TIME’S UP: Happy Election Day! We anticipate a lot of our readers are experiencing the anxiety that comes with a high-stakes presidential race, even as deep-blue California feels like it’s playing a bit on the sidelines. So what will we be watching tonight? The Golden State will actually be critical to determining control of Congress, with hyper-competitive seats up for grabs in the Central Valley and Southern California. And, of course, there’s the state’s famous laundry list of ballot measures, which asks voters to decide the fate of everything from involuntary servitude to rent control. (See yesterday’s newsletter for more on that.) We also can’t forget several high-profile mayoral, legislative and district attorney races happening up and down the state. Here’s your cheat sheet for following the action. When will we get results? Polls close across the state at 8 p.m., so you still have time to get your ballot in, if you haven’t already! But keep in mind that California is known for being slow to count ballots, so results for the tightest races may take a while. The 2022 Central Valley contest between GOP Rep. John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray was so close that it wasn’t called until Dec. 2, for example. Results from that rematch — and the other nearby contest between Republican Rep. David Valadao and Democrat Rudy Salas — will likely take a long time to tabulate this time, too, as they include rural counties with fewer election resources. Election watchers will probably get results more quickly in Orange County. That will be followed by Los Angeles County — the country’s most populous — which may trail only due to the sheer number of ballots poll workers will need to count. What are the closest races to watch? Several of the most flippable House seats are in Southern California. The Orange County race between GOP Rep. Michelle Steel and Democrat Derek Tran has been the most expensive in the country in terms of outside spending. Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh are both trying to succeed Rep. Katie Porter in a district that’s previously proven very challenging to keep blue. We’re also keeping our eye on the Riverside County rematch between Republican Rep. Ken Calvert and Democratic challenger Will Rollins, plus the northern Los Angeles County contest between GOP Rep. Mike Garcia and Democrat George Whitesides. The head of House Republicans’ campaign said the Garcia-Whitesides race might be the tightest one this cycle, our colleague Olivia Beavers reports. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election-watching project from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, yesterday assigned ratings to several remaining toss-up races. It shifted the Steel-Tran race to “leans Republican” and the Duarte-Gray and Garcia-Whitesides races to “leans Democrat.” What do we know about turnout (so far)? The short answer: Fewer voters are expected to cast ballots than in 2020, but the state will see a far higher turnout than during the 2022 midterms. California political data expert Paul Mitchell told Playbook he expects turnout to hit 75 percent this year, compared to 80 percent in 2020. Without Covid, there are more distractions that could keep people from voting this time around, pushing down the number of voters. However, Mitchell thinks 2022 is a better metric, especially for close House races. For example, turnout in the Valadao-Salas race that year was far lower, he said. With more voters turning out in a presidential year, that could give Democrats a boost. As of late this morning, about 40 percent of voters had returned their ballots, according to Mitchell’s firm, Political Data Inc. Any new trends this year? Historically, California was a land of the “blue shift”: Republicans would have an edge in early mail-in ballots, while Democrats tended to vote in person or in late mail, meaning results would become bluer later in the vote-tally process. Just look at 2018, when Democratic House candidates trailed after the first day of vote-counting but ended up flipping seven GOP seats once all the ballots were included. Then, former President Donald Trump ’s baseless conspiracy-mongering about mail-in votes during the 2020 election flipped that dynamic on its head. Suddenly, it was Republicans waiting until Election Day while Democrats enthusiastically embraced vote-by-mail, and the state saw a marked “red shift” as votes were calculated. This time, Trump and the GOP have urged their supporters to vote by mail, and there are signs that Republican voters have followed suit. But some may have a hard time shaking their mail skepticism and choose to vote on Election Day. Instead of a uniform statewide shift, Mitchell says it could vary by region. Districts with more conservative base voters — “a lot of guys in trucks with Trump flags,” as Mitchell describes it — will likely see a red shift as the count progresses, such as Calvert’s Riverside district. But in, for example, the Min-Baugh race, “I don’t see any Trump flags on trucks. I see a lot of suburban rich Republicans at the Whole Foods. And I see a lot of college students and younger voters,” Mitchell said. In that district, the stream of late ballots is likely to be more progressive and therefore will trend bluer in the later count. IT’S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
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