3 questions after Patronis picks Congress

Nov 26, 2024

Presented by

In this Oct. 29, 2019 file photo Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis speaks in Tallahassee, Florida.

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis speaks in Tallahassee, Florida. | Steve Cannon/AP

Good morning and welcome to Tuesday.

President-elect DONALD TRUMP has done it again. He keeps taking apart and reshaping Florida’s political landscape, while putting pressure on Gov. RON DESANTIS.

On Monday, Trump endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer JIMMY PATRONIS for House District 6, all but ensuring he’ll be replacing former Rep. MATT GAETZ in Congress in the deep-red district. The endorsement followed that of state Rep. RANDY FINE for House District 6 over the weekend.

But Trump's endorsement does far more than equip both men with a one-way ticket to Congress. It also reshuffles seats across the state and sets up a potential collision course with DeSantis over influencing Florida’s future.

Here are three big themes to watch:

1. What happens to the 2026 governor’s race? Patronis was among those who’d been weighing a run. Now that he and Trump-administration-bound Rep. MIKE WALTZ are likely out of that race in favor of different jobs, that helps clear the field for a contest that Trump has already shown a keen interest in shaping.

Possible GOP contenders remaining include Rep. BYRON DONALDS and Florida Agriculture Commissioner WILTON SIMPSON. Gaetz, too, has been openly toying with the idea of running as of late. More DeSantis-aligned candidates for governor would include Lt. Gov. JEANETTE NUÑEZ or Florida Attorney General ASHLEY MOODY.

2. What happens to the CFO job? With Patronis running, DeSantis has an opening to choose Florida’s next chief financial officer.

Already running for the job is Trump-endorsed state Sen. JOE GRUTERS, with whom DeSantis has a volatile history. Gruters intends to remain in the 2026 CFO race, even floating the idea that DeSantis could go ahead and appoint him — a scenario that many who know the relationship find preposterous.

If DeSantis wants to end Gruters’ political career, the CFO election is one way to try. The governor could appoint someone as a caretaker for the job. But at least eight Tallahassee insiders have floated DeSantis loyalist state Sen. BLAISE INGOGLIA. He recently acknowledged he was “seriously considering” running for the seat anyway in 2026.

It would be risky for DeSantis to go up against a Trump-endorsed candidate. There’s also the possibility that Trump could simply pluck Gruters out of Florida and give him a spot in his administration (though Gruters seems happy to pursue the CFO).

3. How far does DeSantis go to make peace? The CFO job isn’t DeSantis’ only opportunity to shape Florida. He still has a decision to make about the Senate seat that MARCO RUBIO will soon vacate to become Trump’s secretary of state.

Choosing someone like Trump daughter-in-law LARA TRUMP, the Republican National Committee co-chair, would undoubtedly be a peace offering to Trump. But DeSantis just defeated broadly popular voter amendments on abortion and pot — the latter of which had Trump’s backing. As a result, DeSantis supporters are split over whether showing fealty to Trump is the only way for the governor to guarantee his future in the GOP.

That’s because DeSantis has other options. Choosing his loyalists could create opportunities for him to make even more selections for state office. DeSantis could, for instance, appoint Moody to the Senate and another loyalist such as Chief of Staff JAMES UTHMEIER as attorney general. This type of move would give DeSantis openings to shape the state in his own image, rather than cede it to Trump’s.

— Gary Fineout contributed.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Florida Playbook will be off Thursday for Thanksgiving and on Friday. We'll be back on Monday, Dec. 2.

A message from Instagram:

Introducing Instagram Teen Accounts: limits for teens, peace of mind for parents

Parents want their teens to grow and thrive - and to make sure they’re staying safe.

That’s why Instagram is launching Teen Accounts, with automatic protections limiting who can contact teens and the content they can see. Putting built-in limits in place for teens, so parents can have more peace of mind.

Learn more.

CAMPAIGN MODE

FOR THE CALENDAR — The primary race to replace Waltz is Jan. 28 and the general is April 1, per Florida’s secretary of state. The dates for District 6 are the same as for District 1, even though Waltz hasn’t resigned yet. Trump tapped him to be his next national security adviser, a job that doesn’t require Senate confirmation.

GAETZ VACANCY FIGHT — Fighter pilot JEFF WITT on Monday became the latest candidate to announce he’ll be running for Gaetz’s seat. Witt rolled out his decision through Trump-favorite Fox News, several hours before Trump announced he’d be backing Patronis.

Combat veteran NATHAN NELSON, who worked in Gaetz’s office as his director of military affairs, also told Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles that he was running.

It’s not clear how many Republicans might drop out now that Trump backs Patronis. GOP state Rep. MICHELLE SALZMAN promptly got behind Patronis and said she'd stay in the Legislature.

But State Rep. JOEL RUDMAN is staying in the race. His campaign senior adviser, NICK VAUGHN, told Playbook that Rudman would be running as the underdog and working to make the case that he has “a spine of steel” like Gaetz and was “the most America First candidate in the race.” Rudman is spending Thanksgiving week at the Albemarle Estate at Trump Winery and told Playbook in a separate interview that he had Trump T-shirts to wear all week.

Rudman, who’s a family doctor, first ran for the state House in 2022 and the governor backed his bill allowing health care providers to refuse medical services that clash with their moral or religious beliefs. He said he would stay in the race because his decision to run “wasn’t contingent on it being an easy race.”

He filed paperwork to resign from his state House seat beginning Jan. 1, so he won’t be participating in the March session. His campaign said he would hammer Patronis over the costs of property insurance — which fall under a CFO’s purview — and over the fact that he doesn’t technically reside in the district.

Patronis previously ran for the seat in 2013 against Gaetz, but withdrew before voting. He was in the Florida House for eight years before then-Gov. RICK SCOTT appointed him to the Public Service Commission and then CFO. He twice ran and was reelected to the seat.

Patronis stayed neutral in the 2024 GOP presidential primary until DeSantis withdrew, and then backed Trump (though not through political contributions).

GOP GETS MOTIVATED — Republican Party of Florida Chair EVAN POWER urged members in a newsletter on Monday to “immediately return to campaign mode” so that the District 1 and 6 seats can be replaced with “strong, conservative Republicans.”

That’s almost guaranteed due to the electoral makeup in those areas. But Power wrote that there was “simply no room for complacency” that would risk the seats going to “leftist Democrats.”

RETURN TO LEGISLATURE? — Former state Senate Minority Leader LAUREN BOOK just filed to run in Democratic-leaning Senate District 37, reports Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner. The seat opens up in 2028, unless the current occupant, Senate Minority Leader JASON PIZZO, decides to get in the 2026 gubernatorial race.

REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss.

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

GETTING TRUMP’S EAR — DEI opponent CHRISTOPHER RUFO, who influenced DeSantis in shaping education policy in Florida, is gearing up to do the same under the Trump administration, reports Douglas Belkin of The Wall Street Journal.

ACCORDING TO WSJ: “Rufo said he is meeting with members of the Trump administration next month. He has said he thinks colleges and universities have been taken over by the left, and he wants to recapture them by cutting federal money to schools that continue to engage in DEI practices. He also wants to excise race-based affirmative action from any institution with which the federal government does business. He has a particular animus toward elite universities, which he says traded merit and rigor for neo-Marxism and discrimination against white and Asian people.”

Special counsel Jack Smith speaks at a lectern.

Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to reporters in Washington on June 9, 2023. | Alex Brandon/AP

SCENE OF THE ALLEGED CRIME — Special counsel JACK SMITH has moved to drop two criminal cases against Trump, including allegations that he hoarded classified documents at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, reports POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein.

POLITICO reports: “In court filings Monday, Smith said he consulted with Justice Department officials about whether an ongoing prosecution against a person elected president might continue. Officials in the department’s Office of Legal Counsel, Smith said, concluded that a longstanding prohibition on prosecuting a sitting president would apply to pending cases against Trump.”

‘TRUMP BUMP’? — Realtors say there’s been a ton more interest in buying in Palm Beach County ever since Trump’s election, reports Kimberly Miller of The Palm Beach Post.

EPONYMOUS — Hialeah is pushing for a street named after Trump, and a vote on the issue will take place among Miami-Dade Commissioners on Dec. 3. Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since 1988.

“The item would force Democrats on the County Commission, which is officially nonpartisan, to decide whether to support honoring the incoming Republican president,” reports the Miami Herald’s Douglas Hanks.

A message from Instagram:

DATELINE D.C.

FEDERAL RESILIENCE GRANTS — The National Fish and Wildlife Foundation and NOAA on Monday announced that eight projects in Florida will receive nearly $9 million to support nature-based solutions for coastal resilience. The Florida grants are part of $139 million awarded for projects in 31 coastal states and U.S. territories. A list and description of the grant projects can be found here.

— Bruce Ritchie

— The deadline to apply for FEMA aid following Hurricanes Helene and Milton has been extended to Jan. 7, reports Gabriella Pinos of WUSF.

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

HAPPY THANKSGIVING — The governor gave state workers five days off to celebrate the holiday when counting the weekend, starting with closing state offices on Wednesday.

Workers who have to stay on to perform essential services for the state can take equivalent time off for administrative leave sometime over the next seven months, reports James Call of USA Today Network-Florida.

DIRE RESULTS — “Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths here in Florida,” reports the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Cindy Krischer Goodman. “Several factors contribute to Florida’s lung cancer toll: The population is older, the screening rate is low, and people relocate to the state from countries where smoking is prevalent. Florida’s large Hispanic population may be a factor, too.”

Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now.

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

CLASS-ACTION LAWSUIT — “Haitian Americans sue Red Cross, accusing charity of mismanaging Haiti aid after quake,” reports Jacqueline Charles of the Miami Herald. “A Haitian American organization has filed suit in federal court against the American Red Cross, the International Red Cross and related entities, accusing the well-known charities of exploiting ‘the poverty and calamities’ of an impoverished Haiti to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in the name of humanitarian aid only to mismanage and misappropriate the funds to enrich themselves.”

IN MEMORIAM — “A third motorcycle deputy who was struck by an SUV as he and two other veteran officers awaited help with a disabled vehicle has died, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office said Monday afternoon,” reports Angie Dimichele of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “Deputy Ignacio ‘Dan’ Diaz, Cpl. Luis Paez and Deputy Ralph ‘Butch’ Waller were hit by a woman in the SUV. Paez and Waller were both pronounced dead at a hospital shortly after the crash.”

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

— Ryan Routh, the man who is charged with attempting to assassinate Trump, wrote a letter to POLITICO’s Ankush Khardori.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Miami Beach Mayor and legislator Dan Gelber … former CIA Director and former House Rep. Porter Goss … Mac Stipanovich.

A message from Instagram:

Instagram Teen Accounts: a protected experience for teens, guided by parents

Instagram Teen Accounts are designed to address parents’ biggest concerns, providing automatic protections for who can contact their teens and the content they can see.

The impact: Built-in limits give parents more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.

Learn more.