Early voting numbers are in

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Nov 01, 2024 View in browser   By Jason Beeferman Presented by  Early voting numbers in New York are in, and they show extraordinary high turnout that could be a boon for Republicans. | Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images ADAMS' TRIAL DATE: A Manhattan judge has set Mayor Eric Adams’ federal trial to start on April 21, 2025, just two months before the Democratic primary where the mayor plans to stand for reelection. “I do think it’s important for the public to have an answer one or or another,” on Adams’ case before the primary, Judge Dale Ho said Friday in federal court in Lower Manhattan. The election is set for June 24, while early voting starts June 14. Ho has suggested he expects a trial would last four to six weeks — which could mean Adams’ case could continue into the very month of the election. COUNTING THE (EARLY) VOTE: The numbers from the first six days of early voting are in. And it shows more voters are heading to the polls before Election Day than ever before as early voting comes to a close on Sunday. The early numbers, released by the state Democratic Party, reveal some good news for Republicans. In the seven Democrat-designated battleground districts, just 41 percent of early voters are registered Democrats. Another 34 percent are Republicans and 20 percent are unaffiliated, according to state Dems. In the state where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one and Biden handily won almost every battleground congressional district, that split looks good for Republicans. It could also reflect that Republicans are more comfortable voting early than in previous cycles, when Donald Trump disparaged early voting. New York Democrats are trying to project calm, saying they had expected these Republican voters to cast their ballot anyway — it’s just that a surprising number are doing it via early voting. “The unprecedented effort of our coordinated campaign is turning out more Democrats across New York’s battleground than ever before,” said Nate Munson, the Deputy Coordinated Campaign Director at the state Democratic Party. “We’re feeling incredibly confident about the thousands of volunteers we have ready to knock doors and make calls to voters this final weekend.” According to the Dems, over 80 percent of voters who already voted early in battleground districts voted in 2020 and 2022. So, according to the party, there’s no indication this election will be characterized by a surge of low-propensity voters. Republicans are jubilant nonetheless. “NY Democrats led by Kathy Hochul are in total free fall,” said Alex DeGrasse, executive director of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s campaign. “No amount of spin can hide that. NY Republicans are turning out in record numbers for Early In-Person voting, vastly outperforming our 2022 margins in every seat, some by 50%. The Democrat Vote-By-Mail ‘firewall’ is the lowest it’s ever been as we see Democrats failing to return their ballots.” The higher proportion of early GOP voters in New York is consistent with national trends, as Trump’s campaign distances itself from his rhetoric that sowed doubt in the practice in 2020. Overall, turnout is high. At least 550,000 people have already voted early in battleground districts — more than 2022’s entire early voting period, where 396,043 showed up to vote in those districts. Dems also say more women, people of color and younger voters have shown up to the polls. But the early voting numbers certainly cheered Syracuse-area Rep. Brandon Williams, who expressed extreme confidence in his prospects against Democrat John Mannion. “There’s no question it means that enthusiasm is through the roof,” Williams said after stumping in every NY-22 county Thursday and as he prepared to host House Speaker Mike Johnson at a rally this afternoon. Reminded by Playbook that he is the country’s most vulnerable House Republican, Williams responded, “I’ve got to tell you that the facts on the ground sure don’t feel like that.” As of noon today, Onondaga and Madison counties had seen a combined 60,000 early votes, according to their boards of elections. Williams’ closing argument has sought to cast Mannion as a face of Albany Democrats. “It’s cashless bail, Raise the Age. It’s taxes. It’s the perception of corruption,” he said. Mannion, a state senator, has responded — including at a recent CNY debate — by saying he works across the aisle rather than engaging in attacks on one party and name-calling. The Democratic challenger will cast an early ballot Saturday morning when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in the central New York district to stump with him. — Jason Beeferman and Emily Ngo   A message from Uber: New York City Uber riders pay $700 Million in taxes and fees annually* That’s more than the entire budget for New York City Parks Department. *Based on trips originating from NYC in 2023. Learn more.   From the Capitol Gov. Kathy Hochul announced funding to stem car theft in upstate New York. | Mike Groll/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul DUDE STOLE MY CAR: Gov. Kathy Hochul wants to tackle car thefts in Syracuse — a small-bore concern that could have broader political implications. The governor in central New York today touted a $5 million plan that includes money for youth diversion programs to address a spike in stolen automobiles that has bedeviled law enforcement. “It’s not just disruptive, it’s damaging,” she told reporters. Hochul has pointed to a broad drop in violent crimes in many parts of the state. Shootings, for example, are down 44 percent in the three years since she became governor. A drop crime is a good political story for her to tell. Hochul ran for a full term in 2022 and Republicans focused their attacks around public safety concerns. In response, the governor has made a point of reporting a steady decline in shootings and efforts to stop the flow of illegal guns into the state. But property theft has been a harder issue to tackle. Earlier this year she was able to include provisions meant to address a rise in organized retail theft, including more help for business owners to address the problem. Syracuse isn’t the only city that experienced a car theft problem. Buffalo and Rochester were also plagued by a rise in property thefts made worse, in part, by TikTok videos showing young people how to steal Kias and Hyundais. In those cities, drones and license plate readers were deployed to stem the thefts. But each city is different, Hochul said. “When I see a problem in some part of the state, when it comes to public safety, we will figure out a customized strategy to adapt to what their concerns are,” she said. — Nick Reisman    A message from Uber:   FROM CITY HALL City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams is leading the legislative body's effort to build on the mayor's "City of Yes" housing plan. | Emil Cohen/NYC Council Media Unit CITY OF YASS: The City Council is making it clear they want to significantly increase the housing and infrastructure spending in Mayor Eric Adams’ hotly debated "City of Yes" zoning reform. In its own plan announced today — termed “City for All” — the council sought to tackle the “lack of commitments for affordability, infrastructure and housing protections” it sees within the mayor’s plan. Negotiations between the parties have been heating up ahead of a council vote later this fall — and the list of priorities unveiled by the council today sheds light on commitments the legislative body is seeking. The council is asking for increased capital funding for affordable housing production — including more units for the lowest-income New Yorkers and more homeownership opportunities — and an expanded eviction prevention program. They’re also calling for funding to improve flooding and sewer problems and upgrades to infrastructure to accommodate increased residential density. The council generally avoided specific funding amounts in its plan, but called to restore a $25.5 million cut from a city program that fights tenant harassment. They also called for expanded access to CityFHEPS rental vouchers and a more streamlined application process. “We must go beyond zoning reforms to address all the unrelenting housing pressures that leave New Yorkers struggling to afford finding or staying in homes,” Speaker Adrienne Adams said in a statement. “Without holistic solutions, our city’s severe housing and affordability crisis will only worsen.” Mayor Adams’ plan, which would overhaul the city’s zoning code with an eye toward boosting development, has garnered especially staunch pushback in outer borough suburban-style neighborhoods. “We look forward to continuing our already productive conversation with the City Council to address the housing crisis,” City Hall spokesperson William Fowler said in a statement. “As discussions advance, we are encouraged to see that we continue to share many of the same policy goals and that the City Council recognizes this generational opportunity to move the needle on the city’s long-standing housing shortage.” — Janaki Chada and Jason Beeferman CAB FAIR: Uber and Lyft drivers have been fighting for better working conditions in the city, and they’re not thrilled with this morning’s response from Taxi and Limousine Commissioner David Do. One of city’s largest taxi and rideshare drivers’ union and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander held a briefing this morning to demand the TLC, which sets drivers’ rates, change regulations on minimum wages and driver lockouts, which can abruptly prevent drivers from working. Two months ago, the New York Taxi Workers Alliance sent TLC a petition with similar demands and earlier this week Lander wrote a letter to TLC to express his support. In the letter, Lander also requested driver income data, compliance measures, utilization rates that track drivers’ time engaged in trips versus idling, and communications related to drivers being locked out from using the app. TLC Commissioner David Do responded to Lander’s letter, saying he too has “concerns about the companies’ recent practices,” and included the requested data. But this morning Do told the NYTWA that rule changes are entirely dependent on the Board of Commissioners adopting the proposed rules, which TLC has no control over. That did not sit well with the drivers’ union. “TLC's response is not a response, it’s a slap in the face and an abdication of duty — legal and ethical,” said NYTWA Executive Director Bhairavi Desai. “Under their own rules, TLC has to accept or reject the Petition — telling us basically to wait for rulemaking in the ‘near future’ is not a legitimate reply.” —Timmy Faccicola   A message from Uber: Ever thought about what it’s like to drive for Uber in New York? Uber Drivers earn $32 per hour.* And that’s before incentives and tips They also get benefits including dental insurance, vision coverage, mental health support, and workers’ compensation through the Black Car Fund and Driver Benefits Fund. *Average earnings per online hour from January - July 2024 based on trips originating from NYC Learn more.   IN OTHER NEWS... — JUDGE REJECTS ADAMS’ BID: A long-shot bid from Adams’ lawyer to sanction the government for alleged leaks about their investigation was denied by the judge. (New York Post) — RAY MCGUIRE, NEXT TREASURY SEC?: The one-time mayoral contender is close to Kamala Harris and could be Janet Yellen’s successor. (Bloomberg) — SHE’S BRINGING FRESH AIR: The trustworthy Maria Torres-Springer is bringing some calm to a scandal-stricken City Hall, according to over 20 people who know her. (City & State) — FOLLOW THE MONEY: A breakdown of spending in New York’s congressional districts. (Gothamist) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.   Follow us on Twitter Jason Beeferman @JasonBeeferman   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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