| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → It's deadline day for businesses that hope to qualify for federal debt relief. → SABRINA MADDEAUX is a politician now. She gives Playbook the skinny. → Rogers Communications met a lot with one senior bureaucrat in 2023. That and more lobby data nuggets.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | FIRM DEADLINE — Thousands of small business owners are unlikely to have slept well last night. — Cash crunch: For many in the small biz world, today is the last chance to qualify for partial forgiveness of a government loan that helped to float them through the pandemic. We all remember the billions in federal support for businesses. The government doled out CERB checks to employees unable to work, a wage subsidy to help businesses pay their staff, and rent relief for commercial tenants with starved bank accounts. The Canada Emergency Business Account was another pillar. But many stressed-out owners saw those loans as simply more debt. Shop-owners taped "CEBA won't save us" posters to their front windows as they preferred other options. Still, takeup was enormous. The feds approved 898,271 loan applications. The terms were generous: interest-free at first, and partially forgivable if businesses could pay back a certain amount by a deadline down the road. — Payback time: Those deadlines were pushed back over the years. But Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU was clear this week. No more extensions. “We understand that things, even as the economy has bounced back from Covid, continue to be challenging, which is why we extended, twice, the repayment deadline for the CEBA loans,” Trudeau said Wednesday at a media availability in Saint John, New Brunswick. “But we are now far enough from the pandemic that we do have to wrap up pandemic programs.” — Two reprieves: The original deadline for loan repayment was Dec. 31, 2022. Ottawa eventually pushed that back a year, and more recently came up with today's deadline. — The stakes: The amount businesses need to repay in order to qualify for forgiveness depends on the size of the loan. If they took out a C$40,000 CEBA, they need to fork over C$30,000 to have the balance disappear. If they qualified for a C$60,000 loan, they have to come up with C$40,000. If they can't pull that off but can refinance their loans with their financial institutions, businesses buy themselves two more months to scrounge together enough cash. If not, they must start paying 5 percent interest on the full loan — and have until the end of 2026 to pay it off. — The scale of the struggle: The Canadian Federation of Independent Business asked its members in December about the state of their CEBA repayment. More than three-quarters had either finished repayment or were confident they'd meet today's deadline. But 22 percent of the 2,249 respondents weren't confident — a data point that could represent thousands of entrepreneurs who see buckets of red ink in their future. — The bottom line: Every deadline extension costs the government millions of dollars a day. The Parliamentary Budget Officer pegged the revenue loss for this most recent 18-day reprieve at C$52 million. That total would balloon quickly in the case of a third extension. Trudeau and Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND insist they're committed to fiscal prudence as they claw their way out of pandemic-induced debt and deficits. Those sleep-deprived business owners appear to be learning what that prudence looks like.
| | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Nunavut. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
|  Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez speaks at the Annual Meeting of World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday. | Markus Schreiber/AP | 8 a.m. (2 p.m. Davos time) Freeland appears on a panel — "No Recovery without Trade and Investment" — guided by this question: "Over the past 30 years, trade and investment have been critical drivers of prosperity. Given current geo-economic shifts and fragilities, how can we salvage these two growth engines and retool them for the future?" 1:30 p.m. Trudeau will participate in the Nunavut Lands and Resources Devolution Agreement signing ceremony with Premier P.J. AKEEAGOK and Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated president ALUKI KOTIERK. Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL will join them. 4:15 p.m. Trudeau will hold a media availability alongside Akeeagok and Kotierk. 6 p.m. Trudeau will attend a "community celebration" with Vandal. | | Talk of the town | |
SIGN UP TODAY — The First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup is a thing.
→ On Jan. 24 the first of five qualifying rounds of competition will take place starring a sold-out room of lobbyists. → Next up on Feb. 5 will feature a battle among the people who staff ministers’ offices. There are still some free tables in the room, so hit us up. Drop us a line to reserve your spot.
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
Sabrina Maddeaux is making the leap from column writing to door-knocking. | Courtesy of Sabrina Maddeaux | NOMINATION WATCH — Few aspiring politicians get to launch their first-ever run for a party nomination in the pages of a national newspaper. The editors of the National Post offered real estate in their pages to SABRINA MADDEAUX, a Post columnist until last week who left for a chance to join PIERRE POILIEVRE's roster of candidates. The 35-year-old Maddeaux is seeking the Conservative nomination in Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, a potential swing riding in the all-important Greater Toronto Area where she grew up. She's adopted the rhythm of most politicians: knock on doors, talk to voters, and sign up party members. Step 1: win the nomination. Liberals were already attacking her Wednesday. PAM DAMOFF, an MP from Oakville, Ont., scrutinized a Maddeaux column on gun control. Playbook got on the horn with Maddeaux, who talked about the jump from observer to player, why she never felt represented by any political party (until a certain populist firebrand came along), and how the Tories can win coveted 905-area seats. This transcript has been edited for length and clarity. Do you currently see yourself reflected in the House of Commons? I don't see myself reflected pretty much at all in Canadian politics. I think we're at a moment of generational change. I hope to see many other young people, millennials and Gen Z, elected. There aren't a lot of young women in Canadian politics. That's something we need more of, especially when we're looking at big issues right now, like child care, and raising families. And especially when it comes to renters, and people who have actually suffered from the affordability crisis and don't own homes, and are really wondering how they're going to fare financially in the future. A lot of our politicians right now are very financially comfortable. Perhaps that's why they don't treat things like the housing crisis with as much urgency as they should. You sound like you're talking about all parties, including the Conservatives. It's an issue across every single party right now. That's why, quite frankly, no matter who has been in power for the last little while, we haven't seen these issues taken that seriously. When did you decide to run for the nomination? Watching Pierre Poilievre's leadership campaign was inspiring to me. I had always thought there was a lot more opportunity to speak to younger Canadians. I thought that there was a lot of room on the Conservative side to solve the housing crisis and to address affordability issues and to appeal to workers that wasn't being taken advantage of. When I saw him successfully appealing to those demographics, that definitely helped me make my decision to jump into the arena. If we want to win as Conservatives in the next election, we need to win the GTA. We need to win over young, suburban women and mothers. I happen to be a part of that demographic and have friends in that demographic. What do you make of the tone of politics? It's a heated space, to say the least. I'd love to be part of bringing the heat down. It's a deterrent for people entering politics. For me, the most important thing is getting things done. If that means working with other parties, or taking on not traditionally capital-C conservative ideas, that's the most important part. The Liberals have made it very clear that they're willing to turn up the heat to 100 on wedge issues. I fully believe they're going to take advantage of the U.S. election, and try to equate what's happening in the U.S. with certain sects of Republicans to conservatism in Canada. Realistically, I think the dial is only going to turn up on that. That heat is coming from every corner of the House, including from Poilievre. The place always gets nasty after long stretches of sitting days. And then everybody goes away for a while. Summer breaks are good for everyone. Much needed. My personal communication style has always been about speaking to people no matter what their political stripe is, and about focusing more on issues than on party lines. And that's how I see myself continuing and hopefully playing that role in the Conservative Party.
| | For your radar | | OH, IT'S YOU AGAIN — Rogers Communications lobbied ÉRIC DAGENAIS at least 78 times in 2023. No public official met with any stakeholder as often as Dagenais, a senior assistant deputy minister at Innovation, Science and Economic Development, met with the titan of Canada's telecom industry. That's one finding in a massive trove of lobbying data published by the lobbying commissioner's office. The spreadsheet offers a year's worth of insight into who met whom in 2023 — and which government officials were most in demand. (Some meetings are yet to be reported, but the available data captures most interactions.) — Hot file: Take BRIAN MACKAY, director of policy and stakeholder engagement in the heritage minister's office. The records say he met 40 times with News Media Canada, a lobby group for newspapers that pushed hard for the industry-friendly Online News Act that forces certain tech giants to compensate news organizations for publishing their content. Google managed 83 meetings with various officials, including 19 with OWEN RIPLEY, a senior bureaucrat at the department. The company met MacKay 18 times. Meta was far less active on the formal lobbying front, mostly targeting a handful of senators in 14 meetings. — Another nugget: One of Volkswagen's key points of contact was none other than ISED Deputy Minister SIMON KENNEDY. The automaker, which in 2023 scored billions in potential taxpayer support for a battery plant, met the DM 25 times the same year. — Close, but no cigar: Bombardier pushed hard for an open competition to replace Canada's fleet of maritime patrol aircraft. The aerospace giant, which touted its ability to convert a business jet for surveillance and intelligence purposes, managed to secure the support of premiers FRANÇOIS LEGAULT and DOUG FORD. The feds eventually bought Boeing's P-8 Poseidon. Alas, Bombardier's 141 meetings were for naught. Boeing, which won the C$10 billion, sole-sourced contract, posted only 11 interactions with the feds. — The Top 10 most lobbied federal bodies: Nobody collectively hears from lobbyists more than the MPs and staff who toil in the House of Commons. Innovation, Science and Economic Development — the source of the lucrative Strategic Innovation Fund — placed a distant second. The budget-builders at Finance, both in the bureaucracy and the minister's office, took bronze. The rest of the most frequent lobbying targets: Environment and Climate Change; Natural Resources; Senate of Canada; Prime Minister's Office; Global Affairs; Health Canada; Employment and Social Development.
| | 2024 WATCH | | | | 
U.S. President Joe Biden greets supporters last year at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting in Philadelphia. | Matt Rourke/AP | UNSTABLE DEMOCRACY — Here's a scary stat: More than two-thirds of Americans say they'll doubt the outcome of November's presidential election. A new survey from the Angus Reid Institute found only 32 percent of respondents south of the border would accept the results no matter who wins the electoral college. The rest of the country is skeptical of either a JOE BIDEN victory, a DONALD TRUMP comeback, or both. — Confidence is lacking: The survey results reveal deep concern among Americans for the future of their own democracy. Some striking examples: → A mere 18 percent are "absolutely confident" that "necessary safeguards are in place to prevent widespread fraud and cheating" this fall. → 47 percent agree the U.S. "is on the way to becoming an authoritarian state." → 60 percent believe the "American age" — an era of "dominance on economic, political and cultural matters" — is either over or ending soon. — The upshot: Brace yourself. Here's another doozie from the pollster: "Americans are more likely than not to believe human rights are weakening in their country, elections are becoming less free and fair, power is increasingly not in the hands of the common people and the rule of law is not being applied as equitably as it once was." — The methodology: Angus Reid surveyed 1,178 Americans from Jan. 9 to Jan.12. — The emoji: This is fine.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — Nunavut is about to sign a devolution deal. LINY LAMBERINK of CBC News explains how it worked in the Yukon and N.W.T. — Top of CBC this morning: AI-powered disinformation is spreading — is Canada ready for the political impact? — The Globe's MARIEKE WALSH reports: MPs call on Ethics Commissioner to testify amid scrutiny over Trudeau’s Jamaica vacation. — Former MP JAMES CUMMING is expected to try for the nomination in his former Edmonton riding, which he lost to the Liberals in 2021, the Star’s STEPHANIE LEVITZ writes in a piece on could-be contenders. — GRAHAM FLACK, a senior federal public servant, is leaving the bureaucracy after a last stop running Treasury Board, KATHRYN MAY reports in Policy Options. — Alberta’s electrical grid is overloaded. The Public Policy Forum offers an explainer courtesy COLIN CAMPBELL. — Finally, from the Globe's MARIE WOOLF: Immigration Minister urged to crack down on international student ‘no shows’ at colleges.
| | Playbookers | |
Birthdays: Celebrating today, though probably not together: Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN and People’s Party of Canada Leader MAXIME BERNIER.
Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: A notice that Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will be fundraising for his Central Nova riding association at the Calgary Petroleum Club on Feb. 7. RBC CEO DAVE MCKAY, in Davos. Retired foreign service executive MICHAEL DANAGHER, pondering the government's propensity for political appointments to key European embassies. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients . Movers and shakers: JEAN CHAREST is leaving law firm McCarthy Tetrault to join Quebec-based TCJ. BRYAN BREGUET, an economist, college instructor, and election-watcher who gained prominence among Twitter's polling analyst crowd, is running for the B.C. Conservatives. WALIED SOLIMAN, a lawyer and co-chair of the federal Conservatives' 2021 campaign, took up the role of global chair for 2024 at Norton Rose Fulbright. Media mentions: The first edition of allAlberta, a subscription-based politics and business news website, is here. | | PROZONE | |
Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from KYLE DUGGAN: Trudeau doubles down on pandemic-loan deadline
In other headlines for Pros: — Taiwan eyes a fresh trade pact with the EU. — John Kerry’s America First climate legacy. — Inside the conservative ‘civil war’ over carbon tariffs. — 3 things to know about the methane fee. — U.S. and China look to new climate envoys. | | TRIVIA | |
Wednesday’s answer: “He is such a pompous ass that an orangutan that would flatter him could choose its own reward.” Readers had plenty of guesses. The answer: Journalist Tom Blacklock was writing about WILLIAM LYON MACKENZIE KING.
Props to JENN JEFFERYS, JIM CAMPBELL, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BOB PLAMONDON, MATT DELISLE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and MATTHEW CONWAY. Today’s question: On Aug. 15, 2019 then Premier JOE SAVIKATAAQ said: “I'm just happy that this day came. We barely got to this date.” What was he talking about? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
