| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | ‘NO TIME FOR RETRIBUTION’ WAS SO LAST WEEK — Scoop from Daniel Lippman: “Former President DONALD TRUMP and people in his inner circle have told down-ballot Republican candidates not to hire Republican strategist JEFF ROE or his political consulting firm after Roe worked to elect RON DeSANTIS.” NEW JMART — “‘MAGA Nightmare’: Trump Loyalists Move to Head Off Haley VP Pick,” by Jonathan Martin: “Trump has been told, by his son DON and others, that picking [NIKKI] HALEY would ensure a significant backlash from his populist base. Yet that hasn’t stopped the former president, as he is wont to do, from quizzing people about her to test their reactions.” Come for the Mar-a-Lago palace intrigue, stay for JMart’s rundown of potential VP candidates. IN CASE YOU HAVE DAVOS FOMO — “Why the Davos Smart Set Sounds Dumb,” by John Harris: “Here’s what they don’t have, most of them, any more than you do: Original or penetrating insights into the large political currents buffeting the United States and the world. … It is not that the observations and arguments are notably dumb, though it is rare to hear something arrestingly smart. The signature of most conversations about current events is how emphatically commonplace they are.”
|  House Speaker Mike Johnson (center), flanked by Reps. Mike Turner, Mike Rogers and Mike McCaul, speaks to reporters outside the West Wing of the White House, Jan. 17, 2024, following their meeting with President Joe Biden. | Susan Walsh/AP | THE ELUSIVE COMPROMISE — If you’ve been around D.C. for long enough, you’ve seen your fair share of big bipartisan meetings on complicated, hard issues where everyone leaves all smiles, saying it was productive. In that sense, yesterday’s meeting between President JOE BIDEN and leading members of Congress, including the Big Four, was no different. The meeting was “very positive,” said Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER. It was “balanced and constructive,” one White House official told Playbook on the phone last night. And yet, just because a meeting is productive doesn’t mean that a deal is close. That’s where things stand right now. The two sides remain far apart on a compromise that will sate both House Republicans’ desire for border security funding and Senate Democrats’ desire for aid to Ukraine. INSIDE THE MEETING: The president’s portion of the tete-a-tete was quintessential Biden as he waxed poetic about the “indispensable role of American leadership on the world stage,” another White House official told Playbook. “He really implored members of Congress to take this responsibility very seriously.” National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and DNI AVRIL HAINES gave a presentation with granular, concrete examples of what would happen if Congress doesn’t pass a bill with Ukraine funding — and do it fast. While that portion of the conversation was classified, we are told the two pointed to upcoming dates on the calendar at which time Ukraine will run out of specific defense capabilities absent any new funding from Congress. The talks highlighted an odd quirk of the negotiations: There were way too many people in the room to actually negotiate in any substantive way. We’re told that in the meeting, there was broad agreement that Ukraine aid had to be passed. The biggest hangup, though, continues to be border funding — a topic that came up when members of Congress were given the chance to speak their mind. Republicans, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON told reporters after the confab, “understand that there’s concern about the safety, security and sovereignty of Ukraine, but the American people have those same concerns about our own domestic sovereignty. We must insist … that the border be the top priority.” Yet a White House official told Playbook that in the room, “Republicans, including Johnson, didn’t draw a red line on H.R. 2,” their border security proposal — which perhaps contributed to Schumer’s estimation after the meeting that the chances for a deal are “a little bit greater than half now, and that’s the first time I can say that.” OUTSIDE THE MEETING: There are plenty of reasons to be more pessimistic than Schumer about the outlook for a deal. In his first interview after the meeting, Johnson told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham that he and Trump had been talking about the border “pretty frequently,” giving credence to crescendoing rumors that he’s been consulting with Trump on the issue. Unaddressed was step two of those rumors: that at the eleventh hour, Trump would intervene to kill the deal by making it politically toxic for any Republican to support a compromise. (That hour is nearly here.) Still, Johnson noted that the text of the bill wasn’t out and suggested that conservatives should “reserve judgment” until then. But the amount of pressure Johnson is getting from the right — with Trump leading it — is going to be enormous. At the end of the day, hard-right Republicans have already threatened a motion to vacate if Johnson passes a Ukraine funding bill, and they also want him to go much further on immigration than is actually possible with a Democratic Senate and White House. Even so, in the White House, there’s a sense that Johnson will eventually be unable to withstand the pressure pushing him in the other direction, and that he’ll make a deal, especially if the Senate can pass a bill in a bipartisan fashion. But Johnson isn’t the only one facing political pressure. The Biden team has its own (very real) concerns. Progressive and immigration advocacy groups “are still very concerned about how much the White House is willing to give away on parole,” as one person familiar with the angst told Playbook last night. “The White House knows how important this authority is at the end of the day for both Republican and Democratic presidents. The question is how much authority are they willing to cede? And then, at the end of the day, for what?” More on the liberal angst from Inside Congress Another person familiar with White House’s thinking brushed off those concerns: “Progressives constantly worry about what the president is going to give away in congressional negotiations. And then he delivers on something beyond a lot of their wildest imagination.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | THE ‘WHAT IF’ SCENARIO: So what does the Biden administration do if Congress actually doesn’t pass a bill with Ukraine support in it? What’s Plan B? The administration has been reticent to show its cards because that would sap the sense of non-negotiability about Ukraine aid. But Biden aides assure Playbook they are prepared for that scenario. “It’s not that we’re not prepared. It’s just that the alternative is very bleak for Ukraine,” a White House official told Playbook. “We have not gone into a lot of specifics because we don’t want to let the Russians know what Ukraine’s potential shortfalls would be.” The official added that intelligence support, guidance and advice would obviously still continue no matter what Congress does or doesn’t do. It’s the military, economic and humanitarian aid that would be on the chopping block.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will brief the Foreign Relations Committee behind closed doors at 1:45 p.m. The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up the effort to find HUNTER BIDEN in contempt of Congress. The Homeland Security Committee will hold its latest impeachment hearing for DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS at 9:30 a.m. 3 things to watch …
- House Republican Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK is the latest target in the ongoing censure wars, with fellow New York Rep. DAN GOLDMAN (D) introducing a resolution yesterday calling for the sanction after she referred to jailed Jan. 6 rioters as “hostages,” among other alleged misdeeds. The resolution is not currently privileged, meaning no floor vote is imminent. A Stefanik aide called the move “desperate.”
- The big bipartisan tax deal moved a little closer toward reality yesterday with the release of bill text and a Joint Tax score ahead of a scheduled Ways and Means markup tomorrow. The bill — which comes within $262 million of balancing over 10 years — got an important vote of confidence yesterday from Rep. RICHIE NEAL (Mass.), the top Ways and Means Democrat, but many key senators continue to keep their powder dry.
- What will Louisiana do about its congressional map? Johnson publicly complained Tuesday about the possibility that Republicans in his home state might pass a map resulting in the “unnecessary surrender” of a GOP seat (most likely that of Rep. GARRET GRAVES). But the alternative could risk a federal judge drawing lines without lawmakers’ input, and the Louisiana Senate yesterday voted to move ahead with the map Johnson dissed. The state House will act in the coming days.
At the White House Biden will travel to Raleigh, North Carolina, where he’ll speak about his economic/infrastructure agenda at 2:15 p.m., before returning to the White House in the evening. VP KAMALA HARRIS will have a conversation about preventing gun violence, moderated by Kansas City Mayor QUINTON LUCAS, at 2 p.m. at the U.S. Conference of Mayors’ winter meeting at the Capital Hilton.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis speaks at a campaign event at Bella Love Event Center on Jan. 11, 2024 in Ames, Iowa. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | DeSANTIS’ BIG NEW HAMPSHIRE MOVE — DeSantis is looking past the Granite State, moving most of his campaign staffers to South Carolina and spending at least half the days before the New Hampshire primary in Florida or South Carolina, CBS’ Aaron Navarro reports. He faced long odds in New Hampshire, but the move still stings, Kimberly Leonard and Lisa Kashinsky report from Hampton Beach. The “desperate” decision — along with Never Back Down’s layoffs — amounts to a last-ditch effort to knock Haley out in her home state, but it also opens up more opportunity for her in New Hampshire, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher, Kellen Browning, Maggie Haberman and Nicholas Nehamas write. But will Haley be able to pull off a New Hampshire victory against Trump, even one on one? A new Saint Anselm poll finds Trump up 52% to 38%. On the ground, Republicans are scratching their heads over Haley’s sudden pullback — ditching televised debates and voter questions right when some think she should be going all out, NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Henry Gomez and Allan Smith report from Manchester. (Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU tried last night to lower expectations for Haley to a “strong second” place.) Trump stepped up his attacks on Haley last night — arguing that she’d be an electoral albatross for the GOP, contrary to public polling — and in recent social media posts, including some with racist dog whistles, CNN’s Eric Bradner and Kristen Holmes report. His speeches hammer her more on substance and policy, Alex Isenstadt, Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison report from Portsmouth. Haley tried to get around Trump’s criticism with a new video yesterday that showed all his past praise for his former ambassador to the U.N., Meridith and Natalie scooped from Manchester. But in a new POLITICO Mag piece this morning, Dante Scala explains why New Hampshire is tough for Haley: For all the state’s famous moderates, she desperately needs to improve her numbers with the conservatives who still make up the majority of the primary electorate there. On the substance: “Some New Hampshire residents want better answers from the 2024 candidates on the opioid crisis,” by AP’s Holly Ramer in Rochester More top reads:
MORE POLITICS JUST IN — “John Fetterman Endorses Andy Kim in High-Stakes New Jersey Senate Primary,” by NYT’s Annie Karni: “In an interview, he explained his decision to intervene in a primary to take out a fellow sitting senator, stating bluntly that ‘anything would be an upgrade over [BOB] MENENDEZ.’” NOT SO FRIENDLY FIRE — “Nancy Mace’s former top aide eyes a run against her,” by Olivia Beavers: “DAN HANLON, who served as chief of staff to [Rep. NANCY] MACE until late last month, is meeting with potential donors and potential people for his team as he weighs running against her.” LOOK WHO’S BACK — Former Rep. DENNIS KUCINICH filed to run for Congress against Rep. MAX MILLER (R-Ohio), apparently as an independent, per The Plain Dealer’s Sabrina Eaton. CONGRESS
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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol Jan. 17, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN — Whether Congress can avert a (brief) government shutdown is going to come down to the wire: Senate leaders teed up votes today on a continuing resolution, which they hope will pass with just enough time to get through the House before funding expires, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes report. The agreement includes amendment votes from GOP Sens. ROGER MARSHALL (Kan.), MIKE BRAUN (Ind.) and RAND PAUL (Ky.), starting at 12:30 p.m. Quick passage in the House — leadership noticed a possible vote today — would get it to Biden to keep several agencies open into March. The other big time pressure: a looming snowstorm (the second this week!) that could mess with lawmakers’ travel home. “We have to get this done by Friday,” Schumer said yesterday. But anti-abortion advocates are frustrated that in this spending fight, and others this year, further restrictions on abortion face an uphill battle, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Meredith Lee Hill report this morning. Moderate Republicans (to say nothing of the Democratic-led Senate) stand in the way of the policy riders, and conservatives both on and off the Hill are losing their patience. That’s a dynamic Johnson will have to navigate tomorrow when he speaks at the March for Life.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   We are retail’s greatest advocates, uniting an industry of leaders and boundary breakers around complex issues and bold opportunities. Learn more. | | | TRUMP CARDS EXCHANGE OF THE DAY — “Muttered Insults, Stern Warnings: Inside Trump’s Second Defamation Trial,” by NYT’s Benjamin Weiser, Maria Cramer and Kate Christobek: “‘I hope I don’t have to consider excluding you from the trial,’ Judge [LEWIS] KAPLAN said. ‘I understand you’re probably very eager for me to do that.’ Mr. Trump threw his hands up. ‘I would love it,’ he said. ‘I know you would,’ Judge Kaplan said. ‘You just can’t control yourself in these circumstances, apparently.’” AMERICA AND THE WORLD ANOTHER ONE — The U.S. yet again bombarded Houthi positions in Yemen yesterday, AP’s Tara Copp and Lolita Baldor report. “The strikes were launched from the Red Sea and hit 14 missiles that the command deemed an ‘imminent threat,’” as Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships to protest the Israel-Hamas war continue. MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “Washington to Israel: Turn the lights back on in Gaza,” by Joseph Gedeon and Maggie Miller: “The White House is leaning on Israel to restore internet and mobile connections in the Gaza Strip as the blackout lingers.” JUDICIARY SQUARE
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Neil Gorsuch speaks during a meeting on Capitol Hill March 1, 2017, in Washington. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images | IT MAKES NO DEFERENCE — Several of the Supreme Court’s conservative justices sounded ready at oral arguments to undo the “Chevron deference” standard, a long-held conservative legal goal that would majorly limit federal agencies’ regulatory power, WaPo’s Ann Marimow reports. But the likeliest swing votes — Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS and Justice AMY CONEY BARRETT — offered mixed signals as to whether they’d overturn the judicial precedent that’s stood for four decades or merely limit it. Either way, the outcome looks likely to shift some power over decision-making about health care, the environment, markets and more from expert federal bureaucrats to the courts, particularly with Congress so gridlocked. For Justice NEIL GORSUCH, who has already called for overturning the precedent, the matter has some personal/family import, CNN’s Joan Biskupic reports. His mother, ANNE GORSUCH, was a crusading anti-regulatory figure as EPA chief in the RONALD REAGAN administration — and the Chevron ruling in 1984 came directly out of a legal challenge to EPA policy under her tenure. POLICY CORNER LET THE SUNSHINE IN — “Inside Biden’s secret surveillance court,” by Alfred Ng and John Sakellariadis BEYOND THE BELTWAY UVALDE ANSWERS COMING TODAY — “Robb Elementary shooting victims’ families prepare for Department of Justice report on law enforcement response,” by KSAT-TV’s Leigh Waldman and Joe Arredondo
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Mike Lee reposted a suggestion that the RNC pipe bomb was a false flag. Jeff Zients apologized to Asa Hutchinson for a snarky DNC statement about him. Jamie Raskin wants Senate Dems to use their subpoena power on Donald Trump’s emoluments. Melissa DeRosa wants to make a comeback. Steve Cortes is back on the Trump train. NOTUS, the new nonprofit news outlet from the Allbritton Journalism Institute, officially launches today. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The DNC is staffing up for the 2024 cycle, adding Alex Floyd as rapid response director and Veronica Yoo as deputy comms director and naming Rhyan Lake as deputy comms director and Nina Raneses as deputy national press secretary. Floyd previously was comms director for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelect. Yoo previously was press secretary and comms adviser to acting Labor Secretary Julie Su. — Elliot Williams is writing a new book examining the case and trial of Bernhard Goetz, who shot four Black men on an NYC subway train in 1984 and sparked national conversations about crime, race and public safety. The case also played a notable role in the early careers of Rudy Giuliani, Al Sharpton, Rupert Murdoch, Wayne LaPierre and more. Williams, a CNN legal analyst and Raben Group principal, will publish the book from Penguin Press in a deal negotiated by Howard Yoon at WME. OUT AND ABOUT — Keep Our Republic kicked off its national conference this week at the Metropolitan Club with a dinner hosted by Tim Wirth, featuring a conversation with Michael Luttig. SPOTTED: Mark Bergman, Kathy Bernier, Ben Chang, Tom Corbett, Mo Cowan, Mary Landrieu, Dick Gephardt, Dave Trott, Mike Huebsch, Mary McCord, Mark Medish, Ari Mittleman, Trevor Potter, Courtney Simmons Elwood and Suzanne Spaulding. — SPOTTED at a Motion Picture Association screening last night of “The Boy and the Heron,” co-hosted by the Japanese Embassy: Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.), Japanese Ambassador Shigeo Yamada, Janet Donovan, James Foggo, Susan Fox, David Inoue, Susan Koch, Jessica Moore, Harrison Vey, Joe Welch, Charlie Rivkin, Catherine Collins, Emily Lenzner and Urmila Venugopalan. MEDIA MOVE — Alex MacCallum is returning to CNN as EVP of digital products and services. She most recently has been chief revenue officer at WaPo. More from Axios WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Mike Pyle is leaving his role as deputy national security adviser for international economics at the NSC, the latest blow to Biden’s trade agenda, Gavin Bade scooped. … Vernon Baker is now a senior policy adviser for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries covering taxation and trade. He previously was at the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, and is a Debbie Stabenow and Mike Thompson alum. … Jude Volek is now counsel in Latham & Watkins’ white-collar defense and investigations practice. He previously was special assistant and senior associate counsel to the president in the White House Counsel’s Office. TRANSITIONS — Karoline Leavitt is now national press secretary for the Trump campaign, per 24sight’s Tom LoBianco. She previously was at his super PAC MAGA Inc. … Niambé Tomlinson is now press secretary at HUD. She previously was senior director of comms for the National Urban League, and is a Kirsten Gillibrand and House Office of Diversity and Inclusion alum. … Brandon Renz will be senior adviser to House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.). He most recently was at the American Flood Coalition, and is a Virginia Foxx alum. … … Amanda Marsh is joining Rokk Solutions as VP of digital and paid media. She most recently was senior director of brand and corporate partnerships at POLITICO. … David Lloyd is now chief policy officer at Inseparable. He previously was chief policy officer at the Kennedy Forum. … Ruta Kalvaitis Skučas is now a partner at Crowell & Moring. She most recently was a partner at K&L Gates, and is a FERC alum. WEDDING — Schuyler Ebersol, a principal at Core One Solutions, and Clementina Dávila, who runs strategic partnerships for the East Coast for Main Street Research, got married Friday in Sun Valley, Idaho. They met in Charlottesville. Pic by @seanthomasphoto … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas) … former Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) and Mike Michaud (D-Maine) … Brett Horton of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s office … Keisha Lance Bottoms … White House’s Josh Orton … Ben Jealous of the Sierra Club … Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley … RNC’s Keith Schipper … POLITICO’s Evan Gaskin and Calder McHugh … Lindsay Monaghan … Yagmur Cosar of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation … Yudhijit Bhattacharjee of National Geographic … The Dispatch’s John McCormack … Adam Radman of Americans for Tax Reform … Charlotte Fox of the International Women’s Media Foundation … Ryan Taylor of Forbes Tate Partners … Nan Powers Varoga … NBC’s Jane Timm … Samara Yudof Jones … Jonathan Serrie … former Sen. Paul Kirk (D-Mass.) … CNN’s Sam Waldenberg … Ben Nuckels … WJLA’s Dave Lucas … American Conservation Coalition’s Lily Moll … Gabrielle Mannino of Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-Maine) office … Gadi Dechter … Kyle Peterson of Boldly Go Philanthropy … SoftBank Group’s Brian Conklin … Irvin McCullough Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: For more than a century, NRF has served as the leading voice for retail and is the only organization able to bring the industry together. At NRF’s annual conference and expo, retailers from all over the world hear from the biggest changemakers, experience the latest innovations and make the relationships that matter most. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show is bigger and better than ever with 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries who will have access to 1,000 exhibitors highlighting the latest innovative solutions for retailers and 450 speakers discussing emerging trends, challenges and opportunities facing the industry. Retail leaders will connect with more than 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate The Visionary 2024 and individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more about NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
