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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → Trump’s Cabinet picks vs. Canada: Tale of the tweets. → What to expect in the first 100 days of a Republican White House. → A COP29 Q&A with Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
Donald Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center. | Evan Vucci/AP | SOCIAL LISTENING — DONALD TRUMP’s team has been working at top speed to build the president-elect’s Cabinet. Last night, Fox News host PETE HEGSETH was tapped to become Pentagon chief. And South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM was chosen to helm the Department of Homeland Security. POLITICO is tracking the latest news, analysis and updates on the presidential transition. More than a few of Trump’s top picks have strong feelings about Canada. Ottawa keeps insisting there’s nothing to worry about. But even a cursory review of the social media feeds of the incoming Cabinet suggests a different story. — Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ will become national security adviser. He’s expected to take a tough-on-China stance — an area where he's accused Canada of being weak. He criticized Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU for abstaining from a non-biding House vote in 2021 declaring genocide in Xinjiang, questioned the PM’s handling of a spy balloon in 2023, and attacked him after a lithium mining company was sold to a Chinese firm. Waltz also took shots over allegations that China meddled in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 federal elections. In May, Waltz shared a video from Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE. “This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in,” Waltz said of Poilievre. — Sen. MARCO RUBIO is expected to be named secretary of State. In 2016, he called Trudeau’s statement on the death of former Cuban President Fidel Castro “shameful & embarrassing.” This past July, he condemned Canada’s decision to take in Gaza refugees saying it poses “a national security threat to the U.S. northern border.” But he’s also commended Canada’s move to prohibit a Chinese student from studying in Ontario. — Rep. ELISE STEFANIK has been named U.S. ambassador to the U.N. after serving in New York where she promoted cross-border trade. She’s been vocal about a dairy trade dispute and raised concerns about northern border security. During the pandemic, she was critical of Canada's ArriveCAN app and Covid-19 measures that restricted border access. She also opposed the sale of the lithium mining company. — STEPHEN MILLER, deputy chief of staff for policy, has taken to calling the PM “far-left Trudeau” and he’s clapped back at him after Trudeau said it was “horrific” that the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Last year he said “Canada has become increasingly authoritarian and despotic.” — Former Gov. MIKE HUCKABEE, who was nominated U.S. ambassador to Israel, also doesn’t hold back. Last year, he called out Parliament for giving a Nazi-linked veteran a standing ovation, and he’s said if he were in a fight, he’d prefer former Miss Ukraine beside him than Trudeau. He’s also taken personal aim at the PM, calling him “ Justin ‘blackface’ Trudeau” and saying he has “ fake eyebrows” and a “costume shop.” — ELON MUSK will lead a newly created “Department of Government Efficiency” with VIVEK RAMASWAMY. Musk has declared “Canada is dying” and predicted Trudeau “will be gone in the upcoming election.” Last year, he accused Trudeau of trying to “crush free speech” after the Liberal government passed the Online Streaming Act. "I don't see a whole lot of friends of Canada in there," Carleton prof FEN HAMPSON tells KELLY GERALDINE MALONE of The Canadian Press. And from JORGE BARRERA of CBC News this morning: Trump's border czar says Canadian border is an 'extreme' vulnerability. THIS IS FINE — Trudeau insists all will be well. “We were able to make sure that Canada and the United States together were great at creating good jobs and economic growth on both sides of the border by working as friends and partners, and we’re going to do that again,” he said Tuesday in New Brunswick. Today in Ottawa: Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will chair a meeting of the Canada-U.S. Cabinet committee. Keep track: Make POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Trump’s transition. | | | | A message from The Public Policy Forum: The Public Policy Forum builds bridges among diverse participants in the policymaking process, offering new perspectives and feeding fresh ideas into policy discussions. We research issues, convene frank, publicly interested dialogue, find practical policy solutions and celebrate exceptional policy leaders. We also publish reports that help move the policymaking needle. Most recently we released our 2024 Atlantic Momentum Index, which highlighted a region experiencing unprecedented growth while grappling with the challenges that accompany rapid expansion. | | | |  "The problems Canada might face are not sequential problems," says former U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman. "It’s going to be a swarm of problems." | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP | DIPLOMATIC ADVICE — Good luck with keeping calm, says Bruce Heyman, former ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama. He offered Playbook his takes on the next Trump administration. Some highlights from our conversation: — Tsunami incoming: “For the last six or eight months I have been trying to warn Canada of a potential Trump presidency. I have described it as a tsunami warning. It doesn’t mean a tsunami will take effect, but it’s a warning that conditions are right, and that this could be potentially super bad.” — Migrant policies: “[Trump’s] going to start rounding up people and he’s going to deport them. The question is what will people do? We saw what happened in his last administration when they were beginning to talk about that with Haitians. They came over in the dead of winter in Quebec through Roxham Road. That was just one little island of a group of people, and it had a profound effect.” — Trade levers: “I don’t know exactly what the U.S. needs, but I’d find whatever it is Canada has that is a critical component for the functioning of some parts of the American economy. Start building that list together and use those as exemptions.” — One-on-ones: “You have to develop these relationships pretty quickly, and you’re gonna have to also figure out — because Donald Trump is so transactional: What is it you give for what it is you want to get. That’s how he thinks. You got to give him a win of some type, but that can be a win for Canada too.” — Prediction time: “I personally expect that in the first 100 days of his administration, he’s going to do what he promised. Which means that the problems Canada might face are not sequential problems. It’s going to be a swarm of problems that could hit the Canadian government simultaneously, and the odds are you will not have a U.S. ambassador in place during that time period.” — In related reading: “Canada will come to like Trump, as it did Reagan,” CONRAD BLACK predicted over on The Hub. “The Canadian Trump-haters may bay at the harvest moon now, but we will hear no more of them after about six months.” | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is heading to Bermuda to deliver a eulogy at the funeral of Peter Green. The PM will make it a day trip, his office said.
— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will chair the Cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations at 1 p.m. She will stick around after for media questions. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will attend a rally at Bill’s Heavy Duty Enterprises in Castlegar, British Columbia, at 6 p.m. local time. — Playbook does not have lines of sight into the itineraries of Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events on her agenda. | | | | The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | |  Steven Guilbeault heads Canada's delegation to the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. | Rafiq Maqbool/AP | CANADA AT COP29 — “I'm not panicking and I think we shouldn't be panicked,” Environment and Climate Change Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT told POLITICO’s ANNE MCELVOY this week in reply to a question about the U.S. election. “We should be organized," he said. "We should be working together to make sure that we continue moving on regardless of what happened.” Guilbeault spoke to McElvoy in Baku, Azerbaijan, where he is leading Canada’s delegation at the U.N. climate summit. Their conversation is on the latest “Power Play” pod, which dropped this morning. “We've worked with both a Republican administration and a Democrat administration during our tenure, and we've figured ways to continue advancing the issue of climate change and energy transition,” he said. — For the record: Asked to defend Canada’s climate record, Guilbeault told McElvoy, “I'm obviously not denying the fact that Canada is a large emitter. I mean, we're the fourth largest oil and gas producer. That's just a fact. But the fact is also that for the first time now in Canada's history we are putting in place an unprecedented amount of effort, energy, regulations, investment to bend the curve and to work so that Canada can be more and more part of the solution and less and less part of the problem.” — Quote of note: During a separate media briefing, Guilbeault was asked about former Finance Minister BILL MORNEAU’s suggestion that Canada rethink plans for an emissions cap. “The time to fight climate change is now, not tomorrow. It's not the day after tomorrow,” Guilbeault said. “Climate impacts won't wait. The more we wait, in fact, the more we Canadians and people around the world will bear the brunt of climate impacts.” — In related reading: The Star’s ALEX BALLINGALL reports out of that call: “Trudeau government backs talks for a levy on shipping to help developing nations fight climate change.” VICTOR SWEZEY of the Globe reports: Canada launches $2B public-private finance platform for developing countries. — Follow this crew: POLITICO has a team of reporters in Azerbaijan: KARL MATHIESEN, SARA SCHONHARDT, ZIA WEISE, SUZANNE LYNCH, CHARLIE COOPER and ZACK COLMAN. | | | | A message from The Public Policy Forum:   | | | | | For your radar | |
CLASH OF THE TITANS — Meta and Canada’s broadcasting regulator continue to butt heads over the tech giant’s obligations under the Online News Act.
The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission asked Meta to prove it’s complying with the act, which aims to ensure certain companies pay news outlets for content made available on their platforms. Instead of paying, Meta banned news on Instagram and Facebook last August. The commission’s request for proof came last month, and is a step — as required by the Act — that Meta has seemingly dragged its feet on. — Meta’s response: On Oct. 17, Meta shared details with the commission in a missive it declared “confidential.” Meta argued their correspondence contains sensitive commercial information. It argued that it would not be in the public’s interest to have Meta reveal how it is restricting news on its platforms in Canada. For one thing, it could inspire more users to find workarounds. — Too bad, so sad: Following a review of broadcasting laws, the commission asked Meta to resubmit its letter without the confidential designation by Tuesday. “This information would be relevant to the administration of the Act and its regulations,” the CRTC wrote to Meta’s public policy director Dan Ball last week. “It could allow for informed public comment on Meta’s practices and whether these practices implicate the Act, which would strongly serve the public interest.” — Another side of the coin: CBC announced Tuesday it is adding 25 local jobs as a result of Google’s deal with Ottawa.
| | | | Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy. | | | | | | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC: 'A swarm of problems ... simultaneously.'
From Pro's GAVIN BADE: Lighthizer and his allies lay groundwork for Trump’s massive new tariffs. In other news for Pro readers: — APEC economies to advance FTA framework. — U.S. quietly abandons push for sharper cuts in climate pollution. — Ontario premier pitches US-Canada free trade deal — minus Mexico. — Exxon’s chief has a warning for Republicans. — WTO sets Nov. 28-29 meeting to consider Okonjo-Iweala's reappointment. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | |
— Two Ottawa teens allegedly plotted to bomb a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill before they were arrested by the RCMP, according to documents obtained by Global News.
— TERA SISCO, who lost her 6-year-old son during flash flooding in Nova Scotia in 2023, shares her story in The Guardian. “This is the most meaningful work I've done in my life,” said the University of Victoria’s SEAN HOLMAN, who assisted with the telling in a series timed for COP29. — From STEPH KWETÁSEL’WET WOOD in The Narwhal: Is B.C. ready for the next atmospheric river? — On “Real Talk,” RYAN JESPERSEN enlisted doctors to help answer this question: “Is it even possible to heal health care?” — From KATHRYN MAY and Policy Options: Public service job cuts loom as Ottawa misses spending and deficit targets. — NICK MURRAY of CP reports: CHRYSTIA FREELAND says carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free. — LUC RINALDI checked in on the battle between schools and screens. — In case you missed it via the Globe: Ottawa has ordered B.C., Montreal ports reopened and binding arbitration to resolve labor disputes. — Fogo Island’s ZITA COBB told The New York Times: “If you start with the intention of properly developing the things that we have and the things that we love, then you’re going to have a world of very specific and joyful places,” | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to longtime Quebec Liberal PIERRE ARCAND, former MP LAURIN LIU and Ottawa city councilor RILEY BROCKINGTON.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way. Movers and shakers: Bloomberg reports that Alberta has considered hiring former PM STEPHEN HARPER to oversee its public pension fund manager. Noted: The federal government has announced the creation of the Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute. In memoriam: Former B.C. premier JOHN HORGAN died Tuesday after his third go-around with cancer. He was 65. The Canadian Press has gathered tributes. VAUGHN PALMER writes in the Vancouver Sun: "John Horgan didn't want to be NDP leader and hated Opposition work. But once in power, he became B.C.'s widely popular 'Premier Dad.'"
| | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | |
This week is a constituency week — the House and Senate do not sit.
| | | | A message from The Public Policy Forum: The Public Policy Forum’s latest report, called Adjusting the Sails: 2024 Atlantic Canada Momentum Index , makes a convincing case that Atlantic Canada is showing momentum across a range of indicators, including the macro economy, the labour market, human capital, innovation and investment, and quality of life. "Every sailor knows the old saying: We can't direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails," the report notes. "Atlantic Canada is in the biggest boom since the Second World War, but it won't last forever. In the last decade, social and demographic shifts as unpredictable as the wind have come from every compass point in Atlantic Canada — and it's clear political and economic leaders need to trim the sails if the region is to maintain its momentum." Sign up for PPF’s weekly Atlantic Momentum newsletter to keep up to date with breaking economic and innovation news from the region. | | | | | TRIVIA | |
Tuesday’s answer: HENRI SÉVÉRIN BÉLAND wrote “My Three Years in a German Prison.”
Props to JUSTINE POURAILLY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SCOTT LOHNES, LAURA JARVIS, RAY DEL BIANCO and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Wednesday’s question: On this date in history, the Shuttle Remote Manipulator System was put to the test. By what name is it better known? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and SUE ALLAN. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to advertise in Ottawa Playbook? Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
