Just smile and wave

Dec 02, 2024

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By Mickey Djuric with Philippe J. Fournier

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In today's edition:

→ Behind the scenes at Mar-a-Lago.

→ The week ahead on the Hill.

→ End of the line for Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT?

Talk of the town

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads out to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in West Palm Beach. | AFP via Getty Images

CHANGING THE CHANNEL — Photos of Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and president-elect DONALD TRUMP smiling ear to ear at Mar-a-Lago circulated online all weekend.

— Show don’t tell: The showboating was a signal from the Liberal government to haters that Trudeau can too work with Trump and his inner circle.

→ Read: What Trudeau told Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

— Pay no attention: On Sunday, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE tried to shift the narrative, telling reporters the PM went into the dinner showing “weakness.”

“What gains did we hear from Mr. Trudeau? None. He’s just trying to limit losses,” Poilievre said in a rented ballroom at the Marriott with a “fix the broken border” sign in front of him and 15 Canadian flags behind — including one so large it could fly outside a suburban Walmart.

— Warming up to the gallery: Since Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, Poilievre has held three press conferences in the Ottawa fishbowl — an unusual cadence for his office.

— Less attack dog, more diplomacy: Poilievre wants to convince Canadians he’s the best person to take on a Trump presidency, so he is dialing down slogans and personal attacks — removing “wacko” when talking about Trudeau’s “drug policies,” for example.

He’s also added “Mr.” to Trudeau’s name and is generally attempting to make himself seem statesmanlike. He’s even offered to make accommodations in the House of Commons to help “quickly” pass a plan to secure the border from crime, drugs and illegal immigration.

— Next question: Asked if he or anyone in his party has been in touch with Trump’s transition team since the U.S. election, Poilievre replied: “I’m not the prime minister.”

— Remaining discreet: Much like Trudeau’s visit to West Palm Beach, the Liberal government is keeping its cards close. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC has promised more helicopters, drones and border workers — which he told CBC News was relayed to Trump.

— Behind the invite: Trudeau and Trump agreed to meet during their phone call last Monday, a senior government source tells Playbook. Trump personally invited Trudeau to Mar-a-Lago, though the source wouldn’t say when he shared the invite. Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. told AP it arrived Friday.

— Read: The takeaway from Trudeau's trip: For Trump fentanyl is priority No. 1.

— For those not keeping count: This is the fourth time Trudeau and Trump have connected since the summer. The first was following Trump’s assassination attempt in a call that came together with the help of Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and her friend U.S. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM. The second was when Trump won the U.S. election. The third was after Trump threatened Canada with tariffs, and the fourth was Friday’s dinner in Florida.

— Happy hour ruined: The PM’s surprise trip had journalists racing back to their laptops on Friday as they tracked the PM’s plane flying south.

The PM and his office acknowledged the dinner only after Trump had posted about the meeting, with Trump describing it as “productive.”

— H/T: The Toronto Sun’s BRYAN PASSIFIUME, who alerted the world that the PM’s plane was over Pennsylvania.

— Also spotted at Mar-a-Lago: Trudeau’s chief of staff KATIE TELFORD; deputy chief of staff BRIAN CLOW; Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. KIRSTEN HILLMAN; Pennsylvania Sen.-elect DAVE MCCORMICK and his wife, former deputy national security adviser DINA POWELL; Gov. DOUG BURGUM, Trump’s nominee to be Interior secretary, and his wife; HOWARD LUTNICK, Trump’s nominee to be Commerce secretary, and his wife; and incoming national security adviser MIKE WALTZ and his wife, JULIA NESHEIWAT, former homeland security adviser.

— ELON MUSK sightings: 0

DRIVING THE DAY

SILLY SEASON STANDOFF — The Liberal government has just over a week to pass C$21.6 billion in new spending before departments start running out of cash.

Government options:

Get unanimous consent to end the Tories’ privilege debate motion in the House of Commons.
Team up with the New Democrats again to pause debate so MPs can vote on the spending.
Present a plan to tackle border security that Conservatives can agree with.

— Reminder: The Tories’ debate takes precedence over most matters in the House. So Liberals need someone to bend to their will to get the money moving.

— Dangling a carrot: In the case of adjourning the debate, Government House Leader KARINA GOULD has scheduled opposition days this week for the Conservatives and New Democrats.

— Tories’ warning shot to Dippers: The Conservatives maintain their objective is to get the unredacted documents the House ordered from the Liberal government relating to a conflict-of-interest scandal linked to a green technology fund.

On Friday, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE teased a confidence motion New Democrats will deal with should they help Liberals pause their debate. The motion is composed entirely of NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH’s own words and criticism of the PM.

— Final sell: Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND handles the government’s purse strings. She will make her case tomorrow as to why the vote needs to happen, when she appears before the government operations and estimates committee.

Defense Minister BILL BLAIR has already made his appeal, asking MPs to enable the vote. There’s more than C$3.3 billion in defense spending on the line, he said, including aid for Ukraine.

— Final recourse: NDP House Leader PETER JULIAN said if MPs don’t want to suspend the debate, Speaker GREG FERGUS can. OLIVIER DUHAIME, spokesperson for the Office of the Speaker, told us in a statement: “I can’t speculate what will be the decision of the Speaker.”

If he does weigh in, it’d be an unprecedented move.

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

Quebec's Prime Minister Francois Legault and his wife Isabelle Brais arrive for the 19th Francophonie Summit, at the Elysee Palace, in Paris, Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

François Legault, premier of Quebec, with his wife, Isabelle Brais, at the 19th Francophonie Summit in Paris last month. | AP

END OF THE LINE? — A majority of Quebec voters now think Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT should step down before the next election in the province, scheduled for October 2026.

— From mighty to middling: Legault has long said that his decision to run in 2026 will hinge on whether he feels the “support of the population.”

— Mood check: A new Pallas Data poll conducted for 338Canada and L’actualité suggests many Quebecers may have already made up their minds. According to the survey, 53 percent of respondents think Legault should step aside, while only a third believe he should seek a third term.

— Older voters are turning: Support for Legault’s departure crosses demographic and regional lines. Pallas reveals that majorities in every age bracket think it’s time for the premier to take his leave. Even among older voters (65 and over) and the francophone majority — two groups that overwhelmingly backed the CAQ in 2022 — about 50 percent say Legault should go before 2026.

— About the poll: The field date of the poll was Nov. 6 — a sample of 1,093 Quebec voters. The margin of error: Plus or minus 3 percent, 19 times out of 20.

— Widespread dissatisfaction: The desire for change aligns with dismal satisfaction ratings for the premier’s performance. A striking 63 percent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with Legault’s leadership, compared to just 20 percent who were satisfied — including 5 percent who were “very satisfied.” It leaves Legault with a minus-43 net rating.

— For context: These figures are similar to polling on PM Justin Trudeau, who has faced a torrent of criticism and calls for resignation during the past 18 months.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events scheduled.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will chair a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations at 5:30 p.m.

DULY NOTED

Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI and Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR each have a House committee date this afternoon. Details below.

MEDIA ROOM

Photo op at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution in Busan, South Korea. | AP

— POLITICO’s LEONIE CATER and HANNE COKELAERE report from Busan, South Korea: UN plastic treaty talks end without a deal.

— Top of CBC News this hour from BRIGITTE BUREAU: Agents of Indian government interfered in Patrick Brown's Conservative leadership campaign: sources.

— POLITICO's BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN reports: "We haven’t seen a pardon as sweeping as Hunter Biden’s in generations."

— From The Logic’s CATHERINE MCINTYRE: A succession tsunami is about to hit Canada hard.

— A significant majority of people, 78 percent of Canadians, want the CBC to continue. That includes 67 percent of Canadians who identify as Conservative, JESSICA JOHNSON writes about a national survey conducted as part of a research project for the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy at McGill University.

— Dalhousie’s LORI TURNBULL writes of TIM HOUSTON’s Nova Scotia sweep: “The real challenge will be when (if) Pierre Poilievre becomes prime minister. Houston has been able to carve out a territory for himself as a pragmatic red tory who can be a premier for everyone. A Poilievre victory could create an awkward juxtaposition between two very different conservatives.”

— DYLAN ROBERTSON of CP has written a series on LGBTQ+ rights in Africa based on reporting in Ghana, Cameroon and Kenya made possible by the R. James Travers Foreign Corresponding Fellowship.

— IAN AUSTEN’s “Canada Letter” in the NYT: Trade tumult from Trump’s return has begun.

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC: DPM on USMCA, DST and the FES.

And from TIM ROSS, ROBBIE GRAMER and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Russia and Ukraine fight for advantage before peace talks are imposed.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Trudeau says Trump’s tariffs would also hurt US.

— Trump 2.0 offers Trudeau a make-or-break moment.

— The anti-Trump movement is in tatters. Now it's scrambling to remain relevant.

— Washington preps for battle on high-tech immigration.

— California cap-and-trade auction sees slight increase in prices.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: Nobel Peace Prize nominee SHEILA WATT-CLOUTIER, the University of Alberta’s TIMOTHY CAULFIELD, journo RACHEL MARSDEN (50!) and former Premier DAVID ALWARD.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: Sen. JANE MACADAM, quoting LUCY MAUD MONTGOMERY in the Red Chamber.

Liberal MP KIRSTY DUNCAN, putting one foot in front of the other.

NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH getting into a Maserati.

Movers and shakers: World Trade Organization Director-General NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA formally won a second term on Friday.

Media mentions: The journalism school at Carleton University is looking for a program manager for its new Certificate in Journalism in Indigenous Communities.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

11 a.m. The House international trade committee will study softwood lumber with help from the Canadian Home Builders' Association, Forest Products Association of Canada and Unifor. During its second hour, trade impacts of Canadian leadership in reducing emissions will be discussed.

11 a.m. The House heritage committee will discuss job cuts announced at CBC/Radio Canada.

11 a.m. The House status of women committee will study breast cancer screening guidelines. It will then move in camera to discuss its upcoming report on gender-based violence.

11 a.m. CATHERINE STEWART, Canada’s ambassador for climate change, will be at the House environment committee to discuss federal emissions reduction policies.

11:15 a.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be at the House public accounts committee to discuss 2024 reports 8 to 12.

3:30 p.m. The House citizenship and immigration committee will look at reforms to the International Student Program.

3:30 p.m. Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI will be at the House justice committee to discuss estimates.

3:30 p.m. Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR will be at the House veterans affairs committee on estimates.

3:30 p.m. Grand Chief WALTER WASTESICOOT of the Keewatin Tribal Council will be at the House heritage committee to discuss the freedom of expression. Richard Robertson of B’nai Brith Canada will also attend.

4 p.m. The Senate national security and defense committee will take Bill C-26 through clause-by-clause study.

5 p.m. SHIMON FOGEL, CEO of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, will be at the Senate human rights committee to discuss antisemitism.

Behind closed doors: The House natural resources committee will spend some of its session focused on its report on Canada’s clean energy plans.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: LUCY MAUD MONTGOMERY was the first Canadian woman to become a member of the British Royal Society of Arts.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, RAY DEL BIANCO, JOHN MERRIMAN, LAURA JARVIS, GEORGE YOUNG, JOANNA PLATER, MALCOLM MCKAY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Today’s question: Today is the International Day for the Abolition of Slavery. Name the sitting MP who led the charge in the House of Commons to designate Aug. 1 of every year as “Emancipation Day” in Canada.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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