Zingers and a pile of votes

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Dec 04, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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In today's edition:

JD VANCE brings the funny on the topic of PIERRE POILIEVRE.

→ A quick guide to the upcoming wave of House votes.

→ Canada, the 51st State?

Talk of the town


D.C. ZINGER — Vice president-elect JD VANCE recently cracked a joke over dinner at the expense of Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE.

At a table that included ELON MUSK, two sources familiar with the conversation said Vance offered this review of Poilievre: "It’s not entirely clear it’s better for us to have a MITT ROMNEY with a French accent as prime minister."

Hey, at least he can name Canada's Conservative leader. JAMIL JIVANI, Vance's law school pal, is a rookie MP in Poilievre's caucus.

— Factcheck: The Tory leader speaks with no hint of a French accent.

— We have questions: Is Vance actually hinting at a preference for JUSTIN TRUDEAU in the PMO? Or is he sowing a little chaos north of the border? What's Jivani's take?

PROGRAMMING NOTE


FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — We are thrilled to welcome MIKE BLANCHFIELD to POLITICO Canada to strengthen our coverage of Canadian policymaking and the Canada-U.S. relationship in these high-stakes days.

Mike is a veteran of Parliament Hill who has reported on a wide range of issues including defense, trade, the environment, climate change, legal affairs and Canada's place in the world.

Mike has covered international affairs extensively for the past three decades for major Canadian news organizations, including the Ottawa Citizen and The Canadian Press. He is a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the past winner of the R. James Travers Foreign Corresponding Fellowship. Read his full bio here.

 

Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.

 
 
DRIVING THE DAY

OPPO DAYS CHEAT SHEET — MPs are staring down a pile of votes.

This time next week, the House will have voted on three opposition motions and more than C$21.6 billion in new spending. Here’s the CliffsNotes:

→ Thursday: Conservative oppo day (with a vote next Monday).

→ Friday: NDP oppo day (with a vote next Monday).

→ Monday: Conservative oppo day (with a vote next Tuesday).

→ Tuesday: Conservative oppo day (with a vote next Tuesday).

→ Tuesday: Votes on the supplementary estimates.

The Tories’ next non-confidence motion is expected to fail on Monday. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH said he’s not going to play the Conservatives’ "games" and bring down the government.

Singh wants to keep expanding dental care and pharmacare, and believes a Conservative government would cut the programs. The New Democrats will also likely vote for the supplementary estimates because they contain funding for the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

What we don’t know: Canada’s fiscal and economic outlook, typically laid out in a Fall Economic Statement. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND dodged four questions on Tuesday about when she'll show the world her next FES.

All we know: Freeland says it'll come out before the end of the year.

Countdown to FES becoming a WES: 17 days until the winter solstice.

Freeland also pledged to publish the annual Public Accounts of Canada — a comprehensive look at every federal dollar spent in 2023-24 — before 2025.

Countdown to New Year’s Eve: 27 days.

PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 21: A Secret Service agent guards the Mar-a-Lago home of former President Donald Trump on March 21, 2023 in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump said on a social media post that he expects to be arrested in connection with an investigation into a hush-money scheme involving adult film actress Stormy Daniels and called on his supporters to protest any such   move. However, it is unclear if he will be arrested or not. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

“It was a social evening," Cabmin Dominic LeBlanc says. "It wasn’t a meeting in a boardroom with 10 bureaucrats keeping notes." | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

CANADA REIMAGINED — After Fox News reported that President-elect DONALD TRUMP mused about annexing Canada as the U.S.’s 51st state in order to avoid tariffs, the Liberal government was quick to point out it was just a joke. 

Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, who attended the Mar-a-Lago dinner where Trump dropped the quip, contextualized Trump’s comments on Tuesday.

“In a three-hour social evening at the president’s residence in Florida on a long weekend of American Thanksgiving, the conversation was going to be lighthearted. The president was telling jokes. The president was teasing us,” LeBlanc said.

“It was a social evening. It wasn’t a meeting in a boardroom with 10 bureaucrats keeping notes. It was a social evening, and there were moments where it was entertaining and funny, and there were moments where we were able to do some good work for Canada.”

— Trump’s trolling us: The incoming POTUS posted a cryptic image on Truth Social.

"Oh Canada!" Trump wrote atop what appeared to be an AI-generated image in which he stood beside a Canadian flag, overlooking a mountain range.

The mountain in the background bore a striking resemblance to the Matterhorn, a notable peak in the Swiss Alps — some 3,800 miles east of Ottawa's Parliament Hill.

Don’t fall for it: GERALD BUTTS, former principal secretary to the PM, posted on LinkedIn that Trump used the “51st State” line “a lot” during his first term.

“He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages,” Butts wrote. “When someone is trying to get you to freak out, don’t.”

We’re not rattled, Gerry, but we are curious how that 51st would look.

Pros: Lower taxes, stronger dollar, larger food portions, better sports, stronger cocktails, Trader Joe’s, cheaper phone plans. And we’ll finally meet our defense spending commitments.

Cons: Having to hear “Y.M.C.A.” by the Village People on repeat, more metal detectors, no universal public health care, fewer holidays, less accessible weed, no ketchup chips, the struggle to enshrine French as an official language.

— Speaking of reimagined: Opposition leaders actually sat down in the same room together (outside of question period) to discuss Canada-U.S. relations.

— Dinner debrief: The PM met with opposition leaders Tuesday to debrief his dinner with Trump.

Trudeau encouraged his counterparts to leverage contacts and sources in the U.S. to relay that tariffs on Canada would also hurt Americans, according to a senior government official familiar with the meeting but granted anonymity to discuss it.

Trudeau cautioned leaders against playing into the hands of Trump by inflaming things he says about Canada, the source said.

Before the meeting ended, opposition leaders were given a chance to raise their concerns.

Here’s each party’s take as they made their way out of the meeting.

Conservatives: Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE demanded the PM “fix the disorder that he’s caused at the border,” and reverse the carbon price and emissions cap on the oil and gas sector.

NDP: Leader JAGMEET SINGH called for at least 1,100 more border workers, and an expansion of the Canada Border Services Agency's mandate to investigate crossings. He accused Poilievre of trying to score political points in the meeting.

Greens: Leader ELIZABETH MAY called the meeting cordial, adding the PM did most of the talking. She agreed with Singh’s assessment of Poilievre.

Bloc Québécois: Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET signaled he would withhold criticism of the government until he heard more details of its plan. “I don’t want to fight too much publicly about an issue, which is very important for everybody, both in Canada and Quebec,” he said. “Americans are looking at us now.”

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend the national caucus meeting then will deliver remarks at a reception for the Team Canada Celebration alongside Sport Minister CARLA QUALTROUGH. Then he will attend question period.

Trudeau also headlines a party fundraiser at the Lord Elgin hotel alongside Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE, Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU and national campaign co-chair TERRY DUGUID.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend caucus. At 4:15 p.m., she will appear before the Senate finance committee to discuss Bill C-78, the Tax Break for All Canadians Act.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will attend his caucus meeting.

— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released his itinerary.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend his caucus meeting. He will hold a media availability before attending question period.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will attend her caucus meeting, followed by meetings with the Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. In the evening she’ll co-host a Youth Climate Corps event.

For your radar

The Bank of Canada is seen.

Time for a rethink at the Bank of Canada? Some senators think so. | Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images

BANK ACCOUNT — The Bank of Canada’s "ancient mandate requires urgent review from Parliament," a Senate committee said in an interim report Tuesday.

The Senate banking committee wants a review before the central bank and the feds renew their agreement on Canada’s monetary policy framework, the report said.

That renewal is set for 2026.

Senators want to "ensure the bank’s monetary policy supports the Canadian economy and offers transparency on inflation rates."

“Geopolitical concerns, pandemics and the energy transition, among other uncertainties, are all testing the global economy and how the Bank of Canada tackles inflation,” Sen. TONY LOFFREDA, deputy chair of the committee, said in a statement.

“Is the 90-year-old legislation that shaped the bank still relevant and effective in the current context? This is a critical question worth answering urgently.”

Calendar


SAVE THE DATE — Playbook is returning to Washington in December. We're hosting our third trivia night in that other nation’s capital.

— Join us for the fun: We're calling all Canada-U.S. geeks to Playbook Trivia on Monday, Dec. 16 at Astro Beer Hall, a space race-themed venue a couple of blocks from the White House. Doors open at 7 p.m. First question at 7:30.

We'll be joined by a special guest quizmaster.

Need a little inspo for your team name? Find it in entrants Can't spell 'neighbour' without 'u' or The Québexperts.

Registration is open. Space is limited. RSVP via this Google Form. Please don't send your RSVP via email. Please do send news tips and gossip.

 

Write your own chapter in the new Washington. From the Lame Duck Congress Series to New Administration insights, POLITICO Pro delivers intelligence across 22+ policy areas to help you anticipate and navigate change. Discover how a Pro subscription empowers you. Learn more today.

 
 
ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR


SEEN AND HEARD — More than 100 protesters staged a short sit-in in the Confederation Building on Tuesday morning over the conflict in the Middle East.

Organizer RACHEL SMALL told Playbook their goal was to interrupt the daily business of Parliament, “by not letting [MPs] walk through these marble hallways while Canadian weapons were continuing to be used to commit horrific violence in Lebanon and Gaza.”

Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY has insisted the federal government has not allowed arms export permits to be sent to Israel since January.

Tuesday's demonstration began around 8:30 a.m., and protesters were kicked out of the building about an hour later. The protest continued outside for several more hours.

Small claimed several people were arrested. But the Parliamentary Protective Service told Playbook 14 individuals were “intercepted and released without charges” by its officers. They were provided with trespass warnings, PPS said in a statement. Some individuals were referred to the Ottawa Police Service.

— No fence here: While West Block, Centre Block and East Block sit behind physical barriers along Wellington Street, the Confederation and Justice buildings to the west remain relatively easy to access. Protesters simply walked in, Small said.

MEDIA ROOM

— Top of CBC News: South Korean opposition parties submit motion to impeach President YOON SUK YEOL over martial law order

The Toronto Star reports: JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s "carbon tax" is "wrong," Ontario Liberal Leader BONNIE CROMBIE says.

— "RCMP considers deploying rookie Mounties to help safeguard Canadian border," report The Globe and Mail's BOB FIFE and STEPHANIE LEVITZ.

— “President Joe Biden did not just protect his son,” write POLITICO’s KYLE CHENEY and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN. “He also handed President-elect Donald Trump a template to shield his own allies and stretch the pardon power even further.”

— The New Yorker’s JANE MAYER details the latest allegations and “secret history” of PETE HEGSETH, Trump's nominee for U.S. defense secretary. POLITICO reports the president-elect is now considering RON DESANTIS for the job.

— In case you need it: Our colleagues who write POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook have a list of all the new commissioners’ most trusted staffers.

PROZONE


For POLITICO subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and MICKEY DJURIC: Joly says Canada put Arctic on Trump’s agenda. 

And the latest headlines:

Congress readies another funding punt ahead of pre-Christmas shutdown deadline.

International court examines faltering climate action.

Arctic could see its first ice-free day within 3 years.

Inspector: Weak pipeline rules put ‘profit over safety.’

TikTok removed 3 influence campaigns during Romania’s elections.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: Bon anniversaire to Sen. CLAUDE CARIGNAN, leadership comms consultant BARRY MCLOUGHLIN, former Liberal MP WILL AMOS and the always stellar ROBERTA BONDAR.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way.

Spotted: Former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER, hanging out this holiday season with former Governor General MICHAËLLE JEAN, former Prime Minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN and former NDP Leader THOMAS MULCAIR.

Noted: Manitoba Premier WAB KINEW announced Wednesday his province's intention to open a permanent office in Washington — an idea Kinew previously mulled in an interview with Playbook. "We've got to do what some of our neighbors are doing, which is to go out and sing for your supper and bring the economic activity home," he said in July.

Media mentions: ELIZABETH HOWELL is now at The Globe and Mail as a content editor.

ON THE HILL

Find the latest House meetings here. The Senate schedule is here.

4:15 p.m. The Senate foreign affairs committee will spend its first hour focused on Canada’s interests and engagement in Africa.

4:15 p.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee will focus on Bill C-321.

4:15 p.m. The Senate social affairs committee will study Bill C-71.

4:30 p.m. Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER will be at the House fisheries committee meeting on supplementary estimates.

4:30 p.m. CAROL OFF and MICHELLE SHEPHARD are on the witness roster at the House heritage committee, which is studying the protection of the freedom of expression.

4:30 p.m. The House status of women committee will spend its first hour and 20 minutes focused on hate-motivated violence.

4:30 p.m. MAIREAD LAVERY, president and CEO of Export Development Canada, will be at the House public accounts committee to discuss the AG’s findings on the Canada Emergency Business Account.

Behind closed doors: The House international trade committee will focus on two reports: one on supply chains, the other on 2026 USMCA review. The House natural resources committee will work on its upcoming report on Canada’s clean energy plans. The Senate audit and oversight committee will also gather.

TRIVIA


Tuesday’s answer: In December 1997, 122 countries gathered to sign the “Ottawa Treaty.” LLOYD AXWORTHY led the charge. Kenya signed the day after the conference ended.

All or part marks to GEOFFREY CHAMBERS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ADAM ENKIN, RAY DEL BIANCO, JIM CAMPBELL, KATIE FEENAN, ALEXANDER LANDRY, BOB PLAMONDON, NANCI WAUGH, JOHN DILLON, MARCEL MARCOTTE, PATRICK DION, CHRIS RANDS, LAURA JARVIS, BOB RICHARDSON, JOHN DILLON, DOUG RICE, BOB PLAMONDON, JOHN ALHO, MELISSA COTTON and GANGA WIGNARAJAH.

Wednesday’s question via J.D.M. STEWART: Who was the Canadian woman to have a husband and son serving in the Senate at the same time?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to advertise in Ottawa Playbook? Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

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Mike Blanchfield @ @mblanchfield

Mickey Djuric @MickeyDjuric

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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