Trump posts a decisive win in Iowa

Jan 16, 2024

TOP LINE

Donald Trump seized an early — and decisive — win in Iowa on Monday night.

Trump finished around 30 points over the rest of the field. His victory was called less than an hour after the caucuses convened — and before some Iowans even cast a vote. It was an unsurprising outcome, given his dominant standing within the party. And his position was only solidified on Monday night.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to a roomful of people with his family and other political leaders by his side on stage at his caucus night victory event.

Former President Donald Trump scored a decisive win in Iowa on Monday night. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

In a break from the vicious fights seen so far in the primary, Trump praised Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, and businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy, calling them “very smart” and “very capable” in his brief victory speech.

Here’s how the rest of the field shook out last night:

— DeSantis: After hours of being locked in the race for second place with Haley, DeSantis edged her out to claim the title of distant runner-up. Despite hitting all 99 counties and having big endorsements from Iowa leaders, DeSantis couldn’t close the gap between him and Trump — or separate himself distinctly from Haley.

He still, however, said the race was now clearly between two candidates.

New Hampshire might prove to be more of a challenge for DeSantis, who is polling third in the state behind Trump and Haley. The Florida governor is going after Haley by visiting her home turf today — he’s hitting South Carolina for a meet-and-greet this morning, and then will spend the rest of the day in New Hampshire.

— Haley: Haley didn’t get the conclusive victory over DeSantis her allies were hoping for. Despite that, she too said there were only two viable candidates left in the contest.

“I can safely say tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race,” the third-place finisher said.

Haley is headed into New Hampshire, where she is set to rally with Gov. Chris Sununu today, buoyed by polling showing her in second place. It’s the only state in which the Trump campaign has directly attacked her so far — attacks that are likely to ramp up over the next week.

Haley did, however, stop Trump from claiming a 99 county sweep. She just barely won Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa.

— Ramaswamy: After getting less than 10 percent on Monday, Ramaswamy dropped out and endorsed Trump. He said that he’ll be appearing with Trump this evening at the former president’s New Hampshire rally.

— The others: Texas pastor Ryan Binkley, who has poured millions of dollars into his campaign and traversed the state, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson barely registered with voters. Binkley did earn hundreds of more votes than Hutchinson, and said he’s heading to campaign in New Hampshire.

Happy Tuesday. What are your takeaways from last night? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the New Hampshire presidential primaries: 7

Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 21

Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 23

Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 39

Days until Super Tuesday: 49

Days until the Republican National Convention: 182

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 217

Days until the 2024 election: 295

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

REDISTRICTING REDUX — The Louisiana legislature kicked off its special session to redraw its congressional map on Monday. Republican Gov. Jeff Landry urged lawmakers to comply with a federal court’s ruling to draw a second majority-Black district. Only one of the six congressional districts in the state is majority-Black — and held by a Democrat. Around one-third of the state’s population is Black.

A proposed map from Republican state Sen. Glen Womack would turn LA-06, Republican Rep. Garret Graves ’ district, into the new majority-Black seat by stretching it from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge. Womack said his “primary goal” was protecting Rep. Julia Letlow, the only woman in the state’s delegation, and Speaker Mike Johnson, the Louisiana Illuminator’s Piper Hutchinson reports.

The session is set to run through Jan. 23.

MUSICAL CHAIRS — Michigan Republicans have been in turmoil over control of the party, and earlier this month tried to remove Chair Kristina Karamo. But over the weekend, Karamo supporters voted “overwhelmingly to keep her as the Michigan Republican Party's leader and to ban some of her most vocal critics from being affiliated with the party for five years,” The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger writes. Still, there were questions about if the meeting, like the one the week before held by anti-Karamo Republicans, “complied with party bylaws in conducting their competing special meetings. And the Republicans in favor of removing Karamo have already been planning to file a lawsuit.” And Malinda Pego, the former co-chair of the party who said she was acting chair after the vote to kick Karamo out, maintained that she is still acting chair.

SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — New York state Sen. Tim Kennedy is Democrats’ pick for the special election in NY-26, which Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins is vacating this year. Republicans have not yet chosen their candidate. The district is deep blue.

THE CASH DASH

Q4 TABS — PRESIDENTIAL — President Joe Biden, along with the Democratic National Committee and their joint fundraising committees, brought in a combined $97 million and had $117 million on hand.

… OH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $6.6 million and entered 2024 with $14.6 million in the bank.

… WI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised more than $3 million.

… NJ-11: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill reported a haul of $464,000 and had $1.3 million on hand. Sherrill is a potential 2025 gubernatorial candidate.

IN THE STATES — UT-Gov — Republican Utah Gov. Spencer Cox has spent “nearly half a million dollars on his 2024 reelection bid,” The Salt Lake Tribune’s Bryan Schott writes. That includes more than $250,000 on ads. He raised more than $1.5 million in 2023 and had around the same amount on hand. Cox is facing four primary challengers in June.

ON THE AIR — The FEC ruled last week that “The Good Doctor,” which Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Hill Harper is a main character in, is exempt from regulation from the commission because the program is a “fictional entertainment program” from a company that is “not owned or controlled by a political party, political committee, or candidate.” Sony sent the unusual request to the commission late last year, asking if the show was subject to the FEC’s rules because it features a federal candidate.

Why did this even come up in the first place? Federal campaign finance law has a “media exemption” to its regulations, which usually comes into play for the press. Sony’s lawyers sought confirmation that it also explicitly applied to entertainment.

AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is continuing to hit Biden over the New Hampshire primary. “I've looked for [Biden] everywhere,” Big Foot says in the ad, a reference to a 2018 spot Phillips’ campaign ran for his House race. “No Joe, but I did keep seeing this guy, this guy, Dean Phillips who's everywhere.”

… Haley’s campaign calls Biden and Trump “the two most disliked politicians in America” in a New Hampshire ad. SFA Fund Inc., the super PAC supporting her, is also running a spot in the Granite State emphasizing that Haley “will always protect Social Security.” That comes after Trump’s campaign has been running an ad in the state accusing Haley of rolling back benefits for seniors.

AZ-Sen — Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is leaning on Trump, who has endorsed her. “With President Trump, we had a secure border, but Joe Biden and his enablers Kyrsten Sinema and Ruben Gallego destroyed that security,” Lake says in an ad that her campaign says is running in Arizona during the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

MI-Sen — Republican businessperson Sandy Pensler is attacking former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for endorsing Trump’s presidential bid. The Pensler spot puts together clips of Rogers criticizing the former president.

WV-Sen — Republican Gov. Jim Justice is pushing back against accusations from Republican Rep. Alex Mooney and his allies that he is too liberal. “You know me. Do you really think I'd support Obama, Hillary or Biden?” he says in an ad, touting his Trump endorsement. The spot also calls out the Club for Growth, which supports Mooney, by name.

POLL POSITION

CA-Sen — Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) has a slight lead in the race for Senate, per a poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Schiff has 21 percent of support, followed by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter with 17 percent and Republican Steve Garvey with 13 percent. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee has 9 percent (4,470 likely voters, Jan. 4-8, MoE +/- 2.0 percentage points).

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STAFFING UP

FIRST IN SCORE — Sara Swezy and Joslin Schultz have been promoted to partner and vice president, respectively, at Democratic firm Sena Kozar Strategies. Swezy most recently led the firm’s production department, and Schultz was account director.

— Andy Crystal and Lauren Hitt will be research director and a senior national spokesperson, respectively, for Biden’s reelection campaign. Crystal is an alum of Jon Stewart and Hasan Minhaj’s TV shows, and Hitt was previously communications director for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-N.Y.).

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “Now I am well aware that Huey Long was shot over redistricting matters. And I am hopeful, and I am confident that we can dispose of this matter without you all disposing of me.” — Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry to the state legislature during its special session.

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