Trump backtracks on tariffs. Again.

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Jan 27, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One

The White House said drafted plans to impose stiff tariffs on Colombia are being "held in reserve." | Mark Schiefelbein/AP

QUICK FIX

— Donald Trump reversed course on his threat to slap stiff tariffs on Colombia in a move poised to fuel uncertainty over the president's promise to impose sweeping tariffs.

— The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched new probes to assess trade deals in a move that could lay the groundwork for new tariffs.

— The premier of Ontario Doug Ford spelled out his bullish approach to Trump's economic plans in an interview with POLITICO.

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Driving the day

NEW DAY, NEW TARIFF THREAT: The Trump administration on Sunday announced they are not moving forward with plans to impose up to a 50 percent tariff on Colombia — threats Donald Trump made after the country turned away U.S. military aircrafts of detained Colombian migrants.

"The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay,” the White House announced in a statement from its press secretary late in the evening.

The statement indicated that the White House had drafted a legal memo underscoring Trump’s authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which grants a president sweeping authority to control economic transactions if they declare an emergency.

“Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement,” the press statement said.

Why it matters: The announcement from Trump’s White House is the latest example of the administration walking back plans to impose duties on trading partners. And it’s set to irk Trump’s hardcore protectionist backers who are pining for him to take sweeping action in the early days of his administration.

The statement comes after the president broke his vow from November to impose 25 percent tariffs on both Mexico and Canada his first day in office, a timeline he kicked down the road until Feb. 1, which is also when he said he would impose 10 percent duties on China. Those timelines clash with the president’s Day One action on trade that tasked federal agencies and departments, such as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Commerce Department, with an April deadline to prepare reviews of trade deals which could be the basis of new tariff action.

One step back: Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro went tit-for-tat on Sunday after Trump announced he would “immediately” impose 25 percent tariffs on the country, which would increase to 50 percent in a week. Petro pledged to retaliate with tariffs of his own, but earlier in the day a statement said he arranged a presidential plane to “facilitate the dignified return of the nationals who were to arrive today in the morning.”

Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, told Morning Trade that countries could be more likely to brush aside the United States if the pattern continues, and potentially expand trade with non-U.S. countries to fill the void.

"I just wonder whether anybody in the White House really is thinking about just how much all of this uncertainty will weigh on the U.S. economy and on U.S. and global trade policy,” Lincicome said. "If you do this all the time, it's going to work a few times, and then people are just going to say, ‘screw this.’”

"The U.S. is still a wonderfully valuable market, but at the same time, who wants to deal with the headache of being threatened for non-trade stuff all the time?,” Lincicome said.

INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION

USTR PROBES CHINA: USTR on Friday launched two reviews: one focused on unfair trade practices and another to assess whether China has made good on its commitments outlined in its phase-one deal with the U.S. signed under the first Trump administration.

Those probes could be the legal basis for new tariffs on China. The first Trump and Biden administration used Section 301 under USTR to hit China with tariffs on billions of dollars worth of imports.

Trump on Day One tasked the agency with investigating trade deals under his "America First Trade Policy." The announcement of the reviews comes as Trump’s pick to lead USTR, Jamieson Greer, awaits his confirmation.

Juan Millán is currently serving as acting USTR, according to a posting from the White House.

On the Hill

BESSENT ADVANCES: The Senate voted 67-23 to advance Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury secretary, clearing the way for his confirmation, which could come as soon as this evening. Fifteen Democrats joined Republicans in backing Bessent. Michael Stratford has more.

CANADA CORNER

‘HIT HIM BACK’: Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, plans to rain economic punishment on Americans if Trump targets Canada in a trade war.

“I’m a street fighter in politics,” Ford said. “If someone throws a punch at me, I’m going to hit him back twice as hard.”

Ford has threatened to cut power transmission to U.S. homes and businesses and banish U.S. liquor from Ontario shelves. Wearing a MAGA-like hat reading “Canada Is Not For Sale,” Ford pledged to target red states with dollar-for-dollar retaliation in an interview with Alexander Burns.

It’s a risky strategy, seemingly anchored in Ford’s confidence that he understands Trump on a deeper level than his colleagues in the governing class. If Ford is wrong in his assessment of Trump, his peace-through-strength strategy could inadvertently accelerate a trade war that Ford views as irrational. He is emphatic that he does not want to carry out any of the threats he’s leveled at Washington.

“That’s the last thing I want to do. I want to work with President Trump,” Ford said. He stressed: “There’s no one that loves the U.S. up here in Canada more than I do.”

On the Move

William Kimmitt is set to be tapped for the position of under secretary for trade in the Commerce Department, two people briefed on plans and granted anonymity to discuss non-public information told Morning Trade.

Kimmitt, who is currently a partner at Kirkland & Ellis, during the first Trump administration served as counselor to then-USTR Robert Lighthizer.

Jeffrey Kessler is expected to be tapped to lead Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, which has authority over export controls. He is a partner at the law firm WilmerHale and served as assistant secretary for enforcement and compliance during the first Trump administration.

Inside U.S. Trade and Reuters first reported the developments.

 

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TRADE OVERNIGHT

— How ‘Sour Raspberry Gummy Bear’ — and Other Chinese Vapes — Made Fools of American Lawmakers, POLITICO Reports.

— Trump’s Commerce nominee Lutnick details extent of wealth, POLITICO Pro reports.

— Sen. Ted Cruz: No need for further declassified intel on TikTok ban, per POLITICO Pro.

— Trump promised some tariffs immediately. They’re not here — yet, POLITICO reports.

— Tesla also sues EU over electric vehicle duties, per POLITICO Pro.

— EU to bundle critical minerals buying, overhaul procurement in competitiveness push, POLITICO Pro reports.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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