Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump’s transition. POLITICO Pro subscribers receive a version of this newsletter first. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren | Email Lisa | Email Megan When DONALD TRUMP picked billionaire financier HOWARD LUTNICK to be Commerce secretary, many observers hoped his Wall Street sensibilities would mean he would be less aggressive on trade than his main competitor for the post, former trade chief ROBERT LIGHTHIZER. That sentiment is quickly evaporating. Instead, Lutnick is emerging as one of the incoming administration’s premiere trade hawks, working closely with Lighthizer’s protege — U.S. trade representative nominee JAMIESON GREER — to set Trump’s trade and tariff agenda for the first 100 days, according to two people with knowledge of the plans granted anonymity to discuss them ahead of any announcement. While the exact parameters — like which tariff laws will be used, and how high the rates will be — aren’t yet set, the emerging expectation is that any actions are going to be aggressive like Trump’s campaign rhetoric, much to the chagrin of those who worry about potential dire economic consequences. “They’re gonna come down like a ton of bricks,” said Sen. ERIC SCHMITT (R-Mo.), a close Trump ally on the Senate Commerce Committee who met with Lutnick this week, and expects an aggressive tariff approach, particularly toward countries that don’t hew to Trump’s demands. The emerging expectation comes after months of confusion in Washington and foreign capitals about how the Cantor Fitzgerald CEO would handle the trade portfolio — and how he would share it with USTR. Lutnick had seemingly been on both sides of the tariff issue — arguing, sometimes in the same interview, for broad tariffs on a swath of imports, and also to use them merely as a negotiating tool. But those close to Lutnick point out that those options aren’t mutually exclusive. Trump can use tariffs as a cudgel — like his recent threat of 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico over migration and fentanyl issues — and also institute broad across-the-board tariffs that he promised. Indeed, that appears to be the approach Lutnick and Greer are charting during the transition. The duo is considering a litany of actions that could allow Trump to impose broad tariffs on imports, and also single out countries like China for even higher duties, according to one person directly familiar with the plans. Among the options in play are so-called Section 301 tariffs, which Trump used during the first term to impose duties on China. Or he could opt for more arcane options like Section 338, which allows tariffs on nations that discriminate against U.S. firms, or Section 122, which allows tariffs on nations with persistent trade imbalances with the U.S., a longtime Trump irritant. Neither has been used in decades. Additionally, the administration could use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, which grants broad tariff authority but requires the president to declare a national emergency. “I think they’re willing to use all the options on the table,” Schmitt said. The emerging alliance between Lutnick and Greer also sheds some light on who will actually control the trade agenda in the White House. The answer may be: a bit of both. When Trump picked Lutnick to lead Commerce, he said the financier would oversee the trade portfolio and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. But statutorily, the trade chief is supposed to report directly to the president. So, Trump’s move has ruffled some feathers on Capitol Hill, among figures like former Senate Finance Chair CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa), who said this week that USTR should not be subordinated to Commerce. Greer this week tried to reassure lawmakers, telling Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.), that “he and Howard get along very well and that they both understand [Greer] is gonna be reporting to the president,” as Barrasso recalled. That appears to be a contradiction of Trump’s statement that Lutnick would oversee USTR, but not according to Greer’s team. While Greer legally has a direct line to the president, they insist that it’s still Lutnick who is in the leading role on trade and tariffs. “As the president said, and as Jamieson has reiterated, Howard Lutnick will be leading the president’s trade agenda," said MATT SPARKS, media sherpa for Greer. In reality, those close to both figures say they are working more as a team than competing with each other. While Lutnick has a CEO’s desire to be in control of the agenda and has at his disposal Commerce’s vast capabilities, he doesn’t have the deep trade and legal knowledge needed to justify Trump’s tariff actions. That’s where Greer, with his encyclopedic knowledge of U.S. trade law, comes in. But if there’s a disagreement on tariff levels, one person with knowledge of the policy planning added, “I think Trump is going to defer to Lutnick because of his experience with the U.S. economy and Commerce Department’s ability to assess the impact on the broader U.S. economy.” “The way that Jamieson will approach it is just to build a relationship with them. He's going to have a very respectful approach,” said AARON CUMMINGS, a former Grassley staffer and friend of Greer. “I think he's going to approach it as if he's a member of a Team of Loyals, instead of a Team of Rivals.” MESSAGE US — Are you HOWARD LUTNICK? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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