HELLO. Having spent a week in Washington, D.C. for the IMF-World Bank meetings (more on that below), I’ve arrived home to a Brussels that’s obsessing about the Nov. 5 U.S. election. TRUMP PREPPERS: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s right-hand man Björn Seibert — known as the most powerful man in Brussels — has been huddling with ambassadors of the EU’s 27 countries and other top officials to game out how the bloc will respond to whatever happens. The meetings come after the EU set up a rapid reaction force to prepare for either a Kamala Harris and Donald Trump victory (though we hear they’re working a little harder to get ready for a return of the former president). Too little too late? Von der Leyen may have enjoyed close collaboration with Washington and a rapport with Joe Biden over the past four years, particularly over Russia’s war in Ukraine. But Biden is yesterday’s man, and whoever next occupies the White House is likely to provide new challenges for the woman who just won another five-year term as European Commission chief. Von der Leyen wasn’t on good terms with Trump when they overlapped as leaders — with one particularly tetchy exchange taking place at Davos. And the EU made little effort to cultivate relations with Harris while she was Biden’s vice president. IN THE TRUMP FAN CLUB: Meanwhile, a wave of recent elections across Europe (as well as the EU-wide ballot in June) have brought right-wing parties to the fore, giving Trump a variety of ideological partners to work with. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has long had links with right-wing elements of the Republican Party, and is tight with Trump surrogate Elon Musk — as evidenced by their love-in at the Atlantic Council Global Citizens Award in New York in September. MEGA MEETS MAGA: Though Meloni has been coy by not endorsing either Trump or Harris, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán nailed his colors to the mast a long time ago. “It’s time for another ‘Make America Great Again’ presidency in the United States,” he told the Hungarian parliament earlier this year; more recently he promised to open “several bottles of Champagne” if Trump wins. In homage to his favorite U.S. politician, Orbán also borrowed from the MAGA lexicon for the official slogan of Hungary’s six-month presidency of the Council of the EU: “ Make Europe Great Again.” Fortuitous timing: Because Hungary currently holds the Council presidency, it will next week host a meeting of the European Political Community — a pan-European forum that includes non-EU countries like Turkey and Britain. The meeting, alongside a summit of all 27 EU countries, will be held in Budapest just two days after the U.S. election. Meaning Orbán, as host, will choreograph the European response to the U.S. election as results roll in across the Atlantic. TRANSATLANTIC TRAUMA WHATEVER HAPPENS on Nov. 5, the transatlantic relationship is in for a bumpy ride. Here are three ways relations between the U.S. and Europe will change, regardless of who wins … 1) ON CHINA: Relations between the United States and China — and how Europe fits into that — will inflect the transatlantic relationship over the next four years. Biden maintained many of Trump’s trade policies, keeping up the economic pressure through tariffs and warning about Beijing’s expansionism in the South China Sea. America’s increasingly hawkish stance toward Beijing is likely to continue whoever wins the White House. China expert Elvire Fabry of the Jacques Delors Institute argued that while Harris has not said much about her stance on trade policy during her campaign, she will “remain committed to a pushback China strategy — and the new administration would be even more insistent on bringing its allies into line with U.S. economic security measures.” One thing Republicans and Democrats do agree on is frustration with the EU’s stance on China. It was in full view at an event hosted by the National Democratic Institute and the EU Delegation to the United States, moderated by your Playbook author, in August. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy was upfront about his view that Europe, particularly France and Germany, weren’t doing enough to confront the Chinese threat. Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly doubled down, delivering a warning about Beijing’s predatory trade practices and joking that Europe “could be forgiven” for failing to act, “given that the United States turned a blind eye to blatant intellectual theft by China” for years. But EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė highlighted how far the EU has shifted, making the valid point that it was Commission chief von der Leyen who coined the “derisking not decoupling” phrase that has cropped up in speeches by Biden administration officials ever since. Reality check: Europe is not prepared to go as far as Washington is on China — either in imposing tariffs or getting dragged into a possible war in the South China Sea. The EU’s duties on Chinese electric vehicles officially kicked in this week, but capped at a max of 45 percent, they are far from the 100 percent adopted by the U.S. In reality, the EU is deeply divided on China , with big beasts like Germany, France and Spain cautious about disrupting their relationship with the world’s second-largest economy, as evidenced by the string of visits to Beijing by leaders including Spain’s Pedro Sánchez. 2) ON TRADE: The possibility of a trade war is perhaps the biggest risk for Europe post-election. But it’s not just Trump who’s worrying Brussels. While the former president has promised a universal tariff of up to 20 percent on all imports, with higher restrictions on goods from China and Mexico, Harris has also pledged to raise tariffs (albeit to a lesser extent) and to protect American industries. “She will be doing things that she thinks are aggressively protecting American workers,” Harris adviser Gene Sperling told reporters last week. Will they or won’t they? The next U.S. president will need to decide whether to extend tariffs linked to a Trump-initiated steel and aluminum dispute with the EU, which have been on pause, with the waiver due to run out in March. Putting themselves first: The tilt toward protectionism that has characterized geopolitics over the past eight or so years shows no sign of abating as the world’s economic powerhouses look to shore up their domestic producers. In the EU, it goes by the snappy phrase “strategic autonomy,” as policy-makers react to former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi‘s report that painted a nightmare picture of European economic decline and dwindling innovation and manufacturing. European officials have made no secret of the fact they’ll hit back if Washington starts a trade war. Having been caught off guard with the first Trump presidency, the EU is prepared to use its economic leverage. The same goes for Beijing. Speaking to Global Playbook at last week’s IMF meetings, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe said Brussels won’t hold pull its punches in responding to China’s unfair trade practices. “China is very important for functioning supply chains within Europe; it’s providing the exports that are important to our transition to a lower carbon future,” he acknowledged. “But at the same time we have to make decisions that protect our economy and projects our manufacturers. We have a balance within Europe we want to strike.” 3) ON UKRAINE: Washington has been by far Ukraine’s top backer in terms of aid. Now, Ukraine’s future hinges on the outcome of the Nov. 5 election, with the candidates sharply divided on the extent to which they’ll continue to help fund the war-torn country’s defenses. Trump has indicated he’ll cut off support , while Harris is sticking close to the current administration’s strongly pro-Kyiv stance. Last week, G7 leaders finalized a deal to use the profits of frozen Russian assets for a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. But the difficulties in getting a supplemental bill which included money for Ukraine through Congress earlier this year is a warning of the fragility of America’s political and public buy-in, particularly as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ’s forces struggle to contain Russia’s advances in the east. Any U.S. retreat on Ukraine could be a hammer-blow for European security, particularly for countries bordering Russia, alarmed that anything other than a decisive victory for Kyiv could encourage Vladimir Putin to expand further west. BUT COULD TRUMP ACTUALLY BE GOOD NEWS FOR EUROPE? As this POLITICO piece sets out, some EU officials are yearning for a Trump return — not because they like his policies, but because they reckon he could deliver a “beneficial shock” to the bloc, forcing it into action on issues like defense or tech. WHAT WALL STREET THINKS: POLITICO’s Sam Sutton headed to the home of the hedge funds (Greenwich, Connecticut naturally), to find out what Wall Street wants out of the U.S. election: “All of us would do better if one side wins,” a financier says, referring to Trump. “The rest of the country just might crumble around us.” GET ELECTION READY: As the world awaits Tuesday’s election, this POLITICO primer is the best you’ll read about what to expect after Election Day. In short: the vote-counting process will be quicker than in 2020, but expect a wait. AROUND THE WORLD DAVOS IN THE DESERT: As the IMF-World Bank meetings wrapped up last weekend, top financial officials headed to Riyadh for the Future Investment Initiative, dubbed Davos in the Desert. Among those in attendance at the glitzy Ritz-Carlton event which concludes today: Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citadel’s Kenneth Griffin, Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman and Citigroup’s Jane Fraser. (Yes, it’s the same Ritz-Carlton where hundreds of senior Saudi figures were detained in 2017 as part of a “crackdown on corruption,” per Riyadh.) All hail MBS: Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio didn’t hold back in his opinion of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who’s continuing to rehabilitate his image in the wake of the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Dalio called MBS a “great leader,” akin to China’s Deng Xiaoping and Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. (THE OTHER) GEORGIA: If ever there was a sign of the deep ideological divides gripping the global community just now, it’s the reaction to the weekend election in the former Soviet state of Georgia . The list of countries who’ve accepted the election result is telling: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, China and Hungary. Most of the West has cried foul, calling for an impartial investigation and alleging the ruling Kremlin-friendly Georgian Dream party used fraud and intimidation to win. Showboating: The latest example of Viktor Orbán using Hungary’s Council of the EU presidency to throw his weight around on the world stage: He flew into Tbilisi in a show of support for Georgian Dream PM Irakli Kobakhidze, describing the election as “free and fair.” A European Commission spokesperson said Orbán had “not received any mandate from the EU Council to visit Tbilisi.” One looming question: Who will represent Georgia at next week’s European Political Community summit in Budapest? As host, Orbán controls the guest list. INVESTOR JITTERS: U.K. finance chief Rachel Reeves, fresh from her first visit to the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington as Britain’s chancellor, presented her first budget on Wednesday. She announced plans to raise taxes by £40 billion, and pledged a bumper investment in the National Health Service. U.K. borrowing costs rose as markets balked at the projected borrowing. POLITICO’s Stefan Boscia reports from London on the five things you need to know. IMF-WORLD BANK RECAP POLITICS TRUMPS FINANCE: With the U.S. election overshadowing last week’s annual meetings, the IMFC, the key decision-making body of the IMF, issued a predictable statement as the gathering came to a close — but omitted any reference to the current wars waging across the globe. Instead, it opted for a feeble “chair’s statement” noting it’s “not a forum to resolve geopolitical and security issues.” World is watching: But as POLITICO’s Adam Behsudi writes , the impact of the U.S. election was an overwhelming concern of developing countries present at last week’s gatherings. Regardless of who wins, they’re bracing for more protectionism. “We are bystanders to this all-important election,” said Nigeria’s Finance Minister Adebayo Olawale Edun, adding that the move toward protectionism “will work against the developing world’s ability to benefit from expanding trade.” NEW JOB: Former Colombian President and Nobel Peace Laureate Juan Manuel Santos has been named as the new Chair of the Elders. He takes over from Mary Robinson, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and Irish President who has held the role since 2018. “Part of leadership is knowing when to stand down and make space for others,” Robinson said as the move was announced, adding that she would continue to be involved with the group, particularly on climate change. PROGRAMMING NOTE SEE YOU NEXT MONTH: Global Playbook will next hit your inbox from the COP29 talks, starting Nov. 11 in Azerbaijan. If you’re in Baku, get in touch! Global Playbook couldn’t happen without: Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich. | 
