EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE — For a week that started with a news blizzard of mutinous Liberal backbenchers and the expulsion of Indian diplomats, it’s just a little strange that somehow by week’s end, we’re into Cabinet speculation season. Again. Everyone wants to know when the next shuffle is coming, after it came out four ministers are not running in the next election. The PM is going to want a front bench looking ready to head into the next election. MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, CARLA QUALTROUGH, FILOMENA TASSI and DAN VANDAL will not seek reelection. — Outside looking in: The news looks far worse from outside the fishbowl, since Trudeau is on the ropes. But to any Liberals worth their salt, these four names came as no surprise — life circumstances, etc. were the driving force and this was long expected. Key questions: → Are these four the only ones, or are there more announcements waiting in the wings? → When exactly will the shuffle come? → Why is this story landing now? Let’s pull out the CHARLIE DAY whiteboard and see if PEPE SILVIA is our next northern affairs minister. — Occam's razor: “The fact that this [news] came out [now] may be part of a fall strategy,” said McMillan Vantage’s JONATHAN KALLES . “We've seen ANDREW BEVAN and MARJORIE MICHEL go to the campaign. We've seen a bit of a different tone from the prime minister in the last few days. We'll see some new faces probably around Cabinet.” — Make ’em sweat: On the other hand, it’s hard not to notice the news also comes on the heels of a Schrödinger’s caucus rebellion — that slow-moving, gossip-fueled attempt to push out the leader, with quantity and gusto still unclear. But very soon — Wednesday’s caucus meet — it’s expected to come to a head. If PMO wants to pressure disgruntled backbenchers to back down, there’s no reason to announce a shuffle anytime soon — certainly not before the caucus airing of grievances. Maybe they’re actually in line for a promotion. And if there’s a Cabinet shuffle coming down the pipes, well … any frustrated Cabinet ministers might think carefully about their next words about PMJT. — Sage words: PMO might want to take its sweet time for more than just that reason. “When there's this many moving parts, it's incumbent to have a lot of conversations with members of caucus, and don't assume anything in terms of someone's willingness [to stick around],” says GREG MACEACHERN of KAN Strategies. Some minds may have changed over the past few months (hmm, what happened over the last few months again…). “There were a couple of weeks near the end of Prime Minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN’s term, where he had to have a couple of small Cabinet shuffles where PAUL MARTIN left Cabinet and then ART EGGLETON,” MacEachern noted, “so you want to really make sure that if you've got to make some decisions, it's going to be a one-and-done situation.” — Logical places to start speculating: The PM has a habit of promoting people who were in the finance parliamentary secretary role. See: FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR, SEAN FRASER, TERRY BEECH, etc. Those folks would be: RACHEL BENDAYAN and RYAN TURNBULL. — But also …: Someone like Manitoba MP TERRY DUGUID. Regional balance matters a lot in these calculations, and there are only four Liberal MPs from that province. Are you a likely Cabinet contender, or do you know someone who is? Are you KATIE TELFORD? Feel free to kick Playbook some names . — Timing options: A shuffle in the “coming weeks” is Ottawa-ese for: we’re not saying when, lol. In the shorter term, the PM could still decide to pull the trigger ahead of next week and quickly fill up some Cabinet slots. Mid-term would land sometime around the U.S. election, which is one — but by no means the only — calculation in the equation. “I don't think a U.S. election would dictate the timing of a shuffle, per se, but that's certainly a consideration,” one Liberal source said on background. — Check the calendar: “My guess is we'll get to the next break week, which is Remembrance Day week, which is also right after the U.S. election,” said Kalles. “And I suspect if there's going to be a change this fall, that's likely to be when you would see it.” There’s also that matter of our teetering Jenga Parliament. Four oppo days left, one NDP and three Conservative before Dec. 10. But the government controls when the op-days fall. — Longer term outlook: … when they get around to it. | 
