BEIJING TAKES STOCK CHINA’S NEXT MOVE: As negotiators get in the weeds about the shape and scope of the new global finance deal, China’s role is in the spotlight. Beijing finds itself in an interesting position — the expected row-back by Donald Trump of his predecessor Joe Biden‘s climate policies leaves an open field for a new economic behemoth to fill — if it wants to. Power in numbers: China has a huge COP presence — its delegation is close to 1,000-strong, per the official attendee list. Queues of people lined up at the red-themed Chinese pavilion throughout the week to receive hand-crafted fans with their names written in hanzi characters. Tea was in plentiful supply. At issue: Negotiators face a conundrum. China was not included in the original list of developed countries drawn up by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change back in the 90s, meaning it didn’t technically qualify as a donor country. But given China’s rapid expansion since, many developed countries want this to change to widen the contributor base of the new climate finance targets. Timely reminder: New analysis by Carbon Brief found China’s historical emissions have caused more global warming than the 27 member countries of the EU combined (though interestingly, it finds China is unlikely to ever overtake the U.S. contribution to global warming). China is currently the world’s largest polluter, followed by the U.S. Beijing’s perspective: Chinese officials say Beijing is already contributing, and has provided nearly $25 billion for climate efforts in the so-called Global South since 2016. Developing countries are also increasingly dependent on Beijing for green energy investment as China flexes its geopolitical muscle, investing in renewable projects in Africa, for example. More on China’s climate diplomacy from the Wall Street Journal. Time to step up: “Yes, we need China to become more aggressive on their targets,” per Washington State Governor Jay Inslee. “They are making significant investments but they need to increase,” he said in response to a question from POLITICO, noting a need for China to address its strategy toward supply chains. Talk it out: Inslee also added that the best approach is to engage with Beijing directly, saying that he’s found “pointing figures hasn’t been as successful as showing them what we’re doing to give them confidence that they’re not alone … I want people to realize that if you act on climate you’re not alone, you’re with us.” Proceed with caution: This softly, softly approach has been evident in other ways. U.N. Climate Change boss Simon Stiell touted China’s investments in clean energy technology as a demonstration of “leading by example” at an event last week, as he urged Beijing to release a strong nationally determined contribution, or NDC. Spotted … POLITICO spies saw several high-profile figures, including the U.S. Department of Energy’s David Turk and Brad Crabtree and Germany’s Special Envoy for International Climate Action Jennifer Lee Morgan, in conversation with Chinese officials around the corridors on Tuesday. Members of the European Parliament’s environment committee also had a sit-down with Zhao Yingmin, China’s minister of ecology and environment. Could be worse: According to one diplomat here in Baku, there is a certain relief that China is engaging with the U.N.’s COP process, given it could have thrown its lot even further in with the BRICS group, where it is a key member. Laying the ground: As discussions go down to the wire, negotiators are trying to find a way of categorizing China’s contributions that will keep all parties happy. Stay tuned for some innovative language and calculations as negotiators try to work out the classic diplomatic fudge. THE TRUMP EFFECT IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN BAKU: With Donald Trump looming over proceedings in Azerbaijan, some of those here are looking for the silver lining. Belgian Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten told Playbook that Europe must now step up. “When I hear the newly elected president of the United States and the language he’s using, of course I’m very concerned. At the same time, we cannot just say we are worried, we have to take the lead. Specifically at the European Union level, we have to stay on course, we have to deliver our 2040 targets.” California’s Secretary for Environmental Protection Yana Garcia said subnational governments (like her own state’s) will continue to maintain green policies, regardless of what’s happening in Washington. California is “the fifth-largest economy in the world. During the last Trump administration, we stepped up in the absence of the Paris Agreement … we are committed to carbon neutrality by 2035. What we’ve seen in California between 2020 and 2022 is a reduction of 20 percent of our GHG emissions and a 78 percent increase in GDP in the state. We’ve proved that we can lead.” Geoffrey Pyatt, assistant secretary at the State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources, told POLITICO’s Sara Schonhardt that the U.S. is unlikely to walk away from clean energy. The reason? It wouldn’t be in its interests to do so. “For 100 years, the U.S. was the global leader in oil and gas because our companies were everywhere,” said Pyatt. “Now, the energy trade is shifting, and we would be crazy not to want to have the same kind of leading role in that green energy future.” AROUND THE BLUE ZONE FORECAST: High of 13C/56F; low of 8C/47F. HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS: Azeri authorities have ignored requests by members of the European Parliament to meet political prisoners in Baku during COP. “It is regrettable that Azerbaijan has not responded to our request for a meeting with Nargiz Absalamova, Gubad Ibadoghlu and Anar Mammadli,” Austrian MEP Lena Schilling said, adding that the release of the political prisoners should remain on the international agenda after Baku. Disruptive presence: One attendee who is none too happy at his treatment by the Azeri authorities is U.S. Congressman Frank Pallone. The New Jersey representative, who co-chairs the congressional caucus on Armenia issues, accused the Azerbaijan government of sponsoring protests against him at the COP venue and his hotel, and said he “avoided physical harm” only thanks to the State Department. G20 FALLOUT: As delegates dissected the news from Rio, where G20 leaders agreed a statement in the wee hours, the overall feeling was that it could be worse. Groups like 350.org; Climate Group and GSCC welcomed the reaffirmation of the UAE consensus, with its commitment to tripling global renewables and doubling energy efficiency. But they blasted the omission of any mention of the transition away from fossil fuels. More from Rio here. STRUTTING ITS STUFF: As the world marks 1,000 days since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is hosting an event showing its contribution to “strengthening food security” with the Vernadsky Foundation this evening. Given the impact its invasion of its neighbor has had on the world’s grain supply, it will be interesting to see how Moscow will spin this one. SEEN AND HEARD THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS: Baku Stadium is a hive of activity this week as delegates, NGOs and journalists thread through the corridors to attend meetings, press conferences and events with decision-makers. Everywhere they go, they’ll hear “Stay to the right!” from the volunteers stationed around the stadium. But much of the action is taking place in the warren of private delegation rooms on the first floor. A relative oasis of calm, each country and organization has designated rooms where negotiators huddle behind closed doors. The sterile white offices also act as a peculiar leveler and microcosm of the kind of international cooperation that’s supposed to happen at COP — a place where you can find the office of the International Atomic Agency next door to Senegal, with the UAE setting up shop across from Italy. WATER BOTTLE UPDATE: They’re the hottest commodity in town, but Global Playbook can reveal where to snag an extra COP29 water bottle — for a price. The COP29 store in the Green Zone is selling a slightly darker green branded version for 44 manat (around €24/$26). HOT REAL ESTATE: The logistics of this year’s COP were better than expected, but there’s one thing that’s in short supply: chairs. Delegates and journalists have been spreading across the floor of the media centers and corridors to eat lunch, as beady-eyed attendees snag the few comfy chairs. VEGGIE OPTIONS: Know your customer. That mantra is key to any successful business, but it seems to have been lost on the Azeri organizers, who were forced to issue an update to delegates highlighting vegetarian and vegan options available at Baku Stadium. Take your pick: The climate clientele at this gathering means a higher percentage of environmentally conscious eaters to keep happy. Apart from the “De Rama” restaurant in the food court and the odd falafel wrap and overpriced salad, there are slim pickings (though Playbook did snag a beetroot and bean salad at the Sirr Sirniyyat counter in the Fork and Food Pavilion). AGENDA All times are local. Full agenda here. — High-Level Opening on Multilevel and Multisectoral Climate Action at COP29; Plenary, Caspian Room; 9 a.m. — AIM For Climate Event; Speakers include U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and UAE Climate and Environment Minister Amna bint Abdullah Al Dahak; 9 a.m. — AIM For Climate Event; Baku Marriott Boulevard Hotel; 9 a.m. — High-Level Segment continues; Plenary Hall Nizami; 10 a.m. — Enhancing Inclusive Climate Action: Alliance for Gender-Responsive Climate Finance; UAE Pavilion; 10 a.m. — From the G7 to the G20: Achievements and ambitions on climate change and human mobility; hosted by Italy and the International Organization for Migration; IOM Pavilion; 10 a.m. — Urban climate and human health; Thailand Pavilion; 10 a.m. — Unlocking Green Steel and Cement through Public Procurement;” Speakers include Brenda Mallory, chair of the Council on Environmental Quality, and Federal Chief Sustainability Officer Andrew Mayock; U.S. Center; Delegations’ Pavilions; 10:15 a.m. — Plenary’s Stocktake; Plenary Hall Caspian; 10:30 a.m. — High Level Roundtable on Greening Urban Transport; Mugham Room; 11 a.m. — Sustainable Skies: Charting the course for aviation fuel in emerging markets; We Mean Business Coalition Pavilion; 12 p.m. — High Level Roundtable on Nature, Health and Agriculture in Cities; Hirkan Room; 1 p.m. — Unlocking the power of the sun: scaling solar thermal heating and cooling for energy transition; ISA Pavilion, The Solar Hub; 1:30 p.m. — European Commission and European Parliament press conference; Press Conference Room Karabakh; 2 p.m. — Boosting SME climate action; Shirvan Room; 4 p.m. — Russian Federation, The Vernadsky Foundation: Russia’s Contribution to Strengthening Food Security at Global Level; Side Room 7; 4:45 p.m. THANKS TO: Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt, Zack Colman and Karl Mathiesen. Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.
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