| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
Donald Trump’s re-election constitutes arguably the biggest political comeback story in American history. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | It seemed unthinkable on Jan. 7, 2021. Now it’s reality. DONALD TRUMP will retake the presidency after making sweeping gains in state after state, with group after group, slashing away at the margins that kept him from a second term four years ago. He declared victory in a raucous speech in West Palm Beach last night, where he hailed “the greatest political movement of all time” — a boast that suddenly did not sound like unhinged hyperbole. Trump’s re-election — called by the AP and the major TV networks moments ago — constitutes arguably the biggest political comeback story in American history. He has survived two impeachments, numerous federal and state indictments and a conviction for which he’s slated to be sentenced later this month. His own former chief of staff and some senior advisers called him a “fascist.” He endured two assassination attempts, including one in which a bullet struck his ear. And now he appears on track to win the popular vote after previously losing it twice. Read more: “Donald Trump returns to the White House,” by Natalie Allison and Myah Ward The implications are immense. Having lifted many down-ballot Republicans to victory, the present GOP will be much more pliant than the one he inherited in 2017. With a comfortable Senate majority, he’ll be able to stock his administration with proven loyalists, seek revenge on his enemies, end his own federal prosecution, potentially pardon Jan. 6 convicts, upend the global free trade regime, further rewrite the U.S. tax system, hand the reins of agencies to ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and ELON MUSK, force Ukraine to settle the war in Russia's favor — and the list goes on and on. But set the policy aside for a moment. As a political feat, Trump's victory is remarkable: Not only does a popular vote victory seem likely, he appears on track for a sweep of the swing states. He defied poll-driven predictions of a razor-thin race, racking up big marginal gains compared to JOE BIDEN in a wide range of counties and precincts — rural, urban and suburban. “Across the more than 1,300 counties where the Associated Press estimates that at least 95 percent of the vote has been counted, Trump has improved on his 2020 margin in 92 percent of them, according to a POLITICO analysis,” Jessica Piper writes. “The median county shifted a bit under two points in Trump’s favor.” Visualization: “How counties are shifting in the 2024 presidential election,” WaPo He had coattails, too, at least in the Senate: Potential new Republican senators in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are riding Trump’s margins to possible narrow wins. Democrats could still take the House, but a GOP trifecta is not out of the realm of possibility. Take that in for a minute: a full GOP takeover two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
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Harris supporters watch as polling results come in at the VP's election night event. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | What drove Trump to victory? Relying on early exit polls is always tricky business, but the short of it is this: While many Americans don’t love Trump, they don’t love their own personal situations more. The upheaval of the Covid pandemic and the inflation that plagued the Biden administration weighed heavily on VP KAMALA HARRIS, who has not conceded the race. Trump was able to trade on the strong economy of his pre-Covid administration and present himself as the fix-it man. In other words, the global anti-incumbent wave came for Democrats, and Harris couldn’t turn it back on Trump. The evidence of a remarkable political realignment is scattered across the map. Trump made a 25-point gain among Latino voters compared to 2020, according to ABC News exit poll data, winning Latino men by 10 points after losing them to Biden by more than 20. Take Starr County, Texas — 97 percent Latino — which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1896 : Trump won it by 16 points. That narrative of a “garbage”-driven backlash among Puerto Ricans? He won Osceola County, Florida, an islander haven Biden won handily. Latino gains brought him within five points in New Jersey, a Republican’s best finish since 1992, per Steve Kornacki. Trump did exactly what he said he was going to do — relentlessly focusing on cutting Democratic margins with key elements of their coalition, unabashedly targeting men of all ages and races, and otherwise swamping what many assumed would be a surge of women for Harris. In fact, early exit polls yesterday showed Harris’ margin with women voters was less than Biden’s in 2020, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Cleve Wootson and Anumita Kaur report. If this was the “ boys vs. girls election,” the boys won. The shifts were dramatic enough to swamp whatever “vibe shift” appeared to materialize in the final 10 days of the campaign, when Harris seemed to regain her footing in the media narrative as Trump reverted to his undisciplined ways, but the actual voter trends just chugged along in his favor. “Trump was Trump,” one Democratic pollster told us overnight. “He told us what he would do, and he did it.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Election Day has passed — but one thing never changes: Big Pharma wants to increase their profits at the expense of everyone else.
That’s why Big Pharma’s top priority for Congress is a self-serving agenda called “delinking,” which would hand big drug companies a massive $32 billion windfall in higher profits, all while protecting their otherwise limitless pricing power and increasing health care costs for employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | WHITHER THE HILL — The biggest outstanding question at this moment is how much Trump’s ambitions will be constrained by Congress. The Senate will be in Republican hands, that we know. What we don’t know is whether centrists SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) and LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) will assume their familiar roles as pivot points around which all personnel and policymaking will flow — or whether he’ll have more room to maneuver with a larger GOP majority. Read on for more on all the key races, but at the moment, the latter is looking entirely possible: Republicans are in the lead, barely, in Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Related read: “GOP wins back control of the Senate,” by Ursula Perano and Ally Mutnick
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Donald Trump praised House Speaker Mike Johnson at his election night event in Florida. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | The House, meanwhile, is up in the air — and will probably remain so for days yet. But we will tell you: Our GOP sources are sounding more bullish than our Democratic sources at this point. Democrats notched some redistricting-assisted wins in Alabama, Louisiana and New York, but the GOP held serve by flipping the Michigan seat Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN vacated for a Senate run, while Democratic Reps. MATT CARTWRIGHT and SUSAN WILD hang by a thread in Pennsylvania. The fate of the majority will come down to a handful of seats out west — including several in slow-counting California. "We are confident we will hold the House majority when this is all said and done, and we still see a pathway to picking up seats,” a senior GOP strategist told us in the wee hours this morning. “Still more to come in, but what we are seeing is encouraging." Related read: “House control still in limbo as Trump wins presidency,” by Madison Fernandez, Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney What does all this mean for the leadership jockeying to come? If Senate Republicans end up with a 55- or 56-seat majority — their largest in nearly a century, per Semafor’s Burgess Everett — don’t be surprised if a Sen. STEVE DAINES draft movement suddenly develops ahead of next week’s leader race. The NRSC chairman hasn’t made any moves to jump into the race — he’s backing Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) — but Trump could change the dynamics very quickly if he wanted to. In the House, even a slim majority could secure Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’ s hold on the gavel. Trump, in a jubilant mood during his watch party last night, praised Johnson — signaling he will lock arms behind the Louisiana Republican. Then again, if Democrats take the House, HAKEEM JEFFRIES — the all-but-certain speaker — would instantly become the second most important man in Washington, the funnel through which all essential legislating would pass.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Stop Big Pharma from undermining competition and increasing costs for employers, patients and taxpayers. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Well, everything. But here’s one small outcome hanging in the balance with the House majority: the chairmanship of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus. Asked if he would run for a full two-year term, incumbent Chair ANDY HARRIS (R-Md.) told our colleague Jordain Carney yesterday he was waiting to see the outcome of the election, adding “the leadership of the caucus is very different whether you’re in the majority or minority.” Asked which would be which, he laughed. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the afternoon.
| | | |  | RACE FOR THE SENATE We still don’t know the size of the GOP majority in the upper chamber. But there was little good news for Democrats last night. WHAT WE’RE WAITING ON … — ARIZONA: With just over half of the vote in, Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO is holding on to a four-point lead over Republican KARI LAKE in the race to succeed Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA, with just over half of the votes counted. — MICHIGAN: Republican former Rep. MIKE ROGERS and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are within two-tenths of one percentage point of each other, with 4 percent of the vote yet to be counted. Should Rogers win, it will flip the seat held by outgoing Dem Sen. DEBBIE STABENOW , and make him the first Republican in 30 years to win a U.S. Senate race in Michigan. — MONTANA: Democratic incumbent JON TESTER trails Republican TIM SHEEHY by nine points with roughly 75 percent reporting. — NEVADA: Democratic incumbent JACKY ROSEN and Republican SAM BROWN are locked within one-tenth of one percentage point of each other, with roughly 16 percent of the vote yet to be tallied. — PENNSYLVANIA: Democratic incumbent BOB CASEY trails Republican DAVE McCORMICK by less than one point with roughly 96 percent of the vote in. — WISCONSIN: With 97 percent of the vote in, Democratic Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN leads Republican challenger ERIC HOVDE by roughly half a percentage point. Baldwin’s team is projecting optimism: “The campaign is confident with the remaining votes left to count in Democratic strongholds that we will take the lead and we will win,” a source with the campaign told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Daniel Bice. But that optimism is running head-on into an increasingly bleak mathematical reality. THE BIGGEST RACES WE DO KNOW … — OHIO: Republican BERNIE MORENO flipped the seat, ousting Democrat SHERROD BROWN. The analysis: After three terms, Brown could no longer outrun the political gravity of his state. Moreno hugged Trump tightly, earning his endorsement as a reddening electorate overcame Brown’s incumbency advantage and longtime populist image, Cleveland.com’s Jeremy Pelzer and Zach Mentz write. Moreno also benefited from a wave of cryptocurrency money seeking to oust the Senate Banking chair. His ads hammered Brown as too liberal, and he emphasized border security and smaller government, the Columbus Dispatch’s Haley BeMiller and Erin Glynn report. — NEBRASKA: GOP Sen. DEB FISCHER turned back the independent challenge from DAN OSBORN. The analysis: Osborn was the latest example of an independent Senate challenger making waves but ultimately unable to win over a very red state. After he gave Fischer a scare in the polls, Republicans swooped in with a deluge of ads that called him a secret Democrat — and his union bona fides weren’t enough to lift him, NYT’s Maya Miller and Jonathan Weisman write. — TEXAS: GOP Sen. TED CRUZ scored another term, fending off Rep. COLIN ALLRED. The analysis: “The 2018 Senate race was a warning shot for Cruz. [Then-Rep.] BETO O’ROURKE came within striking distance of flipping the seat,” write Texas Tribune’s Matthew Choi and Jasper Scherer. “This cycle, Cruz rallied donors early with warnings that they should take nothing for granted. … Cruz doubled his fundraising from the 2018 cycle. He got an early start, raising over $30 million by the time Allred launched his Senate bid in May 2023. He also launched a reputational rebrand, trying to soften his incendiary image with an early media blitz highlighting his work with Democrats.” — FLORIDA: GOP Sen. RICK SCOTT held his seat, per Kimberly Leonard, setting him up for a Senate GOP leadership bid. The analysis: In his first three statewide races — two gubernatorial campaigns and one Senate bid — Scott “never won by more than 1.2 percent of the vote,” notes Gray Rohrer of the USA Today network. This year, he’s on pace to win by about 13 percentage points, as Florida has shifted decisively in favor of Republicans. Still, Scott spent much of the closing campaign centering on a broadly bipartisan issue: “helping with hurricane recovery efforts following the wreckage to Florida from Hurricanes Helene and Milton,” Kimberly Leonard writes. — WEST VIRGINIA: In the night’s least surprising flip, Gov. JIM JUSTICE turned outgoing Sen. JOE MANCHIN’s seat red. — HISTORY MAKERS IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE: There will be two Black women serving together in the Senate for the first time: Maryland’s ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and Delaware’s LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER. “Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester followed what is now a familiar playbook that Kamala Harris established in her own presidential run: Don’t talk too much about history-making,” Brakkton Booker and Kierra Frazier report . “Alsobrooks vowed that together, she and Blunt Rochester ‘would be quite bold’ as senators — ‘there’s no reason for us to hold back.’” RACE FOR THE HOUSE Control of the House looks very tight so far, with a few dozen key races remaining uncalled, especially out West. The path to 218 could yet run through the districts of Reps. JARED GOLDEN (D-Maine), MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS (R-Iowa), MARY PELTOLA (D-Alaska), DAVID SCHWEIKERT (R-Ariz.), JUAN CISCOMANI (R-Ariz.), YADIRA CARAVEO (D-Colo.), LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER (R-Ore.), MARIE GLUESENKAMP PEREZ (D-Wash.) and as many as 10 districts in California. But plenty of incumbents from both parties, and a handful of challengers, have already won competitive races …
- Republican victories: Rep. ZACH NUNN (Iowa), Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (Fla.), Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (Fla.), Rep. MONICA DE LA CRUZ (Texas), Rep. TOM KEAN JR. (N.J.), Rep. NICK LaLOTA (N.Y.), Rep. BRYAN STEIL (Wis.), Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (Pa.)
- Democratic victories: JOHN MANNION and JOSH RILEY flipping redistricted New York seats, SHOMARI FIGURES flipping a redistricted Alabama seat, KRISTEN McDONALD RIVET won the race to succeed Rep. DAN KILDEE, Rep. PAT RYAN (N.Y.), Rep. GREG LANDSMAN (Ohio), Rep. SHARICE DAVIDS (Kan.), Rep. CHRIS PAPPAS (N.H.), Rep. ANGIE CRAIG (Minn.), Rep. CHRIS DELUZIO (Pa.), Rep. TOM SUOZZI (N.Y.), Rep. FRANK MRVAN (Ind.), Rep. GABE VASQUEZ (N.M.), Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (Texas), JAHANA HAYES (Conn.)
Other results of note:
- In Delaware: State Sen. SARAH McBRIDE will make history as the first transgender person elected to Congress.
- In New York: LAURA GILLEN leads Republican Rep. ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO; GOP Rep. MIKE LAWLER is up big over MONDAIRE JONES with 94% in.
- In Pennsylvania: Republican Rep. SCOTT PERRY leads JANELLE STELSON;
- In Virginia: With 99% of the vote in, Democrat EUGENE VINDMAN leads DERRICK ANDERSON in Democratic Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER’s old seat.
RACE FOR THE STATES NEW HAMPSHIRE: Republican former Sen. KELLY AYOTTE is back, winning the nation’s only toss-up gubernatorial race. It's a major blow to both Democrats — who had viewed New Hampshire as their best chance to flip a governor's seat — and to the party's battle-tested abortion-rights playbook. NORTH CAROLINA: Democrat JOSH STEIN easily defeated scandal-tarred Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON. And Democratic Rep. JEFF JACKSON won election as AG — an office to which the state, amazingly, has not elected a Republican since the 1800s. INDIANA: Despite some marginal Democratic chatter about making the governor’s race interesting, it was called quickly for GOP Sen. MIKE BRAUN. WASHINGTON: BOB FERGUSON kept Olympia in Democratic hands. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT: Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada and New York passed ballot measures to protect abortion rights in the state constitutions. A similar measure is ahead in Montana. The Missouri measure was especially notable, since it could lead to undoing the state’s strict abortion ban. FLORIDA: Ballot measures to restore abortion rights and legalize recreational marijuana both fell short of the 60 percent threshold, despite winning support from majorities of voters. SOUTH DAKOTA: Voters rejected a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, while a vote to legalize recreational marijuana is trailing but too close to call. NEBRASKA: Nebraskans rejected a ballot measure that would expand the state’s current abortion law, granting the right to have an abortion until viability or later. Instead, voters opted for a competing measure that enshrines the state’s current 12 week ban into the state’s constitution. | | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Savings secured by PBMs are the only real check on Big Pharma’s pricing power. | | | | | THE MONEY | | TRADING SPACES — “Expected Trump Victory Reverberates Through Markets,” by WSJ’s Gunjan Banerji and Sam Goldfarb: “Shares of Trump Media & Technology, known as DJT, soared. The U.S. dollar, bitcoin and shares of Tesla — bets that are also linked to Trump’s prospects — rose, too. … The gap between yields on ordinary Treasurys and those on inflation-protected Treasurys also widened substantially, a sign that investors think that the policies of a second Trump term could put upward pressure on inflation.” HEY BIG SPENDER — A super PAC bankrolled by CHARLES and DAVID KOCH spent a whopping $160 million to boost Republicans this election cycle, the Washington Examiner’s Gabe Kaminsky reports. Americans for Prosperity Action’s spending “more than tripled since 2020” and targeted Senate races in Pennsylvania and Ohio as well as Nevada, Montana, Wisconsin and Michigan.
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Elon Musk is pictured at a town hall in support of former President Donald Trump in Folsom, Pennsylvania, last week. He is seeking big cuts to federal regulations. | Matt Rourke/AP | MUSK READ — Workers for ELON MUSK’s America PAC, which was tapped to work the ground game for Trump in battleground states, told Wired’s Makena Kelly and Jake Lahut that they “had to work through illness and have struggled to get paid on time or in the full amount promised under onerous quotas.” Musk, meanwhile, said his super PAC isn’t going anywhere and will “weigh in heavily” in 2026 elections
| | THE THREATS | | THE KREMLIN’S LONG REACH — Non-credible bomb threats appearing to originate from Russia cropped up at polling locations in Georgia, Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio, leading to evacuations and pauses in voting, per the NYT. SCARY STUFF — Yesterday, Capitol Police arrested a man who showed up with a flare gun and torch lighter, trying to enter the building to deliver documents to Congress, per WaPo. Authorities said he smelled like gasoline.
| | | NON-ELECTION READS | | | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU fired pro-cease-fire Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT while Americans were voting, potentially throwing another wrench into the efforts to end the war in Gaza, per the NYT . The move triggered major Israeli protests as Netanyahu booted a moderate potential rival from the government. Gallant had also been a principal point of contact for U.S. officials. IMMIGRATION FILES — “Migrant caravan of 3,000 heads north in Mexico as US votes,” by Reuters’ Daniel Becerril and Lizbeth Diaz WAR IN UKRAINE — “North Korea Enters Ukraine Fight for First Time, Officials Say,” by NYT’s Michael Schwirtz and Julian Barnes
| | | | | | | REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here. | | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Rudy Giuliani is ferreting his possessions away from being seized. Phil Scott voted for Kamala Harris. Henry Kissinger won’t get the monument he wanted. Naomi Biden is expecting her first child. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at WaPo’s election night watch party, sponsored by Stand with Crypto: Will Lewis, Matt Murray, Kathy Baird, Karl Wells, Suzi Watford, Vineet Khosla, Steve Gibson, Jay Kennedy, Gregg Fernandes, Eleanor Breen, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, German Ambassador Andreas Michaelis, Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Bob Woodward and Elsa Walsh, Don Graham and Amanda Bennett, Sally Quinn, Steve and Jean Case, Jim Bankoff, Dan Balz, Jane Harman, Olivia Petersen, Peter Elkins-Williams and Liza Pluto. — Abby Jones, Alexandra Preate and Catharine O’Neill hosted an election night pre-watch party in Palm Beach sponsored by Meriwether Farms last night. SPOTTED: Nigel Farage, Texas AG Ken Paxton, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Monica Crowley, Sid Miller, Miranda Devine, Sean Bannon, Raheem Kassam, Troup Hemenway and Michael Caputo. — Franco Nuschese hosted a small private gathering of friends in the back room of Cafe Milano last night. SPOTTED: Tom Quinn, Vin Roberti, Lyndon Boozer, Gerry Harrington, Erik Huey and Al Mottur. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) … POLITICO’s Louis Nelson and Kristin Crofts … ABC’s Trish Turner … American Red Cross’ Eric Mondero … Katie Rosborough … JoJo Sears … Rachel Weiss of CMS … LSG’s Blair Gremillion … Gresham Striegel … ACOG’s Rachel Kingery … Whitney Mitchell Brennan of Honeywell … Rick Nussio … Rob Jesmer of FP1 Strategies and Plus Communications … Austin Keyser of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers … Suzanne Granville … former Social Security Commissioner Andrew Saul … Ashley Lewis … Diana Banister … former Education Secretary Arne Duncan … former Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) … Dan Senor … Alexis Gurganious of Cox Enterprises … Crystal Sung of Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) office … New Heights Communications’ Taj Magruder … Sidney Blumenthal Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Owen Beal’s workplace. He works for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio). | | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: PBMs are working every day on behalf of employers, helping them provide high-quality, cost-effective prescription drug coverage to employees and their families. But Big Pharma is working to undermine PBM savings by removing the only real check on their otherwise limitless pricing power, and boost drug company profits at the expense of patients and employers.
In fact, Big Pharma-backed legislation targeting PBMs would boost drug company profits and undermine the ability of America’s employers to offer quality, affordable health care coverage — threatening the $1,040 average savings per person PBMs deliver for health plan sponsors.
A world without PBMs is a world without competition in the drug marketplace — which would increase health care costs for hardworking employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stand up for savings and competition. Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
