How Musk's mission to Mars could reshape government

Presented by CTIA: How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures
Nov 14, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Derek Robertson

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JEZERO CRATER, MARS - FEBRUARY 18:  In this handout image provided by NASA, the first high-resolution, color image to be sent back by the Hazard Cameras (Hazcams) on the underside of NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover after its landing in the area known as Jezero crater on February 18, 2021 on the planet Mars. A key objective for Perseverance's mission on Mars is astrobiology, including the search for signs of   ancient microbial life. The rover will characterize the planet's geology and past climate, paving the way for human exploration of the Red Planet, and be the first mission to collect and cache Martian rock and regolith.

The first high-resolution color photo from NASA's Perseverance Mars rover, from 2021. | NASA via Getty Images

As Elon Musk’s footprint in Washington grows, it’s easy to lose track of what the mogul has said motivates his political activity in the first place: his desire to turn humanity into what he calls a “multiplanetary species.”

“We want Starfleet to be real,” Musk insisted onstage in the closing days of president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign.

In public comments, Musk has painted the entire GOP policy slate as a necessary prerequisite for getting humans to Mars. He has put this, at times, very bluntly: “Vote for @realDonaldTrump if you want humanity to make it to Mars!”, he posted on X. He sees conservative policy hobbyhorses like immigration, fertility rates or DEI programs as part of an existential risk facing humanity that he hopes to overcome by colonizing other planets.

Now that Trump has won, the two men have the opportunity to lay the foundation for that lofty goal.

A crucial tool for Musk could be his new “Department of Governmental Efficiency,” which will function outside government and make recommendations for cuts to, in his words, “excess government spending.”

The $2 trillion in cuts he’s promised could be a double-edged sword for his space ambitions. It might clear some pesky regulations that stand in the way of his company SpaceX. But reaching Mars will also be an immensely capital-intensive, manpower-thirsty project for government and private industry alike.

Space watchers expect a Musk-powered Trump administration to put a renewed emphasis on the Artemis program, the Trump-launched NASA project meant to return humans to the moon by 2026.

Todd Harrison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, called the Artemis landing a “legacy thing” for the former president, and said that while few expect a new moon landing to happen in 2026, he believes it could before Trump’s second term ends.

That could involve vastly increasing the number of U.S. rocket launches, and maybe even taking the first official steps toward landing a human on Mars.

The vehicle NASA plans to use is the Starship HLS (Human Landing System), built by Musk’s SpaceX. So the entanglement of Musk’s goals with Washington’s plans for manned space travel is nearly total.

In the short term, observers expect a Musk-driven Trump administration to chase some decidedly more earthbound goals — ones that make Musk’s life easier, and perhaps funnel even more money to his companies.

Harrison said that big regulatory and staffing changes are likely coming to the Federal Aviation Administration, with which Musk has often feuded over its enforcement of safety and permitting rules for his rocket launches.

But he also warned that if Musk really does want to hit his longer-term targets, he and his cost-cutting partner Vivek Ramaswamy should use a scalpel, not a sledgehammer, when it comes to downsizing government. Not only could budget cuts and en masse firings impact an already understaffed Artemis program, delaying the Trump administration’s lunar ambitions, but cuts to agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency could even further hold up the review process that’s already vexed Musk’s SpaceX.

A thick web of conflicts of interest binds all of this: Musk’s business empire contracts extensively with government. Washington funnels $15.4 billion annually to SpaceX alone. In engineer’s parlance, however, these entanglements might be a feature and not a bug for Musk: Washington is paying him to achieve his life’s ambition, and get vastly richer in the process.

In September Musk said that uncrewed missions to Mars could launch as soon as 2026, but any kind of permanent human presence there will require an even more expensive, capital-intensive rocket-building project than the company has already undertaken. He expects SpaceX to get there, proclaiming in September the “goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years.”

James Pethokoukis , another AEI researcher and author of the book “The Conservative Futurist,” suggested to DFD the massive amounts of financing required means "SpaceX needs a vibrant satellite business to help finance these missions” — referring to Starlink, the company’s fast-growing satellite internet division. (He also added that he's keeping an eye on the upcoming Earth-to-Mars launch window in 2026 for even the first hints of NASA and SpaceX’s progress and commitment to Mars missions.)

Starlink currently receives some subsidies from the government, but POLITICO’s John Hendel reported in October that it could be in line for billions more under a more favorable Republican-led Federal Communications Commission, possibly headed by Musk ally and current senior Republican Commissioner Brendan Carr.

If Trump and Musk get the ball rolling toward Mars, much, much more activity will have to follow: “You’re going to have to send out numerous Starship-size ships, with supplies and a nuclear reactor, and remotely land and activate them, and show that this is all working before you actually send humans,” AEI’s Harrison said. “There are a lot of launches, a lot of missions, a lot of risks before you even get to the point of sending humans on their way.”

Even still, Harrison said he believes Musk will push for NASA to start a funded program with the goal of a Mars landing, and that touchdown could even happen as soon as the 2030s. If the U.S. even comes close, the partnership between Trump and Musk could go down as shaking things up off-planet just as much as they have on it.

 

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startup carveouts

A group of artificial intelligence experts advised the European Union that startups should be given “simplified ways” to comply with the bloc’s AI Act.

POLITICO’s Pieter Haeck reported today for Pro subscribers on a set of draft rules written by 13 AI researchers and policymakers, including “godfather of AI” Yoshua Bengio, that suggests smaller firms should be given a break when complying with the Act.

“Rapid technological change may require agile regulatory development and modification. Therefore, a balance should be struck between concrete requirements and flexibility to adapt and update rules as technology and industry develops,” the authors wrote in the draft.

The document echoes comments made Wednesday by Henna Virkkunen in her confirmation hearings to become the EU’s tech chief. Virkkunen said she wants “Europe to become an AI continent,” and suggested a focus for the bloc on becoming an “enabler” for AI startups.

Only 8 percent of European companies use AI, a recent European Commission study found.

 

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a slightly less special relationship

Trump’s return to power could mean a shrinking footprint for the United Kingdom’s AI Safety Institute.

That’s because a Trump White House could be more guarded about letting the institute test U.S.-made powerful AI models, POLITICO’s Morning Tech U.K. reports. The Trump administration could also pull the plug on a planned U.S. AI Safety Institute, making its U.K. counterpart’s work more difficult.

“I suspect the new administration is likely to push back against attempts by other jurisdictions to compel access to U.S. technology or intellectual property. That includes any mandatory evaluation or disclosure requirements tabled by the U.K. government,” Ben Brooks, a fellow at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center For Internet & Society, told MT U.K.

The U.K.’s AI Safety Institute has conducted voluntary tests on powerful models from companies like Anthropic, whose CEO Jack Clark said the country “leads the world” in safety testing. But POLITICO reported earlier this year that many Big Tech companies are still reticent to play ball. British AI watchers now worry that a plan from the Labour party to compel American companies to give the U.K. institute access will be harder to pass and enforce.

One industry insider noted, as the U.K. plans its own ambitious AI legislation to match the EU’s: “I would be nervous drafting a bill regulating the biggest American companies in this environment.”

 

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