Haley tries to will a two-person race into existence

Jan 16, 2024

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WINTER WEATHER — House votes were canceled for today due to the snow, though the Senate is still due to convene later today as Congress gets perilously close to a government shutdown.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Iowa.

Nikki Haley’s surprise move a day after finishing third in Iowa threatens to torpedo two planned Granite State debates. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

ON TO THE GRANITE STATE — In the wake of DONALD TRUMP’s commanding victory in Iowa last night, the rest of the Republican presidential field is scrambling to stay afloat, while the former president sails onward toward perhaps his toughest test yet in New Hampshire.

ASA HUTCHINSON became the latest casualty of the Republican Party’s full-throated embrace of Trumpism, as the former Arkansas governor dropped out of the race after receiving only 191 votes across all of Iowa, Kelly Garrity reports. “My message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current front runner did not sell in Iowa,” he said in a statement (or perhaps an understatement). His departure finally leaves the race with none of its most vocal Trump critics.

Trump enjoyed the spoils of his win: Stocks with ties to him, like Digital World Acquisition and Phunware, leapt this morning, per Reuters’ Medha Singh. The strength of support from his base, which once wavered in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, now looks yet again like “one of the most durable forces in American politics,” NYT’s Michael Bender and Katie Glueck write.

Of course, New Hampshire may provide a less hospitable electorate for Trump. But his allies are planning to go all out against Haley in the final week before the first-in-the-nation primary, NBC’s Natasha Korecki, Matt Dixon and Jane Timm report. It’ll be “a level of vitriol … that she hasn’t yet seen,” though Haley plans to step up her Trump criticisms, too.

“Nikki Haley is a fictional character who isn’t ready for the bright lights or the big stage,” Trump aide JASON MILLER tells NBC.

Perhaps counterintuitively, Haley — who has benefited like no other candidate from the primary debates this cycle — announced this morning that she’ll refuse to participate in any more without Trump or President JOE BIDEN on the stage, per Kierra Frazier. “We’ve had five great debates in this campaign. Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them,” she said in a statement. “He has nowhere left to hide.”

Haley’s surprise move a day after finishing third in Iowa threatens to torpedo two planned Granite State debates, from ABC News/WMUR-TV on Thursday and CNN on Sunday. Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS lashed out on X, calling Haley “afraid” to debate him and saying he would “honor my commitments.”

But it’s not clear where the TV networks can go from here. An ABC News spokesperson said they’ve given Trump and Haley a formal deadline of 5 p.m. today to commit to Thursday’s debate. (The odds seem long, given Trump’s steadfast refusal to debate all cycle.) A network executive told us that though they’re still planning to host the debate, they’ll need more than one candidate to do it. DeSantis and CHRIS CHRISTIE, who’s since dropped out, were the only ones who had officially told ABC they were committed to the debate, while Haley’s campaign had told the network they’d wait until Iowa to decide, per the exec. CNN declined to comment on the record; they already have a DeSantis town hall on the books for tonight.

“There’s a debate?” a Trump spokesperson told Semafor in response.

More reading: “After Iowa, Trump Is Back to Command the National Psyche. He Never Actually Left,” by NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer and Maggie Haberman … “Inside the ‘weird’ write-in campaign needed to help Biden win New Hampshire,” by NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald in Portsmouth … “Trump’s Iowa Romp Could Help Biden’s Campaign With a Big Problem,” by The Messenger’s Dan Merica and Amie Parnes … “Ron DeSantis’s Cold, Hard Reality,” by The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey

GATHERING HUNTER — HUNTER BIDEN may get at least a temporary reprieve, as the House Rules Committee has postponed a vote today on contempt of Congress resolutions against him in light of ongoing talks with his team over a deposition, per CNN’s Kristin Wilson.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have now triggered a series of reprisals from the U.S. and its allies. | Sayed Hassan/Getty Images

1. WAR REPORT: “U.S. carries out additional strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen,” by Lara Seligman: “The U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen on Tuesday, destroying four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the rebels were ready to launch, according to five U.S. officials. … The Tuesday attacks were on a much smaller scale and ‘dynamic’ in nature, meaning they were not pre-planned and rather taken in self-defense against missiles that presented an imminent threat to international shipping.”

2. UP NEXT AT SCOTUS: CHARLES KOCH and his Americans for Prosperity are quietly behind what could be a blockbuster case at the Supreme Court tomorrow, NYT’s Hiroko Tabuchi reports. The dispute over a monitoring fee for fishermen in New Jersey gives the court’s conservative supermajority an opportunity to undermine the federal government’s regulatory authority across a huge swath of policy areas.

And the fishermen’s pro bono lawyers at Cause for Action, Tabuchi reveals, work for AFP, while their law firm’s board of directors includes a top attorney who’s represented Koch Industries. “A spokeswoman at Cause of Action said the group was within its constitutional rights to not disclose its donors.” But “[r]olling back the power of the state to regulate business has been a longstanding goal of conservative legal activists and their funders.”

3. WHAT THE COURT ISN’T TOUCHING: “Supreme Court stays out of fight over transgender student bathroom access,” by NBC’s Lawrence Hurley: “The court left in place an appeals court ruling that required a middle school in Martinsville, Indiana, to allow a transgender boy to use the bathroom that corresponds with his gender identity.” … “Supreme Court rejects antitrust fight challenging Apple’s app store,” by Josh Sisco: “The high court, without explaining, said it will not hear appeals of a lower court ruling in a case brought in 2020 by Epic Games.”

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4. LET’S MAKE A DEAL: Reactions are starting to roll in to the newly announced major tax legislation deal from Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Chair JASON SMITH (R-Mo.). The bipartisan reform would re-expand the child tax credit and resurrect business tax breaks — see more details here from Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig.

But there are plenty of hurdles yet to overcome for the bill to become law. There hasn’t been much vocal reaction yet from either Senate Republicans or House Democrats, both of which will be crucial to passage. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, who hasn’t yet committed to supporting it, will meet with Smith today, per Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman. Senate Finance ranking member MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho) doesn’t sound totally on board yet, calling the deal a “thoughtful starting point.” And the White House is staying non-committal for now, too.

5. THE TRUMP DEFAMATION TRIAL: For the first time in decades, Trump and E. JEAN CARROLL were together in person today as both attended the opening of her latest defamation trial against him in NYC, stemming from her allegation that he raped her in the 1990s. After a back-and-forth between Trump’s lawyer and Judge LEWIS KAPLAN over adjourning the trial on Thursday, the courtroom got down to jury selection. Kaplan instructed possible jurors that the trial — which will set damages for Trump’s defamation of Carroll — will take about three to five days, and the jury will stay anonymous. Live updates from CNN

6. TOMORROW’S BIG VOTE: “Bernie Sanders to force vote on Israel’s human rights practices in Gaza,” by WaPo’s Liz Goodwin: “Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (Vt.), an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is forcing the politically tricky vote using a mechanism in U.S. foreign assistance law that requires the State Department to look into human rights practices of nations receiving U.S. aid. … The resolution would not alter U.S. aid to Israel, but it is still facing opposition from the Biden administration and many Democrats, who have raised concerns about the message the vote would send.”

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PLAYBOOKERS

John Fetterman is writing a memoir, “Unfettered,” with Buzz Bissinger.

Kathy Hochul raised $6.3 million in the latter half of 2023.

Mike Johnson has concerns about Louisiana’s new proposed congressional map.

John Barrasso endorsed Bernie Moreno in the Ohio Senate race.

TRANSITIONS — Brian McMillan is now VP of federal affairs for the Computer & Communications Industry Association. He most recently was chief counsel and legislative director for Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). … Michael Falencki is joining Cornerstone Government Affairs’ federal government relations team. He previously was deputy staff director of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. … Chrissy Harbin is now an energy policy adviser for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). She previously was VP for external affairs at Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. …

… Rick Van Buren is joining Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies’ federal practice as a senior principal. He most recently was senior health policy counsel to the House Energy and Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). … Harrison Fields will be assistant director of media and public relations at the Heritage Foundation. He currently is senior adviser for comms for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). … Justin Murphy is joining BakerHostetler as a partner. He most recently was a partner with McDermott Will & Emery.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Beth Schoenbach, VP of comms at Autos Drive America, and Stephen Keen, SVP of congressional relations at Independent Community Bankers of America, welcomed Nora Louise Keen, their second child, on Friday.

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