Scott Bessent, they're coming for you

Presented by American Chemistry Council: The preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump's presidential transition.
Nov 12, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO'S West Wing Playbook: Transition of Power

By Gavin Bade, Sam Sutton, Eli Stokols, Lauren Egan and Ben Johansen

Presented by American Chemistry Council

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump’s transition. POLITICO Pro subscribers receive a version of this newsletter first.

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The first days of DONALD TRUMP’s transition have, from most outward appearances, gone smoothly: Names have rolled out far ahead of his 2016 pace without the reality show theatrics that defined that windup.

Enter: the economic wannabes.

The contest for top economic posts like secretaries of Treasury and Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative is downright chaotic — pointing to deep policy disputes in the Trump world over key elements of the president-elect’s economic agenda, from tariffs to his approach to China.

If the last few days are an indication, the infighting has only just started.

Trump economic advisers on Tuesday convened at Mar-a-Lago, where pro-tariff figures pushed back against the frontrunner for Treasury secretary, SCOTT BESSENT, who they view as insufficiently supportive of the tariff proposals Trump repeatedly pledged on the trail — a 20 percent across-the-board tariff and a 60 percent tariff or more on China, according to a person familiar with Cabinet-level transition discussions, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“Some inner circle Trump loyalists are concerned about Bessent’s lukewarm support for tariffs, which is a pillar of Trump’s policy proposals,” the person said.

The battle over the personnel who will govern economic policies shows that despite Trump’s repeated tariff pledges on the campaign trail, the ultimate shape of his trade and broader economic policy is still being defined. Trump’s coming decisions, particularly on Treasury, will give the strongest indication yet on whether he’s set to follow through on his most protectionist impulses or hew closer to Wall Street, which has long hoped that tariffs would largely be used as negotiating leverage and wouldn’t be applied as aggressively as he’s vowed.

Protectionists note that Bessent has barely mentioned tariffs in his multiple cable media interviews, a Wall Street Journal op-ed and a lengthy appearance on STEVE BANNON’s War Room. Compare that to his rivals, such as transition co-chair HOWARD LUTNICK, who has fallen over himself to advocate for tariffs in cable news appearances, and ROBERT LIGHTHIZER, the pugnacious former trade chief whose protectionist credentials are unquestioned.

The conflict could also allow other candidates to slide in with less resistance. JAY CLAYTON , Trump’s former SEC Chair who’s now a partner at the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell and independent board chair at Apollo Global Management, is a low-drama personality. And he’s well liked by bankers and asset managers who want to see a familiar person atop the Treasury.

GARY COHN , the former Goldman Sachs executive who later served on Trump’s National Economic Council, has been in the rumor mill as a contender for a top econ role. And there might be dark horse candidates waiting in the wings, like Apollo Global Management CEO MARC ROWAN, according to two people close to the transition. (An Apollo spokesperson declined to comment.) Bloomberg has reported that STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN , the leader of Blackstone Group and one of Trump’s top allies in the financial services world, might also be in the running.

Outside of the Mar-a-Lago meetings, much of the jockeying has taken place in the press. It began last week, when the Financial Times reported that Trump had asked Lighthizer to return for a second spell at USTR.

That would be less of an honor than a shun. Lighthizer has been a key economic adviser for Trump throughout the campaign, not just on trade but domestic economic topics as well. And to continue that influence, he wants a bigger role this time around — Treasury, Commerce or a White House economic adviser post, according to four former Trump administration officials . Shoving him back to USTR would indicate that his rabidly protectionist agenda is on the wane in the White House. Not to mention that it would stall the ascension of his team — people like his former chief of staff, JAMIESON GREER, who has had his eye on the USTR post for himself.

But it doesn’t appear to be true — at least not yet. Just after the FT article went up, a person familiar with the transition conversations phoned us to say the article was “complete bullshit,” — but, as the personnel contest goes, requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. While Trump could still ask Lighthizer to return to USTR, the people said, there’s no guarantee Lighthizer would accept it.

Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.

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POTUS PUZZLER

Why was BILL CLINTON’s transition particularly messy?

(Answer at bottom.)

Pro Exclusive

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Tsunami warning”: Former U.S. ambassador tells Canada to prepare for impact, via our MICKEY DJURIC

The reporting in this section is exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2024 transition and beyond, visit politicopro.com.

Heads up, we're all transition all the time over on our live blog: Inside Congress Live: Transition of Power. Bookmark politico.com/transition to keep up with us.

 

The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now.

 
 
THE BUREAUCRATS

NEW TRACKER ALERT: Trump’s already selected his chief of staff, EPA administrator, ambassador to the U.N., and he’s expected to announce Sen. MARCO RUBIO as his secretary of State shortly. We’re tracking all the Cabinet announcements in this handy interactive. Bookmark, refresh, enjoy.

THE DOG DIDN'T SLOW HER DOWN: Trump has reportedly selected South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM as his next Homeland Security secretary, CNN's KAITLAN COLLINS scooped early this morning, according to two people familiar with the selection. Her pick — along with STEPHEN MILLER and TOM HOMAN — signals the president-elect is serious about his promise to follow through on his immigration pledges.

THE HUCKABEE-TRUMP CONNECT: Trump on Tuesday announced he will nominate former Arkansas Gov. MIKE HUCKABEE — who’s also the father of former Trump press secretary and current Arkansas Gov. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS — to be the ambassador to Israel, our ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and MIA McCARTHY report.

“Mike has been a great public servant, Governor and Leader in Faith for many years,” Trump said in a statement. “He loves Israel, and the people of Israel, and likewise, the people of Israel love him.”

BEEFING UP THE DEPUTIES: On top of Stephen Miller, Trump is expected to announce three more close allies as White House deputy chiefs of staff, WaPo’s JOSH DAWSEY reports:JAMES BLAIR, TAYLOR BUDOWICH and DAN SCAVINO. All four were senior advisers on the campaign, and Scavino is a longtime top social media aide and confidante to the president-elect.

IN THE “FREY” TO REGULATE THE “HERBS”: SARAH FREY, founder of Frey Farms, and longtime Trump ally CHARLES HERBSTER are being floated for Agriculture secretary, our MEREDITH LEE HILL and DANIEL LIPPMAN report. Both are GOP donors and outsiders to the federal government.

Trump allies have specifically raised Frey as someone who can appeal to both the mainstream conservative-leaning agriculture sector and supporters of ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s “Make America Healthy Again” push. However, concerns remain on Capitol Hill about her ability to lead the department, given her lack of public sector experience and views on traditional agriculture.

OVER AT MAR-A-LAGO: This weekend at his West Palm Beach club, Trump was zipping around with ELON MUSK on a golf cart, stopping occasionally to introduce him to club members. Trump took the tech billionaire to the gift shop to look at hats before dining alfresco with MELANIA TRUMP, our MERIDITH McGRAW and NATALIE ALLISON report.

Howard Lutnick was spotted making his way through the club’s lobby with a stack of paper and was later seen having lunch with Trump and his 17-year-old granddaughter KAI TRUMP at the golf club.

Also spotted was incoming chief of staff SUSIE WILES and honorary transition co-chairs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and TULSI GABBARD. Unlike Trump’s first transition, when press got a live look at VIPs being paraded through the Trump Tower lobby for meetings, the comings and goings are now being recorded on social media and in conversations with reporters.

WHAT MIKE ROGERS DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: After Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) and Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) were both plucked for Cabinet spots in the Trump administration, House GOP leadership is urging the president-elect not to select any more sitting Republicans for his administration, our JORDAIN CARNEY and OLIVIA BEAVERS report. Any more departures could jeopardize the GOP’s House majority — which they haven’t yet clinched but are expected to with a narrow margin.

“President Trump and I have talked about this multiple times a day for the last several days. … I don’t expect that we will have more members leaving,” Speaker MIKE JOHNSON told reporters Tuesday, adding that Trump “fully understands and appreciates the math here.”

Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE said he hopes that Trump will pick “no more for a little while,” or at least until there are special elections to fill Waltz’s and Stefanik’s seats.

WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN? You can bet on anything these days. West Wing Playbook is setting the odds for key Trump administration jobs. Based on reporting and vibes, here are our lines for Treasury secretary, with help from Gavin.

Betting odds of Trump's Treasury Secretary

Agenda Setting

KISSING THE RING: Johnson also said Tuesday it would be largely up to the president-elect to choose how to handle the Dec. 20 government shutdown deadline, our JENNIFER SCHOLTES and Jordain Carney report.

The speaker said he “can make a case for a number of different options that are on the table” to keep cash flowing to federal agencies. The two obvious choices: Punting the deadline into Trump’s second term or striking a full bipartisan deal that lasts through next September, when the current fiscal year ends.

“Again, this is a consensus-building exercise, as always,” Johnson told reporters. “The president's preference on that will carry a lot of weight obviously.”

HE’S A MAN WITH CONFIDENCE: Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL went viral after an answer to our VICTORIA GUIDA’s question about whether he would leave if Trump asked him to. “No,” he succinctly replied.

As Victoria writes in a column this morning, there are two reasons Powell was able to give such a strikingly confident response.

For one, the law says that Fed board members can only be removed “for cause,” not just policy disagreements. But also: The stock market has his back. In December 2018, Trump considered firing Powell after the central bank raised interest rates. The markets did not like this prospect, and it led to one of the worst pre-pandemic days for stocks during the Trump administration.

The president-elect, likely not eager for a repeat of that drop, has recently suggested he would let Powell serve out his current term, which ends in May 2026.

 

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What We're Reading

Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals (WSJ’s Vivian Salama, Nancy A. Youssef and Lara Seligman)

The big takeaways from Trump’s whirlwind round of personnel announcements (POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Meredith Lee Hill)

Kennedy’s FDA Wish List: Raw Milk, Stem Cells, Heavy Metals (NYT’s Christina Jewett)

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

The entire Clinton transition is “often cited as an example of what not to do,” RICHARD SKINNER wrote for Vox in 2016. For one, it took Clinton until mid-December to pick a chief of staff. He ultimately chose THOMAS McLARTY, a childhood friend with no Washington experience who would leave in the second year of the administration.

Transition staffers operated out of both Washington and Little Rock, Arkansas, with all final decisions made in Clinton’s home state, The New Republic wrote. On top of the geographical divide, there was an ideological split between liberals and centrists on the team. Meetings ran too long and time was wasted.

Both Skinner and JOHN BURKE, the author of Presidential Transitions: From Politics to Practice, stressed that Clinton focused his time and energy too much on Cabinet appointments, neglecting important White House personnel decisions.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Jennifer Haberkorn and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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