Donald Trump in many ways pitched himself as the candidate of the future in 2024 — embracing Elon Musk, space and satellite broadband; reveling in a new wave of Silicon Valley support. Now that he’s won and is building an administration, the focus turns to more concrete questions, like: What about the longer-term future? The Biden administration had some big visions for American tech R&D. Though many never got fully funded, it was clear the White House wanted to lay the groundwork for American investment in far-off technologies like quantum, personalized medicine and alternative materials for microchips. By contrast, last time he was elected, Trump kicked off his term by proposing deep cuts to the entire science and technology enterprise — including, controversially, basic research, which had long been seen as a bipartisan area. The first Trump administration budget was deemed the toughest for science and engineering in four decades, rivaling even the fiscal strategy of the early Reagan years. (Congress, which holds the purse strings, charted its own course and largely spared science and tech priorities.) As the next Trump administration takes shape, it has triggered some of the same concerns. One reason is the strong directive to rethink the size of government by slashing through agency budgets and tackling the deficit. Trump has tapped Musk and MAGA booster Vivek Ramaswamy to head a new “Department of Government Efficiency,” and Musk promised to wipe out at least $2 trillion from the federal budget. “My concern is that the DOGE effort will end up focusing on lots of basic research — kinds of funding that don’t seem to have any immediate practical applications,” said James Pethokoukis, an economic policy analyst for the American Enterprise Institute think tank. “It will be easy for budget cutters to look at all the R&D being done by the private sector and wonder why government has to do it at all — despite the fact that government and business do different kinds of R&D.” On X, Musk has already raised an eyebrow at several federal studies that he finds silly and suggested that he could clean house at science agencies. Other factions of the GOP, such China hawks or those keen on NASA’s space ambitions, may find ways to protect their interests. Pethokoukis predicted that the places most likely to get funding are “areas that seem relevant to our technology race with China, such as artificial intelligence, and areas which fit into Trump’s big themes, such as the importance of energy.” If Trump takes his cues from Silicon Valley, that may include advanced energy research in nuclear and fusion technologies. Science advocates are hoping to stay off the chopping block. Sudip Parikh, the chief executive of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, described an “inherent tension” between the transition’s new government waste office and the fact that a lot of American R&D is still funded, directly or indirectly, by the federal government. “My hope is that despite the many challenges, and despite the rhetoric of giant cuts to discretionary spending, the investments to science and technology are going to be seen for what they are, which is really good for the country,” he told DFD. Parikh added that he’ll be watching personnel decisions closely for agencies such as the Office of Management and Budget and Office of Science and Technology Policy — “just looking to see that scientists and engineers and technical people take on those roles.” As with anything Trump-related, there are many competing power centers at work. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has advocated for more innovation spending through the CHIPS and Science Act, said there are now “different interest groups and different perspectives competing at minimum, and to some extent, at war within the MAGA coalition.” Even while underfunded, Biden administration programs such as the federal tech hubs have brought innovation testbeds to new states, broadening the set of would-be advocates in Congress beyond those with national labs or high-tech industry in their districts. Muro did agree, however, that extreme caution about overall science budget levels is “highly warranted.” For those feeling more optimistic about research under Trump, what happened during his last administration was instructive. Toward the end of his first term, Trump prioritized so-called industries of the future by requesting that Congress double R&D spending for artificial intelligence and quantum information science within two years. Michael Kratsios, Trump’s then-chief technology officer, justified the ask at the time by saying that the country was facing a “global power competition” for AI, quantum computing and other critical technologies. Congress bumped up some funding, but didn’t quite deliver on the full promise. Kratsios is now back as one of the key figures advising the Trump team on tech policy issues. Advocates for research across the board are planning to raise the threat of China as a geopolitical competitor, as part of their case to Republicans. “China is a peer in many of these areas, and we've got to compete, and that requires investment. That's still one of our really important, important talking points,” said Parikh. It’s not yet clear how that argument will land. Even with alarm about China’s technological advancements in both parties, two years of spending caps have squeezed science agencies, which were originally promised much higher support in CHIPS and Science. And the calls for curtailing government spending and fiscal austerity are not going away. “These are going to be very tough face-offs,” Muro said. | 
