| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE 435TH SEAT — Newly counted ballots last night put Democrat ADAM GRAY 182 votes ahead of GOP Rep. JOHN DUARTE in California’s 13th Congressional District, Gray’s first lead. It’s now the closest of three uncalled House races, with Democrat DEREK TRAN leading by 613 votes in California’s 45th and GOP Rep. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS up by 800 in Iowa’s 2nd. The math … If the current leads hold, the final 2024 House tally would be 220-215 in favor of Republicans — a net gain of two seats for Democrats. But the GOP will immediately start the 119th Congress down a seat due to MATT GAETZ’s resignation, with Reps. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) and MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) expected to step down later in January. With two Florida special elections now scheduled for April 1, House Republicans are facing roughly two months with a 217-215 split — a one-seat majority.
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President Joe Biden speaks in the Rose Garden at the White House, Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) | AP | BIDEN’S MIDDLE EAST CONSOLATION PRIZE — It's not the cease-fire they wanted, but it's the cease-fire they get. Just hours ago, hostilities ceased between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, pursuant to a deal hammered out in recent weeks with the help of U.S. and French diplomats meant to bring an end to more than a year of cross-border skirmishing. It’s not exactly a Thanksgiving miracle for President JOE BIDEN and Secretary of State ANTHONY BLINKEN, but it’s hard to deny it feels that way after months and months of stop-and-go diplomatic efforts in the Middle East It’s also hard to deny it feels like a consolation prize, with a peace deal on the larger conflict between Israel and Hamas — one that ends the war in Gaza — still elusive as Biden counts down his final weeks in office. That said, there is still hope inside the Biden administration that the bigger deal is still possible before DONALD TRUMP takes the oath of office in January. So we thought we would take you inside their (perhaps wishful) thinking for how Biden could finally notch one final feather in his foreign policy cap before riding off into the sunset. The belief inside Biden world for months has been that one cease-fire would pave the way for another, rooted in Hezbollah and Hamas’ shared relationship with Iran, their mutual proxy and patron. Cutting a deal with one would isolate the other, the theory goes, by showing that a regional war involving Iran was not a foregone conclusion — forcing them to get back to the bargaining table and get serious about a deal. “It's a clear signal to Hamas that neither Hezbollah nor Iran are going to continue their aid,” one senior administration official told Playbook last night about the Lebanon deal. “And that presents an opportunity where, you know, to push Hamas to return to the table and engage in serious negotiations.” In his speech touting the deal, Biden promised a renewed push from the negotiators in the region and out of it over the next couple of months. “Peace is possible,” he repeated. But they’ve been at it for nearly 14 months now, and, frankly, the challenges have only increased.
- There’s no indication that Hamas, after the killings of leaders YAHYA SINWAR and ISMAIL HANIYEH, will see the light. ”They’re a terrorist organization,” the senior administration official acknowledged. “They don't have the best interests of the Palestinian people at heart. They don't always act in their own strategic interest.”
- There’s also no clear sign that Israel PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU is rushing to cut a deal, especially with the more consistently supportive Trump on his way into power. “The only two who don't seem to know that Netanyahu is the problem in getting a cease-fire in Gaza are Biden and Blinken,” one expert on the region put it to us last night. “Israeli officials have been very clear that Netanyahu is the one blocking a ceasefire in Gaza.”
That said: Netanyahu remains under immense pressure from Israelis to get the remaining hostages home, and there appears to be an effort underway to convince him that there is no sense in waiting — that, in fact, the time to do a deal is now. Part of the plan is to convince both Israel and Hamas that the deal on the table is as good as it might get for them. The case they are hearing is that Trump’s foreign policy predilections are unpredictable, to say the least, and that he might prioritize a speedy deal over an equitable one. “No one has any idea what will happen after Jan. 20, so I think the time is right,” said a former senior administration official who is still keeping close tabs on the talks. “The combination of Biden leaving, Trump coming and the Lebanon peace agreement — this is a golden opportunity and we should not let it slip by,” Also not to be discounted: Biden and Netanyahu also both have their eyes on what they see as a grand prize: the long-brewing normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, now on hold due to the Oct. 7 attack and the war in Gaza. It seems unlikely that Netanyahu would allow his current Oval Office sparring partner to claim that prize rather than saving it for Trump. Related read: “Biden Hopes to Parlay Lebanon Cease-Fire Into a Broader Regional Peace,” by NYT’s Peter Baker Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
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Learn more. | | | NIGHT MOVES — In another flurry of announcements last night, Trump filled out more top roles from the Cabinet level on down for his administration. USTR: Trump announced JAMIESON GREER as his selection for U.S. trade representative, as Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook, Saleha Mohsin, Annmarie Hordern and Jenny Leonard scooped, filling out one of the final Cabinet-level roles in his administration — and one that’s all the more important in the wake of his latest tariff threats. The little-known Greer is a protege of Trump’s previous USTR, protectionism champion ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, having worked as his chief of staff in the first term, and “one of the biggest remaining mysteries is what, if any, official role Lighthizer will have in the administration.” NEC: KEVIN HASSETT will be director of the National Economic Council, as Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook, Saleha Mohsin and Amanda Gordon had scooped. A prominent conservative economist who led the Council of Economic Advisers in Trump’s first term, Hassett will be a key point person for Republicans’ big tax bill next year. And though he has establishment credentials, he also supports Trump’s tariffs. At the CEA, Bloomberg notes, Hassett sometimes painted a rosier picture of Trump’s economic data than other agencies suggested. DPC: VINCE HALEY has been tapped as head of the Domestic Policy Council, after working as speechwriter and director of policy on Trump’s campaign. He was a longtime NEWT GINGRICH hand before joining Trump world, and worked under STEPHEN MILLER in Trump’s first term. Our colleagues reported before the election that Haley was working on trade and economic policy plans. NIH: In October 2020, then-NIH Director FRANCIS COLLINS said the Great Barrington Declaration’s call for ending Covid lockdowns was “fringe.” Now one of its authors, JAY BHATTACHARYA, has been selected as the next NIH director. The doctor and economist will bring a critic’s eye to the agency, having called for major changes and blasted leaders like ANTHONY FAUCI for their handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “We will reform American scientific institutions so that they are worthy of trust again,” he posted on X. Background from WaPo’s Dan Diamond Deputy HHS secretary: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s potential lieutenant will be JIM O’NEILL, a Bush HHS alum and close associate of PETER THIEL, per David Lim. The Silicon Valley-backed O’Neill would lead day-to-day agency operations. He’s previously called for patients to get access to drugs after being cleared for safety, not necessarily effectiveness. Navy: Businessman JOHN PHELAN is Trump’s choice for secretary of the Navy. The investment firm leader and Trump megadonor doesn’t have much experience with the Navy, but Trump selected him after interviewing candidates Monday, Jack Detsch reports. TALK OF THE O.C. — “Katie Porter alleges ‘persistent abuse,’ files restraining order against ex-boyfriend,” by Melanie Mason and Christopher Cadelago: “In a petition for a domestic violence restraining order, filed Tuesday with the Orange County Superior Court, [Democratic Rep. KATIE] PORTER alleged JULIAN WILLIS, her romantic partner of several years, sent a litany of abusive messages with the intent to cause ‘significant harm’ to her public image. … Willis, 55, told POLITICO in a telephone interview Tuesday that Porter sought the restraining order to preempt him from suing her and seeking protection for himself and her children — and to prevent him from going to the media.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Add another headache to the end-of-the-year pileup: The IRS is facing an unanticipated $20 trillion cut to their planned enforcement plus-up due to a legislative snafu that went unnoticed by the agency and its allies in Congress. WSJ’s Richard Rubin reported yesterday that Democrats want the issue addressed in the lame duck, but that may be a tall order with Republicans coming in next year determined to roll back as much of the Biden IRS enforcement infusion as possible. “Without the enforcement money, the IRS would likely do 2,000 fewer audits of large corporations over the next five years and 6,000 fewer audits of high-income individuals,” Rubin reports, citing Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO. At the White House Biden has nothing on his public schedule. VP KAMALA HARRIS will have internal meetings and briefings.
| | | | REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRANSITION LENSES
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Incoming White House chief of staff Susie Wiles announced that the Trump team has finally signed a memorandum of understanding with the White House. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | THE TRANSFER OF POWER — Future chief of staff SUSIE WILES announced that the Trump team has finally signed a memorandum of understanding with the White House, removing the obstacle to formal transition coordination, Alice Miranda Ollstein reports. The previous “unprecedented delay” for the congressionally mandated agreement had raised concerns about the incoming administration’s preparedness and transparency about conflicts of interest. Now, “landing teams” can go into federal agencies and gain access to non-public information for planning. But, but, but: Team Trump is still doing some things their own way. Wiles said they won’t sign a General Services Administration agreement, using private instead of federal resources for office space, cybersecurity support and funding. She said the transition will disclose donors on its own. Some experts raised concerns about vulnerability to hacking under the new arrangement. And a third agreement is still TBD: whether Trump’s transition will sign with the Justice Department for FBI background checks and security clearances. Failing that, classified information will be off limits to many Trump figures, NYT’s Michael Shear notes. WHAT LANGLEY IS WATCHING — CLIFF SIMS and KASH PATEL are both in the running for CIA deputy director, John Sakellariadis reports. The powerful post doesn’t go through Senate confirmation — a potential boon for a lightning rod like Patel — but knives are out all over the selection process. Some people suspect Patel of planting negative stories about Sims. And other potential contenders are mad at both men for trying to land the job while also helping the transition coordinate interviews for it, per John. The Trump team denied that this story is true. AMERICA AND THE WORLD OPIOID FILES — Trump’s team is preparing an aggressive, whole-of-government approach to fighting fentanyl, Reuters’ Michael Martina and Antoni Slodkowski report. Pushing well past how the Biden administration has handled China and Mexico — and beyond the already announced tariffs — the Trump administration may sanction banks, seek indictments of money-laundering institutions, conduct cyberattacks against cartels and more. China warns that it won’t respond kindly to hostility. Related read: “Did the Opioid Epidemic Fuel Donald Trump’s Return to the White House?” by The New Yorker’s Benjamin Wallace-Wells: “New research suggests that the Democrats’ struggles in communities battling fentanyl addiction had little to do with economic theory or messaging — it was, more simply, a failure of political attention.” LITTLE ROCKET MAN — Trump’s advisers are considering making a new diplomatic effort for direct talks with North Korean dictator KIM JONG UN, Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt scooped. POLICY CORNER
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Donald Trump’s tariff announcement kept reverberating around the world yesterday. | Allison Robbert/Pool via AP Photo, File | TRADE WARS — Trump’s tariff announcement kept reverberating around the world yesterday, a clear signal to other countries not to see the likes of SCOTT BESSENT or HOWARD LUTNICK as bulwarks against trade hardball, Adam Cancryn, Sam Sutton, Doug Palmer and Ari Hawkins write. Trump is serious about using tariffs to leverage concessions, and the world is steeling itself for four more years of unpredictability. But if he imposes the tariffs, the ramifications may be significant: Two-thirds of Americans expect higher prices, the Guardian’s Lauren Aratani reports from a new Harris poll, and Best Buy already said it may have to raise prices, per CBS. The auto industry could be hit hard, NYT’s Jack Ewing and Neal Boudette report. And U.S.-Canadian-Mexican relations are already changing. “The major question is whether the threats are a negotiating ploy to wring concessions on trade and other policy priorities from U.S. trading partners,” WSJ’s Jason Douglas, Anthony Harrup and José de Córdoba write, “or the start of a sustained campaign to reshape global trade and the American economy.” More top reads:
- Immigration files: Trump aides are plotting out a major clash with local leaders who refuse to work with ICE on deportations, WaPo’s Jacob Bogage and Jeff Stein report. His team is discussing trying to stop federal funding to such cities, even as the likes of Chicago Mayor BRANDON JOHNSON say they aren’t cowed and won’t take part. Elsewhere, local law enforcement may step up involvement in the 287(g) program to help deport people, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez and Olympia Sonnier report from Bel Air, Maryland.
- Fed up: The latest Fed minutes show the central bank moving cautiously on further interest rate cuts, as policymakers keep an eye on inflation. More from Bloomberg
- More than meets the eye: Republicans have touted an Institute for Defense Analyses report that found the military does not disproportionately have a problem with violent extremists in its ranks. But a new investigation from AP’s Michelle Smith and Jason Dearen finds that “relied on old data, misleading analyses and ignored evidence that pointed to the opposite conclusion.”
BEYOND THE BELTWAY POWER STRUGGLE IN RALEIGH — North Carolina Gov. ROY COOPER vetoed a GOP bill that attempted to seize power away from the governor and AG before the Republicans lose their legislative supermajority next year, The News & Observer’s Korie Dean reports. The major changes were tucked inside a hurricane relief bill. Republicans can still override Cooper’s veto, but they have no wiggle room, and the outcome looks uncertain. MADE IN MANHATTAN — “U.S. Investigating Political Action Committee Tied to Mayor Adams,” by NYT’s William Rashbaum, Dana Rubinstein and Nicholas Fandos: “Prosecutors and the F.B.I. are examining an organization founded by the Rev. ALFRED COCKFIELD II.” SCHOOL TIES — Voters in Colorado, Kentucky and Nebraska this month said no to school vouchers. But Republicans across the country are charging ahead nonetheless with an emphasis on school choice policymaking, Juan Perez Jr. outlines this morning. Putting taxpayer money into private schools is at the top of the list for GOP lawmakers in Texas, Tennessee and North Carolina in “a clash between legislative will, labor groups, and voter discontent over a policy trend that’s already swept through much of the country.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | VALLEY TALK ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — In the Justice Department’s court fight to break up Google, Judge AMIT MEHTA said yesterday that he won’t postpone the April trial date just to give the incoming Trump administration more time to make changes, per Reuters’ Jody Godoy. CONGRESS
|  RFK Jr. will have to assuage worries on multiple fronts to get confirmed by the Senate. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | THE COMING CONFIRMATION FIGHT — Beyond Gaetz, multiple other Trump nominees are not a sure bet yet to get through the Senate — and RFK Jr. will have to assuage worries on multiple fronts. Trump aides are working to craft a plan to reassure socially conservative Republicans about the HHS secretary-designate’s support for abortion rights, CNN’s Alayna Treene, Aaron Pellish, Kate Sullivan and Kristen Holmes report. The basic pitch: Don’t worry, because other top HHS roles will be filled by abortion opponents, and Kennedy’s focused on other issues. Some senators say they want him to commit to reinstating the abortion restrictions from Trump’s first term. But like Gaetz, Kennedy could also face a high-profile airing of sexual misconduct allegations. ELIZA COONEY goes on the record with WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte and Kristina Peterson to say she’d testify in Congress about her accusation that Kennedy assaulted her in the 1990s. Kennedy didn’t respond for comment. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) tells the Journal that the Senate will scrutinize any such allegations. More top reads:
- Impoundment watch: “How Trump Plans to Seize the Power of the Purse From Congress,” by ProPublica’s Molly Redden: “If Trump were to assert a power to kill congressionally approved programs, it would almost certainly tee up a fight in the federal courts and Congress and, experts say, could fundamentally alter Congress’ bedrock power.”
- Pulling rank: Patriotic Millionaires is calling for House Dems to replace Rep. RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.) as House Ways and Means ranking member, following POLITICO reporting about his son’s business practices, Benjamin Guggenheim reports.
JUDICIARY SQUARE DAVID WEISS STRIKES AGAIN — “Ex-FBI informant accused of lying about the Bidens is indicted on federal tax charges,” by AP’s Alanna Durkin Richer: “The tax indictment against ALEXANDER SMIRNOV was unsealed this week in California federal court, months after his arrest on charges that he fabricated a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme involving Joe Biden, his son HUNTER and a Ukrainian energy company.” Smirnov’s lawyers say they’ll fight the charges. SCOTUS WATCH — Next week, the Supreme Court will take up a major transgender rights case as it considers whether Tennessee can bar gender transition-related medical care for minors, N.Y. Mag’s Irin Carmon previews. If the justices rule broadly, there could be significant ramifications either way for discrimination law; some trans advocates quietly tell her they’re a bit concerned about the wisdom of taking this case all the way. Increasingly on the court, Justices SAMUEL ALITO and ELENA KAGAN represent dueling perspectives, with intense “rhetorical sparring” already at oral arguments this term, CNN’s Joan Biskupic writes. TRUMP CARDS THE TRUMP TRIALS — Trump’s legal team has asked New York AG LETITIA JAMES to end the civil business fraud case against the president-elect and the Trump Organization, Fox News’ Brooke Singman scooped. POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — “Feds arrest Arizona man who allegedly threatened to kill Trump, visited campaign rally in August,” by ABC’s Mike Levine ALL POLITICS FEELING SPECIAL — RANDY FINE quickly racked up the backing of Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) and House GOP leaders, following Trump’s lead, in the special-election GOP primary to replace Waltz. More from Florida Politics 2025 WATCH — “What New Jersey and Virginia’s governor’s races could mean for Democrats,” by ABC’s Tal Axelrod
| | | | Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Whitney Tilson is running for mayor of NYC. Al Sharpton didn’t disclose Kamala Harris’ campaign donation to his nonprofit. Hasan Piker says he’s not the left’s answer to Joe Rogan. LaToya Cantrell keeps finding new ways to avoid the press. JB Pritzker paid $19 million for Ken Griffin’s old place. Chris Licht knows he shouldn’t have talked to Tim Alberta. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The WSJ recently laid off Kimberly Johnson, who worked for the paper for 10 years, most recently as election editor, Daniel Lippman reports. In her time at the Journal, she was head of WSJ Pro and deputy chief news editor. WSJ editor Emma Tucker last year sent a memo to staff saying Johnson had a “record of building and leading teams across the newsroom” and said she had “sharp news judgement and digital prowess.” She is an AP and Denver Post alum, and was a freelancer in West Africa. MEDIA MOVES — Sohrab Ahmari is joining UnHerd as U.S. editor. He previously was a founder and editor of Compact magazine. … ProPublica’s D.C. bureau is adding Hannah Allam, Christopher Bing and Avi Asher-Schapiro as reporters. Allam is at WaPo, where she’s been part of two Pulitzer-winning teams. Bing is at Reuters, and Asher-Schapiro is at the Thomson Reuters Foundation. ENGAGED — J. Baylor Myers, VP at BitGo and a Trump Treasury alum, proposed to Dakota Char-Lee, paralegal at the law offices of Michael Mazzocone, in Rome on Friday. They met two years ago in San Francisco. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) … Steve Bannon … U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy … Alex Wagner … Rich Verma and Sean Bartlett of State … Mary Vought … Sam Love … POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn and Solomon Yeon … Jason Gold … Brian McCormack … Nick Massella of PBS NewsHour … Jasmin Alemán … Ryan Morgan of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Nick Wittenberg of Armedia … Axios’ Victoria Knight … Michael Starr Hopkins … Shai Korman … John Aravosis … Susan Falconer of Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Tenn.) office … American Airlines’ Gary Tomasulo … former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) … former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty … former Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.) … Joe Solmonese … NBC’s Libby Leist … Dina Cappiello of RMI … Jacob Reses … DNC’s Eve Levenson … Kathryn Ciano Mauler ... Daniel Samet … Rob Towner (4-0) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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So parents can have more peace of mind when it comes to protecting their teens.
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