Team Canada, assemble

Nov 06, 2024

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Mickey Djuric and Sue Allan

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In today's edition:

→ Get ready for Trump 2.0.

→ Scenes from the Met as results rolled in.

→ Conservatives want to circle back with Canada’s NYC envoy.

DRIVING THE DAY

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump.

"There’s never been anything like this in this country," Donald Trump told his supporters in the early hours of the morning. | Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

BUCKLE UP — Team Canada, assemble. Uncertainty lies ahead.

DONALD TRUMP is back, following a string of victories in key swing states that appeared too close to call before Election Day.

Fox News was the first major network to call the race in his favor.

In the wee hours of the morning, Trump declared victory in front of supporters gathered for a watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida.

→ Watch: Trump’s speech, in 180 seconds.

The former president carried North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
He holds leads in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan.

"The Blue Wall is collapsing," POLITICO's JESSICA PIPER wrote at 2:12 a.m.

— Stick a fork in it: POLITICO's NATALIE ALLISON and MYAH WARD confirmed the results at 5:34 a.m.:"Trump prevailed through a 34-count felony conviction, 2 assassination attempts and bipartisan backlash to return to power."

— Track record: For the first time in three attempts, Trump is likely to win the nationwide popular vote in a presidential election.

— Across the board: Republicans won back control of the Senate and were on track to maintain a majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

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Talk of the town

U.S. Ambassador David Cohen makes remarks at an election watch party in Ottawa.

U.S. Ambassador David Cohen makes remarks early in the night at the Met. | POLITICO Canada

WATCH PARTY — The vibe shift wasn't sudden. But an electoral map shaded heavily in red early, and persistently, set the tone at the Métropolitain in Ottawa last night.

The Met's Earnscliffe/POLITICO presidential election watch party carried the hallmarks of a gangbusters soirée: a healthy crop of early revelers; a selection of Cabinet ministers, MPs, senators, diplomats, staffers, lobbyists and journalists; a buzzy, schmoozy din.

The packed house awaited the results of America's quadrennial effort to elect a president.

The anxiety and adrenaline coursing through the crowd was palpable. This was a room lacking in DONALD TRUMP partisans. Many partygoers wary of Trump 2.0 visibly reflected the "nauseously optimistic" mood sweeping roughly half of the American electorate.

— Party trajectory: As the clock ticked past 9 p.m., and every network showed far more red than blue on their maps, the comforts of home wooed more and more distracted partiers.

The collective energy dimmed. People started doomscrolling.

The race for the White House wasn't yet a done deal, and no wave of disbelief matched the shock of 2016. But the writing was on the wall for KAMALA HARRIS.

Before midnight, the crowd had thinned.

— Voting Day 101: U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN opened the Met party before most polls had closed. Lots of smiling faces greeted him, their attention still mostly undivided.

Later, as the earliest returns came in from Pennsylvania, Cohen guided the crowd through his typical election day routine back home in Philadelphia. He would cast a ballot the moment polls open, once claiming a 20-year streak of being first in line at his polling place.

He would then visit a "curated" list of polling places where he talked to key contacts about "what they're hearing, what they're feeling, what they think turnout might be."

Next stop: Lunch at Philly's Famous 4th Street Delicatessen, where reporters snap photos of the city's high-profile Democrats. Cohen first attended in the 1970s.

→ Data geek: Cohen would eventually retreat to a room with between six and 10 computer screens. By that point, he'd prepared "a whole series of custom spreadsheets" with past results and turnout in a selection of Philly's wards and divisions.

Cohen claims to have soothed the JOE BIDEN campaign in 2020, when those spreadsheets projected DONALD TRUMP would lose his slim lead in Pennsylvania. Indeed, Biden won the state on his way to winning the White House.

Harris couldn't carry the state. Just past 2 a.m., CNN called Pennsylvania for Trump.

— What Cohen really thought: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Thanks to the Hatch Act that restricts his ability to dig into politics, the ambo didn't get into his feelings or hopes or fears last night.

One day, when Cohen is unencumbered by pesky diplomatic restraint, we have a feeling he'll have something more to say about Nov. 5, 2024. Stay tuned.

— Spotted at the Met: KATIE TELFORD, BRIAN CLOW, SUPRIYA DWIVEDI, ANDREW BEVAN, ANNE MCGRATH, AHMED HUSSEN, YA'ARA SAKS, LISA HEPFNER, VIVIANE LAPOINTE, GEORGE CHAHAL, CHARLES SOUSA, ROB OLIPHANT, JEAN YIP, GREG MCLEAN, MATT JENEROUX, DAVE EPP, ANDRÉANNE LAROUCHE, STÉPHANE BERGERON, COLIN DEACON, MOHAMED-IQBAL RAVALIA, IDDO MOED, YULIYA KOVALIV, TJORVEN BELLMANN and HLYNUR GUÐJÓNSSON.

ON THE HILL

Melanie Joly is pictured walking.

"We’ve dealt with the Trump administration," Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said ahead of election results. | Andreea Alexandru/AP

EVERYTHING IS FINE — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY stressed Tuesday that Canada has its bases covered.

“We’ve been preparing for this for months through our diplomatic network across the U.S., but also around the world,” she told reporters.

She added: “We’ve dealt with the Obama administration, we’ve dealt with the Trump administration, and we’ve dealt with the Biden administration.” So, yeah.

Her Cabinet colleagues also tried to sound upbeat while working to say very little as Americans went to the polls.

“Canada has really defined itself as the strategic partner to the United States,” Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE said. “We’ve moved from the good neighbor to the north to the strategic partner that they need in the 21st century, and I think it’s a good thing.”

— Background via ZI-ANN LUM: Trump destabilized Canada in 2016. Trudeau doesn’t want it to happen again.

Asked about DONALD TRUMP and climate targets on Tuesday, Energy and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON replied: “Climate change isn’t a political issue, or it shouldn’t be a political issue. It’s a science issue.”

On Trump and NATO’s 2 percent, Defense Minister BILL BLAIR offered this: “I have great confidence in the institutions of the United States, including our relationship with their state department and their military.”

For his part, JUSTIN TRUDEAU would only say — as he has through the campaign — that his job is to work with the president that Americans elect.

— While you were sleeping: Europe’s leaders raced to congratulate Trump.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be at the Liberal caucus meeting at 10 a.m. He also has plans to attend QP.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will also attend caucus.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released public-facing itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will start his day at the National Aboriginal Veterans Monument. At 9:30 a.m., he’ll attend the NDP caucus meeting. He will speak with reporters in the afternoon, just before heading to QP.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY has not yet shared today’s public agenda.

A message from Google Canada:

DULY NOTED

— Trade Minister MARY NG is in Toronto for a high-level event at the Canada-African Union Commission Trade Policy Dialogue.

— Energy and Natural Resources MInister JONATHAN WILKINSON is in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador. He'll participate in EnergyNL Student Energy Day, deliver remarks at the Mineral Resource Review 2024 Conference and Exhibition and make a tree-planting announcement.

10 a.m. Federal officials will convene a bilingual technical briefing for media representatives on "Canada’s priorities, objectives, and planned activities" for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) next week in Azerbaijan.

12:40 p.m. CAROLYN ROGERS, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak at the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto. Topic: Canada’s mortgage market.

12:40 p.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will be at Rogers Centre in Ottawa to take part in an armchair discussion with MIKE MUELLER, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada.

For your radar

MOVIN’ ON UP — Opposition parties want TOM CLARK back in the hot seat after newly released documents revealed that the Consul General to New York expressed concerns about his Manhattan official residence prior to Canada buying a C$9-million luxury condo.

— Key issues: The apartment was not accessible to wheelchair users. Plus, documents show the unit was in a co-op that placed “strict restriction” on the number and size of events.

— Deluxe apartment: Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY defended the condo purchase during her time at the House government operations and estimates committee on Tuesday. Joly told MPs that an official residence gives Canada a base from which to exert its influence, while connecting Canadians to a market she said is worth more than $6 trillion.

— Up in the big leagues: “If there’s a country in the world that knows the U.S., it’s Canada. Throughout the entire year I’ve been in contact with many foreign ministers around the world, many leaders and they all come to see us to understand what’s going on in the U.S.,” she said. “It gives us a form of leverage and influence around the world.”

— The latest: Conservatives introduced a motion during Tuesday’s gathering of what some MPs call “the mighty OGGO,” calling on Clark to appear for a second time in as many months.

It’s a scenario the governing Liberals hope to avoid.

“We are not trying to call a head of mission right after an election,” said Liberal MP MAJID JOWHARI , committee vice-chair. “We are trying to make sure we have all our ducks and all our key people lined up to be able to deal with the outcome of this election one way or another.”

— Stalling: Once it became evident that the New Democrats and Bloc Québécois supported the Tories’ motion at Tuesday’s gathering, Liberal MPs used long-winded takes to run out the clock.

— What’s next: Expect debate to resume when the committee meets Thursday.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: What Canada’s really worried about.

In case you missed it: Meet the Trump loyalists prepping for aggressive policy action on Day 1.

In other news for Pro readers:

— IRA danger level: Extreme.

— What Elon Musk wants from Washington.

— What a Republican Senate means for tech.

— Why business leaders are worried about JD Vance.

— 5 ways nations can counter Trump on climate.

MEDIA ROOM

— From CATHARINE TUNNEY of CBC News: Canadian linked to Russian influence campaign refuses to answer MPs' questions.

— How is climate change affecting teenagers? The New York Times begins with the story of 14-year-old LUCY CURRIE, whose family lost its home when fires swept through Jasper, Alberta.

— DAVID BEERS of The Tyee writes on the life of MONTE PAULSEN and his death in June by fentanyl overdose.

— “It is up to us to carry on where he left off,” TANYA TALAGA says of her friend MURRAY SINCLAIR, “a valiant soldier of conscience who led Canada to discover it actually had one.”

The Globe reports: A public funeral will be held in Winnipeg Sunday for Sinclair.

— “We might as well call it MAGA 2,” GILLIAN STEWARD writes in the Star of the Alberta United Conservative Party.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to retired Sens. KELVIN OGILVIE and RICHARD NEUFELD (80!), comms pro CATHERINE CLARK and journalists TERENCE CORCORAN and CAMERON RYAN.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Noted: Conservative MP ED FAST devoted time in the House Monday to his father, EDWARD E. FAST, who died Oct. 20 . “What animated my father were his deep Christian faith, his family and an intense interest in politics,” the MP told the House. “It was he who, 60 years ago, inspired my own career in politics.”

Farewells: Sen. JANE CORDY announced her retirement from the Senate several months before her 75th birthday. Cordy delivered her farewell address Tuesday.

During an exit interview from the Senate, RATNA OMIDVAR said she’s accepted a fellowship at the School of Public Policy at Toronto Metropolitan University. “Who knows? Maybe there’s another book in me,” she said.

Movers and shakers: ROBYN OSGOOD was just named CEO of McMillan Vantage … FRED DELOREY is now NorthStar Public Affairs' chair and chief strategy officer. SANDY SCHEMBRI is the firm's associate partner. SABRINA GROVER is now senior adviser.

Media mentions: LAURA OSMAN is joining The Logic’s Ottawa bureau as a reporter … KYLE DUGGAN joins The Canadian Press.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

4:15 p.m. Superintendent PETER ROUTLEDGE of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions will be at the Senate banking committee.

4:15 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee will take Bill C-282 through clause-by-clause consideration.

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee continues its work on Bill C-40.

4:15 p.m. The Senate social affairs committee takes Bill S-249 through clause-by-clause consideration.

4:30 p.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee continues its study of derelict and abandoned vessels.

4:30 p.m. The House environment committee picks up debate on a motion from ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN.

4:30 p.m. The House status of women committee continues its study of gender-based violence.

4:30 p.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the House public accounts committee as it continues to study ArriveCAN.

6:45 p.m. Sen. PIERRE J. DALPHOND will be at the Senate finance committee to discuss Bill S-264.

6:45 p.m. The Senate transport and communications committee continues its study of local services provided by CBC and Radio-Canada.

7 p.m. The House committee on Indigenous and northern affairs takes Bill C-61 through clause-by-clause study.

Behind closed doors: The House international trade committee will be at work on a couple of draft reports. The House natural resources committee will discuss Canada’s clean energy plans. The House heritage committee is working on its study on media. The Senate ethics committee is considering future business. The Senate Indigenous Peoples committee will work on a draft report.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer : How many American counties have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election dating to RONALD REAGAN's first win in 1980? One: Clallam County in Washington state.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, BRYAN LEBLANC, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, MARC LEBLANC, CAMERON RYAN, MALCOLM MCKAY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Wednesday’s question: Whose wedding guest list included ELSIE WAYNE, JEAN CHAREST, JACQUES MARTIN and ROGER NEILSON?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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