Dems hope for House consolation prize in California

Nov 14, 2024

By Lindsey Holden, Tyler Katzenberger and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by California Resources Corporation

The U.S. Capitol building is seen.

Democrats had high hopes that they’d have enough flippable seats in California to win the speaker’s gavel. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE BUZZ: SUPER MINORITY — Turns out, the path to a Democratic House majority doesn’t run through California after all.

Republicans late yesterday officially won enough seats to take control of Congress — and Democrat Will Rollins’ loss to GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in Riverside County was among the final victories that got them there.

Democrats had high hopes that they’d have enough flippable seats in California to win the speaker’s gavel. Instead, they’re crossing their fingers for a consolation prize: keeping the margin relatively narrow. They're still eyeing two close races that remain: flipping either Rep. Michelle Steel’s Orange County district or Rep. John Duarte’s in the Central Valley.

It was the second cycle in a row that ended with state leaders’ dreams dashed. And a handful of the Democrats who took on incumbent Republicans this election were in rematch contests they failed to win in 2022.

That includes Rollins. Although his loss was a major disappointment for Democrats, their confidence in his prospects may always have been a bit misplaced.

In spite of the fact that Rollins outperformed expectations two years ago — losing to Calvert by just 4.7 points without party support — his district always presented one of the biggest challenges for Democrats this election.

Although it’s a purple area after the last redistricting effort, it still leans red. Voters narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2020, which was not the case in the other battleground House districts.

Even with Rollins’ fundraising chops — he took in $3.6 million in the third quarter alone — and significant help from Democrats this time around, he couldn’t overcome a new tide of Republican fervor. Rollins conceded the race late Wednesday.

“I’m going to be honest: losing sucks. Especially after campaigning back-to-back for nearly three years. But I will never regret running,” Rollins said in his concession statement.

Trump even made a rare campaign stop near the district in October, rallying in Coachella alongside Calvert and encouraging voters to turn out for the congressmember.

California remains a deep-blue state, but Rollins coming up short in Riverside County is a tough reminder for Democrats: Away from the coast, the Golden State remains a tough battleground in many areas. That’s especially true in a cycle where the top of the Democratic ticket drew less enthusiasm than expected.

That’s not to say California Democrats performed poorly.

If the latest results hold, all of the state’s currently blue seats will remain blue. Democrats even held onto Rep. Katie Porter’s open district, after Dave Min notched a victory in Orange County.

And Democrat George Whitesides did his part by flipping GOP Rep. Mike Garcia’s northern Los Angeles County district.

There are still two potential blue pickup opportunities. Democrat Derek Tran is quickly closing in on GOP Rep. Steel in her very tough-to-flip 45th District in Orange County. The Wednesday evening vote count continued to break strongly for Tran, and Democrats are feeling optimistic about the race.

Meanwhile, Democrat Adam Gray still has a narrow shot at unseating Duarte in the 13th District.

California election data expert Paul Mitchell feels strongly Tran is on track to win. He estimates there are at least 10,000 ballots left to count in the district, which are shifting strongly Democratic.

“Whereas the shift in the 45th is a very strong blue shift, in [the 13th Disrict] it’s more like a pale blue shift,” he said. “It's just not going to be as dramatic.”

Mitchell estimates there are still about 44,000 ballots left to count in Gray’s district, but the blue shift may happen more slowly, especially because it crisscrosses several counties.

“It's a marathon here instead of a sprint, which is what we have in 45,” he said.

— with help from Melanie Mason

GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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ON THE HILL

Alex Padilla.

Sen. Alex Padilla is working to advance California's policy goals before the second Trump administration takes office. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

RESIST, SENATE EDITION — Sen. Alex Padilla has been working with Gov. Gavin Newsom to advance California’s interests in Washington before Republicans take over the White House and both chambers of Congress. In an interview with POLITICO, the California Democrat dug in on a host of policy concerns including defending the state’s regulatory authority and waivers pending before the Environmental Protection Agency.

But Padilla also talked a little politics with our own Alex Nieves , sidestepping a question about whether he’s been approached to take over the Democratic National Committee. Padilla said he and colleagues were just beginning to digest the last election. There’s still “a lot of analysis and reflection to do before we turn the page and look at the next cycle,” he said. Padilla also was mum on whether he thinks Sen. Laphonza Butler would run for DNC chair. “I have not asked her about it, she has not mentioned it to me,” he said.

The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now.

EXCUSE ME, WHO? — Trump’s surprise decision to tap now-former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for U.S. attorney general — yes, the same Matt Gaetz who helped oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker and faced a Justice Department investigation into sex trafficking allegations — has California Congress members on both sides of the aisle scratching their heads.

Central Valley Republican Rep. Duarte told Punchbowl’s Mica Soellner that Gaetz would be a “compromised AG” because of a pending House ethics investigation and said “there are better choices."

Democratic Sen.-elect Adam Schiff was more forceful, writing on X that Gaetz’s confirmation “would mean affirming the worst possible abuses of DOJ” and “must be rejected.” And former California Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring weighed in with a simple “No. And no.” on X before suggesting Senate Republicans do “a little more ‘advising’” on Trump’s picks.

They’re not alone: other lawmakers in Washington are doubtful Gaetz can get confirmed by the Senate, POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna reports.

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INLAND EMPIRE

Pearl Taylor Devers, the chairperson for the Palm Springs Section 14 Survivors group, third from left, talks with survivors.

Residents who were displaced from the Section 14 neighborhood in Palm Springs and their descendants have pushed for reparations for years. | Damian Dovarganes/AP

REPARATIONS ACTION — Palm Springs is set to approve a $27 million reparations agreement with Black and Latino families who were forced out of their homes in the 1960s. As our colleague Eric He reported Wednesday, the desert city would be one of the first in the country to grant reparations.

The proposal will come before the City Council for a final vote today. Under the agreement, Palm Springs would provide $5.9 million in direct compensation. The money would go to hundreds of families in a predominantly Black and Latino neighborhood known as Section 14, who lost their homes in the 1960s after the city demolished the one-mile-square area to build commercial development.

The city would, in addition, contribute $10 million each to a first-time homebuyer assistance program and a community land trust for affordable housing.

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

FIRED UP — If anyone can sell climate preparedness to Trump, it might be the firetech industry, which just formed a trade group to lobby the state and federal government for better procurement policies and more funding. Read yesterday’s California Climate for more on how they're seizing the moment.

TOP TALKERS

LINCOLN CONCEDES — Republican and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln conceded the race for a Central Valley House seat to incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Harder last night, writing in a statement that he remains “committed to our community and our shared mission to make the Valley a better place” despite his loss. Harder declared victory earlier this week, though the race has yet to be called by the Associated Press.

FURRY FRAUDSTER? — You can dress like a bear. You can (allegedly) slice up your Mercedes and Rolls Royce with meat claws while dressed as said bear. But you can’t stop state investigators from reviewing the footage and concluding that your $141,839 insurance claim for a bear attack “was clearly a human in a bear suit,” as four Californians learned when police arrested them on insurance fraud and conspiracy charges. Our own Camille von Kaenel has the fishy details on Beargate.

PESKIN’S PLANS — Aaron Peskin is preparing to rally the progressive troops against wealthy power players in San Francisco following his failed mayoral bid, the San Francisco Standard reports . “I don’t think San Francisco needs new organizations. They just need better coordination and leadership,” Peskin, who will term out of his Board of Supervisors seat in January, told the Standard. “And this is a ripe opportunity to bring them all together.”

UNDER THE WEATHER — A California-based, anti-vaccine group founded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. isn’t doing so hot. NBC News reports that the organization, Children’s Health Defense, saw its revenue fall by more than $3 million last year. But RFK Jr., who took a leave of absence to run for president, received a $326,000 salary for 15 weeks of work as the group’s chairman.

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AROUND THE STATE

— Los Angeles schools’ cellphone ban policy will be stricter than what a recently passed state law requires. (Los Angeles Times)

— Meet the Bay Area mayor living with his mom amid the region’s affordable housing crisis. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— Sacramento city leaders are delaying a vote on reparations and racial equity plans after the city manager’s office made “major changes” to the resolutions. (Sacramento Bee)

— Researchers at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute say they’ve discovered a new, bioluminescent species of sea slug. (Associated Press)

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: SECRET SAUCE — Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia is auditioning for the job of Democratic Caucus leadership representative — and he’s getting spicy in the process. Garcia on Wednesday passed out mini bottles of Tapatío, which came with Tapatío koozies and a Garcia-branded lanyard — you know, in case busy lawmakers need hot sauce on the go (Tapatío is made in his LA County district).

The caucus leadership rep advocates for newer members, ensuring their voices are heard by party leaders. Garcia, who was elected in 2022, was president of his freshman class and raised over $1 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle. Watch out Sandra Bullock, he’s gunning for Miss Congeniality!

BIRTHDAYS — Blink-182’s Travis Barker … Patrick Warburton

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