| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has been hiding somewhere in Venezuela since the Maduro regime issued an arrest warrant against her in August on allegations of inciting violence. | Cristian Hernandez/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Robbie Gramer, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Venezuelan government’s threats against opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO are growing louder. And her allies in the Venezuelan diaspora and in Washington are pointing to that danger as they urge the Biden administration to take more decisive action, more quickly against President NICOLÁS MADURO. Speaking on national television Thursday, Interior Minister and top Maduro ally DIOSDADO CABELLO taunted Machado, saying that the regime knows her whereabouts within the country and that she cannot remain in hiding much longer. It follows comments Tuesday from Maduro on his weekly television program that Machado would be captured and prosecuted. The opposition leader has been hiding somewhere in Venezuela since the Maduro regime issued an arrest warrant against her in August on allegations of inciting violence. RAFAEL DE LA CRUZ, who leads Machado’s U.S. office, said in an interview with NatSec Daily that her team is taking the threats seriously. “We are certainly very concerned, because this is a criminal regime,” de la Cruz said. “We are reasonably sure that she is in a safe position right now, in a safer location. But again, that's not something that can be taken for granted.” De la Cruz’s stark warning comes as the window for a democratic transition of power in Venezuela closes. The new president is slated to take office on Jan. 10, but Maduro has still not published precinct-level receipts backing up his claims that he won against opposition candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ URRUTIA in July’s ballot. The opposition organized observers to stay at most of the country’s polling stations and collected voting records that it used to publish its own electoral results. The opposition’s results show that González handily defeated Maduro. International pressure has failed to nudge Maduro toward considering stepping down or holding a new election. Earlier this week, Maduro’s government slammed Brazilian national security adviser CELSO AMORIM, a key regional interlocutor with Caracas, as “acting more like a messenger for North American imperialism” after Brazil blocked Venezuela’s bid to join the BRICS alliance. And the Venezuelan police on Thursday taunted Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA , one of the few heads of state in the region that has tried to maintain a relationship with Maduro and convince him to relinquish power peacefully, warning that “he who messes with Venezuela is left out to dry." Some U.S. lawmakers have urged the U.S. take action against Venezuela’s lucrative oil sector. In a statement to NatSec Daily, Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) pointed to legislation he introduced to cut off U.S. oil licenses in Venezuela as a needed step to punish Caracas. “The fact that Maduro and his criminal enablers still refuse to accept the clear and decisive election victory of Edmundo González, arbitrarily arrested thousands, and are further exacerbating the suffering of the Venezuelan people is outrageous,” he said. Yet the Biden administration has ruled out further oil sanctions, as loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember. Deputy national security adviser JON FINER said in a statement to NatSec Daily that the United States "continues to work with partners and allies, including some that maintain relations with Maduro, to increase pressure to return to a democratic path. We also continue to increase sanctions pressure, including on individuals who are credibly accused of corruption and human rights abuses." Finer also pointed to, among other U.S. actions, a Sept. 26 joint statement of 50 countries signed on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly calling for the end of the repression and restoration of democracy in Venezuela. De la Cruz insisted that Venezuelans will resolve their own crisis and restore their own democracy. But he added that further signals of support from the United States, be they sanctions against Maduro officials or the country’s oil sector or a new wave of international pressure, matter to ensure the Maduro regime faces accountability for its actions. “What we want is a political signal from them,” said de la Cruz. “We want them to do something, something and send the signal that normalizing the de facto regime is not possible after the 10th of January.”
| | IRAN ON THE RECORD: Iran is planning to respond to Israel’s Oct. 25 attack, and this time they’re doing it publicly. As The Wall Street Journal’s RORY JONES reports, Gen. HOSSEIN SALAMI, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Thursday that Tehran will “give an unimaginable response to the enemy” in response to the strike. Earlier this week, CNN had reported that Iran was looking to respond before the election, attributing the information to a senior Iranian official. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that there are real questions in Washington about what Iran could do to strike in response after Israel managed to take out some key facilities. ARCTIC ANXIETIES: The U.S.’s top diplomat for the Arctic is getting antsy about potential Russian and Chinese military cooperation at the planet’s most northern latitudes. As Reuters’ GWLADYS FOUCHE reports, U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for the Arctic MICHAEL SFRAGA warned that the “frequency and the complexity" of recent military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing in the region has sent "concerning signals to the United States.” Among the incidents keeping Sfraga up at night are the July joint run by Russian and Chinese bomber planes off the coast of Alaska and the joint sailing of Chinese and Russian coast guard ships through the Bering Strait in October. "The fact that they are working together in the Arctic has our attention," Sfraga told Reuters. "We are being both vigilant and diligent about this. We're watching very closely this evolution of their activity." HANOI’S NOT HAVING IT: Vietnam has joined the Philippines and Indonesia in pushing back against China’s moves to assert its expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Hanoi’s hackles are up about Beijing’s construction of a radar facility on Tri Ton Island in the Paracel island chain claimed by Vietnam. That move is just the latest in “activities that violate” Vietnamese sovereignty, said Vietnam’s foreign ministry spokesperson, DOAN KHAC VIET, per Vietnam state media today. That follows Doan’s demand on Thursday that Beijing release the crews of Vietnamese fishing vessels that he claimed Chinese authorities had “illegally detained” last month. Beijing is unsympathetic. Vietnamese fishing vessels should avoid “illegal activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said today. Vietnam’s border friction with Beijing is nothing new. But Hanoi’s growing willingness to vocally confront it reflects wider regional concern about China’s increasingly aggressive moves, including incursions into Philippine waters and a face-off between Indonesian and Chinese vessels in Jakarta’s waters last week. Beijing’s claims in the region extend some 1,200 miles from China’s coastline into waters that Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei insist are theirs. VOTER FRAUD IN (THE OTHER) GEORGIA: Two U.S. pollsters are calling into question the results of last week’s Georgian parliamentary election. Per Reuters’ FELIX LIGHT , pollsters Edison Research and HarrisX conducted exit polls during Saturday’s election that would render the officially posted result in Georgia’s elections, which saw the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party prevail, “statistically impossible.” Though the exit polls were commissioned by the opposition, they add to the concerns that Georgian Dream may have interfered with the processing of election results in order to hold onto power. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring JACK DETSCH, who joined our team this week to cover the services and we think you should get to know. Jack told us he’s on a serious foreign liquor kick. Last year, it was Indian gin that made months worth of G&Ts. Now it’s another notorious beverage. Any Ukrainian will tell you that some of their worst hangovers have probably come from a drink they call “drunk cherry,” a western Ukrainian cherry-flavored liqueur that you can find on the streets of Kyiv and Warsaw. It can be enjoyed hot or cold, bougie in a wine glass or in a low-key paper cup over a trash can fire. And per Jack, it also happens to be really freaking delicious. “There is liquor that can warm your heart,” Jack told us. “But drunk cherry warms your soul.” And like any good hard liquor, it will also leave your insides feeling like a freshly cleaned carburetor. Jack is looking forward to testing how your NSD hosts can handle “drunk cherry” this weekend. Budmo, Jack! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ErinBanco, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | MORE MUSLIM VOTER WOES: The Council of American Islamic Relations put out its final poll before the election, and it’s a doozy for Vice President KAMALA HARRIS. Harris is essentially tied with Green Party candidate JILL STEIN among Muslim voters, the poll found. Stein has the backing of 42 percent of Muslim voters, while Harris has the backing of 41 percent. The poll, conducted from Oct. 30 to Oct. 31, surveyed 1,449 Muslim voters and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. NIHAD AWAD, the organization’s national executive director, argued those numbers reflect are rooted in one issue:. “opposition to U.S. support for the war on Gaza continues to play a major role in influencing Muslim voter preferences.” Both Stein and Harris have gained support from August, when they enjoyed 29.1 and 29.4 percent support among American Muslim voters, but Stein’s numbers could be a bad sign for the Harris campaign in key swing states with large Muslim American populations, including Michigan, Arizona and Georgia.
| | | EASTERLY’S EARNEST EFFORTS: Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency chief JEN EASTERLY has a lot going on in the next few weeks. Bloomberg’s KATRINA MANSON is out today with a look at how Easterly has helmed the agency, which faced considerable scrutiny under her predecessor CHRIS KREBS amid the turmoil surrounding the 2020 election. Easterly, Manson writes, has worked to win the trust of fellow government agencies and private sector companies and now is trying to win over voters. She’s taking that effort to the airwaves, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity wrote this morning (for Pros!) . She went on Fox News this week to spread the word that U.S. election infrastructure is secure, foreign adversaries are pushing disinformation and Americans should trust their local election officials. Easterly’s work to shore up confidence in her agency comes as CISA experiences a sort of crisis of identity. There is a debate about whether CISA should stick to its current work or wade back into the thorny, and politically dicey, territory of addressing election disinformation that it did in 2020. Some, like former CISA chief SUZANNE SPAULDING argue that some agency needs to address disinformation and that it should be CISA. “If CISA is not helping to train state and local election officials for how to deal with this threat, who’s going to do that?” she said on a panel Thursday with our own MAGGIE MILLER.
| | | DEMS DEFEND DEI: A group of 21 House Democrats are urging the leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees to drop Republican-backed provisions that restrict Pentagon diversity, equity and inclusion efforts from the marquee defense spending bill, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Limiting diversity efforts was a major theme in House Republicans' version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which passed largely along party lines. The lawmakers, led by Rep. JENNIFER McCLELLAN (D-Va.), urged NDAA negotiators in a letter to drop a variety of provisions — including a hiring freeze for DEI-related positions and the elimination of all DEI offices in the armed forces and the Pentagon's chief diversity officer. They argue these efforts "undercut DoD’s efforts to recruit and retain a diverse and representative military." "While subject to vicious and often untrue, politically motivated attacks, these initiatives are key to ensuring that our military is representative of our nation and is able to support the needs of the diverse group of men and women who constitute its ranks," the lawmakers wrote.
| | | |   | | | | | PRE-ELECTION MILEAGE: It’s the Friday before election day, but some key House lawmakers are far from their districts this weekend. Reps. MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, JERRY CARL (R-Ala.), and MIKE QUIGLEY (D-Ill.), the co-chair of the House Ukraine Caucus, are in Kyiv today, per a post from U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK. The three lawmakers, Brink said, are in Ukraine to “see firsthand how U.S. assistance is making a difference on the ground in support of Ukraine’s freedom and democracy.” The trip comes as Kyiv has stepped up its requests for more aid and the Ukrainian government has protested Western inaction in the face of deepening military ties between Russia and North Korea.
| | AXIS OF ???: We asked, you answered. Earlier this week, we reported on how “axis of evil” and other variants are being thrown around by natsec bigwigs to describe the growing cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — a trend that’s happening even as analysts debate whether lumping all these countries together is a good idea or not. (That debate has yet to be settled.) But since “axis of evil” is sooo 2003, we wanted to know — were there any other ideas out there? We got a lot of emails, but here’s a rundown of some of the best responses we got:
- Axis of upheaval: JONATHAN LORD and RICHARD FONTAINE of the Center for a New American Security think tank both reached out to point out how their think tank has taken to using this moniker.
- Quartet of terror: Former Trump State Department spokesperson MORGAN ORTAGUS has taken to calling the coordination between these countries the “quartet of evil” and described their military cooperation as a “supply chain of terror.”
- Arsenal of autocracies : A suggestion from NatSec Daily reader AARON SHERMAN, and a clever twist on the World War II-era “arsenal of democracy” language.
- Axis of aggressors: A new term thrown around a lot by experts at the conservative-leaning Hudson Institute think tank.
- Quadruple Entente: NatSec Daily reader ALBERT B. WOLF suggested this moniker, along with a few more creative options such as “Axis of Just-as-Evil” and (for the James Bond fans), Spectre.
- The Borg: For all you Star Trek fans, another suggestion from one of our readers. It probably won’t catch on here in stuffy, buttoned-up Washington, but hey, points for creativity.
| | — The FDIC named AMANDA LAVIS as director of the agency’s Office of Equal Employment Opportunity. Lavis previously was the chief culture officer for the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command. — ALEX TIERSKY is now director for Western Europe at the National Security Council. He most recently was a senior adviser for Ukraine recovery at USAID.
| | — JAVIER CORRALES, Americas Quarterly: Why Cuba is in the dark — CHRISTIAAN TRIEBERT, ELIAN PELTIER, RILEY MELLEN and SANJANA VARGHESE, The New York Times: How Wagner’s ruthless image crumbled in Mali — SOPHIE INGE and ESTHER WEBBER, POLITICO: How Brexit helped Britain lose the Chagos Islands
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | — Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Navigating GPS vulnerabilities: Implications for U.S. economic and national security — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11:30 a.m.: China in the Middle East — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: The European Union and the Gulf in the changing world order — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: The past, present, and future of artificial intelligence and autonomy at the DOD — Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, 4 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on” America's Cold Warrior: Paul Nitze and National Security from Roosevelt to Reagan." — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies Rethinking Iran Initiative, 5:30 p.m.: "Global Repercussions of Sanctions," focusing on "whether sanctions truly contribute to global stability or if they instead trigger economic collapse, humanitarian crises, and political unrest" Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is ramping up her threats against me. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is working to defend me from Heidi’s increased aggression. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
