Studies highlight potential 'cap and invest' benefits

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., New York & New Jersey Energy is your guide to the week’s top energy news and policy in Albany and Trenton.
Jan 13, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Marie J. French and Ry Rivard

Good morning and welcome to the weekly Monday edition of the New York & New Jersey Energy newsletter. We'll take a look at the week ahead and look back on what you may have missed last week.

QUICK FIX

STUDIES FIND CAP AND INVEST BENEFITS — POLITICO’s Marie J. French: New York’s most vulnerable residents would fare better financially if Gov. Kathy Hochul set a higher price limit for polluters in a cap-and-trade style system, according to two reports backed by environmental advocates.

The reports show that directing some of the money raised by placing a fee on carbon emissions to consumers would leave the average low-income household better off — and that a higher fee would offer more benefits. One study found the average household making less than $200,000 would see a net benefit.

That study also highlights a potential regional disparity in net costs that could be remedied by giving bigger checks back to households in areas where people drive farther or pay more to heat their homes.

“If the stated intention is to — I don’t want to be crass about it — but if it's to put more money in New Yorkers’ pockets, here's a way to do it,” said Eddie Bautista, the executive director of the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance. “This idea that a low price ceiling is, in fact, the more affordable way to go? This study, for us, kind of blows that up.”

NYC-EJA worked with Resources for the Future on a report released Monday that looks at household impacts of different cap-and-trade price levels. It examines impacts at different income levels when a third of the revenue is distributed to households based on income and location.

HAPPY MONDAY MORNING: Let us know if you have tips, story ideas or life advice. We're always here at mfrench@politico.com and rrivard@politico.com. And if you like this letter, please tell a friend and/or loved one to sign up.

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ICYMI: TRUMP SIDES WITH UNIONS, FOR NOW — POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein, Ry Rivard, Sam Ogozalek and Nick Niedzwiadek: Even before taking office, President-elect Donald Trump is getting credit for helping to head off a major port strike threatening the economy, after siding with a dockworkers’ union in a dispute with shipping companies over automation.

The union’s leader and even some critics of the incoming president say a forceful statement from Trump against replacing workers with machines was enough to tip the scales in contract talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association and a coalition of port operators and shipping companies.

It’s a big coup for Trump in his effort to court blue-collar support, though it remains unclear whether he can truly earn a place in labor’s good graces.

And as with other Trump moves that buck the Republican convention, a personal relationship played a substantial role in his decision-making — in this case, one dating back decades with longshoremen’s union boss Harold Daggett.

Many other union leaders remain deeply distrustful of Trump, pointing to appointees in his first term who were hostile to labor’s priorities and his new alliance with business mogul Elon Musk. The pair jocularly mused in August about employers firing workers for picketing — an illegal tactic under federal labor law.

But Daggett isn’t among the skeptics. In an effusive statement after reaching a tentative deal with port terminal owners and shipping companies on the East and Gulf coasts, he said his union regards Trump as “one of the greatest friends of organized labor and champion of the working men and women of this country.”

It was a slap in the face to President Joe Biden, who ran one of the most pro-union administrations in recent history. Biden installed labor-friendly appointees in key positions and walked a picket line during the UAW’s 2023 strike against Detroit’s Big Three automakers.

Those in Trump’s orbit with a more populist agenda are gleeful.

“Does Elon Musk have influence? Certainly. Does he have power? No,” said Steve Bannon, a former top Trump aide who has also battled Musk over the business mogul’s support for visas for high-tech workers. “President Trump’s default position is always going to be support for the American worker. He was very upfront about he was against this automation that would take out swaths of workers.”

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

MONDAY

 — NY Renews hosts a virtual “Climate State of the State” presser at 11 a.m.

TUESDAY

— New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy delivers his State of the State address, 3 p.m. The address will be livestreamed on the governor's official Facebook, X, and YouTube pages, as well as via LiveU Matrix. The governor says he plans to “run through the tape” of his term, which ends a year from now.

— New York Gov. Kathy Hochul delivers her State of the State at 1 p.m. in Albany.

WEDNESDAY

— The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, at its 10 a.m. meeting, will consider changing the scope of work for E3, the consultant hired to update the state’s Energy Master Plan. Also notable is what’s not on the agenda: awards for or modifications of any offshore wind contracts.

Around New York

— New York Republicans said this weekend they discussed killing congestion pricing with President-elect Donald Trump.

Around New Jersey

— A watchdog group has accused PSE&G of “harrowing fraud” after FERC fined New Jersey’s largest utility $6.6 million for failing to fully and accurately describe the condition of a transmission line the company upgraded. The group, Public Citizen, said a consent decree FERC unveiled last month “fails to protect consumers from unjust and unreasonable rates” and is seeking to stop PSEG from charging customers for the line, which is already in service. In 2017 and 2018, PSE&G provided PJM with information that suggested the 50-mile line, known as the Roseland-to-Pleasant Valley corridor, was at the end of its useful life after 90 years. But, FERC found, that information was not always correct. In agreeing to pay a civil penalty, PSE&G neither admitted or denied allegations against it, but defended its work. In response to Public Citizen’s filing, a PSE&G spokesperson told Utility Dive the company will “vigorously defend” itself against the claims.

— Home insurance costs are going up and companies are dropping homeowners more often in New Jersey.

— New Jersey commuters are having an easier time getting into Manhattan after congestion pricing went into effect.

What you may have missed

MORE ZERO EMISSION BUS FUNDING: New York is dumping more funds into a program to electrify the state’s transit fleets. Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Wednesday that $100 million is now available for public transit fleets outside New York City (not you, MTA).

Transit systems in the Albany area, Central New York, Buffalo area and Rochester are eligible for up to $17.5 million and must provide a 10 percent non-state match for the “Zero-Emission Transit Transition Program.” Other eligible entities can apply for up to $5 million. Applications are due April 4.

The New York Public Transit Association estimates that non-MTA systems need more than $1 billion over the next five years to meet mass transit needs in their communities, including the transition to zero-emission buses.

“The technology is more costly and requires expensive charging equipment and related infrastructure upgrades, so the funding announced will help in those efforts,” said James Morrell, president of the New York Public Transit Association and director of public transit for the Niagara Frontier Transportation Authority.

Although Hochul’s release makes no mention of it, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo set a target of electrifying all public transit buses by 2035.

The money from the new program can be used for developing fleet transition plans, acquiring transit fleet buses with zero-emission technology including “hydrogen-electric,” new or existing facilities for housing and maintaining zero-emission fleets and construction of utility infrastructure and equipment for electricity or fuel networks. — Marie J. French

FULOP’S ENVIRONMENTAL PLAN — Steven Fulop, Jersey City’s Democratic mayor who is running for governor, released his environmental policy plan on Thursday. The platform includes a temporary ban on new warehouses, increasing the state’s energy efficiency target from 2 percent to 7 percent, banning the bear hunt, keeping existing nuclear plants open, support for offshore wind and beefing up staffing at the Department of Environmental Protection.

HEASTIE HIGHLIGHTS HEAT: Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie is making it clear he’s open to passing some version of a complex gas transition measure — as long as concerns about cost impacts are addressed.

“Even with the HEAT Act, my biggest issue was — and for many members in the conference is — if you want to electrify homes, you just don’t want it to be such a burdensome thing for people to do,” Heastie told reporters in response to a question about his position on “cap and invest.”

“So we want to get it done but you also don’t want to saddle people with huge bills,” Heastie added.

Changes to the HEAT Act are likely to address the concerns of Heastie and some Assembly Democrats. There’s not yet a new Assembly sponsor for the bill, as Pat Fahy has moved to the other chamber. Heastie also told Susan Arbetter in an interview ahead of the first day of session that there are concerns with the current version of the measure but indicated openness to moving forward with it.

The Assembly leader did not give a clear position on “cap and invest,” but the issue of spending revenue from regulations Gov. Kathy Hochul is expected to put forward soon could become a major issue during budget negotiations.

Lawmakers will implicitly have to endorse the concept by divvying up the money and weigh in on how much should be returned to New York consumers. Hochul is expected to propose returning more than a third of the money raised from the charge for emissions to residents via their utility bills.

“We always want to be concerned on cost but we also can’t forget the Earth is in need of some reform and some protection,” Heastie said. He acknowledged that Hochul had signed the Climate Superfund measure. “We do have to build for resiliency,” he added.

Environmental groups are gearing up to push their priorities both in the structural details of the “cap and invest” regulations and the spending plans. One major point of contention remains whether the program truly puts a limit on emissions to align with New York’s climate goals. Hochul’s administration hasn’t publicly released any modeled scenario that would achieve a 40 percent reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2030, as required by the climate law.

Such a policy could be prohibitively expensive and send shockwaves through the economy, her officials worry. But some Democratic lawmakers and environmental advocates argue the approach of selling unlimited allowances to pollute at a certain price ceiling undermines the state’s climate law and the purpose of the program. “It’s literally not a cap and invest program,” said Assemblymember Anna Kelles, a Democrat from Ithaca. “That to me is a gas tax — its a pay to play.”

NY Renews, the powerful coalition that championed what became New York’s landmark climate law, also has concerns about Hochul’s “cap and invest” plan. The coalition sent a letter to the governor calling on her to issue “strong and equitable cap-and-invest regulations.” The coalition opposes a low price ceiling that doesn’t achieve the state’s climate law goals. They also oppose allowing the trading of allowances, with an eye toward limiting emissions in or near disadvantaged communities. Trading is a fundamental part of the policy being advanced by Hochul’s administration.

“Governor Hochul, our world is at a pivotal moment and you are in a position to lead by advancing a cap-and-invest program that drives down [greenhouse gas] and co-pollutant emissions in line with the Climate Act while putting dollars back in New Yorkers’ wallets,” the letter states. — Marie J. French

BIRD FLU IN JERSEY — Bird flu has been found in 11 birds, according to the New Jersey fish and wildlife officials. The agency is taking the lead by trying to warn hunters because there is not yet considered to be a public health risk, though state agriculture and health officials are expected to be part of any larger response, along with federal counterparts.

Fish and Wildlife, which is part of the Department of Environmental Protection, issued a notice on Wednesday that the avian flu is the expected cause of death for seven snow geese, two Canada geese and a pair of hawks recovered from Warren, Middlesex, Morris, and Sussex counties.

Following the death of a person in Louisiana from bird flu, New Jersey officials said Tuesday they had not detected the flu in any farm animals or people, but NorthJersey.com reported Wednesday that a wastewater sample from Newark has tested positive. — Ry Rivard

PORT STRIKE AVOIDED — POLITICO's Ry Rivard, Sam Ogozalek and Nick Niedzwiadek: Dockworkers and the shipping industry reached a deal Wednesday to avoid a strike that could have wounded the economy and created a major headache for President-elect Donald Trump just days before he took office.

FIRING UP GAS ADS: A coalition backing a sweeping measure to transition buildings off natural gas is ramping up their efforts as lawmakers return to Albany. The “six-figure ad campaign” in support of the NY HEAT Act includes newsletter sponsorships, digital ads and billboards at the charming Albany-adjacent Amtrak station starting next week, according to supporters.

NY HEAT is a major priority for several environmental groups this year after the issue faced roadblocks in the Assembly during talks last year. The complex measure would end the legal “obligation to serve” that requires utilities to provide gas on request, stop requiring other gas customers to subsidize the cost of new hookups and ultimately enable the Public Service Commission to remove neighborhoods from the gas system. It also seeks to shield some New York residents from rising costs by limiting utility bills to 6 percent of their income.

Suburban and upstate Democrats have expressed concerns about how the measure will impact existing gas customers. Business groups and the fossil fuel industry, particularly gas-only utility National Fuel Gas, have fought the measure, focusing on affordability concerns for gas to electric conversions.

The pro-NY HEAT campaign is a coordinated effort between the Renewable Heat Now coalition, Spring Street Climate Fund, the New York League of Conservation Voters and the Building Decarbonization Coalition.  — Marie J. French

BANKS BACK DOWN ON NET ZERO — POLITICO’s Jordan Wolman: Major financial firms are facing a reckoning around efforts to keep them engaged in the fight against global warming as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to lead a Republican trifecta in dismantling climate progress.

VERY GENEROUS? — POLITICO’s Ry Rivard: After his lawsuit failed to stop congestion pricing, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is facing criticism for turning down what New York’s governor called “very generous” settlement offers.

But whether the offers were that generous may depend on which side of the Hudson River you’re on.

In the weeks before a judge rejected New Jersey’s bid to stop tolling that began on Sunday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul tried to start a pressure campaign on Murphy to settle the case. The offers included $500 million to help pay for the new Midtown bus terminal in Manhattan; toll credit for drivers coming across the George Washington Bridge; and a pledge to prioritize New Jersey Transit portions of Penn Station during a long-awaited redo, according to two sources familiar with New York’s offers granted anonymity to discuss confidential settlement talks.

Hochul obliquely referenced some elements of a deal during a December press conference, when she mentioned riders “stuck on New Jersey Transit” or wanting a “nice new bus station” being affected by the outcome of the settlement talks or lawsuit.

But the sources differed on whether this should be called generous.

OFFSHORE OFF LIMITS — POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre: President Joe Biden announced Monday he would remove nearly all federal waters from consideration from oil drilling, a move that bolstered his green credentials but which President-elect Donald Trump promised to reverse.

 

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