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By PHELIM KINE
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at the Biden-era efforts on China that President-elect Donald Trump could quickly derail, examine China's growing nuclear arsenal and unpack bills targeting Beijing's role in the U.S. fentanyl overdose crisis. And we profile a book that argues "time is running short" to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off for the next two weeks for the holidays but back to our normal schedule the week of Monday, Jan. 6, 2025.
The 'first casualties' of a new Trump trade war on China
| iStock |
The fragile stability in U.S.-China ties that President Joe Biden has created through two years of outreach to Beijing could come to a screeching halt next month.
If President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threats of new tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports, a number of Biden administration initiatives with China will be "the first casualties of a new trade war," said Jonathan Czin, a former CIA China analyst, now at the Brookings Institution. It would fit Beijing's "go-to play book," Czin said. "They shut down any cooperation that serves U.S. interests when they want to register their ire with our policies."
Those casualties could include any of the 20 U.S.-China working groups and dialogues created or revived during the Biden administration to mitigate key points of friction with Beijing.
Of particular note, however, are four mechanisms that — if China pulls the plug — would likely have a large impact on the U.S. or the incoming Trump administration’s agenda.
Economic and financial working groups
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo launched working groups with their Chinese counterparts to address issues ranging from "protection of trade secrets" to China's "nonmarket practices and industrial overcapacity." Those groups could be tempting targets for a Chinese reprisal against Trump tariffs because the U.S. arguably gains more from them than Beijing does. The groups create communications channels that allow U.S. officials "to simply learn what’s going on in the Chinese economy, which is becoming more opaque," said Christopher Adams, former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department.
The severing of those ties could handicap U.S. efforts to wring timely Chinese cooperation in managing possible future global economic crises. "The U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue during the [2008-2009] financial crisis and the ability it gave us to know what each country’s central bank was doing, to respond and avoid misunderstanding about the moves that were being made was really critical," added Adams, who is now a senior adviser at the Washington law firm Covington & Burlington.
Military-to-military dialogues
The Biden administration revived a series of military information dialogues with Beijing including Military Maritime Consultative Working Group meetings and Defense Policy Coordination Talks. Those allow for information-sharing at a time of high tensions over both Taiwan and Chinese activities in the South China Sea.
But those communication channels are vulnerable to suspension by Beijing because of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s reflexive secrecy regarding how its military operates.
A suspension of those contacts could stoke the potential for conflict in the Indo-Pacific by eliminating the only in-person opportunities for U.S. and Chinese military personnel to "learn about the others’ intentions and capabilities," said Lyle Goldstein, founder of the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute.
Counternarcotics
The Biden administration launched a U.S.-China counternarcotics working group in January to stem the flow of precursor chemicals from China that Mexican cartels process into fentanyl. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that outreach has prodded China into "taking important steps" to curb that trade.
Beijing may be tempted to curtail that because it has "been frustrated that China is not getting credit in the U.S. or in political statements on Capitol Hill for the way cooperation has increased," said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a fellow at Brookings and an expert on China's role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis. If Trump levies his promised tariffs, she said, "We’re probably heading into significant decline or perhaps collapse of [counternarcotics] cooperation."
A rupture in that collaboration could stall or reverse what Felbab-Brown said has been Beijing’s closure of “thousands of websites" that marketed fentanyl precursors to foreign buyers.That could enable the Mexican cartels that purchase and process those precursor chemicals into synthetic opioids to boost production for illicit export into the U.S.
Deportations of Chinese citizens
Trump's China tariff plans could also hamper one of his key campaign promises: the deportation of undocumented foreign citizens. The Biden administration quietly persuaded Beijing to lift its yearslong refusal to accept the return of Chinese citizens who had violated their visa conditions. The Department of Homeland Security estimated in 2021 that there were at least 40,000 such individuals awaiting deportation back to China. DHS said last week that Beijing had accepted four flights over the past six months of Chinese nationals who were in the U.S. illegally.
A Chinese government refusal to accept future deportation flights would be cost-free for Beijing but could be a blemish on Trump's crusade against illegal immigration.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— PENTAGON WARNS ON CHINA'S NUKES: China is considering developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could strike Hawaii, Alaska and the continental U.S., a Pentagon official told reporters Wednesday. The addition of such a missile would help grow China's arsenal from a current level of 300 nuclear weapons to 1,000 by 203o, the official said. Those concerns reflect "Cold War thinking and zero-sum game mentality," said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu. POLITICO's Paul McLeary has the full story here.
The Biden administration persuaded China to commence a dialogue on nuclear nonproliferation last year, but Beijing suspended those talks in July in response to a U.S. arms sale to Taiwan.
— CURBING U.S. INVESTMENT IN CHINA: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has included legislation to restrict U.S investment in China that could benefit its military industrial complex in a three-month stop-gap spending bill. That bill — the Comprehensive Outbound Investment National Security Act — aims to provide the incoming Trump administration "the authority to restrict U.S. capital from flowing into Chinese sectors that directly contributes to the Chinese Communist Party's military and surveillance state," Johnson said in a statement. Congress needs to pass the bill this week to avert a partial government shutdown.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday that the bill would "overstretch the concept of national security" and "obstruct normal economic and trade exchange for political agenda."
— BEIJING BASHES CONGRESSIONAL FENTANYL OFFENSIVE: Beijing has accused lawmakers of "scapegoating" China with new legislation targeting its role in fueling the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic. Those three bills "distort the facts and use disinformation to smear China's counternarcotics efforts" the Foreign Ministry's Lin said Wednesday. Lin urged lawmakers to "cut demand at home" for synthetic opioids rather than blame China.
The House Select Committee on China's fentanyl policy working group unveiled the bipartisan bills on Tuesday in a bid to target specific aspects of the Chinese sources of the precursor chemicals that Mexican cartels process into fentanyl that ends up in the U.S. They include legislation that will create "a coordinated task force" to combat synthetic narcotics trafficking, a bill that will allow for sanctions of Chinese ports or vessels that "knowingly or recklessly facilitate" shipments of illegal synthetic opioids and legislation that will impose civil penalties on Chinese exporters and ports that fail to provide "appropriate transparency and related safeguards" to prevent narcotics trafficking.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
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— 'UNJUSTIFIED' EU SANCTIONS: The Chinese government is denouncing new European Union sanctions on Chinese individuals and entities allegedly supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine. Those sanctions are "unjustified" and penalize "normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian companies," the Foreign Ministry’s Lin said Tuesday. That was a response to a Council of the European Union announcement Monday of new sanctions of 54 people and 30 entities — including "various Chinese actors" supporting Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
— TRUMP LOOMS OVER EU-CHINA TARIFFS: E.U.-China talks on tariffs are in limbo as both sides await details of Trump's trade policies after he takes office next month. "No outcome [of tariff talks] is to be reached until we see Trump in office — we are all waiting to see what is going to be the implementation of all the announcements that he has made concerning tariffs," Spain's Ambassador to China Marta Betanzos Roig said in a speech in Beijing Tuesday, per the South China Morning Post.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
— RIGHTS GROUPS URGE CHINA COMMITTEE'S RENEWAL: What a difference a week makes. A coalition of 63 human rights groups and representatives of "affected communities" sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday urging them to renew the House Select Committee on China in the next Congress. (Spoiler alert – Johnson has already said he'll do precisely that). The committee has set "a global standard in addressing [China's] atrocities … and defending human rights while reinforcing national security and democratic principles," the letter said.
That message is partially a response to a letter that a group of than 50 nonprofit advocacy organizations — the majority representing the interests of Asians, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders — sent Johnson last week demanding he not renew the committee. They said the committee's focus "will lead to a rise in anti-Asian and anti-Chinese sentiment."
This week's letter dismisses that concern by arguing that committee members "have repeatedly emphasized that addressing the Chinese Communist Party's violations must not serve as a pretext for discrimination against Chinese or Asian communities in the U.S."
— REPORT: HONG KONG CHOKING INFORMATION ACCESS: Hong Kong authorities — backed by a national security law that conflates freedom of expression with treason — have severely restricted internet access, media freedom and government transparency in the territory since 2020, according to a new report by the International Republican Institute. Those findings reflect official efforts "to erode the pillars of transparency and free information exchange, marking a stark departure from Hong Kong's long-standing status as a beacon of open access and freedoms in Asia," the report said. Those allegations are "scaremongering" and "fact-twisting," Hong Kong government spokesperson Clare Li said in a statement.
HEADLINES
Mekong Eye: Fruits of spoil: Laos' forests disappearing as fruit farms flourish
Financial Times: How China is setting up shop in Mexico
New York Times: How Elon Musk and Taylor Swift can resolve U.S.-China relations
RFA: New York man pleads guilty to helping run ‘secret Chinese police station'
HEADS UP
— QUAD COAST GUARD EXERCISE IN JANUARY: Coast guard forces of the Quad nations — the U.S., Japan, Australia and India — will hold their first joint training exercise next month, Nikkei-Asia reported Wednesday, citing anonymous Japanese Foreign Ministry officials. The exercises will occur in waters around Japan and will be followed in March by joint exercises of U.S., Japanese and Philippine naval forces, the outlet said.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
| Naval War College Press |
The Book: Chinese Amphibious Warfare: Prospects for a Cross-Strait Invasion (a compilation of expert analyses of how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might unfold)
The Editors: Andrew Erickson is a professor of strategy at the Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute; Conor Kennedy and Ryan Martinson are assistant professors at the Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from this volume?
Xi Jinping can still be deterred from invading Taiwan, but the margin for doing so is decreasing precipitously. Time is running short, and the stakes could scarcely be higher. That's why it's vitally urgent to understand what Xi's ultimate move to take Taiwan might look like, and to double down on defenses to deter him from ever doing so in the first place.
What's the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
Just how challenging it is to achieve a large-scale amphibious invasion — one of the most complex, difficult military operations of all. Success hinges on comprehensive planning, complex command and control architectures, massive force employment, and precise synchronization. It can be thwarted by factors ranging from inclement weather to enemy countermeasures. China lacks experience operating under wartime conditions at that scale.
In 1944 the U.S. military chose not to invade then-Japanese occupied Taiwan because it was too daunting a target. Might Chinese military planners be thinking likewise?
Taiwan's geophysical defenses offer formidable protection and a firm foundation for further fortification. That includes the "moated" Strait itself, weather, tides, currents, mudflats and coastal terrain. Imperial Japan built on these natural advantages to deter America from launching Operation Causeway as its ultimate Pacific island hop. Many lessons remain applicable today, but time is running short because China's military is not only preparing to launch a seaborne invasion against Taiwan, but also a blockade and missile bombardment.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Paul McLeary, Mason Boycott-Owen, Sophie Inge, Dan Bloom and digital producers Emma Cordover and Dean Southwell.
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