Trump can't leave abortion to the states

Presented by McKinsey & Company: The preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump's presidential transition.
Jan 15, 2025 View in browser
 
POLITICO'S West Wing Playbook: Transition of Power

By Alice Miranda Ollstein, Megan Messerly, Eli Stokols and Ben Johansen

Presented by 

McKinsey & Company

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump’s transition. POLITICO Pro subscribers receive a version of this newsletter first.

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DONALD TRUMP ran on a pledge to leave abortion policy up to states, a posture that helped him retain just enough support from moderate women who opposed the loss of Supreme Court protections for the procedure to clinch his November victory.

His White House win may not have been possible without voters who simultaneously supported abortion access in statewide ballot initiatives.

But groups on both sides of the abortion wars — as well as medical providers around the country — are confident he won’t keep the federal government out of abortion policy. And given anticipated actions by Congress, the courts and his own Cabinet, he may not have a choice.

Trump is set to inherit from the Biden administration several federal cases that could directly impact where and how millions of women can access abortions. Trump’s Justice Department will have to decide whether to continue these lawsuits as-is, switch sides or drop them altogether.

Rather than waiting to find out, St. Luke’s hospital in Boise, Idaho, filed its own lawsuit this week arguing that the state's abortion ban conflicts with federal protections for emergency room patients — and its lawyers explicitly said they're doing so because they expect Trump to drop the lawsuit that JOE BIDEN’s Justice Department has been fighting on the issue for more than a year.

While the Biden administration won an injunction stopping Idaho from enforcing its ban in emergency circumstances, which the Supreme Court left in place when it punted on the case last year, the hospital’s lawyers said they intervened out of fear the Trump’s administration won’t stay the course on the case.

The Republican majority in Congress is also planning to send Trump a bill that would mandate doctors take particular measures if a woman gives birth following an unsuccessful abortion, and they’re also expected to pursue a wide range of federal restrictions on the procedure in upcoming spending fights. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and Trump’s allies at the Department of Government Efficiency have held up eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, for example, as a priority.

While the Senate has blocked these measures in the past, it’s unclear if its expanded GOP majority will continue to do so or send them to Trump’s desk.

Trump has also nominated a slew of officials with records of opposing abortion to lead various federal agencies, and the anti-abortion groups that helped him win the election are expecting his Cabinet to deliver for them. They’re anticipating a blitz of executive orders that roll back Biden-era policies that expanded abortion access, reimpose restrictions from Trump’s first administration and target the few ways women in red states are continuing to terminate pregnancies — from seeking care in emergency rooms to ordering pills online and receiving them by mail.

“Abortion is federal, and to think that we're done with it at the federal level is not to understand how federal it is,” said KRISTI HAMRICK, a vice president at Students for Life of America, an anti-abortion group holding a summit in D.C. a couple days after Trump’s inauguration. “It’s a fundamental human rights question.”

The Trump transition declined to answer West Wing Playbook’s questions about the specific abortion policies they are expected to unveil next week, but spokeswoman KAROLINE LEAVITT said in a statement that Trump “has long been consistent in supporting the rights of states to make decisions on abortion” and that the public “can bank on President Trump using his executive power on day one to deliver on the promises he made to them on the campaign trail.”

Trump’s myriad campaign trail promises were not specific on how he would or would not wield executive power on abortion. So as the Senate embarks on hearings for a dozen Trump nominees this week, groups on both sides of the issue are watching closely for clues on how far the incoming president’s picks would be willing to go to impose curbs on the procedure.

AMY WILLIAMS NAVARRO, director of government relations with Reproductive Freedom for All, said her team is paying particular attention to Attorney General nominee PAM BONDI, who opposed abortion rights in her past role as Florida’s attorney general, and Secretary of State nominee MARCO RUBIO, who repeatedly voted for national abortion restrictions as a senator.

In her confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Bondi declined to commit to defending federal regulations allowing abortion pills to be prescribed by telehealth and delivered by mail — another ongoing legal battle the Trump administration is inheriting — saying only that she would “not let my personal beliefs affect how I carry out the law."

Both pro-abortion rights and anti-abortion activists also have their eyes on HHS Secretary nominee ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., who has at times supported unrestricted access to the procedure but since being nominated has promised senators he will implement several anti-abortion executive orders.

“In the sense that personnel is policy, we are taking these appointments as a signal that the administration will definitely be going back on their promise to leave abortion to the states,” Navarro said.

MESSAGE US — Are you MARCO RUBIO? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.

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McKinsey & Company has provided nonpartisan support to help guide federal and state transitions for more than 70 years. Through insights, trainings and playbooks, McKinsey helps leaders navigate their first 100 days with confidence and clarity. Learn more.

 
POTUS PUZZLER

The temperature for Monday’s Inauguration Day could hit the low-teens. What was the coldest Inauguration Day in U.S. history?

(Answer at bottom.)

Pro Exclusive

Trump to tap Tyler Clarkson for USDA general counsel, via our MARCIA BROWN and GRACE YARROW

Trump draws on ex-EEOC, DOL official to be deputy secretary, via our NICK NIEDZWIADEK

Trump energy world is getting crowded, via our ROBIN BRAVENDER

Biden rebuilt EPA. Will Trump “wreck things”?, via our KEVIN BOGARDUS

The reporting in this section is exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2024 transition and beyond, visit politicopro.com.

Heads up, we're all transition all the time over on our live blog: Inside Congress Live: Transition of Power. Bookmark politico.com/transition to keep up with us.

THE BUREAUCRATS

ON THE HILL TODAY: Several of Trump’s Cabinet picks made their pitches to the Senate committees tasked with reviewing their nominations.

  • Pam Bondi, who was arguably the most high profile nominee on the Hill today, dodged several questions from Senate Democrats — like whether she would investigate special counsel JACK SMITH and whether the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Trump. 
  • Marco Rubio will likely sail smoothly through his confirmation process. During his hearing today, Rubio affirmed his support for the three-nation submarine pact known as AUKUS, offering the first indication that the Trump administration will back the agreement.
  • Energy nominee CHRIS WRIGHT admitted today that fossil fuels are driving climate change, but he said he supported increasing global access to oil and gas. We should also note there’s been some drama around his hearing: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair MIKE LEE held the hearing only a day after the committee received Wright’s financial and ethics document. Ranking member Sen. MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) called the decision a “disappointment.”

DOGE NO MORE? Two months after taking himself out of the running for the open Ohio Senate seat, VIVEK RAMASWAMY is under consideration for the post, our SOPHIA CAI, ADAM WREN and HOLLY OTTERBEIN report. Ramaswamy and Ohio Gov. MIKE DeWINE, who is tasked with appointing someone to take over Vice President-elect JD VANCE’s old position, met at the governor’s mansion over the weekend to discuss the post.

Ramaswamy is being considered even as he’s interested in continuing to serve on the Department of Government Efficiency with co-lead ELON MUSK — and in potentially launching a gubernatorial run, according to one person familiar with the matter.

TULSI’S JUST SKATING BY: Even though PETE HEGSETH has faced extensive scrutiny over his personal conduct, high-level Republicans have quietly considered TULSI GABBARD to be Trump’s most imperiled nominee, our JONATHAN MARTIN reports.

The disproportionate attention to Hegseth’s nomination — both by the media and by Senate Democrats alike — has been a boon to Gabbard. And it has surprised some Republicans who said they would be more willing to make common cause to stop the former Democrat from Hawaii, who holds isolationist and libertarian national security views outside the Senate GOP mainstream.

It’s hardly a secret that Senate Republicans have misgivings about Gabbard: One aide to a senior lawmaker told JMart that, in a secret ballot, she’d lose at least 15 Republicans.

BOXING HIM IN: Months after Trump promised he would let RFK Jr. “go wild” on health care as Health and Human Services secretary, some of the president-elect’s advisers are trying to box him in, our ADAM CANCRYN and DAVID LIM report. Transition officials plan to install several longtime GOP allies in senior roles throughout HHS, filling out key leadership posts well before Kennedy is confirmed.

The transition has tapped veteran GOP lawyer HEATHER FLICK to be Kennedy’s chief of staff. HANNAH ANDERSON, a health expert at the Trump-aligned America First Policy Institute, is also expected to take a senior role. On the other hand, three of Kennedy’s closest confidants — wellness entrepreneurs and influencers CALLEY and CASEY MEANS and vaccine injury lawyer AARON SIRI — are unlikely to join the department.

This push aims to surround Kennedy with conservative policymakers who can compensate for his lack of government experience and MAGA credentials, while also ensuring the White House keeps close tabs on the HHS nominee who many aides don’t fully trust, according to six Republicans familiar with the transition’s activities.

ALSO ON KENNEDY … Advancing American Progress, a group founded by former Vice President MIKE PENCE, is sending a letter to senators urging them to oppose Kennedy's nomination to be HHS secretary, our ALI BIANCO reports.

Kennedy’s past positions on abortion are “completely out of step with the strong, pro-life record of the first Trump Administration,” AAF president TIM CHAPMAN and chairman of the board MARC SHORT wrote in the letter. “While RFK Jr. has made certain overtures to pro-life leaders that he would be mindful of their concerns at HHS, there is little reason for confidence at this time.”

NEW CYBER SHERIFF COMING TO TOWN: The Trump transition is zeroing in on SEAN PLANKEY as its choice to be the next director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, our JOHN SAKELLARIADIS and MAGGIE MILLER report. Plankey, a senior cyber policy official from Trump’s first term and a veteran of the Pennsylvania National Guard and U.S. Coast Guard, is firmly the top contender at this point in the process.

The potential pick of Plankey comes as current CISA Director JEN EASTERLY prepares to step down from the role on Jan. 20.

REMEMBER WHEN KRISTI NOEM SAID SHE SHOT A DOG? Newly released financial disclosures for KRISTI NOEM, Trump’s pick to be Homeland Security secretary, reveal that she made $139,750 in an advance payment for her book published in 2024, which included a detail about how she shot and killed a dog, our DANIELLA DIAZ reports. (RIP, CRICKET.)

Her disclosures also reveal she made $40,000 on her first book advance and that her husband’s salary is about $1.1 million. He works for an insurance firm.

 

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Agenda Setting

CEASE-FIRE REACHED: Israel and Hamas have reached a cease-fire deal to pause the devastating, lengthy war in the Gaza strip, our ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and NAHAL TOOSI report. The deal secures the release of dozens of Israeli and American hostages being held by Hamas and signals a potential winding down of a conflict that has killed nearly 50,000 Palestinians and wounded thousands more.

“I’d note that this deal was developed and negotiated under my administration, but its terms will be implemented, for the most part, by the next administration. In these past few days, we’ve been speaking as one team,” President Biden said Wednesday following the announcement.

Trump, in a post on Truth Social, called the agreement “EPIC" and took credit for making it happen.

As he was walking out of the press conference, Biden was asked by a reporter who actually gets credit: Him or Trump. “Is that a joke?” he responded.

What We're Reading

How one of Trump’s most controversial allies became one of his safest Cabinet picks (POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs)

Jill Biden still hopes for a good ending (WaPo’s Kara Voght)

Tulsi Gabbard, Sean Penn and the hunt for an American hostage (The Economist)

MAGA’s Demon-Haunted World (The Atlantic’s Helen Lewis)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

In 1985, D.C. hit minus-4 degrees the morning of RONALD REAGAN’s second swearing in and climbed to only 7 degrees by noon. That’s compared to four years earlier for Reagan’s first inauguration, which was the warmest recorded Inauguration Day at 55 degrees.

Dress accordingly, folks. Don’t be a WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Jennifer Haberkorn and Rishika Dugyala

 

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For nearly 100 years, McKinsey & Company has been a trusted advisor to organizations during transitions. In the first 100 days, leaders need to quickly solidify their missions, build the right team, and strengthen their resilience in an ever-evolving world. McKinsey's decades of experience provide valuable insights, trainings and playbooks for a successful transition. Learn more about our work.

 
 

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