3 big factors that will shape the McConnell succession

Feb 28, 2024

Presented by American Chemistry Council

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) walks to a vote at the U.S. Capitol.

This is the first time in almost two decades that Senate Republicans will be choosing a new face to lead them. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE THREE FACTORS THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MCCONNELL’S SUCCESSION

The battle to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader can’t be separated from Republicans’ solid prospects of winning control of the chamber in November – so solid that whoever succeeds him could easily become the majority leader come January.

This is also, given McConnell’s historic run atop the conference, the first time in almost two decades that Senate Republicans will be choosing a new face to lead them.

You’re going to hear a lot about the race over the next nine months, but most of the McConnell succession drama will focus on three main factors:

Dear John(s): We expect Minority Whip John Thune (S.D.), Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.) and former whip John Cornyn (Texas), who previously served as whip, to all run for leader.

But Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said on Wednesday that he expects at least 8-10 names to run for the position – which could lead to a majorly split ballot in a conference of roughly 50 people.

Expect a lot of attention on conservative McConnell critics in particular, as they figure out whether they want a new potential standard-bearer in the mix beyond the John trio.

The Trump factor: Donald Trump played a pivotal role in the speaker’s race, so it’s inevitable that the former president will try to have a say in whoever replaces McConnell now that he’s the presumptive nominee. Needless to say, McConnell and Trump haven’t had the smoothest relationship.

“It'd be great, because I think Trump will win, to have a leader who can work well with the next Republican president. And I think we've got a lot of good people in the conference,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), declining to endorse a specific candidate yet.

Trump has not yet weighed in on McConnell’s announcement but senators are expecting him to do so.

“The Senate will decide who our leaders are. But most certainly this is a political position,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told reporters when asked about Trump’s influence. “Clearly, you can't walk away from outside forces, but I think individual members will make up their own minds.”

The maverick factor: Republican senators have always been more independent than their House counterparts when it comes to policy decisions – and most senators see a potential future president when they look in the mirror.

So expect some independent-minded moves when the leadership race heats up.

“There's not a single senator [who] you could put in that spot, and everybody would agree with them,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told reporters Wednesday. “The difference between today and 20 years ago is, people say it a lot quicker and it gets reported a lot faster."

Some senators, like Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), have made clear they want to see a successor who isn’t leveraging the position to step into a higher office.

"They better be doing it for the right reasons, not for their own political advancement,” Murkowski said. “McConnell never did any of this for his own political advancement."

So far, Sen. Cynthia Lummis threw her support behind her fellow Wyomingite Barrasso and Rounds threw his support behind his fellow South Dakotan Thune. But it’s safe to say that most of the conference is still undecided.

The unknown factors: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who is close to McConnell, is considering running for a leadership position in the GOP amid the coming shuffle and is being encouraged to look at a bid, said a person familiar with Cotton’s thinking. But his future likely lies lower in the leadership rankings than the No. 1 spot.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is a potential dark horse leader candidate, though that potential is almost completely dependent on a strong performance in November in taking back the Senate.

When considering the unknowns of the race, look to the group who voted against McConnell during his last leadership contest. McConnell quashed a challenge from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) – who had support from Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), retiring Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to name a few.

Rick Scott did not rule out running for the top job on Wednesday.

In other words, as Cruz signaled on Wednesday, expect the unexpected: "The conversations will continue. I expect, right up until, and even after, the election in November.”

— Daniella Diaz, with assists from Burgess Everrett, Ursula Perano and Anthony Adragna

A message from American Chemistry Council:

America is under assault and Congress has left the door open to our adversaries. The constant threat to national security is real and shows no signs of diminishing. The country lost a critical tool in the fight against terrorism when Congress allowed the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program to expire. Communities and companies should not be forced to go it alone. Congress must join the fight and act before terrorists do. Restore CFATS now!

QUICK NOTE ON SPENDING: We have a funding deal, though still not critical legislative text. It should avert a government shutdown this week, punting shutdown deadlines to March 8 and 22.

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Feb. 28, where we could use a glass of wine after quite literally running around the Capitol all day.

INSIDE THE HOUSE GOP’S HUNTER INTERVIEW

Hunter Biden kicked off a nearly seven-hour long deposition with lawmakers on Wednesday by delivering a blistering rebuke of the House GOP’s sweeping impeachment inquiry into his father, President Joe Biden.

That was expected, of course. But we got a few other tidbits from the closed-door interview to hold you over, before lawmakers release a full transcript in the coming days (some members predicted within 24 hours).

Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) told reporters that the inquiry will now move to its “next phase,” including a public hearing with Hunter Biden. Neither Biden nor his attorney responded to questions after the deposition about if they would agree to a public hearing — something they had spent weeks demanding before the private testimony.
Hunter raised foreign investments received by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as Republicans quizzed him on his own business deals, according to Democratic lawmakers in the room. One of them, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), said that some Republicans nodded or audibly responded in the affirmative when Hunter Biden asked if they had a problem with those investments.
Republicans accused Hunter Biden of contradicting previous witnesses, not recalling specific instances or sidestepping questions, though they said he didn’t plead the Fifth. Democrats, meanwhile, basically declared victory on Wednesday even as the inquiry continues. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) pulled out his phone during a break from the interview to declare the “time of death” of the investigation.

— Jordain Carney

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WHEN HOUSE REPUBLICANS TRIED TO RESTRICT IVF FOR VETS

As Republicans scramble to clarify their support for in-vitro fertilization after the Alabama Supreme Court ruling, they have to confront an uncomfortable reality: Their party has a history of trying to restrict access.

Back in 2016, Republicans backed a proposal from Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) to bar the destruction of viable human embryos in federal facilities. The House’s Labor and Health Appropriations subcommittee backed the Harris proposal 29-21, despite outcry from some fellow GOP members, including former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.). It was on track to effectively prevent servicemembers and injured veterans from using frozen embryos for IVF.

“I remember this like it was yesterday,” Dent said in an interview. “I said, at the time, his amendment would honestly be problematic and there would be consequences.”

Back then, Congress was poised to allow the VA to provide IVF services for the first time, though active-duty soldiers and other federal employees already had access to it. Conservative opposition was rooted in the idea that discarding unused embryos is effectively abortion. Ultimately, Harris’ attempt was not successful.

Harris billed the move at the time as a simple extension of the “Dickey-Wicker policy,” which prohibits the use of federal funds to create, for research purposes, human embryos that are later destroyed. But IVF advocates, including Dent, argued that military families trying to have children were not research subjects.

“Obviously, post-Roe, there are real human consequences since this matter has been turned over to the states,” Dent said. “Clearly families … are experiencing this in real time.”

Dent dishes: The more moderate Dent, catching up with us Wednesday, didn’t hold back from criticizing his party and former colleagues.

“Republicans are in a very defensive position because they’re on the wrong side of public opinion,” he said, adding: “The GOP put themselves in a really difficult box.”

— Katherine Tully-McManus and Daniella Diaz

HUDDLE HOTDISH

AI isn’t coming f or all of our jobs yet.

Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Colo.) son was arrested and faces 22 charges.

There was an unfortunately timed Senate subway breakdown.

McConnell’s first C-SPAN appearance included him saying the words “making love” in a joke about the French.

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QUICK LINKS

Capitol Police hires prosecutor to tackle lawmaker threats, from Chris Marquette at CQ Roll Call

Jeffries Suggests Democrats Would Save Johnson From Removal Over Ukraine, from Catie Edmondson at The New York Times

Senate Democrats urge Israeli ambassador to allow greater humanitarian aid for Palestinians, from Anthony Adragna

As McConnell steps down, Ukraine loses a powerful GOP mega booster, from Connor O’Brien

TRANSITIONS

Matt Fried will be Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (D-N.Y.) chief of staff. He was previously deputy chief of staff for Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.).

Alyson Sincavage is joining Cisco as director of government affairs. She most recently was chief counsel and staff director for the Senate Judiciary Border Security Subcommittee Dems.

Jen Adler, formerly communications director for the House Transportation Committee Democrats, now heads NTSB’s Office of Safety Recommendations and Communications.

Josh Altman is now team chief for policy for Office of the Secretary of Defense public affairs. He was last the national security adviser for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

A message from American Chemistry Council:

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are in session.

A message from American Chemistry Council:

Chemicals are critical to every U.S. industry and to a strong supply chain. From farms to factories – chemicals are essential for growing food, protecting the safety of our water supply, making life-saving medicines and equipment, and producing energy. The Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program was created specifically to address cyber and physical threats to the chemical sector. It is the only program that allows companies to vet personnel against the FBI terrorist screening database.

Congress allowed CFATS to expire, and for the first time in nearly two decades America is without a national chemical security program. According to DHS approximately 9,000 individuals were typically screened each month, which means more than 40,000 people have not been vetted for terrorist ties since CFATS expired. We can’t afford to go another day with our guard down. Congress must do its job and pass legislation to restore CFATS now!

THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL

10 a.m. Rep. Rashida Tlaib will host a press conference on the humanitarian crisis in Rafah. (House Triangle)

1 p.m. Rep. Bruce Westerman, chair of the Natural Resources Committee, as well as members of the committee, are hosting a press conference to unveil legislation conserving wildlife habitat. (HVC Studio A)

2:30 p.m. The House Education and Workforce Committee will hold a bipartisan roundtable with Jewish students to discuss antisemitism at postsecondary institutions. (390 CHOB)

TRIVIA

TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Benjamin Wainer correctly answered that the Speaker of the House who took the time to gavel the session to a stop, say, "The House stands recessed," and only then ducked behind a column during an attack led by Lolita Lebrón was Joseph William Martin Jr.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Benjamin: Which President was described in a campaign song as, “Old enough to know, and young enough to do?”

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.