What’s at stake in three border rematches

An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead
Oct 11, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

PROGRAMMING NOTE: The Inside Congress newsletter is off Monday for Indigenous Peoples Day, but we’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, Oct. 15.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.).

Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani is engaged in a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel again — and the issues they are scrapping over aren’t much different from battleground districts in other parts of the country. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

WHAT THESE BORDER DISTRICTS ARE WATCHING

Democrats insist they’re not taking Latino voters for granted, and that will be put to the test next month in three tough battleground districts that could end up being majority-makers.

These three districts each touch the U.S.-Mexico border and have large Latino populations: Arizona’s 6th District is roughly 25 percent Latino, New Mexico’s 2nd District is about 62 percent and Texas’ 15th District is about 81 percent. Each has seen millions of dollars in spending — much of it for Spanish-language ads — as the two parties battle to win over those swing voters.

Inside Congress took a look at the ads airing in those three races, and while it might be well known that Latinos have emerged as a key swing bloc in the presidential race, it’s clear that they will be just as crucial down the ballot with the House majority at stake. Together, the ads paint a picture of the voting bloc’s priorities and how candidates are seeking to address them.

Arizona’s 6th: In this district stretching south and east from Tucson, freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani is engaged in a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel again — and the issues they are scrapping over aren’t much different from battleground districts in other parts of the country. Ciscomani is seeking to distinguish himself from his party on a number of issues, including abortion and border security. One ad emphasizes his opposition to a federal abortion ban and support for state-level exceptions, pushing back on attacks from Engel and her allies. In another pro-Ciscomani ad, from the NRCC, the border and inflation are front and center. At a debate earlier this week, Engel chided Ciscomani for not supporting the Senate’s bipartisan border bill, which failed to advance to the House.

New Mexico’s 2nd: Spanish-language ads are playing an important role in this rematch race between freshman Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez and former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell, who served one term in the seat before losing to Vasquez. A Spanish-language Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee advertisement highlights Vasquez’s commitment to lowering the cost of prescription drugs and saving Social Security. Herrell, in her own advertisements, attacks his voting record on Capitol Hill: “We want a secure border, we want to hold criminals accountable, we want neighborhoods to be safe,” she says in one spot. Abortion is also playing a major role in this district.

Texas’ 15th: In yet another rematch, freshman GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz is again running against Democrat Michelle Vallejo, repeating their closely contested 2022 matchup in a district that stretches north from the border city of McAllen. But what’s interesting this cycle has been Vallejo’s shift toward embracing new funding and tough new policies on border security after running as a progressive last time around. A Spanish-language ad by House Majority PAC, a key Democratic group, said that Vallejo would work with Republicans to secure the South Texas border. An English-language ad by De La Cruz set in a barroom emphasizes her trustworthiness, mentioning health care and the border.

— Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Oct. 11, where we are excited for this three-day weekend.

THE LATEST ON HURRICANE DISASTER RELIEF

House GOP leadership is telling lawmakers that federal agencies have enough money right now to handle the recovery from hurricanes Helene and Milton until lawmakers return Nov. 12, Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) told reporters on Friday.

It’s the latest indication that Congress doesn’t intend to return to Washington early despite growing calls from lawmakers in both parties, as well as President Joe Biden . Speaker Mike Johnson has so far stood firm in saying there is no immediate need for action, and Bucshon agreed, saying there was no point in returning unless the relevant agencies sound the alarm.

“I think if the agencies say they're out of money, the answer would be yes,” he said, “but I think it sounds like … the agencies still have some reserve resources.”

Vehicle questions: Congressional leaders haven’t indicated yet if they will do a standalone bill to address the storms or if they will instead try to attach it to a larger piece of must-pass legislation. Congress is expected to clear the annual defense bill and another round of government funding before the end of the year.

Bucshon personally said he would support a stand-alone bill, putting him in common cause with some Florida conservatives whose districts have been impacted by the recent hurricanes.

“I have no problem with Congress passing a supplemental bill to fund FEMA and help them through the storm season,” Rep. Matt Gaetz posted on X this week. “But I don't want a FEMA supplemental to become a Christmas tree that everyone gets to hang their ornament on.”

Misinfo madness: You can also add Bucshon to the growing list of GOP lawmakers speaking out against the wave of misinformation that has accompanied both storms. The retiring Indiana Republican on Friday said “some of it’s driven by politics, some of it’s driven by social media from nonpoliticians but people who have a political ax to grind. …We need to talk about facts and avoid it.”

— Jordain Carney and Daniella Diaz, with assist from Jennifer Scholtes

‘SUPPORT’ ≠ ENDORSEMENT 

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), in an effort to win centrist voters as she tries to win a tough reelection bid, is touting the “support” of Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats. Just don’t call it an endorsement.

A campaign mailer sent out to Nebraskans included a photo and quote from King, saying, “I’ve been working with my Republican colleague, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, to make the Paid Family and Medical Leave tax credit permanent. By making this extension permanent on a bipartisan basis, we're prioritizing people over politics.” And in a recent local radio interview, Fischer said, “Angus King and I, he’s an independent, supports me,” also mentioning the paid leave program.

King, however, is not listed among the more than 1,000 endorsements on her campaign website, and a spokesperson for King told Inside Congress that he hasn’t formally endorsed Fischer, though his PAC Make It Work did give Fischer $5,500 this cycle.

Asked for comment, a Fischer spokesperson said, “she meant what she said, which is that Senator King supports her. And he’s not listed as a formal endorsement because, as King’s folks said, there hasn’t been an official endorsement.”

Besides paid leave, King and Fischer have worked together as the chair and ranking member, respectively, of the nuclear-focused Strategic Forces subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee. They wrote a joint letter to the editor of the Washington Post last year about nuclear-force structure.

— Daniel Lippman

HUDDLE HOTDISH

Two Latino lawmakers share the art of tortilla rolling.

Trump has the Thune swoon.

QUICK LINKS 

Jon Tester pushes for ticket-splitters in a Montana Senate race that appears to be slipping away , from Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V at NBC News

Maryland Senate debate starts civilly, then veers into charges of ‘lies,’ from Katie Shepherd and Erin Cox at the Washington Post

Slotkin asks, ‘Where’s our Project 2025?’ while campaigning with Ossoff in Ann Arbor, from Andrew Roth at Michigan Advance

Molinaro, Riley in bitter NY-19 rematch defined by vitriol, from Dan Clark at the Times Union

House Democrats Gird for Debate Over Committee Seniority System, from Maeve Sheehey at BGov

Senate Republicans to save millions of dollars on ads — thanks to the FEC, from Ally Mutnick, Jessica Piper and Madison Fernandez

TRANSITIONS 

Send your transitions to insidecongress@politico.com!

MONDAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

MONDAY AROUND THE HILL

Zzz.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Graydon Daubert was the first to correctly guess that John Adams did not attend Thomas Jefferson’s inauguration.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Graydon: In October 1973, Spiro Agnew became the second vice president to resign. Who was the first vice president to resign, and why did he resign?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com .

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