| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BREAKING — “Tax chiefs reach deal on child credit, business breaks,” by Brian Faler and Benjamin Guggenheim for Pros: “The chief tax writers in Congress have reached a long-awaited deal that would temporarily expand the Child Tax Credit. … The roughly $80 billion package set to be unveiled Tuesday would also undo restrictions on a trio of popular business tax breaks, as well as beef up subsidies for affordable housing and disaster assistance.”
|  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to a roomful of people at Simpson College the day before the Iowa caucuses in Indianola, Iowa, on Jan. 14, 2023. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | ABOUT LAST NIGHT — It’s hard to see how last night’s caucuses could have gone any better for DONALD TRUMP.
- He made a mockery of the pre-voting expectations chatter by romping to a record-setting Iowa victory, easily vaulting the 50% threshold and crushing his closest competitor, RON DeSANTIS, by about 30 points.
- He won all but one of the state’s 99 counties, losing only Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa, to NIKKI HALEY — by a single vote.
- He cleaned up across key GOP voter demographics, winning not only a majority of white evangelical Christians and non-college-educated voters, according to entrance polling, but also a plurality of independents and college graduates.
- The AP and other media outlets called the vote so early — about 30 minutes after caucuses began — that barely anyone from Trump’s campaign had made it to their election-night party to celebrate (h/t Meridith McGraw).
But Trump’s biggest triumph is the state of the field — where his strongest competition remains as fractured as ever — and, we won’t sugarcoat it, sounding downright delusional about their prospects. Winning 21% to Haley’s 19% was enough at least mentally to rejuvenate a DeSantis campaign that’s been on life support. Despite not winning any of the 99 counties he’d meticulously visited, we watched his team do little jigs to “Eye of the Tiger” and “Thunderstruck” at his election party in West Des Moines last night, as if they’d just won a great victory. Haley, meanwhile, was declaring the primary “a two-person race” — and she wasn’t referring to her rivalry with DeSantis for second place. The upshot is that she lost the expectations game and won’t benefit from much further consolidation heading into New Hampshire. If anyone is doing any consolidating this week, in fact, it’s Trump: The one candidate who did drop out last night was wealthy biotech entrepreneur VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who had been hugging Trump for months and promptly endorsed him. We saw Trump’s dominance on display at one suburban caucus site just outside Des Moines last night. It was about as Haley-friendly an area as anywhere in the state — she ended up winning three of the five precincts gathered there — but Trump support still permeated the event. DONALD TRUMP JR. showed up, watched Haley from the front row as she gave a speech imploring voters to turn over a new leaf, then trashed her to the crowd after she left. When a caucusgoer rose to nominate DeSantis, Trump backers shouted “bullshit!” and “liar!” when he accused the ex-president of paying off his paramours and dodging the draft.
|  Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis speaks at a campaign event at Bella Love Event Center on Jan. 11, 2024 in Cline, Iowa. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | “I want to end this primary as soon as possible,” Don Jr. told reporters there. “The RINOs want to drag it out again because they want JOE BIDEN to be president again.” What made Trump’s Iowa home run doubly impressive was the fact that other candidates far outspent and outhustled him in the Hawkeye State. Trump’s campaign might have assembled an impressive ground game, but the fact is, Trump spent a fraction of the time on the ground as other candidates and laid bare — as our friend Ben Jacobs wrote in Slate earlier this week — just how irrelevant he’s made Iowa-style retail politicking. Trump was clearly basking in the glow last night. He gave an unusually magnanimous speech, thanking his staff and supporters, sidestepping attacks on his GOP opponents and even making nice with Ramaswamy, whom he’s been bashing in recent days. The upshot is clear: “This train has left the station,” Iowa GOP strategist JIMMY CENTERS told our colleagues Adam Wren and Natalie Alison about Trump’s performance. “And absent massive consolidation of the field, by the time New Hampshire starts voting, it’s going to be really difficult to catch him.” Indeed, the remnants of the Trump-skeptical GOP came to terms last night with a last stand in the Granite State, where the top three candidates all have events scheduled today. “The [Iowa] vote … revealed weaknesses that could pose problems in a general election, so Republicans in New Hampshire should think hard if they want to gamble on another Trump run,” the WSJ editorial board warned. Added the editors at National Review, “The party has better alternatives, but, if the Iowa results are any indication, perhaps not for very long.” Good Tuesday morning from a still-chilly East Des Moines. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | |  Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks to a room of people at the James Theater in Iowa City on Jan 13, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | ABOUT THAT EARLY CALL — The decision by virtually every major media outlet to call the caucuses for Trump, barely a half-hour into the process and before many voters had cast ballots, “confused some Iowans, infuriated Mr. Trump’s rivals and prompted a fresh round of hand-wringing about the news media’s role in calling elections,” NYT’s Michael Grynbaum writes from Des Moines. He notes that the call was not entirely without precedent: “In 2020, The A.P. projected Mr. Trump as the winner after 25 minutes,” though of course he was an incumbent running unopposed. Straight from the source: “Why AP called Iowa for Trump: Race call explained,” by AP’s Robert Yoon More from NYT: “CNN actually beat The A.P. by one minute in projecting Mr. Trump as the night’s winner. The network’s projection relied in part on a so-called ‘entrance poll’ conducted by Edison Research on behalf of several major television networks. On air, JAKE TAPPER told viewers that Mr. Trump’s expected victory was ‘based on his overwhelming lead in our entrance poll of Iowa caucusgoers and some initial votes that are coming in.’” How CNN explained it: “At the time of CNN’s projection, at 7:30 p.m. CT/8:30 p.m. ET, the former president's broad lead in the entrance poll’s representative sample was statistically significant. By that time, votes had been reported in multiple counties and from several sample precincts, which also suggested a broad Trump lead.” THE LEDEALLS — POLITICO: “Trump scores an early knockout” … NYT: “Trump Scores Record Win in Iowa; DeSantis Finishes a Distant 2nd” … WaPo: “Trump scores decisive win in Iowa caucuses, DeSantis places second” … WSJ: “Having Conquered Iowa, Trump Sets Sights on New Hampshire and Haley” … AP: “Trump notches a commanding win in the Iowa caucuses as DeSantis edges Haley for second place” … Fox News: “Trump wins massive victory in Iowa, DeSantis edges Haley for second in 1st GOP presidential nominating contest” THE LOCAL WRAP — “Donald Trump spurns Iowa Caucus playbook while cruising to victory,” The Des Moines Register THE ANALYSIS — “Trump flexes and the rest of the field fades: 5 takeaways from a big night in Iowa,” by Adam Wren and Natalie Allison … “Trump leads GOP rightward march and other takeaways from the Iowa caucuses,” by AP’s Nicholas Riccardi and Brian Slodysko … “Takeaways from the Iowa caucuses: Trump benefits from fierce, distant fight for second,” by NBC’s Jonathan Allen and Henry Gomez … “The Most Detailed Maps of the Iowa Republican Caucuses,” via the NYT CLICKER — “Iowa’s Frozen Caucus, in Photos,” by Danny Wilcox Frazier for POLITICO Magazine AS FOR THE DEMOCRATS — With a contested Democratic primary next week in New Hampshire, as well, veteran Granite State operative AARON JACOBS has put together a guide to the action as part of the Write In Biden campaign: “What To Expect in 2024’s Unprecedented NH Primary” Included is useful info on the vote count and the write-in effort, as well as a Biden-friendly warning on why polls showing a big lead for the incumbent might not jibe with next Tuesday’s actual results: “First, New Hampshire Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents broadly support Joe Biden. Second, write-in campaigns are very difficult and Joe Biden’s vote total on January 23 will understate his actual support among New Hampshire Democrats and Independents.” What the Biden campaign is saying … “The Iowa results are in, and it’s clear: Donald Trump is the official frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination,” reads a Biden 2024 fundraising email sent last night, per CNN. “We need to work even harder now. If Donald Trump is our opponent, we can expect vile attacks, endless lies, and massive spending.”
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the motion to proceed to the legislative vehicle for the continuing resolution. The House will meet at noon and at noon will take up several bills. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up several bills, including the resolutions recommending holding HUNTER BIDEN in contempt of Congress. 3 things to watch …
- The federal government might have a snow day, but the Senate will still be voting tonight. They really don’t have much of a choice, given the Friday shutdown deadline, since it will take several days for the chamber to clear the new, two-step March 1/March 8 continuing resolution.
- Speaker MIKE JOHNSON raised eyebrows over the weekend by publicly dissing a purported summary of the long-running Senate border talks. JAMES LANKFORD (Okla.) and other Senate Republicans quickly pushed back, but watch closely to see how the obvious House GOP dismay colors the negotiations going forward.
- It was a rough weekend for two senior Republicans: No. 3 Senate GOP leader JOHN BARRASSO (Wyo.) underwent surgery for an abdominal obstruction, and Rep. HAL ROGERS (R-Ky.), longtime appropriator and dean of the House, was hospitalized after a car accident. With Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE also out for cancer treatments, the House majority is a bare 218 votes this week.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1:30 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff. On the trail Trump and Haley have both scheduled events in New Hampshire this evening. DeSantis is set for a campaign stop in South Carolina before heading to New Hampshire for a CNN town hall at 9 p.m.
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An election worker sorts ballots. | Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images | CAUSE FOR CONCERN — At a gathering of local election officials outside D.C., many say they’re confident they can keep the 2024 ballot safe but are scared that it won’t matter because voters won’t believe them. And they’re terrified of the backlash from those who don’t accept the results, our colleague John Sakellariadis writes this morning. The gripping fears were echoed by dozens of officials among a crowd of nearly 100 local election workers who gathered in Crystal City, Virginia, last week for an annual confab hosted by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. “The depth of anxiety aired at the conference offers a small but alarming window into the challenges facing frontline election workers,” John writes. “[C]oncerns about voter distrust and conspiracies cropped up repeatedly even though they claimed no formal place on the agenda.” More top reads:
- Union Joe is expected to receive ample union support, but it hasn’t arrived from many national unions yet in official capacities, “even as many others have endorsed the president considerably earlier than in previous cycles,” Nick Niedzwiadek writes. Unions remain reluctant “despite Biden having largely delivered on his vow to be the most labor-friendly president in decades.”
- Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) told attendees of a private event Sunday in Connecticut that he plans to meet with Biden this week in an attempt to move the president “to the center,” Fox Business’ Charles Gasparino reports. If he doesn’t, Manchin told them — and Trump is the GOP nominee — he’d consider teaming up with No Labels to mount a third-party presidential challenge.
TRUMP CARDS
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President Donald Trump speaks in the Rose Garden at the White House, Oct. 16, 2017, in Washington. | Alex Brandon/AP | BACK FOUR MORE — In his first term, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement, staffed his environmental agencies with fossil fuel lobbyists and claimed — against all scientific evidence — that the Earth’s rising temperatures will “start getting cooler.” Now, if he returns to the Oval Office, you can expect a second Trump presidency to show less restraint, Scott Waldman writes this morning. “Trump’s campaign utterances, and the policy proposals being drafted by hundreds of his supporters, point to the likelihood that his return to the White House would bring an all-out war on climate science and policies — eclipsing even his first-term efforts that brought U.S. climate action to a virtual standstill. Those could include steps that aides shrank back from taking last time, such as meddling in the findings of federal climate reports.” Meanwhile, World Bank President AJAY BANGA believes the global push to deal with climate change could survive Trump’s reelection, Zachary Warmbrodt writes. “Yes, would a particular leader in the world’s largest country, the most rich country in the world, the most powerful country in the world, would his or her views have a tangible impact? Absolutely,” Banga said. “I’m not naïve about that. I’m just saying I think the world’s in a slightly different place than it was five years ago.” More top reads:
THE WHITE HOUSE AUSTIN GOES HOME — Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN was released from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center yesterday, ending a two-week hospital stay that sparked a firestorm over his failure to notify the president and other high-ranking officials in the administration. “Now, as I continue to recuperate and perform my duties from home, I’m eager to fully recover and return as quickly as possible to the Pentagon,” Austin said in a statement. It’s unclear how long Austin will continue working remotely, WaPo’s Dan Lamothe writes. ‘SWATTING’ AT 1600 — “A fake 911 call that the White House was on fire sent emergency vehicles to the complex,” the AP’s Zeke Miller writes. “Fire engines and other emergency vehicles responded to a report just after 7 a.m. that the White House was ablaze and a person was trapped inside.” MORE POLITICS THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — OpenAI is cracking down on the nascent world of artificial intelligence in the political space, indicating that it will put up guardrails to limit campaigns from using its services to spread disinformation and falsities. The AI giant said it “wouldn’t allow people to use its tech to build applications for political campaigns and lobbying, to discourage people from voting or spread misinformation about the voting process,” WaPo’s Gerrit De Vynck writes. “OpenAI said it would also begin putting embedded watermarks — a tool to detect AI-created photographs — into images made with its DALL-E image-generator ‘early this year.’”
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The bulk carrier Gibraltar Eagle is seen off Kristiansand, Norway, June 29, 2023. Houthi rebels fired a missile striking the U.S.-owned ship on Jan. 15, just off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden, less than a day after they launched an anti-ship cruise missile toward an American destroyer in the Red Sea. | AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — News that a Houthi missile struck a U.S. ship early on Monday ratcheted up the tension in the Middle East as they increasingly turn their attention to American vessels in the region in retaliation for U.S. strikes against the Iran-backed rebels. The Houthi attacks “have rattled global markets, upended international shipping routes and become increasingly indiscriminate,” WSJ’s Benoit Faucon and Costas Paris write. The rebels “vowed again Monday to continue their campaign against U.S. and international targets in the region in response to Israel’s actions in Gaza. ‘Anyone attempting to hinder us from doing so will fail,’ a Houthi official said Monday.” How we got here: Months ago, at the U.N. General Assembly, U.S. officials were “warned about the dangers Houthi rebels posed to the Middle East before Israel’s war with Hamas but ‘they didn’t do anything,’” Yemen Maj. Gen. AIDARUS AL-ZUBAIDI told NBC’s Keir Simmons and Natasha Lebedeva at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. More top reads:
- U.S. military officers “recovered Iranian-made missile warheads and related components during a ship-boarding mission near Somalia last week that disrupted the weapons’ suspected transit to militants in Yemen but left two elite Navy SEALs lost at sea,” according to U.S. officials, per WaPo’s Alex Horton. “A massive search-and-rescue operation is ongoing in the Gulf of Aden, where the incident occurred Thursday.”
- “A missile struck in Erbil in northern Iraq and explosions were reported near the U.S. consulate and a U.S. military facility, officials said Monday. No casualties or damage have been reported, and National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said no U.S. personnel or facilities were targeted,” NBC’s Courtney Kube reports.
JUDICIARY SQUARE MARRIAGE STORY — As Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (R-N.J.) and his wife, NADINE, face federal corruption charges, their union is at the center of the latest court struggle in the case. Nadine is now “asking a Manhattan judge to sever her case from that of her husband,” NYT’s Benjamin Weiser and Tracey Tully write. Her request stated that she understood her husband might wish to testify at his trial, “and that his testimony could include revealing confidential marital communications with Ms. Menendez that Senator Menendez deems essential and material to his defense.” COMING TO SCOTUS THIS WEEK — “A Fight Over a Fishing Regulation Could Help Tear Down the Administrative State,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak in Cape May, N.J. MEDIAWATCH MAJOR MEDIA MOVE — “Baltimore Sun sold to Sinclair’s David D. Smith,” by WaPo’s Rachel Pannett: “The purchase returns the paper to local ownership for the first time in decades. It was previously owned by Alden Global Capital, an investment company with a reputation for cost-cutting and slashing staff at local newspapers. Smith told the Sun he bought it because of its focus on local news.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | IN MEMORIAM — “Jane Gephardt, wife of longtime politician and St. Louis native Dick Gephardt, dies at 81,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch SPOTTED at Cafe Milano yesterday afternoon, the first day of D.C. restaurant week: Steven Mnuchin dining with Kevin McCarthy. SPOTTED: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen volunteering at Food & Friends in D.C. yesterday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Pic … Another pic FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Marie Harf will be the new executive director for the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. She previously was executive director of external relations and marketing for the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and is a State Department, CIA and Barack Obama alum. She is also a contributor for Fox News. — Steve DeMaura and Josh Arnold have been promoted to EVPs in Targeted Victory’s public affairs practice. DeMaura previously was campaign manager for former VP Mike Pence's presidential campaign and Arnold previously was deputy chief of staff to Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.). — Austin Brown is now counsel to the Democratic National Convention Committee in Chicago. He was previously an associate in the Chicago office of Kirkland & Ellis and is a Hillary Clinton alum. TRANSITIONS — Lisa Hofflich is now an SVP at Actum. She previously was a senior adviser for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). … Tom Newhouse is launching Slash Strategy, an earned and paid media firm. He previously was VP of digital marketing at Convergence Media. … Kye Laughter is now Western North Carolina regional director for Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.). He previously was press secretary for Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.). … … Jose Leoncio is now a special assistant for the Commerce Department legislative and intergovernmental affairs office. He previously was a legislative correspondent for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and is a Bob Casey alum. … The Carbon Removal Alliance is adding Laura Hatalsky as deputy director of policy and Marcela Mulholland as deputy director of partnerships. Hatalsky is a Hub Project and Catherine Cortez Masto alum. Mulholland most recently was at the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations at the Energy Department. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Ohio) … Iulia Gheorghiu … Broadview Public Affairs’ Luke Knittig … Dan Hill … Maria Hatzikonstantinou of CRC Public Relations … Vincent Frillici … Bracewell’s Frank Maisano … Greg Polk … Matt Herrick of the International Dairy Foods Association … Kelly Weill … Debbie Berger Fox … Genevieve Wilkins of Rokk Solutions … Cameron Poursoltan … POLITICO’s Jerry Gray and Theresa Elrod … Paolo Liebl von Schirach … UPS’ Dontai Smalls ... Jackie Huelbig … Edward Cafiero of ExxonMobil … Kelley Williams … former Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta … former Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.) … Maureen McGrath … former Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allen ... Norman Podhoretz … NYT’s Sheera Frenkel … Cathryn Donaldson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Sunday’s Playbook misstated Susan Glasser’s age.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: For more than a century, NRF has served as the leading voice for retail and is the only organization able to bring the industry together. At NRF’s annual conference and expo, retailers from all over the world hear from the biggest changemakers, experience the latest innovations and make the relationships that matter most. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show is bigger and better than ever with 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries who will have access to 1,000 exhibitors highlighting the latest innovative solutions for retailers and 450 speakers discussing emerging trends, challenges and opportunities facing the industry. Retail leaders will connect with more than 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate The Visionary 2024 and individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more about NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
