| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | 
The U.S. administration is trying to push Yahya Sinwar’s death as a reason to renew cease-fire talks. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images | With help from Connor O’Brien, Phelim Kine, Daniel Lippman and Rosie Perper Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS are signaling that the killing of Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR could be the moment for Israel to declare victory and wind down its campaign in Gaza. But Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU says it’s anything but the endpoint. And Netanyahu has a track record of ignoring the Democratic administration in Washington. “Evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” Netanyahu said today as he confirmed Sinwar’s death. The Israeli leader didn’t get into details about what lies next. But he has many incentives to keep up some sort of fight against the militant group that killed 1,200 Israelis last October, launching a war that has now spread well beyond Gaza. The U.S. administration is trying to push Sinwar’s death as a reason to renew cease-fire talks. “There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,” Biden said in a statement issued after Netanyahu’s speech. “Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists.” Harris, speaking from the presidential campaign trail in Wisconsin, said “Hamas is decimated and its leadership is eliminated. This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” Still, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have pressured the prime minister not to accept cease-fire deal proposals in the past. Netanyahu needs those partners to stay in power — and to possibly stay out of jail on the corruption charges he currently faces. Sinwar’s death could be a significant political boon for Netanyahu and give him more political backing to keep up the fight while Israel has all the momentum. Sinwar’s death will also erode the group’s effectiveness, at least in the short-term. “Time will tell, but I think this is a catastrophic blow against the Hamas organization,” said NATHAN SALES, a former top U.S. coordinator for counterterrorism. Killing a terrorist group’s top leader can handicap the organization, Sales said. “With Sinwar its effect will be particularly pronounced because of the way he ran the group, as he centralized all Hamas planning and decision-making with himself.” But the reality is that Hamas will likely replace Sinwar. Even while leaderless, it still has the ability to carry out rocket attacks and other strikes on Israeli targets. Its fighters already manage to keep resurfacing in areas that Israel has repeatedly cleared in Gaza over the past year. This is partly due to Israel’s unwillingness to hold some such areas , not to mention its lack of a clear plan for establishing governance, rebuilding infrastructure and other so-called “day-after” efforts for Gaza. The territory is a chaotic mess; insurgencies thrive in such conditions. Sinwar’s death also calls into question the fate of around 100 hostages, including seven U.S. citizens. (One-third of those hostages are believed to be dead.) Hamas could react to Sinwar’s death by launching more attacks or killing more hostages, as they did in response to the August killing of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran. Netanyahu in his speech promised clemency for any Hamas militant who safely released hostages but vowed to target any militant who harmed those being held captive. He also implied that continued fighting may be necessary to free the hostages.“To the dear families of the hostages, I say: This is an important moment in the war,” he said, adding, "the return of our hostages is an opportunity to achieve all our goals and it brings the end of the war closer.” The families of the American hostages released a joint statement in the wake of the news of Sinwar’s death, saying: “It is now time for every single hostage held in Gaza to be returned to their families. No more delays and no more demands.”
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Lockheed Martin is leveraging advanced commercial technologies, such as artificial intelligence, edge computing and 5G.MIL® connectivity to meet the evolving challenges of a more complex battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | A TALE OF TWO TRIPS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is in Brussels to present his victory plan and rally support from allies on the continent as the war approaches its third year, and a third winter that could exacerbate suffering across the country. And his pitch is stark. “Ukraine’s survival can only be ensured by joining NATO or giving Kyiv nuclear weapons,” he said at a European Council summit . “NATO countries are not at war. People are all alive in NATO countries. And thank God. That is why we choose NATO. Not nuclear weapons.” Zelenskyy is also warning that this winter could be devastating for his country, our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ reports, as Russia continues to batter the already-beleaguered Ukrainian energy system. Meanwhile, Biden is en route to Germany, our own MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG and ELI STOKOLS report, in an effort to assuage angst about former President DONALD TRUMP and the future of the U.S.-E.U. relationship. TACKLING CHINA’S SUPPORT FOR MOSCOW: The White House said that Chinese firms are directly providing Russia with weapons for its invasion of Ukraine, a major public confirmation of deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow. As our own PHELIM KINE reports (for Pros!) , the Treasury Department sanctioned two Chinese firms that the Biden administration is accusing of designing, producing and exporting Garpiya series long-range unmanned aerial attack drones that Russia is deploying in its war on Ukraine. Two Russian entities on the receiving end of those exports are also joining the sanctions list. That direct support for Moscow’s war machine constitutes an “egregious” violation of Beijing’s previous assurances that it wasn’t supplying weapons to enable Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s ongoing war against Ukraine, said a senior administration official who briefed reporters Thursday on condition of anonymity. In the past, the White House had confirmed that Russia is importing “dual-use technologies” that have both civilian and military function, but stopped short of accusing China of providing weapons. But don’t expect Beijing to back off anytime soon. Russia and China will likely announce a deepening of their military ties next week when the BRICS countries — a grouping of emerging economies centered around Brazil, Russia, India and China — convenes for its annual summit in Kazan, Russia next week. “We fully expect this trend of deepening [military] support and relationship to continue,” the official said. Read: CRINK: It’s the new ‘Axis of Evil’ by our own STUART LAU IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP TEES OFF ON UKRAINE: Trump is (still) keeping everyone guessing about how his administration would approach support for Kyiv if he wins in November. As our own IRIE SENTNER reports, the Republican nominee told podcaster PATRICK BET-DAVID that Zelenskyy “should never have let that war start. That war is a loser.” Trump also reiterated his claims that Zelenskyy is “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen,” pointing to the large amounts of military assistance the U.S. has provided Kyiv since Russia invaded in February 2022. The comments come just a few weeks after Trump met with Zelenskyy at Trump Tower in New York and as angst continues in Europe that a Trump presidency could disrupt U.S. support for Ukraine and place more of the onus of supporting Kyiv’s war effort on European capitals. Read: Private aid is crucial to Ukraine’s war. Both are lagging by DANIEL BLOCK in POLITICO Magazine.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TRANSATLANTIC ATTITUDES: A transatlantic poll is showing that American and European voters share similar concerns about the threats Chinese and Russian technology could pose to their countries’ national security. More than 70 percent of registered voters in the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Belgium said that Europe and the U.S. should work together to thwart Chinese digital threats such as tech espionage and data theft. The poll, conducted by American Edge Project and research firm Mercury Analytics between August 27 and September 16, 2024, surveyed 4,508 adults across the five countries, all of whom are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
| | FROZEN CONFLICTS: NATO wants to beef up its Arctic telecommunications network and challenge Russia in the planet’s most northern latitudes. As our own JOSHUA POSANER reports , a bloc of 13 countries agreed to push forward the Northlink initiative and build out a space-based military-grade communication system across the Arctic using existing commercial satellites. The move comes as Russia has stepped up its presence in the region, which it borders. And the U.S. has warned that Russia may launch jamming attacks on satellites in the area and conduct other mischief in the region. It’s the alliance’s latest foray into space security and its latest move to beef up its presence in the Arctic. As Joshua writes, NATO doesn’t operate its own satellites but a dedicated space command center was opened at Germany’s Ramstein air base in 2019, a year after space was declared the alliance’s fifth theater of conflict. And on the sidelines of this year’s NATO summit in Washington, the U.S., Canada and Finland pledged to work together to build new icebreakers and collaboratively expand Arctic-specific defense production.
| | SPACE FOR DISAGREEMENT: A bipartisan group of 125 lawmakers wants leaders of the Senate and House Armed Services committees to pump the brakes on a Biden administration plan to unilaterally transfer certain Air National Guard units into the Space Force, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports (for Pros!). The lawmakers — led by Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.) and Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) — urged committee leaders to support language in a compromise defense policy bill that would prohibit moving Guard units without their governors' consent. The House included that language in its version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act while the Senate sided with the Pentagon, which proposed the transfer as the easiest and cheapest way to provide the Space Force with part-time personnel it needs. "We recognize the urgency of the future threats facing our national security, and we support the Department of the Air Force’s efforts to prepare," they wrote. "We also believe that the desired end can be achieved through dialogue with affected states, without undermining the foundational principles that have guided the National Guard for over a century." State governors and lawmakers from both parties have opposed transferring Air Guard units without their sign-off on the grounds it will weaken their roles as heads of their state National Guards. Lawmakers and Guard officials from space-heavy states have instead pushed to create a new Space National Guard to complement the Space Force.
| | | SLAMMING THE HOUTHIS: While Israel and the U.S. figure out what to do following Sinwar’s death, Washington is taking clear aim at another Iran-backed militant group — the Houthis in Yemen. The State Department unveiled new sanctions against allies of the Houthis this morning, sanctioning five individuals and five companies that are part of a network trafficking weapons to the group. And last night, U.S. B-2 stealth bombers struck Houthi targets in Yemen, focusing on the militant group’s network of underground bunkers. The strike marked the first time since the end of the Obama administration that American stealth bombers were used in combat. (Former President BARACK OBAMA used them against ISIS targets in Libya on his last day in office.)
| | | | — AARON CHAN is now legislative affairs adviser for the Office of the National Cyber Director. He most recently was special assistant in the Office of the Administrator at FEMA. — JEFF MARSCHNER of the Hoover Institution’s D.C. office was recently promoted to assistant director for media and government relations and D.C. operations. LAUREN WRIGHT, who previously worked in Senator JOHN McCAIN's office and at the Aspen Institute, was named senior manager of government relations focusing on Capitol Hill and executive branch engagement. — Egypt removed Gen. ABBAS KAMEL, the country’s spy chief and one of its principal negotiators for a Gaza cease-fire. No reason was given for the swap, per The New York Times’ VIVIAN YEE, and the Egyptian government has named Kamel’s replacement, Maj. Gen. HASSAN MAHMOUD RASHAD.
| | | | — VICTOR JACK, COSTANZA GAMBARINI, KARL MATHIESEN, LOUISE GUILLOT and HANNE COKELAERE, POLITICO: Revealed: Putin's sanctions-busting shadow fleet is spilling oil all over the world — BEN BLAND, Foreign Affairs: The president who never picked a side — The Editors, National Review: Biden-Harris threat against Israel is a moral disgrace
| | — United States Institute of Peace, 8:30 a.m.: Sustaining peace in Bougainville: The future of the Bougainville Peace Agreement — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8:30 a.m.: Architects of the U.S.-Japan alliance: Past, present, and future — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Military Academy at West Point's Center for the Study of Civil-Military Operations, 8:45 a.m.: The future of critical minerals and national security — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Foreign Policy Institute's North Africa Initiative, 10 a.m.: North Africa in China's strategic thinking — Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Integration for innovation: A report of the CNAS defense technology task force — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute and the Wilson Center's Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition, 10 a.m.: Disrupting Russia's artillery supply chain — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12:30 p.m.: A book discussion on “A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force" — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 2 p.m.: 2024 Women's International Leadership Summit with the theme "Envisioning a Just World" featuring remarks from Kosovo President VJOSA OSMANI Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wants to use stealth bombers against her foes. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is trying to restrain her military might. CLARIFICATION: A header in Wednesday’s newsletter misstated how Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) criticized Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
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