What Trump's big win in Iowa means

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Here's what's on tap today:

UP FIRST: The big takeaways from Iowa

CATCH UP: A new president in Taiwan

—Li Zhou, senior reporter

UP FIRST

What we learned in Iowa

Ecuadorian troops patrol in Quito, Ecuador, Jan. 9, 2024. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Tuesday declared ''internal armed conflict'' and mobilized the army to combat organized crime linked to drug trafficking, following an escalation in violence in the South American country.

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The Iowa caucuses officially kicked off the Republican presidential primary on Monday and confirmed what the polls have long been saying: that the nomination is former President Donald Trump's to lose.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Trump had secured 51 percent of the vote, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was in second with 21 percent and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was in third with 19 percent.

The results underscore just how firm a grip Trump continues to have on the Republican Party and suggest that Haley and DeSantis are currently vying for second place.

The upcoming New Hampshire primary will mark the latest test of how enduring Trump's lead still is and whether Haley will be able to make any game-changing inroads there.

Trump opens strong: Iowa reaffirmed Trump's dominance and signaled that many Republican voters remain devoted to him despite his multiple criminal indictments, civil lawsuits, and unfounded claims about the 2020 election being stolen. Although roughly 49 percent of voters picked an alternative candidate, some Iowa and New Hampshire backers of DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Rameswamy have also said that Trump is their second choice.
Disappointment for DeSantis: Once considered the most formidable competitor to Trump, the Florida governor lagged by roughly 30 points on Monday. DeSantis's campaign has floundered due to a number of awkward campaign appearances, a confusing feud with Disney, and controversial policy stances on issues like abortion. As Vox's Zack Beauchamp explains, DeSantis seems to have "completely misread what the GOP electorate wanted."
A narrowing field: Following the caucuses and a distant fourth-place finish, Ramaswamy announced that he is dropping out. He had pitched himself as an outsider candidate and an "anti-woke" warrior who praised Trump at every turn. The main candidates that remain are Trump, Haley, and DeSantis.
What to watch in New Hampshire: The next primary race is coming up quickly on January 23. This is the early state in which Haley polls closest to Trump — trailing by about 13 points — and its contest will reveal if she's able to make a dent in his lead at all.

Vox's Andrew Prokop has more on the winners and losers from the caucuses, here.

CATCH UP

Taiwan picks a new president

A Palestinian man dressed in all black stands in the ruins of a bombed room, pointing towards the missing exterior walls; all around him are pieces of broken household goods.

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On Saturday, Taiwan chose a new president, electing Lai Ching-te, a leader who has emphasized that he'll "safeguard Taiwan's democratic system and its sovereignty," Vox's Ellen Ioanes reports.

Lai — the head of the Democratic Progressive Party — won with just over 40 percent of the vote and will ensure the party continues its control of Taiwan's presidency for a third term.

As Ellen writes, a central question of the election was "how each candidate will manage relations with China, which claims Taiwan as its own." Lai's success and past comments in favor of independence suggest that Taiwan is unlikely to halt efforts to bolster its own diplomatic ties and strengthen its democracy.

"The Chinese Communist Party has harbored the hope that Taiwan ... will unify with the mainland and accept [its] rule," Ellen explains. "Lai's win means that goal — at least by peaceful means, under the island's own volition — is still quite far away, if it is to happen at all."

VERBATIM

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—Julianne Escobedo Shepherd, a contributing writer at Pitchfork, on 50 Cent's influence. [Vox]

AROUND THE WEB

Trump's in court, again: Trump attended jury selection for a civil case in New York on Monday. As part of the case, the jury will decide how much in damages he owes writer E. Jean Carroll after a judge found him liable for defamation against her. [NBC News]
A possible tax deal: A bipartisan team of House and Senate lawmakers have reached a tax deal that includes another expansion of the child tax credit and tax breaks for businesses. There's uncertainty, however, about whether it will be able to pass. [NYT]
Iran strikes targets in Iraq: Iran conducted missile attacks on Irbil, a city in northern Iraq, alleging that they were aiming at Israeli "spy headquarters." Iraq says no spying infrastructure existed. [BBC]