The Brit Pack

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Nov 11, 2024 View in browser
 
Global Playbook x COP29 header

By Suzanne Lynch

WELCOME to Day 2 of Global Playbook from Azerbaijan, where COP29 is underway. Baku’s elliptical national stadium is the unlikely venue for the world’s top climate event, with the football and entertainment space transformed for two weeks into an international diplomacy hub.

The World Leaders Climate Action Summit begins at lunchtime, kicking off two days of speeches by heads of state and government. While the heaviest hitters have stayed away, some A-listers are in town: British PM Keir Starmer and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley will be among those delivering speeches in the main plenary hall over the next few days, with delegates watching for whether leaders reveal plans about their national determined contributions (NDCs) — the next set of U.N. climate targets — which are due early next year (more on that below).

Calming nerves: With Donald Trump's reelection dominating discussion on the COP sidelines, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden's climate envoy John Podesta insisted Washington remains committed to fighting climate change. "Facts are still facts. Science is still science. The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country,” Podesta said in a press conference Monday, noting that many Republicans supported Biden's green subsidies.

Not calming nerves: Trump tapped former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin to helm the Environmental Protection Agency Monday, having pledged to pull back Biden-era rules.

Even China is getting worried about Trump's return. “The international situation has really changed — we’re also concerned about the United States after the election,” China's top climate official Liu Zhenmin told reporters, including our own Karl Mathiesen.

PROTESTS, WHAT PROTESTS?

PETRO-STATES UNITED: Azerbaijan has joined the list of international bad boys hosting COP, following the UAE’s stint last year. The ex-Soviet country is one of the world’s leading fossil fuel exporters, with oil and gas accounting for a whopping 60 percent of its income.

Clear as mud: Research released by Oil Change International, 350.org and other NGOs ahead of COP29 shows the troika of hosts of the U.N. climate talks between 2023 and 2025 plan to significantly expand oil and gas production by 2035. Next year's host Brazil is on track to ramp up production by 36 percent, the UAE by 34 percent and Azerbaijan by 14 percent.

Quashing dissent: Azerbaijan’s human rights record is also under the spotlight. The country managed a paltry 7/100 in the Freedom House Global Freedom Index. “Power in Azerbaijan’s authoritarian regime remains heavily concentrated in the hands of [President] Ilham Aliyev … and his extended family. Corruption is rampant, and the formal political opposition has been weakened by years of persecution,” the report says. Azerbaijan also ranks 164th out of 180 for press freedom, according to Reporters Without Borders.

Protest-free zone: There are few signs of protests in Baku, despite tens of thousands of people filing in for the climate talks. One person making their voice heard from nearby is Greta Thunberg, who takes aim not just at Azerbaijan’s green credentials but also its politics, accusing the country of whitewashing its crimes . The climate activist has been protesting in neighboring Georgia, which is reeling from a disputed election.

War-mongering: Azerbaijan’s activities in Nagorno-Karabakh, where it waged a lightning war that forced 100,000 Armenians to flee the disputed region, is the other elephant in the room. In case anyone had any doubts about Baku’s stance, one of the main conference rooms at the COP climate talks gives a not-so-subtle reminder. It's named “Karabakh.”

Call for accountability: In a letter seen by my POLITICO colleague Zia Weise, a delegation of members of the European Parliament asked to meet with Azeri Justice Minister Farid Ahmadov ahead of their visit to COP next week. The MEPs call for the release of detained prisoners, and ask for access to three people with serious health conditions: human rights activist Anar Mammadli, journalist Nargiz Absalamova and academic Gubad Ibadoghlu.

The Friends of Armenia Network, headed by former NATO chief and Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen, urged Europe to use its leverage to make clear “that the time has come to reach an agreement for a sustainable peace with Armenia, to secure the safe and dignified return of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the immediate release of all Armenian prisoners of war held in Azerbaijan.”

Reminder: Rasmussen’s consultancy, Rasmussen Global, represents the Armenian government. He’s not the only former world leader taking an interest in the political climate in the region. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has been an adviser to the Azerbaijani government, was in town Monday, meeting with COP chief Mukhtar Babayev . (Consultancy firm Teneo snagged the multi-million-dollar comms contract for Azerbaijan’s COP presidency.)

THE BRIT PACK

STARMER SETS OUT HIS STALL: Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer touched down in Baku last night, along with his Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. Given the dearth of G7 and European leaders on the ground here in Baku, this is a chance for Starmer's new Labour government to stand out from the crowd.

Taking a stand: POLITICO's Charlie Cooper, who is traveling with the prime minister's team, reports the whistle-stop visit to Baku gives the prime minister an opportunity to lay claim to climate leadership and tout Labour’s green credentials as it seeks to cut gas from Britain’s power system by 2030. Starmer may also reveal details of the U.K.'s planned NDCs.

Problem 1: But as our POLITICO Pro colleagues in the U.K. report , there is a growing rift in Westminster as both of Britain’s main parties vow to switch the energy system from fossil fuels to homegrown renewables: Where will all the new solar farms, wind turbines and pylons go? Politicians are bridling at the pace of change, as NIMBYism takes hold across England’s green and pleasant land.

Problem 2: The U.K.’s close association with BP. Charlie Cooper reports that the British drilling giant is close to Azerbaijan’s government, and did more than any other company to help the country build up its oil and gas wealth after the fall of the Soviet Union. A joke doing the rounds here in Baku is that the Azeri government sees two U.K. power bases in Baku: the British Embassy — and BP’s office, Charlie writes.

Trump talk: One thing that is clear: Starmer, whose party has already fallen foul of the incoming Trump administration, won't spout off on the president-elect's stance on climate change. "I’m not going to comment on his views,” the PM told reporters on board his plane to Baku. “I am very clear in mine, which is that the climate challenge is something that we have got to rise to and that’s why I’ve repeatedly said we’ve got to show leadership."

ACCESS ALL AREAS

IN THE ZONE: In keeping with previous COPs, activities at Baku Stadium are spread across two areas: the Blue and Green zones. The Blue Zone, which is managed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is the delegate-only area (though journalists also get the nod). Members of the public can buy tickets to visit the Green Zone pavilions next door.

MIND YOUR BADGE: It wouldn’t be an international summit without badge rivalry. Here’s a lowdown on the hierarchy at COP29 ...

Red badge: Head of government delegation

Blue badge: U.N. organizations/UNFCCC staff members

Yellow badge: NGOs

Orange badge: Journalists

Pink badge: Government delegations

Green badge: Intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)

COFFEE CULTURE: Once again, the Australian Pavilion in the Blue Zone is hard to beat — there was a steady line of people waiting for the Aussies' top-notch free coffee. But the Resilience Hub has a tasty alternative and a spacious lounge to boot.

HYDRATION STATION: It was strictly a one-in, one-out policy at the Services Hub on the opening day as delegates patiently queued for a must-have accessory: the official COP29 water bottle. With military precision, staff cross-referenced each person’s badge as they distributed the stylish bottles, refusing to hand out any extras to those who asked.

GEARING UP: Most pavilions were still in prep mode Monday ahead of today’s leaders’ summit, though it was standing-room only at Indonesia’s opening ceremony, featuring Environment Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar.

Canada’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Ambassador for Climate Change Catherine Stewart will be guests of honor at the official opening of the Canadian Pavilion at 9 a.m. today.

Singapore’s official opening is scheduled for 10:30 a.m.

POLICY CORNER

EU TO MISS CLIMATE DEADLINE: It may see itself as the world’s leader on climate change, but the European Union is all but guaranteed to miss the fast-approaching U.N. deadline to submit new nationally determined contributions, Zia Weise reports.

Reminder: Signatories to the Paris Agreement have until Feb. 10 to file their climate target plans up to 2035. A couple of countries — the United Arab Emirates and Brazil, hosts of last year’s and next year’s COP climate summits, respectively — posted theirs last week.

Do as we say, not as we do: But European diplomats and officials told Zia it was highly unlikely the EU could make the February deadline — it's currently in institutional limbo following the summer’s European Parliament election, and countries are divided over whether to push for more climate ambition. Read the full story here.

UP YOUR GAME: Businesses aren't improving their climate disclosures quickly enough to address the accelerating climate crisis. That’s the message from the EY Global Climate Risk Barometer out today, which surveyed around 1,400 companies across 51 countries.

Prepping for the transition: The report contains some dismal news about corporates’ plans for the energy transition. Only 41 percent of companies say they have a transition plan, with the U.K. and EU leading the charge. At the other end of the spectrum, two of the world’s biggest emitters — China and the U.S. — are laggards. Only a third of American corporates have disclosed their transition plans, with the number plummeting to 8 percent for China.

Reality check: Matthew Bell , who heads up EY’s global climate change and sustainability team, said the report is a wake-up call given the scale of the climate crisis. Companies "don't have transition plans, don't have comprehensive disclosures connected to financial impacts," he noted. "We're not moving quick enough. We're driving incrementalism in a world running out of time."

AGENDA

All times are local. Full agenda here.

— A Force for Good: The Role of Social Media Content Creators in Climate Communications; organized by TILT Network and U.N. Climate Change; Special Event Room, Nasimi; Blue Zone; 9 a.m.

— Ministerial Dialogue: Scaling Up Investment for Tripling Renewables and Doubling Energy Efficiency. Scheduled speakers include World Bank President Ajay Banga; U.S. climate envoy John Podesta; European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño; U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband; President of Asian Development Bank Masatsugu Asakawa; President of the African Development Bank Akinwumi A. Adesina ; Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov; IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol; Mugham Room; Blue Zone; 10:30 a.m.

— Opening Ceremony of the World Leaders Climate Action Summit; noon.

— Transforming Industry for the Climate Resilient 1.5 Pathway; Special Event Room, Hirkan; Blue Zone; 1 p.m.

— From Call to Action: The Bridgetown Initiative and Delivering Global Financial System Reform: Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley in conversation with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy; U.K. Pavilion; 2:45 p.m.

— High-Level Roundtable on Energy: Advancing Climate Mitigation Action; Meeting Room 21, Area D; 2 p.m.

— Equality Lounge@COP29; Deloitte Booth; Blue Zone; 2 p.m.

— High-Level Launch of the Annual High-Level Dialogue on Coordination and Complementarity for Funding Arrangements Responding to Loss and Damage; Meeting Room 22; 3 p.m.

— COP29 Women Leading on Climate event featuring former Canadian Minister of Environment Catherine McKenna and CEO of We Mean Business Coalition María Mendiluce ; Business Pavilion, Blue Zone; 4 p.m.

— COP29 Presidency Signing Ceremony: From Pledges to Action: Full Operationalization of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage; Press Conference; Karabakh, Area D; 4:30 p.m.

— From Pledges to Action: Full Operationalization of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage; Meeting Room 24; 4:30 p.m.

— Mobilizing Ocean Action: the 10th Our Ocean Conference; Ocean Pavilion; Blue Zone; 4:30 p.m.

— COP29 Summit on Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases; Plenary Room 2 “Caspian;” 5 p.m.

THANKS to Karl Mathiesen, Zia Weise, Sara Schonhardt and Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

 

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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