| | | | |  | | By Mickey Djuric, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mike Blanchfield | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Happy Friday, let’s get to it: → DANIELLE SMITH picks a fight with Canada. → On JAGMEET SINGH’s itinerary: A date with BERNIE SANDERS. → Hallway Conversation with New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT. If you're headed to DONALD TRUMP's inauguration, find Playbook for a coffee and a conversation about [gestures at everything]. Drop us a line. |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | | 
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said U.S. President Donald Trump should “send a big bouquet of flowers to the Liberal government.” | AFP via Getty Images | BLAME GAME — PIERRE POILIEVRE arrived in British Columbia on Thursday with some Day One advice for the president-elect. “The first thing that President Trump should do when he gets into the Oval Office is to send a big bouquet of flowers to the Liberal government in Ottawa,” the Conservative leader said in Delta, B.C. “By blocking pipelines and LNG plants in Canada, the Liberals have forced Canadians to sell almost all of our energy to the United States, giving President Trump massive leverage in making these tariff threats.” — Next question: With an Alberta-sized hole in Canada’s Trump strategy, Poilievre is refusing to say if he thinks oil should be used as a bargaining chip — by either cutting off energy to the U.S. or imposing export tariffs. At a news conference in Windsor, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU suggested Poilievre has two choices: Align with the premiers and the federal government or “stand with DANIELLE SMITH, KEVIN O'LEARY and, ultimately, DONALD TRUMP.” CHRYSTIA FREELAND, who is poised to enter the Liberal leadership race, also piped up. “I stand together with all of Canada in the face of Donald Trump's threats,” she shared on X. "@PierrePoilievre: are you going to stand up for Canada, or stand with Danielle Smith?” TRUDEAU VS. SMITH — With just a weekend until Inauguration Day, the PM and most premiers have rallied behind a “country first” campaign. And then there is Alberta's premier. After a chaotic couple of weeks, the premiers emerged all-for-one from a day-long meeting with Trudeau on Wednesday — all except for the populist Conservative leader of the energy-rich province of Alberta. Smith announced that she is not able to support a retaliation strategy that includes Alberta oil and gas. On Thursday she doubled down. ”Stop threatening the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Albertans & Canadians via an energy export tax or ban,” she said in a defiant X post. — Shots fired: In response, Trudeau pointed to the federal government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline. “That was an investment that all Canadians made, that the Alberta government is making billions of dollars off of. That’s an example of all Canadians standing up for Alberta and getting it done. So, yes, premiers should be advocating for their own industries . . . their own communities, but they should also put their country first, as every single premier — except Danielle Smith — did,” Trudeau said. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON told reporters from Washington that Smith’s comments are making it a challenge to convey Canada’s position. “I had American industry folks saying to me that they felt the fact that they are hearing, sometimes, different messages from the Government of Alberta than what they hear from the Government of Canada is not helpful,” Wilkinson said. The Globe and CTV News are reporting via government sources that the federal government will be ready on Monday to unveil details of its first round of proposed retaliatory tariffs. — For the record: The Sun’s RICK BELL writes: “Danielle Smith is not a traitor and Albertans aren’t either.” TRUMP’S TARIFF THREAT — Based on his Washington meetings, Wilkinson said he thinks Trump’s tariffs could roll out in stages. “There’s the 25 percent option. There is simply a 10 percent across the board ... And then there’s a discussion that was happening the last few days about tariffs starting lower and then ratcheting up over time.” He said Trump’s executive orders — even on those tariffs — are being developed by a small group in the incoming Trump’s administration. “Even Republican senators and Congress people and others who are quite close to the administration do not have a good read on exactly what the nature of a tariff might look like.” — Also in D.C.: Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is also wrapping up a Washington visit. On Thursday she met with Republican Sens. JIM RISCH (Idaho) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (S.C.) and Senate Democrat JEANNE SHAHEEN (N.H.) In the evening she met with U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN. She’s expected to discuss her trip with the media today. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be in the GTA to chair a meeting of the Council on Canada-U.S. Relations. He will participate in a roundtable with the Canadian Automotive Partnership Council and tour a local automotive part manufacturing plant.
— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will be on Zoom call with Vermont Sen. BERNIE SANDERS. They'll discuss Trump’s tariffs threat and how it could impact jobs and costs on both sides of the border. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will host a constituency meeting in Sidney, B.C. | | LEADERSHIP RACE | |
'CHANGE' CANDIDATE — It's by now clear that as MARK CARNEY campaigns aggressively against PIERRE POILIEVRE's rhetoric, he'll sprinkle pointed criticisms of the Trudeau government into his stump speeches.
The Conservatives have already launched an ad painting Carney as Trudeau 2.0. The former central banker is out to prove he's not that. Some attempted differentiation at Carney's Liberal leadership launch in Edmonton: → "The system, it's not working as it should. And it's not working as it could. People are anxious. No wonder. Too many are falling behind. Too many young people can't afford a home. Too many people can't find a doctor." → "I'm not the only Liberal in Canada who believes that the prime minister and his team let their attention wander from the economy too often. I won't lose focus." → "Our growth has been too slow. People's wages are too low. Necessities like groceries and rent are too expensive for too many. The federal government spends too much, but it invests too little. Middle-class taxes are too high. And we're not yet ready for the AI revolution and the energy transition work for all Canadians." — Hint, hint: Sure sounds like Carney is planning to pitch a middle-class tax cut. — Potted plants: Eight MPs from three provinces and a territory joined the human backdrop: GEORGE CHAHAL, BRENDAN HANLEY, SUKH DHALIWAL, RANDEEP SARAI, ALI EHSASSI, SAMEER ZUBERI, SHAFQAT ALI and SALMA ZAHID. → Also in the room: Former Edmonton mayor DON IVESON. — The Globe’s review: “Mr. Carney had a slow start.” — Credit check: MetCredit president and CEO, BRIAN SUMMERFELT, snarked Carney's choice of logo — a stylized red 'M' over a white maple leaf that bears a striking resemblance to the collection agency's own branding. — In related news: Bloomberg reports that Carney has resigned from Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and a number of other roles.
| | Talk of the town | |
2025 PREDICTIONS — Playbook is asking politicos to pronounce on their predictive prowess in a show of sagacious speculation. We'll roll out their forecasts in a pair of Playbooks next week as you acclimatize to the coming chaos of 2025.
— Play along with the pros: Our survey includes 10 questions that'll test your powers of prognostication. Click here to take the survey. Your deadline is the end of the day. | | PAPER TRAIL | | | 
T-minus 3 days until Trump 2.0. | Evan Vucci/AP | TRUMP 2.0 101 — Senior federal bureaucrats gathered behind closed doors last month for a crash course on how Washington works as DONALD TRUMP's second term edged nearer. The Canada School of Public Service ran a day-long seminar moderated by CHRIS SANDS, a go-to cross-border brain who leads the Wilson Center's Canada Institute in Washington. — On the docket: Sands led 60-75 minute discussions on Dec. 2 with four visitors from the south. Playbook obtained the day's agenda via an access-to-information request. The meeting was held under the Chatham House rule. Here's what we can tell you about Ottawa's syllabus heading into Trump 2.0. → The Oval Office: Squire Patton Boggs partner EVERETT EISSENSTAT, deputy director of the National Economic Council during Trump 1.0, focused on presidential appointments ("especially Cabinet and independent agencies") and "the role and (expanding) use of executive orders." → The civil service: Wilson Center public policy fellow ROBERT JENKINS, a former assistant to the USAID administrator, dug into the civil service's "state of institutional knowledge regarding Canada" and the impact of incoming political appointees on the bilateral relationship. → Congress and the states: AARON JONES, the director of legislative outreach and strategic initiatives at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, untangled the shifting priorities of the Senate and House of Representatives — as well as "relevant governorships." → Mis/disinfo: KELLEE WICKER, the director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Wilson Center, unpacked the "nature and impacts" of misinformation and disinformation on the U.S. election — and added lessons for Canada. — Inquiring minds: The CSPS tells Playbook that 28 bureaucrats — a mix of deputy ministers and their executive teams — took in the sessions "from different government departments with a wide range of portfolio responsibilities." | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
Up: “Patriotic haberdashery,” thanks to Ontario Premier DOUG FORD who showed up in Ottawa sporting a “CANADA IS NOT FOR SALE” cap.
Down: Canada's federal consumer carbon price, doomed if PIERRE POILIEVRE takes office and reportedly on the chopping block even if Liberal leadership contenders CHRYSTIA FREELAND or MARK CARNEY have their druthers. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | |
MARITIMER'S VIEW — POLITICO sat down with New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT on the sidelines of Wednesday's high-stakes first ministers' meeting in Ottawa.
We quizzed her on the transition to power last October in deeply uncertain times and the need for stability in Ottawa — to the extent possible amid a Liberal leadership race and looming election — as Canada stares down Trump's massive tariff threat. — On taking office: "The craziness of a campaign is a lot more than the craziness of leading the province, actually. Sleeping in my own bed a lot of nights now. I have an amazing team as support, as opposed to volunteers that you're hoping will show up. That stability is hard to quantify, but my kids feel it. They don't have question marks now about what happens after Oct. 21. Now they can calm down and chill out." — On continuity from Ottawa: "I'm really glad that DOMINIC LEBLANC is going to continue on in his role. I think that's good for Canada, because these tariff threats are exceptionally serious, and it would have been a terrible time to change our chief negotiator and the leader on the file. "I've called for consistency in the negotiating table on tariffs, because clearly we can't have consistency in the political leadership — even with Dominic, he's going to be facing an election at some point in the coming months, likely before the tariff issue has been resolved.” | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— From NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and JORDAN WOLMAN: The fight to replace Trudeau is on.
— A B.C. ski resort that hosted the PM over the holidays is fighting back misinformation after viral posts claimed his trip was disruptive to locals. A representative for RED Mountain Resort told CBC’s CHAD PAWSON and ALYA RAMADAN that Trudeau “was very low-key, respectful, and waited in line like everyone else.” — POLITICO reports: U.S. President Joe Biden will commute the sentences of nearly 2,500 non-violent drug offenders in one of his final official actions before leaving office. — In an exit interview with POLITICO Magazine, U.S. Secretary of Transportation PETE BUTTIGIEG discusses post-truth politics. “We’ve never had more information coming at us and yet, never in my lifetime have we been less informed about what’s going on.” — The Star reports that Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is suggesting he needs a new mandate. SHAWN JEFFORDS of CBC News notes that Ontario political parties are scrambling to prepare ahead of a possible early election. — From the Globe’s MARK RENDELL: Bank of Canada poised to end quantitative tightening.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: Oh happy day to Liberal MP KODY BLOIS, former Sen. RENÉE DUPUIS and MARY ANNE CARTER of Earnscliffe.
Saturday: Liberal MP SEAMUS O’REGAN and People’s Party of Canada Leader MAXIME BERNIER. Sunday: Former premier and ambassador FRANK MCKENNA, born on this day in 1948. Former federal and provincial politician JOHN REYNOLDS also celebrates. PRINCESS MARGRIET OF THE NETHERLANDS was born on this day at the Ottawa Civic Hospital. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets. Movers and shakers: Joining the PM’s new council on Canada-U.S. relations are JEAN CHAREST, RACHEL NOTLEY, STEPHEN MCNEIL, DAVID MACNAUGHTON, STEVE VERHEUL, ARLENE DICKINSON, LINDA HASENFRATZ, LANA PAYNE, JODY THOMAS, FLAVIO VOLPE, TABATHA BULL. SHAHRZAD RAFATI, HASSAN YUSSUFF, WES HALL, MARTIN CARON, BRIAN TOPP, TIM GITZEL and KIRSTEN HILLMAN. LESLIE CHURCH joined Proof Strategies as a senior counselor. Spotted: Conservative MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, celebrating a milestone for surpassing 100,000 subscribers on YouTube … Former Finance Minister BILL MORNEAU, drawing a crowd at an Acadia University Q&A hosted by ALEX MARLAND. — In mid-month lobbying disclosures: The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers filed a meeting with Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG … AARON WUDRICK, policy director to PIERRE POILIEVRE, popped up in filings with Queen's University, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, Bombardier, General Motors, FCA Canada and Ford … PMO senior adviser BEN CHIN met with the same automakers, as well as Pembina Pipeline. QVI Strategies and Climate Action Network Canada … PM TRUDEAU appeared in postings from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs and Inter Pares.
| | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD.
In other Pro headlines: — Biden passes TikTok hot potato to Trump. — Biden administration proposes nutrition labels for alcohol. — The city of Paris has quit the platform X. — Burgum pledges Trump 2.0 return to ‘energy dominance.’ — Treasury nominee: Carbon tariff could be part of “an entire tariff plan.” | | TRIVIA | |
TRIVIA CUP — Registration is open for the Second Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup, a celebration of all that is nerdy for our fishbowl's finest.
Here are the dates and virtual registration links, as well as all the details you need to register a team. Sign up now! — Lobbyists: Monday, Jan. 27.Click here. — Diplomats: Monday, Feb. 10.Click here. — Journalists/Academics: Monday, March 24.Click here. — Bureaucrats: Monday, April 28.Click here. — None of the above: Monday, May 5.Click here. The top 4 teams at each qualifier will advance to the championship on Monday, June 2. Now, on to our daily trivia. Thursday’s answer: The Canada–United States Automotive Products Agreement was signed by Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson and President Lyndon B. Johnson at the LBJ Ranch in Texas. Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, BOB GORDON, LUCAS MALINOWSKI, JOHN MERRIMAN, LAURA JARVIS, BILL WATSON, KEVIN BOSCH, ROSS LECLAIR, RANDALL OLIVER, LAURE HOURDEBAIGT, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, RAY DEL BIANCO and DENNIS SEEBACH. Friday’s question: Which U.S. presidential candidate was pranked by “This Hour Has 22 Minutes,” and in what state did it happen? Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder question? Send it our way! | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
