| | | | |  | | By Mickey Djuric and Nick Taylor-Vaisey |
Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada
Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → 53 days until Liberals pick a new leader. → Canada’s premiers gather in Ottawa, maybe to unite. → Behind recent shifts in immigration policy. |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | |  Mark Carney is expected to announce his bid to lead the Liberal Party on Thursday. | AP | ELECTION WATCH — MARK CARNEY seems to think the timing of the next election will "likely be the choice of the current governing party." As he bantered with JON STEWART during a 20-minute appearance on "The Daily Show," the former central banker and future Liberal leadership contender appeared to suggest the Liberals could outflank the opposition and go to the polls before Parliament returns. — End Times buffet: The dominant fishbowl view holds that the new prime minister's government would fall in a confidence vote shortly after Parliament returns on March 24. That first week back would be a minefield for a government that could conceivably topple on a Throne Speech vote, an opposition motion or a supply bill that approves federal funding. Barring last-ditch NDP support — more on that later in Playbook — there'd be no saving the governing gang. — Unless: The Liberals could take the power away from the opposition and pull the plug first. Carney, who's expected to launch his leadership bid this week, didn't appear to misspeak when he mused about an election call before the House's scheduled return. — Non, merci: Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is the latest to add his name to the list of Liberals who don’t want Trudeau’s job — at least not at this juncture. “I will dedicate my energy to defend Canada, to defend Canadians, to defend Canadian businesses,” Champagne said Tuesday in Toronto. “It was probably one of the most difficult decisions in my life, but I think it's the right one at the right time.” — Digital footprints: The Hill Times' STUART BENSON spotted a website purporting to be gathering names on behalf of MARK CARNEY. … Meanwhile, votefreeland.ca was registered on Jan. 6 — the same day PMJT announced his resignation. A source familiar with the campaign confirmed it's not an official site … JONATHAN WILKINSON's website, which was packed with content as recently as Christmas Eve, is now password-protected. PREMIER PRIME TIME — All eyes will be on Team Canada today, and whether or not they play nice, as premiers and their federal counterparts discuss their strategy to counter President-elect DONALD TRUMP’s tariff threats. Ahead of the confab, Finance Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC made the case for national unity. “Next week we think we’ll know the precise details of what these tariffs will mean to the Canadian economy, and we’ll be ready of course to respond from a position of strength — and we hope as a unified country,” LeBlanc said in Toronto on Tuesday. — Team Canada spirals: Premiers and the federal government have abandoned attempts to present a unified message to Americans, and frankly, to Canadians. They have yet to agree on the best path forward when it comes to retaliatory tariffs. At this rate, Trump won’t need to divide and conquer. — Region vs. region: Premiers DANIELLE SMITH and SCOTT MOE are warning there will be a “national unity crisis” if Ottawa leverages Canadian oil in its response. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD and LeBlanc want all the options on the table. “That’s Danielle Smith, she’s speaking for Alberta. She’s not speaking for the country. I’m speaking for Ontario that’s going to get hurt a lot more,” Ford said to the Toronto Star. CBC News reports that B.C. Premier DAVID EBY is hinting B.C. could slap an export ban on critical minerals. — Busy thumbs: Meanwhile, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is cooking up around-the-clock social media posts about the Los Angeles wildfires, designed to demonstrate that Canada is a good neighbor. Then you have members of the Liberal government, including Minister MARC MILLER, accusing Smith of selling out Canada’s interests during her visit to Mar-a-Lago with businessperson KEVIN O’LEARY — who himself is advising Trump world not to listen to Trudeau and his Cabinet. — 10 weeks: The time that’s passed since the Liberal government first insisted everything is fine heading into Trump 2.0. — Border talk: Miller and Public Safety Minister DAVID MCGUINTY have called a press conference this morning where they will tout their border plan. Ford praised the strategy on Tuesday while drawing a blank on the minister responsible for it. “I don’t know him,” Ford said of McGuinty. “I wouldn’t know him if he walked through the door right now.” — All in the family: Ford might remember DALTON MCGUINTY. David's older brother and former premier beat three of Ford's predecessors as PC leader. The younger McGuinty was MP for all but a few months of that provincial Liberal dynasty. |  Canada's foreign minister and energy minister are in D.C. today. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | CABINET ROAD TRIP — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON are in Washington to shore up last-minute meetings ahead of DONALD TRUMP’s return. — Energy minister’s pitch: Wilkinson, who is considering a run for Liberal leadership, is hoping to convince Americans that tariffs on energy and resources imported into the U.S. will ultimately increase business costs and American household bills. Refiners have said tariffs could cause U.S. gasoline prices to spike because many rely on imports of crude products from Canada. — Quote of note: “The American Dream is defined by strength around the world and a good life at home — but without Canadian partnership, this is nothing but a dream. In the face of some of history’s biggest challenges to the world as we know it, we are not only better together, but destructive when distanced,” his office said in a statement ahead of his trip. — Meetings with Republicans: Wilkinson has so far met with Sens. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.), TED CRUZ (R-Tex.) and KEVIN CRAMER (R-ND) and dined with "folks" from the energy and mining industries. He has more meetings lined up today. Today, Wilkinson meets with Rep. CHUCK FLEISCHMANN (R-Tenn.) and Rep. BRUCE WESTERMAN (R-Ark.), the chair of the House Natural Resources Committee. — Media blitz: Wilkinson will sit down with POLITICO, The Associated Press, Financial Times, The Hill, CNBC and The Economist. Joly will head to D.C. after today's meeting in Ottawa with the premiers. — Inauguration Day: Ministers FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and MARY NG will represent Canada on Monday. (Ng will also be in New York tomorrow.) Both are expected to miss the Liberals' winter Cabinet retreat in Quebec, which starts the same day as Trump's inauguration. The retreat's focus: Canada-U.S. relations.
| | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will meet with leaders of national Indigenous organizations. At 11 a.m., he will chair the First Ministers’ Meeting. At 3 p.m., he will hold a media availability with Canadian Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN in attendance.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE headlines a 4 p.m. local time party fundraiser at the Paradox Hotel in Vancouver, where the Grand Ballroom fits up to 500 attendees — and is described online as a "landscape of design perfection." — Playbook has no line of sight into public itinerary of Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will join a picket line in Kanata, Ont. with NDP Candidate for Ottawa Centre JOEL HARDEN to support workers at a medical device manufacturing facility. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY plans to meet with her caucus this morning. Later this afternoon, she’ll be a guest speaker in a Grade 11 class at Claremont Secondary School in Victoria. | | | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | | | SPRING VOTE — JAGMEET SINGH offered clarity right before the holidays, committing to voting non-confidence in the Liberal government at the first opportunity. As Playbook has gamed out, a spring election called under those circumstances would likely fall on May 5 or May 12. — But wait: Léger's latest polling shows NDP voters aren't in a rush to vote. A new survey reveals that a slim majority of the party's supporters — 53 percent — want the next federal election to be held in October, as scheduled by the fixed-date election law. Only 30 percent prefer a spring vote. Food for thought in the NDP caucus room.
| | LEADERSHIP RACE | | NEW RULES — The Liberal Party revealed candidate spending and debt limits, a payment schedule for the leadership race's C$350,000 entry fee, and sanctions for rule breakers in a late Monday release. Here are the technical details. — Spending limit: C$5 million — Debt limit: C$200,000 at any given time — Payment deadlines: A refundable entry fee payment of C$50,000 by Jan. 23; a non-refundable payment of C$50,000 by Jan. 30; a non-refundable payment of C$125,000 by Feb, 7; and a non-refundable payment of C$125,000 due by Feb. 17. — Contributions tithe: Candidates will be subject to a "weekly retention by the party" worth 25 percent of contributions over C$500,000.
| | | PAPER TRAIL | | |
FRAYING CONSENSUS — Leger Marketing dropped a sobering set of survey data on MARC MILLER's immigration department last summer. The government, which commissioned the polling, has since published the results in an online repository — and the trends could help explain recent policy shifts.
— A widening gap: Leger's first question in a November 2023 wave of 2,279 interviews — timed to the government's release of an immigration levels plan — asked broadly about the number of immigrants in Canada. Here's how they replied. → Too few: 7 percent → About the right number: 34 percent → Too many: 47 percent In June 2024, the pollster asked another 2,253 respondents the same question — and the graph had diverged substantially. → Too few: 4 percent → About the right number: 29 percent → Too many: 59 percent In June, 63 percent of respondents said the federal goal of 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 was too high. Only one in four said it was "about the right number." — Top anxieties: Thirty-two percent of June respondents listed housing as a chief concern. Another 14 percent blamed competition for jobs between immigrants and existing citizens. Strain on the healthcare system ranked third at 10 percent. Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) believed immigration had a negative impact on the housing market and even more (74 percent) felt that way about the availability of housing. A similar proportion (65 percent) felt the same way about healthcare. Conversely, 49 percent said immigrants had a positive impact on Canadian businesses — against only 20 percent with a negative view. — The official response: Miller's office told Playbook public polling is a "helpful tool" in understanding Canadian attitudes. "In addition to robust consultation with stakeholders, conversations with experts, Minister Miller has been clear on the importance of listening to Canadians and taking their concerns into account when it comes to policy exercises like the [Immigration] Levels Plan or measures like the international students cap," read a statement from his office. The regularly commissioned surveys are shared both within the department and across government, as well as with provinces and territories, service providers, and researchers, the statement said. — The minister's view: When Leger was in the field last June, Miller acknowledged in an interview with POLITICO that emotional conversations about spiking immigration and the housing crunch had entered the Liberal caucus room. Those conversations “can be quite heated,” he said. “That’s just the nature of the beast. Caucus is a bit of a lung. You’ve got to let it breathe.” Miller insisted immigration's impact on housing was more complex than the public narrative. “It’s the old joke that 100 percent of people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying. Yes, there’s a correlation and the volume of people is undeniable. It’d be naive to pretend that volume wasn’t impacting housing. But there’s so many other factors,” he says. — A clear trend: Canadians were drawing their own conclusions. Leger quizzed them on the effect of immigration on their neighborhoods, cities or towns, provinces or territories, and Canada more broadly. At every level, respondents' negativity increased by several points between November and June. For instance, 29 percent described a negative effect at the provincial level in the first survey wave, trailing the 46 percent with a positive view. Several months later, positive and negative sentiment tied at 38 percent. — Immigration as identity: In the November 2023 wave, 61 percent agreed with the statement: "I am proud of Canada's reputation as an open and welcoming society." By June, that majority view had fallen to 56 percent. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | | 
Pete Hegseth’s nomination hearing on Tuesday was expected to deliver fireworks — and it didn’t disappoint. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | — From POLITICO's JACK DETSCH and SAM SKOVE: Seven wild moments from PETE HEGSETH's hearing. — NEIL MOSS in The Hill Times reports: Hosting G7 summit will be first global test for a new PM. — The Ottawa Citizen just launched “Public Service Confidential,” a workplace advice column for public servants. — "What the Liberals are missing is that Poilievre is the only one speaking to the economic pain Canadians are facing," ERICA IFILL writes in The Hill Times. "But what they took from plummeting polls is that the party was too 'woke.'" — POLITICO’s SEB STARCEVIC reports on the PM of Australia’s message for ELON MUSK: Don’t meddle in our election. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD.
In other news for Pro readers: — U.S. Supreme Court clears path for climate lawsuits against Big Oil. — SEC hits Elon Musk with lawsuit in final salvo. — Commerce finalizes rule banning 'connected' cars from China, Russia. — Biden issues order to boost data centers with clean power on federal lands. — Thousands of scientists urge Congress to protect research from Trump. — UK bans German livestock imports after foot-and-mouth outbreak. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to former MPs SHARON HAYES and MURRAY CALDER.
HBD + 1 to Conservative MP SCOTT AITCHISON. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it our way. Spotted: Magna International and Vancouver Shipyards, both posting January meetings with the PM in the lobbyist registry. Noted: The Conservative Party has nominated 221 candidates out of 343. The party sent Playbook an updated count on Tuesday … Global Affairs Canada unveiled Canada's official G-7 presidency website. The leaders' summit is planned for June 15-17. The site's intro text hints at potential themes: international peace and security, global economic stability and growth, and the digital transition. Movers and shakers: ALEX SPENCE departs Loyalist Public Affairs for a new gig as TD Bank's senior manager of government relations … Federal Conservatives nominated former provincial Cabinet minister JANICE MORLEY-LECOMTE as the candidate in Winnipeg South — where she'll take on Liberal national campaign co-chair TERRY DUGUID ... MARTY VON WUTHENAU joins Earnscliffe Strategies as president of public affairs. Media mentions: Three former PM staffers, TYLER MEREDITH, DAN ARNOLD and VANDANA KATTAR have launched an eight-week limited podcast series — “Race to Replace" — on the Liberal leadership race … The Logic's executive editor, APRIL FONG, is leaving that newsroom. | | TRIVIA | |
Tuesday’s answer: JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD was appointed veterans affairs minister on Jan. 14, 2019.
Props to MARK AGNEW, BOB RICHARDSON, BILL WATSON, MARCEL MARCOTTE, MARY JANE ALLAN, MICHAEL POWELL, JOHN MATHESON, BRANDON RABIDEAU, GORDON RANDALL, LAURA JARVIS, JOHN DILLON, RODDY MCFALL, LAURE HOURDEBAIGT, CHRISTOPHER LAWTON, LIZ THOMPSON, NANCI WAUGH, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, ALEXANDER LANDRY, CAMERON RYAN, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN MERRIMAN, ADAM SMITH and FRANCIS DOWNEY. Wednesday’s question: Which Canadian prime minister was a Nobel Peace Prize winner for his role in solving the Suez Crisis of 1956? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to advertise in Ottawa Playbook? Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
