JOHNSON’S MARGIN CALL House Republicans already have one of the narrowest majorities in congressional history, and it’s about to get even tighter. With George Santos (R-N.Y.) gone, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) planning to resign at the end of the year and Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) exiting soon after that, Speaker Mike Johnson will have little room to maneuver if he hopes to pass partisan bills once lawmakers come back in January. With those members gone and full attendance otherwise, Johnson could stand to lose only two GOP votes to a unified Democratic minority. But will it matter? Here’s a few factors to keep in mind as we look ahead to 2024: — A fluid timeline: Republicans might only be down three members for a few weeks. The special election to replace Santos is set for Feb. 13, though it’s completely up in the air whether the GOP will retain the seat. (Local party officials yesterday chose Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip to face former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi.) Because Johnson and McCarthy have yet to officially resign, the ensuing special elections have yet to be scheduled. There are rumblings in California that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could consolidate the race with the March 5 primary, while in Ohio, GOP Gov. Mike DeWine will have broad latitude to schedule the election for Johnson’s replacement. Republicans are favored to retain both seats. Also, keep in mind that Democrats are expecting a vacancy of their own: Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) said he plans to resign in February. — A bipartisan to-do list: There’s no doubt that both McCarthy and Johnson have had trouble passing party-line bills in 2023. One stunning indicator: Conservative hard-liners defied leadership and defeated rules for four bills this year. Instead, major legislation has passed routinely with Democratic votes. The Fiscal Responsibility Act, which raised the debt ceiling and set discretionary spending caps, advanced overwhelmingly after 52 Democrats joined with Republicans to pass a rule bringing it to the floor. More recently, both McCarthy and Johnson have moved to bypass the House Rules Committee entirely by bringing spending bills and, most recently, the National Defense Authorization Act to a vote under suspension of the rules, requiring a two-thirds vote. Looking at 2024’s must-pass bills, it’s easy to see Johnson finding Democratic help once again. There’s a bipartisan path to passing appropriations legislation around twin Jan. 19/Feb. 2 deadlines, and any deal to pass a supplemental tackling Ukraine aid and border security will by definition be bipartisan (more on that below). Similarly, there will likely be Democratic support for FAA reauthorization ahead of a likely March 8 deadline, while the controversy over renewal of the Section 702 surveillance program has crossed party lines, meaning any solution reached ahead of an April deadline will have to involve both sides of the aisle. — One big exception: On most issues Johnson will have to deal with next year, the biggest factor constraining him won’t be finding the raw votes but internal Republicans conference politics. It’s not clear how long a fractious right flank of the GOP will continue to give Johnson grace, despite a delicate balancing act. Relying on Democratic votes to pass a Sept. 31 continuing resolution set McCarthy's ouster into motion, and additional lopsided suspension votes could spell doom for Johnson, too. “I'm just going to be blunt: I think some of the staff is not looking at this thing the way it should be,” said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said of the supplemental negotiations. “And I've voiced my disagreements with staff on some of these issues." If anything has united the House GOP in 2023, meanwhile, it’s targeting Democrats. Republicans stuck together to censure Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), and so, too, did they stay united this week in launching a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. But it’s completely unclear whether the narrowest House majorities in recent memory will agree on actually impeaching Biden. They’ve got a little bit of time to figure that out: Investigators are hoping to make a decision about whether or not to pursue and draft articles of impeachment by late January. — Daniella Diaz, Anthony Adragna and Katherine Tully-McManus
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