State is far from ready for Day 1

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Jan 17, 2025 View in browser   By Nahal Toosi, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio is likely to be the only department head confirmed as the Trump administration takes over next week. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric State is likely to be the one department with a confirmed head as the Trump administration takes over — incoming Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO. But it’s very unclear who else will be showing up to work in Foggy Bottom once President-elect DONALD TRUMP is sworn in on Monday. Department officials have been asked to clear out desks to make space for newcomers despite having little visibility on who many of them are, according to six officials who spoke to NatSec Daily. Even the numbers are unclear. NatSec Daily heard figures ranging from 50 to 100 Trump appointees supposedly landing at the State Department. But virtually no one is certain how many will arrive. It could be far lower. Career diplomats and civil servants also are unsure what work they’ll be doing. Trump is expected to quickly unveil a slew of executive orders once taking office. State Department officials are desperate to know which ones they’ll have to implement or respond to — from tariff orders to immigration and border directives — as well as the language they use. They worry that vague, ambiguous wording in the orders could lead to confusion. “Nobody knows what the hell is going on,” one State Department official said. All the officials NatSec Daily talked to asked not to be named so they could speak candidly about the anxiety-inducing transition process. Transitions can be jumbled affairs, with appointees sometimes receiving job offers and security clearances shortly before they show up to work. It’s also not like there has been a “normal” transition in quite a while — between Trump’s 2016 election upset that no one (including his own team) expected, and a global pandemic and Capitol insurrection that presaged Biden’s 2021 transition. But U.S. diplomats said the Biden-to-Trump switch feels extra opaque — that more bureaus should know by now at least one or more of the political appointees who will be joining them. NatSec Daily has managed to confirm a few names of those that will be arriving. According to two Trump transition officials, Rubio plans to bring in several new hires, including a top senior first term Trump diplomat TIBOR NAGY as acting undersecretary for management and career diplomat LISA KENNA as the State Department’s executive secretary. Nagy declined to comment. Kenna did not respond to a request for comment. NatSec Daily also confirmed — per a State Department official and another person who were briefed on the issue — that education activist MICHELE EXNER, Rubio Senate aide LAURA ORTIZ, and GOP communications strategist TOMMY PIGOTT have been asked to take various roles in State’s bureau for Global Public Affairs. None of the three responded to requests for comment. The situation is fluid. People’s assignments could be rescinded or changed before Monday. The State Department referred NatSec Daily to the transition team for comment. Official spokespersons for the Trump transition did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Several prominent diplomats have recently retired or are about to — some of their own volition, some after being nudged by Trump’s team (something that isn’t out of the ordinary). They include State’s director general of the foreign service, MARCIA BERNICAT, whose position is essentially the top human resources job. In a farewell note obtained by NatSec Daily, Bernicat wrote to her colleagues: “The strength of this department lies in its people. We all share the responsibility of caring for the team that powers American diplomacy.” The Inbox ISRAEL AGREES TO CEASE-FIRE: The Israeli security cabinet voted to recommend the government approve a cease-fire and hostage release deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, meaning that implementation will likely go ahead as planned on Sunday. It’s a major source of relief for both the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administrations, which worked together to secure a deal to pause fighting and free a first group of hostages in Hamas captivity before Trump takes office on Monday. The full Israeli government is expected to abide by the recommendation from the smaller group of security officials and approve the deal today. Now, the task before the Trump administration’s incoming special envoy STEVE WITKOFF and incoming deputy envoy MORGAN ORTAGUS is to secure a permanent cease-fire (the current deal lasts for just six weeks) and continue along a multi-phase framework for ending the conflict in the Gaza Strip and repatriating hostages. READ: Trump was ‘the closer’ on Gaza cease-fire deal by our colleague JAMIE DETTMER MORE PRISONERS RELEASED IN CUBA: The Cuban government is releasing even more political prisoners today as part of a deal reached with the Vatican earlier this week and following President JOE BIDEN’s decision to lift some restrictions on Havana. Earlier this week, prominent dissidents including JOSÉ DANIEL FERRER were released in relation to charges stemming from anti-government protests on the island in July 2021. The Cuban government detained large numbers of opposition activists and human rights campaigners during its crackdown on the civil unrest and was criticized by international observers for its heavy-handed response. It’s unclear how long the thaw between Washington and Havana will last. The incoming Trump administration has made known its displeasure with some of the policy changes, including the decision to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism and suspend a provision of the Helms-Burton Act that allows Cuban exiles to file claims against the Cuban government in court relating to assets seized during the 1959 Cuban Revolution. THE QUAD RACES TO BE FIRST: Just a day after Trump takes office, the foreign ministers of the Quad alliance plan to meet with the fledgling Trump administration. As our own PHELIM KINE, Robbie and DANIEL LIPPMAN report, Australian Foreign Minister PENNY WONG, Indian External Affairs Minister SUBRAHMANYAM JAISHANKAR and Japanese Foreign Minister TAKESHI IWAYA will all attend Trump’s inauguration on Monday and then meet with Trump administration officials on Tuesday. The expectation is that Rubio will be able to meet immediately with his new foreign counterparts and helm the gathering.   DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring JOHN FEELEY, a former career diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to Panama under both Presidents BARACK OBAMA and Trump. (Those invested in U.S.-Panama ties may have more of a reason for a stiff drink after Trump’s comments about re-taking the Panama Canal.) “My drink of choice has been my drink of choice for the last 40 years,” Feeley said. “As a good Irish American, I love a straight Jameson double on the rocks.” Sometimes Jameson is hard to come by when he’s down in Panama, he said. In that case, he has a backup he likes to call a “Caribbean slurpee.” It’s a “big glass full of ice, and you fill it up with scotch,” he said laughing. Cheers to that! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 Transition 2024 TRUMP’S HOTLINE BLING: It was a warm start for some otherwise frosty frenemies: Trump today had a pretty amicable phone call with Chinese President XI JINPING, Phelim also reports. Trump held off from throwing his usual Trumpy shade in a Truth Social post on the call — an early sign he may try to tamp down tensions with Beijing even as he stacks his administration with prominent China hawks. Trump said the two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl and TikTok among other issues. “President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!” he said in his post. A Chinese Foreign Ministry readout of the call omitted the fact the leaders discussed TikTok but said the two leaders discussed the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and added that Trump wanted to meet as soon as possible. The transition team didn’t respond to a query as to whether that was true. The call follows Beijing’s Thursday night announcement that it would send an envoy, Vice President HAN ZHENG to the inauguration. It also preceded a Supreme Court ruling allowing a ban on the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok to take effect this weekend. Keystrokes US WENT ON CYBER OFFENSIVE: The U.S. quietly conducted offensive cyber operations against China in response to widespread cyber breaches, a top outgoing U.S. cyber official revealed to our own MAGGIE MILLER and JOHN SAKELLARIADIS (for Pros!). In an exit interview as she prepares to depart her job as deputy national security adviser for cyber, ANNE NEUBERGER explained that “offensive operations occur in a classified manner … but we work actively to disable malicious infrastructure around the world, to find and expose adversary capabilities and to make cyberspace safer, using offensive capabilities.” Earlier this month, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters that the U.S. had “taken steps in response” to the hacks of U.S. telecom systems by Chinese government-linked group Salt Typhoon and the infiltration of U.S. critical infrastructure in recent years by a separate Chinese hacking group dubbed Volt Typhoon. But officials had stayed mum about the details of the U.S. response until now. Neuberger told Maggie and John that the administration also worked to “convey to the Chinese government our message regarding the scale of this espionage and why the scope and scale is concerning.” The Complex MEET THE HASC RANKERS: Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee unveiled the list of ranking members on the defense panel’s various subcommittees. As our own CONNOR O’BRIEN wrote today (for Pros!), some new faces are joining the slate of top Democrats on the committee. Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania will lead Democrats on the Military Personnel subcommittee. And Rep. JASON CROW of Colorado will be ranking member on the Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee. Crow left the panel in the last Congress. Meanwhile, five “rankers” are returning. RO KHANNA and JOHN GARAMENDI of California will be the top Democrats on the Cyber and Readiness subcommittees, respectively. Rep. JOE COURTNEY of Connecticut remains the top Democrat on the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. And Rep. SETH MOULTON of Massachusetts and DONALD NORCROSS of New Jersey will stay atop the Strategic Forces panel and the Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee, respectively. ON THE HILL NOEM’S CISA CRUSADE: Trump’s pick to be secretary of Homeland Security, South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM, has the government’s top cyber agency in her crosshairs, John also reports. At her confirmation hearing today, Noem said that the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency had “gotten far off mission” as it has tried to thwart foreign disinformation campaigns online. In her view, CISA “needs to be much more effective, smaller, more nimble to really fulfill their mission.” Noem, who cited cybersecurity as one of her top priorities for the agency in her opening statement, went on to say that CISA, rather than focusing on election security and disinformation around Covid-19 and the 2020 election as it did in the past, should “support critical infrastructure” and “help our local and small business” ensure they can mitigate cyberattacks. Counter-foreign disinformation operations are just a slim part of the agency’s current budget, John writes, but her positions landed well with Republicans on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, including Chair RAND PAUL of Kentucky and Sen. RON JOHNSON of Wisconsin. Noem’s cyber comments weren’t the only takeaway from the South Dakota Republican’s low-drama confirmation hearing. Our colleague DANIELLA DIAZ has more on Noem’s plans for combatting migration at the border, including Trump’s plans to end humanitarian parole for migrants from Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela and Haiti. Broadsides DEM HEAT ON HEGSETH: Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) is issuing a fresh barrage of criticisms at Trump’s Defense Secretary nominee PETE HEGSETH after his bruising confirmation hearing. “He also talked at length about not lowering the standards for anybody else. And yet, as far as I could tell, that hearing was all about him asking us to lower the standards for him,” Duckworth said in an interview with The 19th’s GRACE PANETTA. Duckworth, a U.S. combat veteran, lost both of her legs after her Black Hawk helicopter was attacked in Iraq. She also took Hegseth to task on Indo-Pacific policy, stumping the former Fox News host when he was asked to name members of ASEAN during his confirmation hearing earlier this week. Transitions — Former Dutch Foreign Minister SIGRID KAAG has been named as the United Nations’ new top Middle East envoy — Washington Post columnist JOSH ROGIN was named lead global security analyst for WP Intelligence, a new platform the legacy paper is launching. What to Read — POLITICO: 11 historians predict how Joe Biden will be remembered — ANDREW SANDERS and RYAN BERG, Center for Strategic and International Studies: Panama: From zoned out to strategic opportunity — IAN KELLY and DAVID KRAMER, Just Security: Crisis in Georgia: Why the Trump administration should step in to shore up U.S. influence Monday Today — Inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD VANCE, 12 p.m. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose plans for the newsletter are also unusually secretive.  Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is always crystal-clear about her objectives.   Follow us on Twitter Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil   Follow us

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