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By PHELIM KINE
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at possible discord in the China policy of the incoming Trump administration, examine Taiwan's efforts to prepare for Trump and parse how the president-elect's latest China tariff threat may affect counternarcotics cooperation. And we profile a book that argues that the roots of Chinese cultural diplomacy with the U.S. grew from the motto "learning barbarian technology in order to control barbarians."
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
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President-elect Donald Trump's choice of Alex Wong for deputy national security adviser has set the stage for possible infighting over China in the new administration.
Asia expertise. Wong was deputy assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the first Trump administration and served as deputy special representative for North Korea. Wong has "real experience on China … and he's been involved directly in negotiations with the North Koreans — what's not to like?" said Dennis Wilder, former National Security Council director for China under the George W. Bush administration.
House of hawks. Wong joins other key Cabinet appointees with strong China hawk credentials, namely Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser, conservative commentator and television host Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for secretary of State. Waltz said he was "thrilled" by Wong's appointment and said he'd have an "essential role" on the NSC in an X post last week. Wong shares with Waltz and Rubio a perception of China as a serious national security threat. Tensions with Beijing raise the risk of "possible conflict that we have not seen since the end of World War II," Wong wrote in an essay last year.
Strategy clash. Wong has backed multilateral approaches to China built on support for and coordination with countries that share U.S. security concerns. Waltz and Rubio by comparison favor more unilateral approaches — with an emphasis on such allies doing more for their own defense — while Trump has tended to pursue foreign policy as business negotiations geared to benefit the U.S.
Other senior administration officials "are going to be pursuing much more narrow ends — the knives will be out," said Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Washington-based Hudson Institute think tank where Wong served as senior fellow after the end of the first Trump administration.
Deal breakers. Alignment among Rubio, Waltz and Wong on a China policy that balances America's interests with those of partners and allies that support U.S. interests could prompt Trump to rethink his bargaining approach to statecraft.
"A strong National Security Council, including a deputy national security adviser who takes the China challenge seriously, wasn't a given for the Trump administration," said Rush Doshi, former National Security Council deputy senior director for China and Taiwan in the Biden administration. As a result, Doshi says, "competitive approaches could win out over transactional ones."
Test of teamwork. A balance of those senior administration officials' preferred approach to China could avert the risk of an incoherent China policy. We may instead see "a division of labor, where Alex Wong works with the allies to get them on board with a highly confrontational policy that Waltz and Rubio are shaping," said Jake Werner of the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute think tank.
Taiwan tackles Trump's defense doubts
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Taiwan is messaging Trump that it has heard his critique of the island's defense posture and it's taking steps to address it.
Deal ready. The self-governing island's Defense Ministry announced last week that it will spend at least $2.2 billion on American-supplied arms in 2025 after Trump takes office. And it’s open to suggestions. "We welcome advice from all sides, with the most important thing being how to boost self-defence capacity,” said a senior Taiwan security official earlier this month in Taipei per Reuters.
That comes after Trump said in July that the island should pay for U.S. protection from Beijing and expressed doubts about the feasibility of defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.
Down payment. Taipei's early commitment to buy more weapons — on top of the billions of dollars in such purchases Taipei has made over the past couple of years — looks like a signal of intent that the island will do whatever it can on its own to deter Chinese aggression.
The Taiwanese are "willing to discuss whatever concerns Trump might have … and they’ve already gotten the message that they need to increase defense spending and do a lot more to prepare for their own defense," said Kharis Templeman, an expert on U.S.-Taiwan relations at the Hoover Institution public policy think tank at Stanford University.
Arms absorption challenge. Still, there are doubts that Taiwan has the capacity to absorb and integrate the huge number of weapons systems it has already bought and begun to receive after long delays. Those include Javelin anti-tank missiles, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. And Taipei wants to add F-35 fighter jets, Patriot missiles and the Aegis destroyer to that roster, per the Financial Times earlier this month.
Those weapons pack an expensive punch, but require time and training to integrate effectively into the island's armed forces. Taiwan needs to "stitch all of that together and make sure that it’s effective and usable if or when the balloon goes up," said Lauren Dickey, former acting director for Taiwan at the Pentagon. That means less emphasis on "flashy systems" and more on the "command and control pieces — like the software that gets things talking to one another," Dickey added.
Manpower deficit. And the island also has military preparedness challenges that even the best U.S. weaponry can't remedy. "Taiwan is not getting enough recruits into the military — selling new systems that require additional manpower does not translate into defense capabilities," said Tony Hu, a former senior Taiwan country director at the Pentagon.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— LAWMAKERS: HONG KONG BANKS A THREAT: Lawmakers want the Treasury Department to reassess banking ties with Hong Kong due its role as a "critical player" in China's "deepening authoritarian axis." The territory's banking sector's "facilitation of money laundering and sanctions evasion" requires a rethink "of longstanding U.S. policy toward Hong Kong, particularly its financial and financial sector," Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on China and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), the committee's ranking member, said in a letter released Monday.
The lawmakers have requested a briefing from Treasury on measures "to address these risks."
Hong Kong's government came out swinging in response. The allegations in the letter are "malicious slander" and constitute "a crude and reprehensible attempt to spread lies and misinformation about Hong Kong for personal political gain," the territory's authorities said in a statement Tuesday.
— SEN. MERKLEY'S THREE DAYS IN TAIWAN: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) ends a three-day congressional delegation visit to Taiwan on Wednesday. Merkley — co-chair of the Congressional Executive Commission on China — aimed to spend that time meeting with "senior Taiwan leaders and other counterparts to discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations, regional security, trade and investment, and other significant issues of mutual interest," the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taipei said in a statement Monday. Merkley's agenda included a meeting with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and dinner with the Foreign Minister Lin Chia-Lung, the island's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
— DOJ BUSTS ANOTHER CHINESE GOVT SPY: A Florida court imposed a two-year prison term and a $250,000 fine on a U.S. citizen on Monday who worked as a "cooperative contact" for China's Ministry of State Security. Ping Li provided that agency with information "concerning Chinese dissidents and pro-democracy advocates, members of the Falun Gong religious movement, and U.S.-based non-governmental organizations," since 2012, according to a Department of Justice statement on Monday. Li's conviction follows that of John Chen whom a Los Angeles court sentenced to 20 months behind bars last week for conspiring to illegally strip the Shen Yun Performing Arts Center, a Falun Gong entity, of its tax-exempt status.
Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu responded to a question about the convictions by calling Falun Gong an "anti-social evil cult" and said China "always upholds the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs." Meanwhile Shen Yun has other problems — one of its former performers filed a lawsuit against the group in Federal District Court in White Plains, N.Y., on Monday accusing it of being a "forced labor enterprise" per the New York Times.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— SWEDEN'S STANDOFF WITH SUSPICIOUS CHINESE SHIP: Swedish authorities want to have a chat with the crew of a Chinese cargo ship suspected of involvement in the sabotage of undersea telecommunication cables in the North Atlantic. "We have had contact with the ship and contact with China and said that we want the ship to move towards Swedish waters," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Tuesday, per the Financial Times. Sweden — along with Finland and Denmark — wants its investigators to board the Yi Peng 3 to determine what the ship has been up to. "China maintains communication with relevant parties, including Denmark, through diplomatic channels" about the ship, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Tuesday.
— EU BACKPEDALS ON CHINA INVESTMENT SCREENING: European Union member countries want to gut a list of critical technologies that would be subject to foreign direct investment screening, three EU diplomats told POLITICO, in a move that could make it easier for them to fall into the hands of unfriendly powers like China.
According to a compromise text prepared by Hungary, which currently chairs the intergovernmental arm of the EU, the list no longer includes semiconductors, artificial intelligence or other strategic technologies that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to be subject to bloc-wide scrutiny. POLITICO's Camille Gijs has the full story here.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— G7 SLAMS CHINA'S SUPPORT FOR RUSSIA: Foreign ministers for the G7 grouping of countries urged Beijing to curtail its support for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine.
China is "decisively enabling Russia to maintain its illegal war in Ukraine and to reconstitute its armed forces" in areas including aerial attack drones and weapons components, the foreign ministers of the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany and Japan said in a statement Tuesday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned in a press briefing on the margins of the G7 ministers' meeting in Italy that China's unwillingness to push North Korea to pull back troops supporting Russia's Ukraine war risks pushing Japan and South Korea to significantly increase their defense capacity in ways "China will not like."
— REPORT: CHINA'S 'PERSUASIVE TECHNOLOGIES' THREAT: Beijing may exploit a new generation of neurotechnology, ambient technologies and generative artificial intelligence to manipulate public opinion, the nonprofit research organization the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said in a report Tuesday. Those "emerging persuasive technologies" could enable the Chinese government and other "malign actors … to sway opinions and actions without the conscious autonomy of users," the report said. Chinese firms including Goertek, Midu and Suishi are already deploying such technologies for "China's propaganda, military and public‑security agencies," the report said.
TRANSLATING TRUMP'S LATEST TARIFF THREAT
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— TARIFF PUTS ANTI-DRUG COOPERATION AT RISK: Drug policy experts and a former U.S. official who talk to Chinese officials are warning that President-elect Trump's pledge to impose a new tariff on Chinese goods is likely to curtail existing cooperation with Beijing on counternarcotics.
One reason Trump' gave for his pledge to tack an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports was to curb China's role in contributing to the illegal flow of fentanyl into the U.S. from Mexico.
It's unclear if Trump's announcement is a promise or a bombastic opening negotiating position aimed to prod Beijing to make concessions on trade. But if he follows through on that threat, it could backfire, prompting China to suspend participation in a joint Counternarcotics Working Group established in January to stem the flow of precursor chemicals from China to Mexican cartels that process them into fentanyl.
"Chinese government officials have told me that [new tariffs] would derail the China-U.S. law enforcement cooperation that was built up over the past several months," said Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and an expert on China's role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis.
Beijing is already hinting that Trump's threatened tariff puts cooperative efforts in jeopardy more broadly. Washington shouldn't "take China's goodwill for granted" and threaten "hard-won positive dynamics," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement Tuesday in response to the tariff threat.
That's likely more than just rhetoric. Beijing ending counternarcotics cooperation "is certainly a risk," said Daniel Russel, a former senior Asia hand in the Obama administration. China's default, he added, "usually is 'if you want our help, then you can’t attack us.'"
Beijing has a track record of responding to U.S. government actions or policies by curtailing cooperation in key areas. China's Foreign Ministry suspended counternarcotics cooperation — along with a number of military-to-military dialogues — in reprisal for then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit in 2022.
President Joe Biden has highlighted the counternarcotics cooperation as a centerpiece success of his administration's two-year campaign of engagement with China aimed to stabilize bilateral ties. That cooperation has contributed to "overdose deaths … coming down for the first time in five years," Biden said earlier this month.
The Chinese embassy dismissed Trump's allegations that it is contributing to the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic. "The idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into the United States runs completely counter to facts and reality… no one will win a trade war or a tariff war," said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu.
Both Beijing and Washington credit the U.S.-PRC Counternarcotics Working Group with reducing the flow of precursor chemicals from China to Mexican cartels. The group has produced information "used to track and intercept illegal drugs and their precursors" and are working on "closing loopholes" that allow drug traffickers to launder money," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in April.
The Chinese government has praised the group for enabling "extensive and in-depth counternarcotics cooperation."
Still, Beijing may take a wait-and-see calibrated response to any new tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration. Doing so may render China a diplomatic win in its efforts to woo developing countries into trade and economic relations that favor Beijing over the U.S.
"It gives them the moral high road, because then they look like the victim," of U.S. trade policy, said Jonathan Czin, a China expert and former member of the CIA's Senior Analytic Service, at a Brookings Institution briefing Tuesday.
HEADLINES
CNN: China is armed and ready for trade war 2.0 with Donald Trump
Washington Post: China looks to step into global vacuum as Trump vows to pull U.S. back
The Sunday Times: West facing greatest peril since Second World War, says ex-general
The City: They escaped Chinese government repression. Now they're imploring Trump to let them stay in America
HEADS UP
— PRESIDENT LAI'S EXCELLENT PACIFIC ISLAND ADVENTURE: Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te will make a seven-day diplomatic junket to Pacific island diplomatic allies Palau, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands starting Saturday, his office said in a statement. Lai's agenda includes bolstering the Pacific island countries' "economic resilience" and — vital given Taiwan's diplomatic isolation — fostering "sustainable diplomatic ties." Brace for howls of performative rage from Beijing as Lai makes an inevitable transit stop in either or both Hawaii and Guam on his flights to-and-from Taipei.
One Book, Three Questions
Courtesy of the National Gallery of Art Archives |
The Book: In Search of Admiration and Respect: Chinese Cultural Diplomacy in the United States, 1875-1974
The Author: Yanqiu Zheng is associate director of Asia Pacific Programs at St. Lawrence University’s Center for International and Intercultural Studies
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
Modern China's engagement with the outside world was much more than the pursuit of wealth and power. It was also the ongoing efforts by Chinese of different political persuasions to seek admiration and respect from the established Western powers when China's international image was often negative and dominated by foreigners.
Instead of simply a short-term policy tool, Chinese cultural diplomacy was intimately tied to a collective soul-searching in a new world order where China was no longer the presumed center of civilization but had to earn diplomatic recognition and cultural respect.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
That a Chinese diplomat posted to Western Europe in the late 1870s was already considering the value of establishing "Chinese academies" abroad in order to make foreign students "understand our subtleties." The diplomat came from a traditional scholar-official family but quickly realized the need for a totally different cultural order once he was stationed abroad.
Such early ideas on modern Chinese cultural diplomacy came in the middle of China's late 19th century's Self-Strengthening Movement, whose rallying cry was "learning barbarian technology in order to control barbarians."
How have American museums had "disproportionate power in setting the agenda" of global perceptions of Chinese culture?
The preference of American curators of Asian art at influential U.S. museums largely determined the selection of objects for the 1961-1962 touring exhibition of National Palace Museum collections from Taiwan. Although the Nationalist government in Taiwan preferred a more comprehensive display of Chinese art, American curators dismissed things not to their liking as "minor arts in purely Chinese taste."
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Camille Gijs and digital producers Emma Cordover and Giulia Poloni. Do you have tips? Email me at pkine@politico.com
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