Your guide to the most $$$ legislative races

Presented by Fix LCFS: Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Oct 29, 2024 View in browser   By Lindsey Holden Presented by Fix LCFS The California Democratic Party is spending big to defend state Sen. Josh Newman's Orange County seat. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP CASH GRAB: State political parties are concentrating their legislative spending on a handful of very tight Democrat-on-Republican races — in some cases, dropping more money on newcomers than incumbents. The California Democratic Party has funneled a large number of dollars to two open districts, according to data compiled by California Target Book: a northern Los Angeles County Senate seat previously held by Republican Scott Wilk and a San Diego County Assembly seat previously held by Democrat Brian Maienschein. Meanwhile, the California GOP has focused more on incumbents. A Playbook analysis also shows the party has also been dedicating millions of dollars to ballot measure campaigns, doling out major cash to oppose rent control initiative Proposition 33 and support tough-on-crime Proposition 36. Target Book data includes state- and county-level party contributions through Oct. 26. Playbook’s ballot measure data includes only state party spending through Oct. 24. Unsurprisingly in deep-blue California, Democrats have far more money to play with than Republicans. While all legislative hopefuls want a piece of that sweet, sweet party money pie, officials say their budget is based on the dollars and cents of different media markets, candidates’ fundraising abilities, their existing campaign infrastructure and other factors. Both parties resist the characterization that big spending means they’re prioritizing certain candidates over others. While Democrats are highly unlikely to lose their majority in either chamberhouse, gains or losses could play into legislative leaders’ ability to pass challenging legislation. Sometimes, extra Democrats are needed for votes requiring two-thirds of lawmakers, in case some of their caucus colleagues don’t sign on. Here are the big party draws we’re watching this election. Where Dems are spending: Democrats have long known Santa Clarita Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo, Fresno Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria and Orange County Sen. Josh Newman would be the most vulnerable lawmakers this election cycle. All three are in tough-to-defend purple districts that forced them to the middle on some issues. Case in point:, the recent special session bill to limit gas price spikes pushed by fellow Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom. None of them voted in favor of the legislation, and Soria actually voted against it. The party — including both state- and county-level organizations — has spent more than $1.2 million on Schiavo and Soria to defend them during the general election, according to Target Book. Democrats have put nearly $3.9 million toward protecting Newman, who is running in largely unfamiliar territory after redistricting put him into state Sen. Dave Min ’s area, Target Book found. Min is now running for Congress, leaving Newman to defend the district in an expensive media market. Newman, Schiavo and Soria aside, the party has poured more money into potentially picking up additional districts. It’s dropped more than $4.2 million on Kipp Mueller, who’s vying to take over Wilk’s seat. Democrats have also invested more than $3.8 million in Darshana Patel, who’s trying to succeed Maienschein. And they’ve put up more than $3.4 million for Chris Duncan, who’s back for a rematch against GOP Assemblymember Laurie Davies in a district that includes pieces of San Diego and Orange counties. “We assess each of those seats and determine what we believe it takes to win based upon the candidate we've endorsed, issues within the community and the resources that are available across a pretty diverse set of seats across the state,” California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks told Playbook. Where the GOP is spending: The state GOP is employing a different strategy. It’s going on defense to protect incumbents while also putting a big chunk of limited Republican dollars toward ballot measures. A Playbook analysis shows the party has spent more than $1.8 million fighting Proposition 33 and at least $1.1 million backing Proposition 36. Republicans have also spent more than $905,000 supporting Proposition 35, a Medi-Cal funding initiative Newsom is strongly against. On the candidate side, state- and county-level organizations have spent the most money — about $1.4 million — protecting Davies, according to Target Book. The party has also contributed more than $1.1 million to protect Palm Springs-area Assemblymember Greg Wallis, who’s locked in a rematch with Democratic challenger Christy Holstege. Their 2022 race was an insanely close one — Wallis won by just 85 votes. Republicans have spent about $1 million defending Assemblymember Josh Hoover in the Sacramento suburbs. Hoover flipped his district in 2022, and he’s being challenged by Democrat Porsche Middleton. In terms of newcomers, the GOP has funneled more than $950,000 to Kristie Bruce-Lane, Patel’s opponent in Maienschein’s district. It’s also given more than $822,000 to Joanna Garcia-Rose, who’s trying to unseat Soria in the Central Valley. “The calculus of how each dollar is spent reflects a tailored approach to each race,” California GOP spokesperson Ellie Hockenbury in a statement to Playbook, “but our mission remains consistent: securing victories that will help steer California back onto a path of prosperity.” IT’S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com. A message from Fix LCFS: GOVERNOR NEWSOM AND CHAIR RANDOLPH, VOTE “NO” ON THE LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD! The LCFS remains broken, rewarding polluters and ignoring the health impacts of dirty fuels on marginalized communities. Environmental justice, labor and clean air leaders are asking California Air Resources Board (CARB) members to vote “NO” on the LCFS! Learn more about how we can FIX the LCFS!   WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY David DePape already faced a 30-year federal prison sentence for bludgeoning Paul Pelosi with a hammer. | San Francisco Police Department via AP REPEAT SENTENCING: The man convicted of attacking former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband in 2022 today received a state sentence of life in prison without parole, the Associated Press reported. David DePape already faced a 30-year federal prison sentence for bludgeoning Paul Pelosi with a hammer after breaking into the couple’s San Francisco home. A federal jury convicted DePape of assaulting a federal official’s family member and attempting to kidnap a federal official. In a separate California trial, a jury in June found DePape guilty of state charges, including aggravated kidnapping, false imprisonment of an elder and first-degree burglary. He will serve the state sentence concurrent with the federal one. During an address to the court prior to sentencing, DePape spouted Sept. 11 conspiracy theories and statements about his government-appointed attorneys working against him. Judge Harry Dorfman said he intended for the sentence to ensure “Mr. DePape will never get out of prison, he can never be paroled.”   A message from Fix LCFS:   CAMPAIGN TRAIL Congressional Leadership Fund is paying for Vietnamese-language streaming ads attacking GOP Rep. Michelle Steel's Democratic opponent. | Chris Carlson/AP MULTILINGUAL MESSAGING: With a week left until Election Day, the House GOP’s top outside group is running its first ad entirely in Vietnamese in a hotly-contested Orange County battleground district, our Madison Fernandez reported today. Congressional Leadership Fund is airing the streaming service ad opposing Democrat Derek Tran in California’s 45th District, where 54 percent of residents speak a language other than English at home, according to census data. Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, is trying to unseat GOP Rep. Michelle Steel. As Playbook has previously reported, Steel, who is Korean American, has been campaigning against Tran by reaching out to the district’s Vietnamese voters with anti-Communist tropes. The Vietnamese-language ad says Tran represented a client accused of sexual assault and has ties to opponents of property tax-limiting Proposition 13. CLF told POLITICO it has spent $1.5 million on streaming ads in the district this cycle. RECALL SUPPORT: The campaign to recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao got a boost today from the San Francisco Chronicle’s editorial board, which endorsed the ouster effort in a scathing fashion. The board hit Thao on her handling of the city’s budget, including a plan to close Oakland’s spending deficit that could result in future cuts, as well as the deal to sell the Coliseum. The endorsement called the stadium sale “the equivalent of selling your house to pay your credit card bill.” The board also criticized Thao’s management and organizational skills, particularly missing the deadline for a retail theft grant application. The endorsement said a June FBI raid on her house that “compounded distrust among Oakland residents could hamper her ability to govern effectively.” “At such a pivotal moment for Oakland, the city needs a leader who inspires confidence and has the competence to turn big problems around,” the board wrote. “Thao’s record shows that she is not that mayor. Voters should recall her.” The Chronicle’s recall endorsement comes as Oaklandside reports that many Bay Area elected officials oppose the campaign. Although former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf recently said she supports the recall, three City Council members have said they’re against it, along with an Alameda County supervisor. State Sen. Nancy Skinner and Rep. Barbara Lee have also said they oppose the recall, and the overall concept of recalls. IN OTHER NEWS Xavier Becerra was back in Sacramento today for the third time this month. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP HOMETOWN HERO: U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra can’t get enough of Sacramento. The C.K. McClatchy High School alum was back in town today for the third time this month, this time to promote health insurance open enrollment season. It comes as Becerra has mulled leaving the Biden administration to compete for California governor. He appeared alongside Reps. Doris Matsui and Ami Bera, as well as the new California HHS Secretary Kim Johnson and Covered CA Executive Director Jessica Altman, to tout the state’s record low 6.4 percent uninsured rate. Despite the 2026 speculation, Becerra said not to read too much into his many guest appearances around town these days. “I’m here on official business as secretary,” Becerra told Playbook. “There’s a lot going on in California … so right now, all business. All official business.” — Rachel Bluth ABORTION DEAL: A Northern California hospital facing charges over its alleged refusal to terminate a pregnancy has agreed to provide emergency abortions in line with state law under a tentative deal reached with state Attorney General Rob Bonta, court records show. The agreement was filed with Humboldt Superior Court by Bonta’s office on Monday after the attorney general brought an injunction against Providence St. Joseph Hospital in Eureka. It must still be signed by a judge to take effect. Bonta’s office launched a lawsuit last month against the hospital for allegedly denying a woman an abortion due to a hospital policy that prohibits doctors from terminating a pregnancy when a fetal heartbeat is detected, per the filing. The woman said she therefore had to drive 12 miles while miscarrying to be treated at a different hospital. Under the agreement, the Catholic hospital would allow doctors to terminate a pregnancy when it puts the patient’s health in serious jeopardy or could lead to serious impairment or dysfunction, adding more specificity to what’s already required under state law. The hospital also agreed not to transfer pregnant patients to another hospital until they have been treated and stabilized. — Rachel Bluth A message from Fix LCFS: CALIFORNIA CANNOT AFFORD TO ADOPT A BROKEN CLIMATE POLICY! Regulators failed to fix one of California’s oldest climate programs. Our common-sense updates to prioritize zero-emission, electric technologies that clean up pollution from vehicles were ignored. CARB has an opportunity to try again. We can include jet fuel in the program to cut emissions from one of the state's dirtiest industrial sectors. We can limit the glut of out-of-state biofuels and end junk factory farm gas offsets that reward polluters and harm communities of color. The state failed to fix the LCFS but we can start again. Learn more about why CARB must vote "NO" on the LCFS!   WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY — Former Uber chief legal officer Tony West has a big role in his sister-in-law Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest. (The Washington Post) — Passports, bibles and ashes: What cities take when sweeping homeless encampments , according to people who were displaced. (ProPublica) — Remembering baseball at a Japanese internment camp during World War II as Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani takes center stage in the World Series. (Los Angeles Times) AROUND THE STATE — How a Southern California beach town brought its homeless numbers to “functionally zero.” (Los Angeles Times) — A handful of California cities are poised for big changes in housing rules if state residents approve a rent control ballot measure next month. (CalMatters) — Tech layoffs are slowing in the second half of 2024, at least when compared to earlier this year. (The Mercury News) — A South Bay businesswoman convicted of fraud walked free after Donald Trump commuted her prison sentence — only to commit fraud again 42 days later , a federal jury found Friday. — Can Newsom’s proposed tax credit expansion for California’s film and TV industry save Hollywood? (Los Angeles Times) — compiled by Tyler Katzenberger   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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