Biden admin's global AI chip regime

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Jan 13, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

With help from Doug Palmer and Ben Leonard

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo speaks in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, DC, on October 29, 2024.

The Biden administration’s Commerce Department announced sweeping global export controls targeting AI technology. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

QUICK FIX

— The Commerce Department unveiled sweeping global export controls aimed at safeguarding technology commonly used in artificial intelligence technology.

— Canadian and Mexican officials are using a carrot and stick approach to convince President-elect Donald Trump to drop plans for a 25 percent tariff on their exports to the U.S.

— Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are voicing concerns over supposed action from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to quietly renegotiate provisions of trade deals.

It’s Monday, Jan. 13. Welcome to Morning Trade. Got news tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a coffee? Hit us up at: ahawkins@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. Follow us on X: @_AriHawkins and @tradereporter.

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Driving the day

NEW AI WORLD ORDER: The Biden administration’s Commerce Department this morning is rolling out what could be its final major action to keep the world's most advanced AI technology out of the hands of foreign adversaries like China.

The interim final rule would overhaul the U.S. export control regime by implementing a three tiered system of restrictions for American allies and adversaries alike, including caps on the sale of chips commonly used in AI technology to most countries.

Under the rule, a small group of approved nations will not face new curbs on imports of advanced AI chips or certain closed AI model weights, which process data using proprietary methods. But the vast majority of countries will see new curbs on computing technology originating from the U.S. that can be imported. Another group of mostly U.S. adversaries are effectively restricted from accessing the most advanced chips.

Some context: The rule was the subject of intense wrangling between global tech giants and Washington's China hawks which spilled out into the public spotlight in the days and weeks leading up to the announcement. The guidelines come days before President Joe Biden leaves office, teeing up Donald Trump’s administration to either pursue or abandon the measure.

“In its last days in office, the Biden Administration seeks to undermine America’s leadership with a 200+ page regulatory morass, drafted in secret and without proper legislative review,” Ned Finkle, Vice President of Government Affairs, of U.S. chip-giant NVIDIA, said in a statement. “This sweeping overreach would impose bureaucratic control over how America’s leading semiconductors, computers, systems, and even software are designed and marketed globally.”

That scrutiny is shared by some lawmakers. Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said the “misguided approach” threatens to cripple innovation in a statement: “Worse, the Biden [administration] is exploiting an emergency carveout to bypass standard transparency and accountability procedures to try and jam President Trump and his team.”

On the other side are China hawks:

Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), chair and ranking member of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party praised the rule and said they “strongly believe the United States needs a global answer to the [People's Republic of China]’s global circumvention efforts,” they wrote in a letter to Raimondo in January.

Americans for Responsible Innovation, an advocacy group focused on AI, noted the jockeying in a statement celebrating the effort to close loopholes China uses to access U.S. technology.

“Big Tech is going to whine and moan about the new framework, but at the end of the day, stopping the rapid advancement of AI technology for U.S. adversaries is a national security imperative. This is so much bigger than a Silicon Valley issue,” said ARI President Brad Carson.

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Around the World

CANADA, MEXICO PUSH TO AVERT TARIFFS: Top Canadian and Mexican officials are using a carrot and stick approach to persuade President-elect Donald Trump not to impose a 25 percent tariff on their exports to the United States.

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly is expected in Washington this week for more meetings with incoming Trump administration officials.

That follows conversations she has already had with Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and others, Joly told reporters Friday, before she headed off to a meeting in Ottawa to discuss what retaliation Canada would impose on the United States if Trump makes good on his threat.

“These folks are officially starting on Jan. 20, but the reality is their action plan is already ready,” Joly said. “And so that’s why [we] have to be ready.”

However, Canada has also been working to persuade Trump that it takes his concerns about illegal immigration and cross-border fentanyl shipments seriously, even though Canada’s role in these issues is much smaller than Mexico’s.

Last month, Joly and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc traveled to Mar-a-Lago to brief the incoming team on Canada’s Border Plan.

Mexican view: In Mexico City on Friday, Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard voiced hope of reaching a deal with Trump. He noted the incoming president threatened tariffs on Mexico over immigration during his first term and did not follow through. He also argued Trump would hurt U.S. economic growth and reignite inflation if he does impose tariffs.

Like Canada, Mexico plans to retaliate if Trump imposes tariffs, a point Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum made in a letter to Trump in November.

Since then, Sheinbaum has spoken with Trump twice “to reaffirm the importance of collaboration,” a spokesperson for the Mexican Embassy said in an email to Morning Trade.

On the Hill

HALT ISDS DISCUSSIONS: A bipartisan group of 26 lawmakers on Thursday sent a letter to President Joe Biden expressing concern over supposed efforts from USTR to scrap investor-state dispute settlement provisions in free trade deals with Mexico and Colombia.

The ISDS mechanism allows a foreign company to sue a host government over a regulation or action that has supposedly harmed its investment in the country. Scrapping it, the lawmakers claim, would undermine U.S. national interests. They also criticized USTR for failing to consult Congress.

The lawmakers wrote: “We believe that unilaterally removing this issue from discussion at the eleventh hour of an outgoing administration would negatively impact the ability of the next Administration to secure a positive outcome in the bilateral relationship with Mexico.”

One step back: The letter comes on the heels of reports accusing USTR of quietly renegotiating investment provisions in trade deals without consulting Congress or outside stakeholders.

Twelve Republicans on the House Ways and Means committee sent a similar message in a letter to USTR Katherine Tai on Friday, asking her to “halt any lame- duck negotiations” with foreign countries on ISDS or other trade and investment issues.

TRUMP’S NOMS IN MOTION: Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz told POLITICO that the confirmation of Trump’s Commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, will take place "expeditiously." But he declined to elaborate when asked if there are any holdups.

TRADE OVERNIGHT

Colin Brainard, a former tax expert on Capitol Hill, is joining Alpine Group as vice president. He will advise clients on trade issues ahead of tax debates in 2025.

— Import cargo is poised to remain elevated in January because of potential increases in tariffs, according to the Global Port Tracker report.

— Supreme Court seems reluctant to overturn TikTok ban, POLITICO reports.

— California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes $25 million boost for semiconductor center amid CHIPS Act threats, POLITICO Pro reports.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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