GOOD MORNING FROM BAKU, where the 29th meeting of the Conference of the Parties — aka the U.N. COP climate talks — kicks off today. I’m Suzanne Lynch , and together with POLITICO’s top team of climate and energy reporters, I’ll be guiding you through the next few weeks of climate negotiations taking place in Azerbaijan’s capital. The former Soviet republic has followed the lead of the UAE, which last year proudly hosted the world’s most important climate change forum despite being one of the world’s top fossil fuel exporters. Scandal hits: Before the conference even starts, Azerbaijan stands accused of using its position as COP host to boost its own fossil fuel industry — an undercover investigation by NGO Global Witness appears to show top COP official Elnur Soltanov negotiating a fossil fuel deal with a man posing as an investor. Here for the long haul: Stay tuned to Global Playbook throughout the next two weeks for coverage of Azerbaijan’s PR nightmare as it tries to present itself as a progressive world player and champion of the green agenda — despite gigantic oil fields lying just out of sight off Baku’s coast on the Caspian sea. COP29 LINE-UP ON THE GUEST LIST: THE TALIBAN. Yes, Afghanistan’s de-facto government, which is barred from taking up a seat at the U.N. General Assembly and has tried and failed to attend previous COPs, is sending a delegation to Baku, AFP and Reuters report. WHO ELSE IS COMING: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni; British Prime Minister Keir Starmer; China's climate envoy Liu Zhenmin; former U.S. Vice President Al Gore; former U.N. Human Rights High Commissioner Mary Robinson; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy; COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; U.S. climate chief John Podesta; Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; Polish President Andrzej Duda; President of Kenya William Ruto; Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán; President of Maldives Mohamed Muizzu; Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić ; President of the European Council Charles Michel; President of Finland Alexander Stubb; President of Rwanda Paul Kagame; Crown Prince of Jordan Al Hussein bin Abdullah II; Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen; Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis; Prime Minister of Pakistan Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif. WHO’S NOT: U.S. President Joe Biden; U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris; U.S. President-elect Donald Trump; French President Emmanuel Macron; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi; Chinese President Xi Jinping; Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa; IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva; Australian PM Anthony Albanese; Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof; climate activist Greta Thunberg. GLOBAL SNUB COP OUT: The Earth may be hurtling toward its hottest year on record, but many of the world’s top leaders are giving this COP a pass — a telling indication of where climate change features on the agenda right now. Better things to do: Some leaders who featured on the official schedule as recently as last week have dropped out, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Only two leaders of the G7 group — Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Britain’s Keir Starmer — are expected to attend, with the leaders of Canada, France, Germany and Japan staying away. As my colleague Karl Mathiesen writes in this walk-up piece: “The COP29 conference is doomed to be defined not only by Trump’s return to power, but also by the absence of those who might resist him.” Whither Europe? The decision by von der Leyen to skip COP29 appears a particular dereliction of duty. During her first five-year term as European Commission boss, the EU’s de-facto chief executive launched the European Green Deal, casting the bloc as the world’s leader on climate change and pledging to slash greenhouse emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Changing times: But Russia's war in Ukraine and pressure from European businesses and farmers have forced a rethink of the EU's priorities. Climate policies barely got a mention in von der Leyen’s reelection campaign for a second five-year term earlier this year, though the EU’s incoming Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra insisted last week there would be no backtracking on existing EU targets. Stepping up: But as the West grapples for climate leadership in the face of an incoming Trump presidency in the U.S. (more on that just below), there are plenty of upstart global powers prepared to take its place. From Turkey to Pakistan, UAE to Saudi Arabia, some of the world’s most ambitious countries (and fossil fuel producers) are out in force at COP29 as they muscle in on the climate change conversation. TRUMP CRASHES THE PARTY REALPOLITIK: Donald Trump's decisive U.S. election win is the top talking point here in Baku, as the world gets to grips with the head-spinning policy implications of his second stint in the White House. As Karl Mathiesen, Sara Schonhardt and Zia Weise write, Trump "will, once again, be a major determinant of whether the world slows climate change fast enough."
Track record: The former president took the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement in 2017, picked a fight with climate activist Greta Thunberg during his first stint in the White House and dismissed climate change as a “hoax” as recently as 2022.
“Drill, baby, drill”: Trump shows no sign of reversing his positions this time around, promising a new wave of oil and gas drilling on the campaign trail, and championing America's “liquid gold” in his victory speech last week. He has also promised to slash U.S. energy bills by 50 percent in the first 12 months of his presidency, which, as Scott Waldman reports, is essentially an impossible goal given commodity prices are set on a global market.
Buckle up: President-elect Trump’s transition team for climate and the environment is already getting to work, considering radical changes to the United States Environmental Protection Agency and examining how he can rip up existing climate rules through executive orders. Former fossil fuel lobbyists and top officials in the first Trump administration, David Bernhardt and Andrew Wheeler, have started preparing as Trump gets ready for office.
Reality check: In Trump's sights: The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Joe Biden’s massive government clean-energy spending program. But even some Republicans are wary of tinkering with a program that has brought popular subsidies and jobs to voters in their states. A lot of the manufacturing initiatives that benefit from the IRA’s tax breaks and other incentives are due to come online during Trump’s presidency, as POLITICO reported last week, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has pledged to take a “scalpel not a sledgehammer” to the signature climate investment legislation.
Keep calm and carry on: The U.S. delegation arriving here in Baku includes Biden’s climate policy chief John Podesta, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Agriculture Secretary Thomas Vilsack and White House national climate adviser Ali Zaidi — all of whom are heading for the exit door. They will make the case for America’s commitment to responsible climate policy, but will anybody be listening?
Sunny side up: The EU’s incoming climate chief Hoekstra, who spoke to Podesta Friday, put a positive spin on things before departing for Baku, arguing in an interview that Europe has “a long tradition of working successfully with both Democrats and Republicans, and we’re going to stick to that tradition.” The EU will “continue fruitful engagement with a range of congressmen, senators and also the next U.S. administration,” he said. Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise have the story.
SHOW ME THE MONEY FINDING THE CASH: One reason for the tepid attendance list at this year’s COP is the prevailing view that next year’s gathering in Brazil is the big bazooka, given that's where countries will sign off on finance commitments through 2035. (The fact that summit will be held in sunny Belém rather than the less glamorous Baku may also have something to do with it.)
All about the money: Here in Baku, it’s all about how to finance the energy transition, as negotiators settle on a successor to the $100 billion per year climate finance target agreed back at the Copenhagen COP in 2009 — not only the thorny issue of how much, but also who should pay.
Jargon of the week: It’s time to familiarize yourself with a new acronym: NCQG— “new collective quantified goal.” That’s the name of the target number that will replace the existing $100 billion floor to help countries most affected by climate change after 2025. According to a report just out from the U.N., developing countries need a whopping $1.1 trillion from next year as they battle the effects of a warming planet; expect lots of haggling over the next two weeks as negotiators work out the numbers.
Sharing the load: The other looming question is which countries should contribute. The world has changed fundamentally since financing targets were decided back in the 1990s. Developed countries, which historically were the big contributors to climate change, argue it's time for China and the Gulf states to cough up, given their economic clout (and emissions). It’s a point countries like Canada and Germany have pushed— but an argument that may be more difficult to make at this COP, given their leaders have chosen not to show up.
U.S.-shaped hole: The U.S. election has also injected a new element into the discussion. Any move by Washington to shirk its climate finance responsibilities would force others to fill the gap. Trump already pulled out of the Paris climate agreement first time around; it's possible he'll do so again. More on that here by Sara Schonhardt.
WELCOME TO BAKU
WEATHER: High of 15C/59F, low of 9C/48F; cloudy.
GUILTY CONSCIENCE: Delegates arriving at the international terminal of Baku’s swanky Heydar Aliyev International Airport — a cavernous structure named after the long-reigning Soviet chief and father of the current president of Azerbaijan — were greeted with a not-so-subtle hint to check their carbon footprint as they waited for their bags.
A giant QR code prompted passengers to calculate their flight emissions — offering them the option to cough up for a noble cause. A few dollars for a mangrove restoration project in Pakistan, anyone?
SCRAMBLE TO THE FINISH: Attendees at last year’s COP in Dubai will remember that the decision to hold this year’s event in Azerbaijan was a last-minute, compromise choice after Russia blocked EU countries from hosting the event. Azeri officials have been scrambling over the past year to get the show on the road, with the UAE (last year’s host) and Brazil (next year’s) lending helping hands.
Brazilian presence: Brazilian President Lula da Silva, who’s preparing to host the G20 next week, had been expected to travel to Baku but canceled — the third international engagement he'll miss after suffering a small brain hemorrhage as a result of a fall last month. (He also skipped the recent BRICS summit in Russia and COP16 in Colombia; doctors say he’s fit for duty.)
Silva to the rescue: But Brazil's environment minister, Marina Silva, will be making the journey — twice. She's arriving tonight, will be heading back to Rio for next week's G20, before returning to Azerbaijan for the final stretch of the negotiations next week.
AGENDA
All times are local. Full agenda here.
— La Ruta del Clima: Addressing loss and damage, reparations and climate debt: Human rights obligation, not a charity!”; Press Conference Room 2; Natavan, 9 a.m.
— Official opening, with handover by COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. Speeches by COP29 chief Mukhtar Babayev and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell; Plenary 1, Nizami, 11 a.m.
— In conversation with Patrick Holden, founding director of the Sustainable Food Trust; Extreme Hangout, Green Zone, noon.
— Greenpeace International; Press Conference; Natavan, 3 p.m.
— The Climate Center: Cap & Trade Policy: Getting the Right Balance; Press Conference Room; Natavan, 3:30 p.m.
— John Podesta, senior adviser to the U.S. president for clean energy innovation and implementation, press conference; Karabakh Room; 5:30 p.m.
— Bloomberg Opening Night Cocktail Reception; Bloomberg Hub, Baku Business Center, Neftchilar Avenue; 6 p.m.
— UNFCCC: Towards Full Implementation: Advancing the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism; Side Event Room 8; 6:30 p.m.
— Goals House, Opening night Night Cap; Goals House, Muğam Klub, 9 Hagigat Rzayeva Street, Baku; 10 p.m.
THANKS: Global Playbook couldn't happen without Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich.
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