Who will lead the Trump economy?

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Nov 18, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

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With help from Sam Sutton

President-elect Donald Trump walks past Elon Musk as they attend the America First Policy Institute Gala held at Mar-a-Lago on November 14, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida.

Internal disputes over who could lead Donald Trump's economic agenda spilled out into the public when Elon Musk publicly backed transition co-chair Howard Lutnick for a top role. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

QUICK FIX

— President-elect Donald Trump has yet to fill key economic posts, sparking public disputes and highlighting internal divisions over his next administration’s approach to tariffs and the economy.

— China’s Xi Jinping said he’s ready to work with the next U.S. administration during his third and likely final meeting with outgoing President Joe Biden.

— The U.S. Treasury Department added South Korea to a "monitoring list" of major trading partners. It also dropped Malaysia from that list.

It’s Monday, Nov. 18. Welcome back to Morning Trade! Got tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a coffee? Hit us up at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can follow us on X: @_AriHawkins, @GavinBade and @tradereporter.

 

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Driving the day

UP NEXT, THE ECONOMY:  Donald Trump has moved quickly since his election victory to fill key cabinet and advisory roles. But his top economic posts remain conspicuously empty.

Those roles could be announced in the coming days or weeks. And the competition for them remains fierce — a signal that the overall scope of Trump’s economic and trade approach is still being determined, despite the president-elect’s repeated promise to impose high tariffs.

Knives out for Scott: Internal disputes spilled out into the public over the weekend, when Elon Musk, who was tapped to co-lead the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, voiced support for transition co-chair Howard Lutnick to lead the Treasury Department over Scott Bessent. Some in Trump’s inner circle view Bessent, the founder of capital management firm Key Square, as insufficiently supportive of Trump’s tariff proposals.

“My view [for what it’s worth] is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas [Lutnick] will actually enact change,” Musk posted Saturday on X. “Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change one way or another.”

That view seemed to get a nod of approval from protectionists in Washington. “Trump needs a treasury secretary who STRONGLY agrees with his vision for universal tariffs for substantial revenue as well as protection beyond ‘strategic’ industries,” wrote Michael Stumo, CEO of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, on X. “I’ve not seen [the] financial sector/Wall St people do so yet.”

In a separate post , Stumo threw his support behind Trump’s former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer for the role.

Why it matters: Trump’s coming decisions, particularly on Treasury, will give the strongest indication yet on whether he’s set to follow through on his most protectionist impulses or hew closer to Wall Street, which has long hoped that tariffs would largely be used as negotiating leverage and wouldn’t be applied as aggressively as he’s vowed during the campaign.

What to watch: The public contention has irked Trump himself, and the infighting has caused his staff to seek alternatives beyond Bessent and Lutnick — the two front runners — for the top economic post, two sources close to the transition told Morning Trade.

That could raise the stock of folks like Lighthizer, a key economic adviser for Trump who is already helping him prepare for his first 100 days, Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Apollo Global Management chief executive Marc Rowan or even former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.

Meanwhile, the race for USTR remains similarly opaque. Lighthizer, who served as USTR in Trump's first administration, is eyeing a bigger post this time around, whether that’s Treasury or Commerce secretary or becoming a White House economic adviser.

Shoving him back to USTR could indicate that Trump’s support for his protectionist agenda is on the wane in the White House. It could also stall the ascension of his former chief of staff, Jamieson Greer — who’s considered a frontrunner to head the agency — and Stephen Vaughn, formerly general counsel at USTR, where he assisted Lighthizer in numerous negotiations.

 

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Around the World

CHINA BRACES FOR TRUMP: China’s leader Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden he’s ready to work with Trump to improve relations between the world’s largest economies.

The two leaders met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Lima, in what was their third and likely final meeting before Biden leaves office. It comes about two months before Donald Trump re-enters the White House, when the countries’ relationship could be plunged into a new era of turbulence.

“China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples,” Xi told Biden through a translator. “In an age of flourishing sci-tech revolution, neither decoupling nor supply chain disruption is a solution.”

Trump has vowed to re-shape the relationship between the U.S. and China and proposed tariffs of at least 60 percent on Chinese imports, as well as a 20 percent universal tariff. He’s already tapped China-hawks who will back an aggressive approach for senior roles in his next administration, from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as Secretary of State to Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser.

IMMIGRATION DEBATE LOOMS: Earl Anthony Wayne, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said immigration could play a central role ahead of the USMCA review in 2026.

“Two things are going to come up before we ever get to trade negotiations. One is how migration is handled and two is related to how the border is handled,” Wayne said during a discussion on Friday at the Wilson Center.

Reminder: Trump pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican goods if the country does not do more to stop the flow of migrants across its border into the United States.

 

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REGULATORY REVIEW

NEW ADD TO FINANCE WATCHLIST: The U.S. Treasury Department added South Korea to a "monitoring list" of major trading partners whose currency practices warrant closer scrutiny over its large current account surplus, according to the latest semiannual report to Congress.

Countries that meet two of the three criteria are automatically placed on the monitoring list: A trade surplus with the U.S. exceeding $15 billion, a global account surplus above 3 percent of GDP and consistent, one-way intervention in foreign exchange markets. China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam and Germany are also on the monitoring list.

In addition, Treasury dropped Malaysia from the list because it only met the third criteria.

Silver lining: The report said that no major U.S. trading partner manipulated its exchange rate or met the criteria for “enhanced analysis” of their currency practices.

But the report did call China an “outlier among major economies" and chastised the country for a lack of transparency around features of its exchange rate policy. China also holds an "outsized trade imbalance with the United States," Treasury said.

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
TRADE OVERNIGHT

— EU prepares to retaliate against U.S. in longrunning olive dispute, per POLITICO Pro.

— Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has some advice for his reeling party, POLITICO reports.

— Senators urge Biden administration to speed up China telecom hack investigation, POLITICO Pro reports.

— EU to press China over drones for Russia, warns of “consequences,” POLITICO Europe reports.

— Xi Jinping opens huge port in Peru funded by China, per Reuters.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com . Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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