OUT COLD — Fifteen minutes late on a frigid morning, with garland drooping over the doorway at Rideau Cottage and a porchlight swinging in the breeze, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU strode out to a lectern to sketch out the end of his political career. The wind blew away his speaking notes. Even a teleprompter struggled with the cold. — The basics: Trudeau hit pause on Parliament until March 24. He'll stay on as Liberal leader and prime minister until the party picks a successor. It's unclear how or when that leadership contest will play out, but timelines are short. — There was an eeriness to the scene. This was where Trudeau reassured Canadians every day, for months on end, during the depths of the pandemic. He scored occasional rave reviews as he rolled out billions in emergency spending and his approval ratings soared. Now here he was, wildly unpopular in polls and his own caucus, announcing his resignation plan two weeks before DONALD TRUMP moves back into the White House and possibly a few months shy of the electoral showdown he craved against PIERRE POILIEVRE. As he turned on his heel and walked back into his official residence, Playbook's notebook was filled with notes — messy ones, on account of the icy temps. Highlights from POLITICO Canada coverage: — Canada’s Justin Trudeau era is coming to an end.
— Watch: Trudeau resigns.
— 11 moments in Trudeau’s rise and fall.
— Here’s who could replace the PM.
— Trudeau in winter. For POLITICO Pro subscribers: — Now who speaks for Canada? WHAT COMES NEXT — Three words are likely to define the second session of the 44th Parliament when it opens March 24: nasty, brutish and short. The minority government is unlikely to survive that week before an election campaign tests the mettle of a brand-new Liberal leader praying for a sustained bounce in the polls. The Liberals don't have a dance partner to keep them in power. Any of three votes scheduled for that week could express non-confidence and trigger an election. The only question is which comes first. — Throne speech: Prorogation means Governor General MARY SIMON will read a Speech from the Throne on March 24 that launches a brand-new session and outlines the government's agenda — an unofficial campaign launch for the new Liberal leader. MPs can vote on amendments. Those votes aren't necessarily matters of confidence, but opposition parties could draft language that could only be interpreted that way. Sticklers remind us the government doesn't need to call a vote on the Throne Speech. — Supply bill: Treasury Board President GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR will have only two days to unveil spending estimates that require parliamentary approval. The interim supply period — that is, one of four annual deadlines for spending approval — expires March 26. Any vote on a supply bill is a confidence vote. But the government might not last that long. — Opposition motion: Government House Leader KARINA GOULD will be forced to grant an "opposition day" in advance of the supply vote — a standard part of House rules. The debate and vote on that opposition motion must also conclude by March 26. — Days of reckoning: Keep an eye on the House chamber in the early evening of Tuesday, March 25, or Wednesday, March 26. Whether it's a vote on the Throne Speech, an opposition motion or a supply bill, the government's fate is almost certainly sealed. → Bottom line: Tack on a campaign that must run between 36 and 50 days, with a voting day on a Monday, and two options emerge: May 5 or May 12. — A Singh-sized caveat: New Democrats could entertain a change of heart. If JAGMEET SINGH's crew decides to prop up a new Liberal PM's weary government, all bets are off. — Alternate theory: Trudeau's successor bypasses the House entirely and asks Simon to dissolve Parliament before the opposition gets a chance to pull the plug. BILLS, BILLS, BILLS — Prorogation ends the parliamentary life of bills and committee studies that power the work of the place. Happy trails to legislation dealing with online harms, artificial intelligence and digital privacy rights, cybersecurity, First Nations clean water, elections rules, citizenship rules and military justice. The government can't force through controversial changes to capital gains or anything in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement. Prorogation also marks the final death of C-234, the CPC private member's bill that looked to expand farmer exemptions for the federal carbon levy. — In limbo: Justice MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE is staring down a Jan. 31 deadline for her final report on foreign interference in the past two federal elections. Singh told POLITICO last year that Parliament would "ideally" act on at least some of Hogue's recommendations before the country goes to the polls. FOR THE RECORD — Public Safety Minister DAVID MCGUINTY's office insists the work of government will go on — including a high-stakes border plan meant to mollify DONALD TRUMP's concerns and fend off a looming tariff threat. “While Parliament is prorogued, the Cabinet and the public service continue to be fully operational," spokesperson GABRIEL BRUNET told Playbook. "Canada’s Border Plan contains a series of measures which do not require parliamentary approval," Brunet added, pointing to the end of "flagpoling," a land preclearance pilot project in the U.S., and a recent border security exercise with Ontario. LEADERSHIP CHATTER — The list of potential Trudeau successors is getting unwieldy. Some camps are already shopping around would-be contenders. Playbook's phone rang Monday afternoon with a JONATHAN WILKINSON booster on the other end, game to road-test the energy minister's bona fides in advance of the leadership gauntlet. Wilkinson is, the advocate close to him said, "considering" a run. The field has quickly congealed into a crowded field of ministers, a former premier and a longshot former MP. Few have openly staked a claim, but none has categorically swatted rumors.
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