‘Team Canada’ unity test

Nov 27, 2024

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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Sue Allan and Graham Lanktree

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In today's edition:

→ Source by source, from Ottawa to Trumpland.

→ And the next CEO of the PPF is …

→ Plus, the inside scoop on CPTPP talks.

DRIVING THE DAY

TRUMPWORLD ROLODEX — Ask and ye shall receive.

In Tuesday's Playbook, Harper-era staffer REGAN WATTS offered harsh words about Canada's readiness for a second unforgiving era of DONALD TRUMP dealmaking.

— Whose ear does Ottawa have? As Trump's team coalesces, Watts wonders if the Canadian side is in the loop with a cast of characters, including JARED KUSHNER, the president-elect's influential son-in-law. How about KELLYANNE CONWAY, Trump's former campaign manager and senior counselor?

In the case of those two, at least, a source familiar with the government's planning for Trump 2.0 confirmed recent contact.

KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada's top envoy in Washington, has remained in contact with Conway. PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU's chief of staff, KATIE TELFORD, developed a working relationship with Kushner — and they're still in touch.

The source alluded to emerging links with a variety of Trumpworld officials, but declined to name names.

— Other lines in the water: The source highlighted Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY's relationship with Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND's longstanding ties to former USTR ROBERT LIGHTHIZER — a Trump Cabinet contender who hasn't yet scored a job in the administration.

— Leader-to-leader: Freeland told reporters Tuesday afternoon that while she and her Cabinet colleagues have been in touch with business and elected leaders in the U.S., “I think the important conversation is the conversation that the prime minister had with the president-elect.”

— In related news: ALEX PANETTA of CBC News writes: One thing is clear: Security is increasingly the path to dealing with the U.S.

And from the Star’s ALEX BALLINGALL, a reality check: Is Trump right about drugs and migrants coming across the Canada-U.S. border?

UNITY WATCH — Can Canadian leaders stay on the same page? That question hangs over a virtual first ministers' meeting scheduled for 5 p.m., where JUSTIN TRUDEAU and the premiers will talk over DONALD TRUMP's tariff threat.

Trump has threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports unless both countries respond to "Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before" on the border.

— Team Canada cracks: Alberta's DANIELLE SMITH acknowledged Trump's "valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border."

Saskatchewan's SCOTT MOE accepted the premise of Trump's complaint, saying Canadians "can all benefit from additional border security stopping the flow of illegal drugs and migrants across our borders."

— Perils of disunity: RORY JOHNSTON, an oil market analyst who founded Commodity Context, cautioned that Trump could exploit regional divisions.

Johnston recently co-wrote a paper on the prospect of oil tariffs with JOE CALNAN, an energy security analyst at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

"The only real advantage we have here is presenting a unified front," Johnston told Playbook. "If you're negotiating with a party that has fractured interests, it's very easy to start peeling them apart and playing them off each other."

Across-the-board tariffs could actually unite Canadians, Calnan said: "If everybody's feeling the same pain, then we can all be on the same page."

Trouble could follow, he said, if the U.S. administration offers exemptions that apply unevenly.

— What's the solution? It's complicated.

"We do need to make sure that we get at least some exemptions from these tariffs, for the interest of the Canadian economy," said Calnan. "But it shouldn't come at the cost of reducing our cohesion."

— Will he or won't he? It's the undercurrent of every conversation about Trump's threat.

"Everyone is getting freaked out, but I think the base-case assumption is still that he walks this back," said Johnston.

Trump 1.0 often followed a pattern: "They create this big risk, they expose vulnerability, and they start inching and twisting on that pressure point until they get what they want."

— One thing's certain: Energy analysts and trade lawyers' workloads spike with every major announcement.

WILLIAM PELLERIN, a partner in McMillan LLP's international trade group, was up late Monday. "Everyone wants to game it out," he says.

And not just the high-level impact. "Also down in the weeds," says Pellerin. "What does this do to my contract with my customer in the United States? What does it do with my supplier from China, and should I get out of this contract?"

POLITICO reports: ‘A shot at the bow’: Trump puts trading partners on notice

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, more comprehensive news and analysis on Trump and the incoming tariffs:

— World braces for ‘Tariff Man’ as Trump tries to bend countries to his will.

— Trump's tariff threat could boost auto, energy prices.

— Trump's tariff threat would hit oil from Canada and Mexico

— Mexico floats trade retaliation in response to Trump’s tariff threats.

— Grassley: Trump’s new tariffs threats are just ‘negotiating tool’ for now.

And our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN: Everything is (not) fine.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend caucus and QP. Later in the afternoon, he’ll meet virtually with Canada’s premiers and territorial leaders.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND has plans to attend caucus.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will meet with his party caucus. He also has plans to speak to reporters at 1:30 p.m.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will meet with the Association of Canadian Publishers first thing. At 9:30 a.m., she and Kitchener Centre MP MIKE MORRICE will discuss housing affordability. May will also meet the Canadian Alliance of Student Associations before attending the Green caucus.

DULY NOTED

— Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE headlines an evening party fundraiser at a private residence in Westmount, Quebec.

— Cabmins STEVEN GUILBEAULT and JONATHAN WILKINSON each have a date with a House committee this afternoon. Find the details below.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — INEZ JABALPURWALA has been named the next president and CEO of the Public Policy Forum. She takes over from EDWARD GREENSPON on Jan. 6.

Jabalpurwala is the global director of VINEx, an organization she built to explore how SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses influence brain health. She was founding president and CEO of the Brain Canada Foundation and boasts a resume longer than this Playbook.

ANDRÉ BEAULIEU, chair of PPF’s board of directors, called Jabalpurwala “one of Canada’s sharpest policy minds and most creative, inspiring leaders.”

In advance of today’s news, Jabalpurwala spoke to Playbook about urgent conversations, shrinking civility, good policy, and the things that keep her up at night.

What conversation are you most keen to get started in your new role?

Over its 37-year history, PPF has catalyzed a community of thought leaders, engaged citizens, partners and members who share the belief that good conversations lead to better policy. Thanks to EDWARD GREENSPON’s exceptional leadership, the organization is already strong in areas like climate, energy and geopolitical change. I add a health, sciences and technology policy background to the mix. PPF will continue to provide evidence-based insights and recommendations on the key issues of today and tomorrow.

What keeps you up at night?

I worry our civic spaces are shrinking and so too is our civility. It is easier to disagree and escalate on a screen; and in a changing media landscape we are losing trusted sources of truth. We don't always need to achieve consensus — creative tension can push us to better outcomes — but we need to work towards common purpose and positive, inspiring narratives.

What gets in the way of good policy?

When we spend too much time in echo chambers and fail to connect more broadly with people, we limit our marketplace of ideas. If policy is to be actionable, it needs to be more than theory; we need to bring in more voices and perspectives to hear what matters to all Canadians.

What gives you hope?

There is a lot to be hopeful about. Over more than two decades in the brain research ecosystem, I experienced the power of Canadian innovation and our culture of collaboration. I have also witnessed the transformation of people-centered priority setting and engagement to achieve better outcomes.

Where do you see Canada in five years?

The world needs Canada to be a confident nation.

I hope we will have found a way to build the massive infrastructure that is needed to decarbonize and electrify the economy. And to rebuild the kind of health system that is again the pride of Canadians and the envy of the world.

I hope we will have found a way to matter more to the United States, co-investing in critical mineral projects as well as shoring up our Arctic security. We also need to double down on AI, including driving the regulation that needs to happen for humans and AI to harmoniously coexist, and enable a greater adoption of the technologies that can improve the way we work and how we live.

PPF will help fill the gaps between aspirations and achievements.

For your radar

CPTPP YA IN VANCOUVER! — The Indo-Pacific trade bloc's delegates will sidestep politically sensitive decisions on China and Taiwan’s membership when they meet in Vancouver this week, multiple people familiar with the discussions have told GRAHAM LANKTREE of POLITICO Pro’s Morning Trade UK.

— Geopolitics scoop: Costa Rica will instead become the front-runner to join the 12-nation CPTPP pact after the U.K. completes its accession in December, three senior officials from member nations said.

Delegates hope that by putting off the decisions on China and Taiwan’s applications to a later date, they will avoid the thorny politics of Beijing’s One China policy, which considers the self-governing island as part of its territory.

— First in the door: The U.K. is the first new member to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which represents about 15 percent of the global economy and is seen as the leading alternative to the World Trade Organization.

— Canada can do: A key part of trade ministers' discussions will be the “review process Ottawa has spearheaded,” said a senior official from a CPTPP member nation.

Some chapters of the deal, first agreed in 2018, are nearly a decade old after they were first negotiated under the Obama administration.

DONALD TRUMP pulled out of the U.S.-led negotiations (formerly called TPP) in the opening days of his first administration. Talks were revived in 2017.

— Up with the upgrade: “There’s a sense the whole agreement needs upgrading,” said a second senior CPTPP nation official, noting they expect the bloc's ministers will sign off on updates to the deal.

— Digital dreams: Some chapters need an overhaul to get CPTPP “in line with the latest standards, particularly around digital trade,” said VINA NADJIBULLA, a vice-president at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada think tank. She expects reforms to be drawn from the digital economy partnership agreement between Singapore, New Zealand, Chile and Korea.

— Passing the baton: There are “a lot of high hopes for Canada as the chair,” Nadjibulla explained. New Zealand got the bloc to agree to the terms of reference for the review last year and “Canada now needs to show that it's keeping up that momentum and adding to that,” she said.

Lanktree’s scoop is here.

MEDIA ROOM

— Nova Scotia's TIM HOUSTON won a resounding majority victory last night following a campaign where his lead was never in doubt. Houston's PCs racked up more than 53 percent of the vote. The NDP will form the Official Opposition.

— DAVID SHRIBMAN writes in the Globe that Trump is making it clear beyond North America that “he is willing to disrupt not only the architecture of trade but also the broader relations between the U.S. and other countries.”

— From TREVOR TOMBE on The Hub: Is Canada betting too much on the United States?

— On the “Front Burner” pod: JAYME POISSON talks to TRACY WILKINSON and NATALIE ALCOBA about DONALD TRUMP and the “right-wing strongman feedback loop.”

— Our colleagues in Brussels report that a top EU lawmaker wants TikTok's chief executive to appear before the European Parliament to answer questions about the platform's role in Sunday’s shock Romania election.

— “Setting out to pay people to like you carries the obvious risk that they’ll take the money and keep right on hating you,” COLBY COSH writes in the National Post.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to COLIN ROBERTSON of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute (70!) and former DPM SHEILA COPPS.

Greetings also to The Logic's LAURA OSMAN.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Spotted: Snow, falling in downtown Ottawa — "pathetic fallacy," one Playbooker joked, reflective of the mood on the Hill … GT and Co's COLE HOGAN, noting federal Liberal ad spending catching up to the Conservatives.

Noted: The Canadian Union of Postal Workers' most recent bargaining update.

Movers and shakers: KEMA JOSEPH unveiled her new firm: St-Aude Advocacy, named "in honor of my grandmother, who was an entrepreneur in Haiti." Joseph will focus on "advancing purpose-driven initiatives at the intersection of culture, social impact and economic development."

ALEX HOWELL is now Airbnb's policy lead in Canada.

Media mentions: BEN MULRONEY launched his new show on 640 Toronto this week … ELIZABETH HOWELL is leaving Space.com after 12 years of contributions for a new gig to be announced next month.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

4:15 p.m. The Senate banking, commerce and the economy committee will discuss Canada’s monetary framework.

4:15 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee will study Canada’s interests in Africa.

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal affairs committee will study Bill S-15.

4:15 p.m. The Senate social affairs committee will work on Bill C-252.

4:30 p.m. MARIE-PHILIPPE BOUCHARD of TV5 Québec Canada will be at the House heritage committee to discuss the CBC local services.

4:30 p.m. The House international trade committee will discuss softwood lumber. On the witness roster: Groupe Lebel, Ontario Forest Industries Association, United Steelworkers, Québec Forest Industry Council and Sinclar Group Forest Products Ltd.

4:30 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will be at the House environment committee to take questions on Canada’s emissions reduction policies.

4:30 p.m. Energy and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON will be at the House natural resources committee to take questions on Supplementary Estimates.

4:30 p.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will consult witnesses on the Fisheries Act review.

4:30 p.m. The House public accounts committee continues its study of Sustainable Development Technology Canada.

5:30 p.m. The House status of women committee continues its study of gender-based violence.

6:45 p.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee will hear from the Office of the Independent Special Interlocutor for Missing Children and Unmarked Graves and Burial Sites.

6:45 p.m. The Senate national finance committee will study Supplementary Estimates with Treasury Board officials.

6:45 p.m. The Senate transport and communications committee will study CBC and its local services.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: THELMA J. CHALIFOUX was the first Métis woman appointed to serve in the Senate. She was appointed Nov. 26, 1997.

Props to JIM MUNSON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL (who also landed Monday’s Q), MARC LEBLANC, NANCI WAUGH, ANTHONY VALENTI, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, PATRICK DION, RAY DEL BIANCO and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Wednesday’s question: Here’s one from our live trivia event on Monday night:

The CBC’s SCOTT RUSSELL once said of this gold-medal winning senator: “She transcends all of the Games and any labels you want to put on the Games. She's a champion, no asterisk. She's just a champion.” Who was he talking about?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to advertise in Ottawa Playbook? Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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