Speculation playoffs

Oct 04, 2024

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. It’s Friday!

Let’s get to it:

→ Everyone has thoughts; consider Playbook your speculation station.

→ Rumble in the budget study.

→ A look ahead at next week in the House.

DRIVING THE DAY

CAN’T STOP, WON’T STOP — As the game clock runs down, everyone and their uncle is gaming out — or even calling — what happens next in this Parliament.

Just like the kickoff to any championship series, place your bets now and gloat later. If you’re wrong … well, who will remember?

— Stick a fork in it: On PETER MANSBRIDGE’s “The Bridge” pod, former Trudeau consigliere GERALD BUTTS offered up, “If I were a betting man, which I am not, I would circle maybe the last 10 days on the calendar in October for the House to fall for a December election.”

Former Harper-era Cabinet minister JAMES MOORE on the same episode: “If JUSTIN TRUDEAU is staying, Gerry’s assessment could very well be true. Part of the arithmetic on this is that minority parliaments don’t always fall by design.”

— The long prorogue: Moore also offered up another theory that’s been rocketing through Ottawa’s bars and coffee shops. If PMJT secretly is ready to pack it in: “Prorogue Parliament, not have a lame-duck prime minister for a long time, do a 2-3 month [leadership] campaign, have a new prime minister in early February and go into a budget in early March and go into a campaign for June.”

— Narrow window: Journalists JOËL-DENIS BELLAVANCE and CATHERINE LÉVESQUE worked out some quick calendar math on CPAC that if the parties bring the government down this fall, the election would probably get called by end of October to avoid a campaign that runs into the Christmas holiday season. The campaign period has to be from 37 days to 51 days long under the current rules.

— Thanks, no thanks: Elsewhere in the Mansbridge universe, CHANTAL HÉBERT floated several options, the most logical one calling an election after Canadian Thanksgiving — if Trudeau’s ready to call it quits.

“In theory, the pharmacare bill is going to get through the Senate before Thanksgiving, and then there will be a break. The fourth option would see Justin Trudeau call us in on the day after Thanksgiving to announce that he's both proroguing Parliament until February and then stepping down. Once you prorogue Parliament, zap, everyone is frozen. You get to February, no non-confidence votes.”

— Key ingredients: By now, everyone is clued into the fact the NDP don’t have much in their piggy bank or a ton of candidates nominated.

There are three provincial elections underway, making a snap election unlikely. The Tories might want an election right now, but all three main opposition parties (or two and a dose of parliamentary chaos) need to vote in unison to trigger one.

The Liberals are down a campaign director and they’re so far down in the polls they’ll want to avoid an early race at any cost. JUSTIN TRUDEAU keeps insisting he’s staying (but he has to say that). But if he decides to leave, it changes the timing.

Then, there’s that Oct. 29 deadline the Bloc set, when it will pull its support on confidence votes if its two priority bills aren’t expediently passed, including one to raise old age security.

Liberal House Leader KARINA GOULD told VASSY KAPELOS on “Power Play” this week that proroguing is still off the table, but the government is also signaling it’s open to hearing ideas on supporting seniors.

A message from Universities Canada:

Canada’s reputation as a leading destination for international students is in jeopardy due to recent federal policy changes aimed at reducing student permits. While it’s crucial to address housing and immigration challenges, these measures are hindering Canada’s universities’ ability to attract global talent, sustain university funding and advance research. International students are essential to Canada’s future economy and innovation. It’s time to restore Canada’s legacy as a global education leader. Learn more.

— Longer term outlooks: NDPers JORDAN LEICHNITZ and LEAH WARD tell iPolitics’ DAVIS LEGREE not to expect a fall election.

Globe reporter BOB FIFE said on a CPAC journalist panel that while a fall election could happen, it’s probably more likely a spring fling.

Conservative GINNY ROTH wrote for the Hub last week she doesn’t see a path to any early snap election: “I’m sorry to say it, Conservatives, but Trudeau is in his the-longer-I’m-prime minister era, and he’s got a couple of dance partners who are more than happy to keep the party going before the clock strikes midnight.”

Or just ask one of the procedural magicians who used to work in a House leader’s office. PHILIPPE BOLDUC of Wellington Advocacy previously told Playbook that the budget is the obvious place for this to all go down, while former House leader PETER VAN LOAN had said it’s likely to go the “full term” to fall 2025, noting the government still has lots of procedural devices available.

Put the prime minister himself in that camp, too. Trudeau has mentioned several times he wants a fall 2025 election.

— Quantum election date: Consensus has us on track to an early post-Thanksgiving, Christmas-ish, spring budget-triggered, fixed-date election. Duh.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in France, participating in the 19th Sommet de la Francophonie.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events on the schedule.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released a public itinerary.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Chicoutimi, Quebec.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in British Columbia where at 11 a.m. local time he plans to canvass in Burnaby East with BC NDP candidate REAH ARORA.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend Parliament in person.

DULY NOTED

— Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs DAVID MORRISON testifies at the public inquiry into foreign interference, along with a string of Global Affairs officials, including TARA DENHAM, WELDON EPP, PHILIPPE LAFORTUNE, ALEXANDRE LÉVÊQUE and CINDY TERMORSHUIZEN.

— Trade Minister MARY NG is in Brussels at a European Commission event marking the purchase of 22 Canadian-made DHC-515 firefighter aircraft.

For your radar

NEXT WEEK NOW — "Well, that was cute."

Government House Leader KARINA GOULD went for a mix of condescension and kindness during her weekly repartee with Tory counterpart ANDREW SCHEER.

— The Thursday Question: Once a week following QP, Scheer queries Gould on the government's preferred agenda for the next week — preferred because, as Conservatives reminded her this week, she exerts limited control over the chamber's business.

Scheer claimed the government had lost control of the House of Commons, failing even to pass a ways-and-means vote that included controversial changes to capital gains tax rules.

Gould accused Scheer of "obstruction for the sake of obstruction" — procedural trickery meant to gum up the works. It sounded like 2021 all over again.

— Backstory in brief: Conservatives hoovered up House time with a pair of privilege motions. They want to admonish a former business partner of Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT and force him to answer questions.

They're also demanding disclosure of documents related to a scandal at Sustainable Development Technology Canada. Tories want a parliamentary committee to study the matter, and hand over disclosed docs to Mounties for review.

Gould says the arrangement would bypass the legal system and wrongfully endanger Charter rights. When she vacated the chamber and debate resumed on the SDTC privilege motion, Tory after Tory rose on it. The clock ticked and tocked. The House calendar shrunk a bit more.

Welcome to silly season made permanent.

— On the agenda: Barring a fresh round of fun and games meant to thwart government business, Gould hopes to debate four bills next week:

→ C-76, which gives local government more power over development in the town of Jasper.

→ C-71, which amends citizenship rules.

→ C-66, which reforms the military justice system.

→ C-63, which aims to regulate online activity.

A message from Universities Canada:

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN

Up: Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, getting his Op Day motion passed by the House.

Down: Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH, indulging chemtrails conspiracists.

PAPER TRAIL

READY TO RUMBLE — The Toronto-based video-sharing site Rumble, known for railing against “cancel culture” and having ties to DONALD TRUMP world,wrote to MPs on the House finance committee’s pre-budget consultations in a letter Parliament recently made public.

It’s calling on the government to abandon its Online Harms Act, arguing it’ll poison freedom of expression in Canada.

— Stateside: The company is often referred to as “alt tech” by its critics for attracting conspiracy theorists,extremists and deplatformed influencers (a fifth of its prominent accounts have been elsewhere banned or demonetized,according to Pew Research Center).

It’s backed by billionaire PETER THIEL and GOP VP candidate JD VANCE. It hosts Trump’s Truth Social network on what it calls its “cancel-culture-free cloud platform.” Another cloud services client: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.

The company notably legally challenged New York’s online hate speech law in 2022, which resulted in a judge blocking enforcement last year.

— Notable quotable: “Should Bill C-63 be implemented, the government will dictate to society what is, or is not, acceptable content,” writes ABBIE SUMBRUM, the company’s director of government relations. “Rumble does not believe in moving the goalposts on its content creators, and we are not supportive of deplatforming and removing content based on the whims of what is fashionable and trendy.”

— Background: The Liberal government’s marquee digital legislation, introduced in late February this year, would force social media companies to limit harmful content on their platforms and report what they see to a government body.

Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI has said it will not give Ottawa the power to determine what counts as appropriate content and will continue to allow “awful but lawful” content.

It’s currently at second reading in the House and before long will be bound for committee study. Virani has said he’s open to amendments.

— Conservative confab: Rumble partnered with Rebel News to hold a live event in Toronto back in May that slammed the bill. Tickets were C$30.

According to the right-wing news site True North, the confab featured DONALD TRUMP JR. and his fiancée, former Fox host KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE. Also at the event: CEO CHRIS PAVLOVSKI, journalist GLENN GREENWALD, freedom convoyer TAMARA LICH (in the audience), Rebel News’ EZRA LEVANT and DAVID MENZIES.

— Lobby trail: Crestview’s LUCAS BORCHENKO, LEE BOSWELL and ASHTON ARSENAULT are listed in the federal lobby registry to rep Rumble on the Online News Act, broadcast policy and online content, and C-63, the online harms bill.

Arsenault met with policy advisers in Justice, DAHLIA JAMES and ISABELLE LALIBERTÉ in early March, and several Conservative MPs around that time, including CATHAY WAGANTALL, BRANDEN LESLIE, JEREMY PATZER and DEAN ALLISON, although the listings only say they were talking about “broadcasting” and “media.”

MEDIA ROOM

— POLITICO reports: A dockworkers strike that threatened the U.S. supply chain weeks before an election is over just days after it began.

— LEANNE SANDERS of APTN says Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE is dismissing the call for a national inquiry into the recent deaths by police of nine First Nations people.

— The Globe's BILL CURRY reports that the Conservatives have asked the lobbying commissioner to review MARK CARNEY’s role as Liberal adviser.

— IAN BRODIE writes on Substack that a PIERRE POILIEVRE government would want to find itself a “DAVID MULRONEY of tax policy” to stickhandle reforms.

— NEIL MOSS of The Hill Times reports back from the Senate where lawmakers suggest substantial committee study will be required to review Bill C-282. Ruh roh.

— “There’s far too much spectacle in Alberta politics at the moment, and not enough truth,” LISA YOUNG writes on her substack. “Chemtrails, vaccine safety, election fraud using electronic tabulators, and the list goes on.”

— CHRISTOPHER CHEUNG of The Tyee files from a former Pizza Hut in Burnaby, British Columbia: “Every election, a candidate moves in.”

— Over on The Hub, TREVOR TOMBE explains why boosting Old Age Security payments would be a costly mistake.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: Blackbird Strategies’ LISA KIRBIE shares a birthday with your humble Playbook writer KYLE DUGGAN.

Saturday: Liberal MPs PETER FONSECA and VANCE BADAWEY (60). High Commissioner to the U.K. RALPH GOODALE (75). Former MPs TOM LUKIWSKI and DAVID CHRISTOPHERSON (70).

Sunday: SANDRA PUPATELLO and CHAVIVA HOŠEK, former policy director to JEAN CHRÉTIEN; and ALEX PUDDIFANT, director of Alberta's Ottawa office.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets.

Spotted: A hike with LAUREEN HARPER available to the highest bidder in an online auction that supports Canadian Geographic.

— On Sparks Street: Dozens of MPs and senators, lining up for an annual outdoor lunch sponsored by turkey, egg and chicken farmer lobby groups amid a Hill debate on supply management. The MP roster: Agriculture Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY (the only Cabmin), YVES PERRON, TAKO VAN POPTA, JOHN MCKAY, JUDY SGRO, FRANCIS DROUIN, MEL ARNOLD, MARK STRAHL, STEPHEN ELLIS, DEAN ALLISON, GLEN MOTZ, LUC BERTHOLD, JOHN BARLOW, VANCE BADAWEY, FRANCESCO SORBARA, ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN, JEAN YIP, LARRY MAGUIRE, ROB OLIPHANT, JAMES BEZAN, RICHARD LEHOUX, KEN MCDONALD, MARCUS POWLOWSKI, MARTIN SHIELDS, CHRIS BITTLE, MONA FORTIER, JOHN NATER, SIMON-PIERRE SAVARD-TREMBLAY, MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE, TED FALK, ARNOLD VIERSEN, BRAD VIS, DAVE EPP, WILSON MIAO and RÉJEAN AUCOIN. Senators: ROB BLACK, IRIS PETTEN, MARY ROBINSON, COLIN DEACON and MARTY DEACON.

Noted: Special adviser to the Liberal Party, MARK CARNEY, is promoting his new book: “The Hinge,” coming in 2025. He says he addresses “how we can to build an even better Canada in an increasingly dangerous and divided world” … Former Ottawa Mayor LARRY O'BRIEN has a new book — a novel: “2028 — Tomorrow is the Day.”

RHONDA KIRKLAND says she’s been nominated as the CPC candidate in Oshawa.

Media mentions: ALEXANDRA POSADZKI is taking on a new role as the Globe’s financial and cybercrime reporter.

A message from Universities Canada:

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: KARINA GOULD shares her game plan.

In other news for Pro readers:

— New NATO boss backs Ukraine’s plea for deep strikes into Russia.

— Export-Import Bank faces rising pressure to end fossil fuel loans.

— Carbon market ‘pioneer’ faces federal fraud charges.

— California reports two human avian flu infections.

— Lawmakers want Biden team to put more pressure on COP29 host.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

9 a.m. Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY is in Prince Edward Island and will be at Harrington Research Farm at 10 a.m. local time to announce supports for the Eastern Canadian oilseed industry.

10 a.m. Three major tobacco control agencies will hold a presser in Room 135B, West Block, to comment on “the failure of the Minister of Addictions to adequately regulate the vaping market.”

10 a.m. FedDev Ontario Minister FILOMENA TASSI will be at the Tourism Hamilton Visitor Experience Centre with an announcement that supports across southern Ontario.

10 a.m. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be at the Innovation Hub in Halifax at 11 a.m. local time where he’ll “recognize progress of the foreign credential recognition project.”

10 a.m. Liberal MP KODY BLOIS will be at TapRoot Farms in Port Williams, Nova Scotia, at 11 a.m. local time to discuss support for sustainable practices in the Canadian organic sector.

11:30 a.m. Diversity Minister KAMAL KHERA will visit a small business in Brampton to highlight the federal government’s support for Canada’s small businesses.

2 p.m. Public Services Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS will be in Quebec City where he will also discuss ways the government supports Canada’s small businesses.

TRIVIA

Thursday’s answer: The Sputnik satellite completed 1,440 orbits of Earth.

Props to JAVIER GONZALEZ BLANCO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JIM CAMPBELL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, BILL PRISTANKSI, JOHN MERRIMAN and MALCOLM MCKAY.

Friday’s question: Why did Shag Harbour make news on this date in history?

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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