UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT — As hard as it might be to imagine today, there once was a time when presidential races unfolded across the entire nation, not just in a small universe of battleground states. In 1960, Richard Nixon campaigned in all 50 states after pledging in his convention speech to visit them all before Election Day. The 1976 presidential race between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter was fought across 30 states. In recent decades, however, the map of competitive states has narrowed considerably, and this year it’s especially small — just seven states constitute the battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At the moment, the race is exceptionally tight. Two percentage points mark the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in every one of those states, according to polling averages. To provide better insight into the seven battleground states, over the campaign’s final 27 days Nightly will run a series of interviews with POLITICO reporters who have recently been on the ground reporting in those states. Tonight, we’ll hear from Liz Crampton, a state policy reporter who was recently in Michigan. What issues are dominating the political debate in Michigan this year? Are they different from any of the other battleground states? The nationalization of local politics means that the dominant conversations in Michigan are pretty similar to the conversations playing out in Pennsylvania or Arizona. In Michigan and elsewhere, it’s all about the economy. What that looks like for the state House races, the level of the ballot that I pay particularly close attention to, are discussions about whether Michiganders are better off now under Democratic leadership — or if the state legislature should return to Republican control. And it’s all in the wonky policy details. Democrats, who surprise-flipped the state legislature in 2022, are boasting about the laws they enacted related to people’s bottom line: repealing the state pension tax comes up a lot with voters at the doors. Republicans, on the other hand, are blaming Democrats in Lansing for the nation’s high cost-of-living and inflation. Should the GOP reclaim the House next month, Republican leadership says an early order of business would be reversing a minimum wake hike ordered by the state Supreme Court, siding with the restaurant and tourism industry. The Harris campaign is mobilizing around abortion rights and the issue is a critical element in its messaging. But in Michigan, the legislature repealed a 1931 ban that criminalized providing abortion care and in 2022 voters passed an amendment to the state’s constitution guaranteeing the right to abortion. Has that affected either party’s approach to the issue or removed its salience from the presidential race there? Michigan Democrats can largely credit their capture of government statewide to that ballot initiative enshrining abortion rights that turned out the base en masse. And once Democrats had the gavel in the state legislature, they repealed a 1931 ban that criminalized providing abortion care. But it’s been more than two years since Roe fell, and while Democrats have had a stunning winning record due to the reproductive rights rallying cry, there are concerned whispers within Democratic circles about whether that momentum can be sustained, especially in a state like Michigan where voters may feel the issue has been taken care of by the party in charge. You hear Democrats in the state legislature talking about how protecting reproductive rights is not just about abortion care – lawmakers are quick to rattle off other urgent needs, like requiring private insurers to cover fertility treatments like IVF. We’ll find out in a few weeks if the Democratic fury over Dobbs remains. The Michigan Republican Party has been badly fractured in recent years. It’s been torn apart by bitter internal fights and election denialism, and is riddled with debt. Will that have an impact on Donald Trump’s campaign or his chances of winning the state? The Michigan Republican party is in the worst shape it’s been in decades. The rise of the fringe MAGA movement split the party, which arguably hit rock bottom under the leadership of former chair Kristina Karamo, who was ousted earlier this year and replaced by former Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Republicans say that Hoekstra – who is a strong supporter of Trump but not considered as far-right as past leaders – has brought the party back onto its feet, mainly by taking administrative steps like resuming fundraising, regaining access to its website and reopening a Lansing office that closed under Karamo as a cost-cutting measure. Michigan insiders say the party is singularly focused on helping Trump win Michigan – but just looking at the numbers, the GOP is still struggling. The latest financial report shows the party owes $184,000 in its state account and has only $384,000 on hand in its federal campaign account. And there’s the fact that Hoekstra hasn’t won over every single Michigan Republican active in the party – GOP delegates loudly booed him when he appeared onstage at the party convention this summer. Detroit and its suburbs delivered big margins for Joe Biden in 2020. But you spent some time recently in the Downriver region, just south of the city, which isn’t as Democratic. What did you see on the ground? Downriver is a true 50/50 region that captures the story of Trump over the past decade. It used to be a reliable Democratic pocket – and still has a strong union presence – but Republicans have eaten into that demographic in recent cycles thanks to the party’s anti-free trade populism guided by Trump. You can literally see Trump’s cultural hold in this area through the density of Trump memorabilia throughout Downriver – one house I remember installed a Trump cutout on its front door and painted “FELON 2024” on the windows. But I also spotted several houses right next door to the Trump displays with Harris-Walz memorabilia on their front lawns – the yard sign feuds are intense out there. Democrats won the governorship in 2018, and total control of the Michigan government in 2022 for the first time in four decades. But now, however, the state is a toss-up in the presidential election. What explains these seemingly contradictory political signals? It’s important to note that Democrats barely flipped the legislature in 2022: it came down to just a few districts where Democrats won by only several hundred votes. And Democrats only hold a two-seat majority in both chambers. Republicans point to a few strategic errors they blame for those losses, like waiting too late in the cycle to start sending mail, that they are not repeating this time around. Yet here’s one interesting wrinkle that gives Democrats hope: there are a lot of down ballot ticket splitters. Look at the election of state Sen. Darren Camilleri in 2020: Trump won his Downriver district by eight points but voters elected the Democratic lawmaker by five points. So there’s a plausible scenario where Trump wins Michigan, but Democrats hang onto the legislature. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.
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