The stakes for Hochul

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Oct 31, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nick Reisman, Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin

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With Timmy Facciola

Gov. Kathy Hochul

Gov. Kathy Hochul has pressed to open field offices to aid down-ballot candidates and raise money for county Democratic committees. | Susan Watts/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

Gov. Kathy Hochul took a gamble this year when she became a key Democrat in the effort to flip five New York House seats.

If it pays off, Hochul will have friends in a new Democratic House majority.

Success would silence critics like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has blamed Hochul for House Democratic losses two years ago.

But if there are down-ballot disappointments for the party, Hochul will probably again be saddled with blame.

Republicans have been eager to link House Democratic candidates to the governor, whose favorable ratings are in the basement.

GOP campaigns are also bewildered by some Democrats’ decision to appear alongside Hochul — a move they say offers an unintended gift for vulnerable Republicans.

“I’m at a loss,” said Dave Catalfamo, a Republican strategist who is advising Rep. Marc Molinaro’s bid for a second term. “Her numbers are at a historic low for an incumbent New York governor.”

Hochul’s campaign defended the approach.

“The strategy is simple , Gov. Hochul has been focused on turning out a historic number of voters across the state and paving the way for Hakeem Jeffries to become speaker of the House,” spokesperson Jen Goodman told Playbook in a statement.

There’s a bull market case to be made for Hochul’s efforts.

The downsides may be minimal: Many battleground races will likely hinge on whether Vice President Kamala Harris can turn out Democrats.

The political rewards, meanwhile, loom large for a governor who could use a clear political win.

“She’s largely playing with house money — pun intended,” said Democratic operative Austin Shafran. “If the Democrats win, take over the House or just have a really good showing in New York, then she will have engendered a lot of goodwill among Democrats.”

Calling in those chits could help Hochul in her own campaign for a second term in 2026 — a reelection bid the governor has publicly committed to when asked whether she’s angling for a job in a potential Harris administration. ( Hochul has denied interest in a cabinet job.)

Simultaneously, she’s getting kudos for building out the infrastructure of the state Democratic Committee for the first time in generations.

The work has meant a combination of fundraising and direct contact with voters, all with an eye toward her own campaign in two years.

Hochul has pressed to open field offices to aid down-ballot candidates and raise money for county Democratic committees. Campaign workers have reported more than 4.5 million voter contacts this year.

“It was so transparently obvious that the party only served one campaign for the last decade-plus,” said Morgan Hook, a former communications adviser to ex-Gov. David Paterson. “Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, the party appears to be doing what it’s supposed to be doing right now.”

Still, challenges await New York Democrats after Election Day.

Some party officials are privately nervous about their prospects in two years when Hochul is slated to top the ticket.

They must also contend with the fallout from the felony corruption indictment of Mayor Eric Adams and the mushrooming scandals engulfing his inner circle.

Hochul isn’t the only party leader who faces a high-stakes November: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in striking distance of becoming the next speaker and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s Democrats are at risk of losing control over the chamber.

“If we’re looking at just the snapshot in time, sure, there’s pressure,” said Lupé Todd-Medina, a former adviser to Hochul and Jeffries. “But there’s always pressure. You always want to ensure the best for the nation, our state, the best for our city.” — Nick Reisman

HAPPY THURSDAY. AND HAPPY HALLOWEEN. There’s five days until Election Day. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.

 

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WHERE’S KATHY? Making a semiconductor technology announcement in Albany.

WHERE’S ERIC? Calling into 94.7 The Block, speaking at the NYPD recruit graduation ceremony and making a public safety-related announcement in Queens.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: When I went (as) Bill de Blasio a few years ago, zero people understood my costume. But I feel like Eric Adams is just more available to normies.” — Samir Lavingia, via the New York Post, who dressed up as the mayor in a Mets-Yankees ball cap holding a Turkish Airlines ticket.

ABOVE THE FOLD

Mike Johnson stumps for Anthony D'Esposito.

“Everybody in America and thus everybody in the world is watching what happens on Long Island,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said. | Emily Ngo/POLITICO

SPEAKER TAKES LI: House Speaker Mike Johnson fired up hundreds of Nassau County Republicans at a boisterous Wednesday evening rally for the vulnerable Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

In the final sprint to Election Day, Johnson (R-La.) stressed that the road to the House majority runs through the suburban stretch east of New York City. He praised the energy at the Franklin Square gathering, saying it was second only to that at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday, and he recorded a selfie-style video with the crowd in the background to send directly to the former president.

“Everybody in America and thus everybody in the world is watching what happens on Long Island,” Johnson said.

D’Esposito is one of five first-term Republicans in New York that Democrats hope to unseat — reclaiming the speaker’s gavel after the same races helped cost them control of the House in 2022.

Johnson and D’Esposito warned of the threat they said Democrats pose to the country and cited the blue crush of spending to defeat the freshman Republican.

D’Esposito, who trailed his Democratic rival Laura Gillen in a recent public poll, had a starker us-versus-them message, gesturing at the crowd of GOP loyalists as he said tens of millions were being spent against “all of you.”

“For far too long in this state, Democrats have put criminals ahead of law-abiding citizens,” the former cop said.

Johnson’s list of what he hopes to accomplish next year — especially if Republicans clinch the presidency, Senate and House — includes the extension of the Trump-era tax cuts that expire next year. He did not mention the state and local tax deduction, or SALT, cap that was part of that legislation and that D’Esposito and other blue-state Republicans want to increase. — Emily Ngo

CITY HALL: THE LATEST

 New York Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is pictured speaking.

An adviser for Public Advocate Jumaane Williams adviser said he isn’t planning to host a reception or fundraiser at the Somos conference | Craig Ruttle

CONFRONTING FEARS: Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is heading to the Somos conference in Puerto Rico next week as he prepares for the possibility of becoming acting mayor.

“I have never gone,” to the massive gathering of New York political players, Williams told Playbook. “I am very scared of flying.”

Two statewide campaigns, a citywide special election and a City Council speaker race weren’t enough to get him to San Juan. But if Adams’ legal challenges force him out of office, Williams would temporarily take over — and people close to him say he’d be likely to run in the special election too.

“I take any position I have very, very seriously,” Williams said, “and I think that’s an important place to be based on any sort of eventualities that would happen.“

A Williams adviser said he isn’t planning to host a reception or fundraiser at the conference but has been setting up private meetings after his expected Thursday night arrival.

Will the mayor attend? Adams spokesperson Fabien Levy said he couldn’t confirm the mayor’s plans for after Election Day. — Jeff Coltin

NO-SHOWS FOR SUMMER CAMP: About 9,000 students failed to show up for the city’s popular summer learning and enrichment program, officials told the City Council Wednesday.

Out of 110,000 students who received offers to participate in Summer Rising, 101,000 attended at least once, according to Angela Faloye, the Department of Education’s director of summer programming. The free, six-week initiative provides academics and summer camp.

Faloye did not say what those 9,000 pupils did instead but insisted attendance was otherwise steady.

Emma Vadehra, the DOE’s deputy chancellor of operations and finance, said the education department “did some outreach” and found fewer students attend later in the summer.

The hearing comes amid questions about whether the $240 million-a-year program is adequately meeting families’ needs.

Adams has yet to figure out how to finance the DOE’s $80 million contribution to it next year. Vadehra said Wednesday that conversations are ongoing. — Madina Touré

More from the city:

A lawsuit claims the city’s sweeps of encampments violate the rights of homeless people. (NY1)

The NYPD lies about resolving illegal parking complaints about half the time, according to a computer program monitoring on-street cameras. (Hell Gate)

A controversial plan to tear down and replace thousands of public housing apartments in Chelsea was approved by the NYCHA board. (Gothamist)

 

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NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is pictured.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's spokesperson Rich Azzopardi accused the panel of a “taxpayer-funded farce” and misusing its investigative authority. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP

CUOMO REFERRED: A House subcommittee probing the governmental response to the pandemic will allege former Gov. Andrew Cuomo made false statements to Congress and refer criminal charges to the U.S. Department of Justice, POLITICO reports.

The referral centers around Cuomo’s statements to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic about his involvement in the editing or reviewing of a controversial July 2020 report on Covid deaths of nursing home residents.

“Mr. Cuomo provided false statements to the Select Subcommittee in what appears to be a conscious, calculated effort to insulate himself from accountability,” Rep. Brad Wenstrup, the Ohio Republican who chairs the panel, wrote in the 107-page referral to Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi accused the panel of a “taxpayer-funded farce” and misusing its investigative authority.

He added the committee has “no basis for this pre-election MAGA exercise and affirmatively chose to act unethically in order to help their masters score cheap political points.”

Earlier Wednesday, an attorney for the ex-governor filed his own criminal referral to the Department of Justice that accused the House panel of “the misuse of government resources and the invasion of state prerogatives.”

The House panel’s referral comes at a sensitive moment for Cuomo, who has been considering a political comeback. — Nick Reisman

WALL ST. VS. MAIN ST: State tax revenue is coming in better than expected, thanks to a robust year for the financial services industry, but the Main Street economy’s growth is a lot more modest.

Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s office reported Wednesday that sales tax revenue between July and September increased by 1.4 percent over the same period a year ago, rendering it essentially flat.

The results are in line with a broad trend of declining growth from the sales tax after an inflation-induced spike.

“Local sales tax collections are growing more slowly than they were in the pre-pandemic period,” the Democratic official said. “Given this lower year-over-year growth, local officials should temper their expectations for future sales tax revenues.”

Wall Street, by comparison, generated more than $28 billion in revenue for the state — continuing its role as the state economy’s main driver.

Still, the money from the sales tax provides a window into how New Yorkers are spending their money and is a source of cash for local governments to offset potential property tax increases.

The budget news comes as Hochul prepares to fend off a push from activists to her political left to increase state spending on popular programs. — Nick Reisman

More from Albany:

Political campaigns are sending more text messages and some are misleading. (Times Union)

More than half of New York City’s state legislative races are uncontested next week. (Gothamist)

KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION

A mailer from the New York State Democratic Committee accusing NY-18 House candidate Alison Esposito of accepting campaign donations from Central Hudson lobbyists.

Rep. Pat Ryan has made a big deal of fighting Central Hudson over hiking rates despite a “customer-billing fiasco” that cost the CEO his job. | Courtesy of the New York State Democratic Committee

POWER PLAY: Nobody likes their utility company — but Rep. Pat Ryan is stretching the truth by accusing Republican challenger Alison Esposito of taking money from Central Hudson Gas & Electric’s lobbyists.

Lobbying firm Plummer Wigger PAC gave $3,000 to Lee Zeldin’s gubernatorial campaign in September 2022. Esposito was his running mate, but they gave to Zeldin, not the joint account. Plummer Wigger didn’t start working for Central Hudson until 2023. And the firm donated the same amount in 2021 to Ryan booster Gov. Kathy Hochul, Zeldin’s opponent.

"It is completely false and misleading to claim that Plummer & Wigger made any political contributions to Alison Esposito's campaign efforts,” Plummer Wigger’s Scott Wigger said.

Ryan has made a big deal of fighting Central Hudson over hiking rates despite a “customer-billing fiasco” that cost the CEO his job. So he’s hammering Esposito on the donation, asking her in a televised debate to explain it while the New York Dems sent a mailer accusing her of being in the pocket of Big Gas.

Esposito spokesperson Ben Weiner said it was “yet another blatant lie” showing Ryan has absolutely zero good policy or accomplishments to point to.

Ryan spokesperson Sam Silverman sarcastically offered “sincere apologies that bringing up corporate PAC donations from lobbyists for a billion-dollar monopoly to a career candidate has offended the lobbyist and failed politician in question.” — Jeff Coltin

More from the trail:

Suburban New York House candidates are racing to the political center. (ABC News)

The Working Families Party launches a digital ad urging its members in NY-17 to vote against the “fake candidate” on its ballot line. (City & State)

Democrat Mondaire Jones makes his closing pitch on abortion rights. (The Journal News)

NEW YORK STATE OF MIND

A Manhattan jury of 12 has been chosen to decide the fate of Daniel Penny, who put a homeless man in a fatal chokehold on a subway car last year. (New York Times)

New York City schools will scrap the one-day week before winter break. (POLITICO Pro)

American eel conservation efforts could be at risk with a Trump victory. (City & State)

 

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SOCIAL DATA

Edited by Daniel Lippman

MAKING MOVES: Na’ilah Amaru, the NY-based VP for policy, advocacy and government relations of Women Creating Change, has been named by the National Institute for Lobbying and Ethics as one of this year’s Top 100 Lobbyists for her work in grassroots advocacy and on issue campaigns.

MEDIAWATCH: NJ's largest newspaper, the Star-Ledger, and others will end print editions (Gothamist)

IN MEMORIAM – Per Talking Biz News’ Chris Roush: “Longtime business journalist James Ledbetter has died at the age of 60. He most recently was editor of thought leadership at KPMG. … He was also executive editor of The New York Observer. …

“Ledbetter joined the Observer from Clarim Media, where he served as chief content officer. Prior to this, he was the head of content at Sequoia Capital, editor in chief of Inc. magazine, editor of Reuters.com, and held key positions at Slate, Time and Fortune.”

— TOP-ED: “Endorsement-gate and the slow death of daily newspapers: The recent controversial decisions by the owners of The Washington Post and LA Times remind us of the growing pileup of publications owned by failing hobbyist media magnates,” by City and State’s Tom Allon.

WEEKEND WEDDING: Alexa Velickovich, comms manager at Signal Group and a POLITICO alum, and Laura Miller, assistant corporation counsel for the New York City Law Department, got married in Cancún, Mexico on Sunday. SPOTTED: Felicia Figueiredo, Brennan Chamberlin, Marc and James Sames and Paul Henderson. PicAnother pic  

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Dan Rather (93) … PIX 11’s Marvin Scott … POLITICO’s Betsy Woodruff Swan … CMW’s Michael Woloz Frank Bruni Jane Pauley … NBC’s Elias Miller … ProPublica’s Marilyn ThompsonSusan OrleanSam Tanenhaus Piper Perabo George BogdenCathy Cavender

Missed Wednesday’s New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here.

 

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