed for legislative changes, including measures that narrow the scope of the controversial law that curtail cash bail and efforts to combat shoplifting.

Still, Hochul is also aware of the perception that New York voters have consistently told pollsters they are concerned with public safety. A Siena College poll in June found a plurality of voters — 49 percent — believe crime has gotten worse in the last year.

“Don't get me wrong, I will never say everything's perfect,” Hochul said. “No matter how good the statistics get, we're going to make them even better — even better, and I'll keep reporting to the public on our progress.” — Nick Reisman

From The Campaign Trail

Republicans rally against New York's proposed Equal Rights Amendment.

Republicans rally against the Equal Rights Amendment outside of Schenectady's City Hall. | Bill Mahoney/POLITICO

ARE TRANS RIGHTS ON THE BALLOT?: The Hochul-led state Democratic party is pushing hard to ensure Prop 1 — a ballot provision that aims to protect the right to an abortion by enshrining equal rights to all New Yorkers across genders and pregnancy outcomes — passes this November.

But the push for adopting the Equal Rights Amendment has brought up another debate around whether the measure would affirm the right of trans athletes to play in sports leagues consistent with their gender identity regardless of their sex at birth.

Republicans have used the ERA’s perceived impact on trans rights as a tactic to mobilize opposition to the measure.

Meanwhile, Democrats have either ignored whether the measure impacts on trans rights or argued the discussion is a distraction brought forward to sink the measure.

“Girls sports has been governed by Title IX for more than 50 years – that's federal law, it's not going anywhere, and Prop 1 doesn't affect it,” Sasha Ahuja, Campaign Director for New Yorkers for Equal Rights, said in a statement to Playbook. “Anyone saying otherwise is trying to disingenuously use a small handful of innocent kids as political pawns to divide New Yorkers and distract from what this amendment is actually about: protecting the right to abortion and guaranteeing our personal freedoms."

Discussions over ERA’s impact on gender identity came to a head this week as the nonpartisan fact-checking outlet PolitiFact released a report that labeled claims the amdmendment could impact trans athletes rights’ as “mostly true.”

The report, which was published in partnership with the Buffalo News, says the ERA would strengthen legal protections for trans athletes when their participation on sports teams aligning with their gender identity is challenged in court.

The New York City Bar Association recently released a fact sheet clarifying the amendment doesn’t change existing law around trans rights. (Katharine Bodde, a lawyer from the NYCLU who spoke with Playbook, also said the rights of trans athletes to play in sports leagues are already protected and upheld under federal Title IX law.)

Those opposing the ballot measure have argued recent public polling backs up their focus on trans rights.

“New Yorkers implicitly understand that what’s happening to Girls Sports in this state isn’t fair. In fact, 66% of New Yorkers recently polled (Siena) want girls-only sports preserved in the state,” Tamara Marcella, a partner to the Coalition to Protect Kids-NY, said in a statement.

“Opponents of Prop 1 aren’t anti-anyone; we’re simply pro-Girl, and that should be enough.” — Jason Beeferman

IN OTHER NEWS...

— THE WEEKEND VOTE: More New York City residents are voting from their second homes in the Catskills, Hudson Valley and the Hamptons, hoping to boost Democrats in swing districts. (The New York Times)

— TRUMP’S SHADOW ON TRANSIT: The winner of the presidential election will have an outsized impact on the state’s transit systems. (Gothamist)

— SHELTER FALLOUT: Many of the nonprofits contracting with the city to run its homeless shelters could be committing corruption and engaging in nepotism, a new probe finds. (Crain’s New York Business)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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